NPB infielder Kazuma Okamoto will be posted for MLB clubs this offseason, according to an announcement made by the Yomiuri Giants and Okamoto himself during a press conference earlier today. Yahoo Sports Japan (Japanese language link) was among the outlets to report on the news, which comes on the heels of reporting last month that Okamoto was expected to be posted this winter.
Despite that previous reporting, the 29-year-old Okamoto’s was not viewed as a certain thing due in part to Yomiuri’s history of being reluctant to allow their star players to utilize the posting system. Okamoto certainly fits that description, seeing as he’s the club’s captain and a six-time All-Star with two Gold Gloves and three NPB home run titles to his name. He was limited to just 69 Central League games this year due to an elbow injury caused by a collision at first base, but in the 293 trips to the plate he managed to take he raked to the tune of a .327/.416/.598 slash line. He managed 15 homers, 21 doubles, and a triple in less than half a full season’s work with identical 11.3% strikeout and walk rates.
It’s that blend of power and discipline that has led teams to scout Okamoto for the past several years in anticipation of his eventual move stateside. Since his rookie age-22 season back in 2018, Okamoto has hit 274 home runs in 1,039 Central League games. He’s homered once every 16.2 plate appearances in that eight-year stretch with a 17.7% strikeout rate and a walk rate of 10.8%. It’s certainly an impressive resume, and his career .277/.361/.521 slash line in NPB compares quite favorably to the NPB slash lines of current big league sluggers Shohei Ohtani (.286/.358/.500) and Seiya Suzuki (.315/.414/.570). That Suzuki was a better hitter in NPB than Ohtani was should demonstrate the fact that NPB stats don’t always perfectly reflect how a player will perform in the majors.
Much of that is due to the lack of high-end velocity in NPB, which creates uncertainty about how hitters will handle the improved velocity in the majors. Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs notes that Okamoto’s numbers against heaters greater than 94 mph “fall off a cliff,” which could be a problem seeing as the average four-seam fastball velocity in MLB this season was 94.4 mph. Of course, some of those struggles could simply be due to limited exposure; Longenhagen notes that Okamoto saw only around 200 fastballs at that velocity all season last year. It’s entirely possible his numbers could improve against high-end velocity with more experience facing those types of pitchers, but it’s nonetheless a concern interested clubs will need to consider as they weigh a pursuit of Okamoto’s services.
Another consideration is where Okamoto will be able to play. He’s played around 60% of his NPB games at third base, but has also received plenty of time at first base with an increased workload at that position in recent years plus occasional starts in the outfield corners. One of the corner infield spots seems most likely to be his defensive home in the majors, and while it’s certainly possible there are MLB clubs that view Okamoto as a capable third baseman, Jeff Passan of ESPN suggests that at least some teams view him as better suited for first base, where he’s drawn rave reviews defensively for his work in Japan.
Now that Okamoto is poised to be posted, he’s sure to draw significant multi-year interest in the majors. He’ll face competition from fellow NPB corner infielder Munetaka Murakami in the posting market this winter, who is four years younger than Okamoto with a .270/.394/.557 NPB slash line that’s even more impressive. In terms of stateside players, the biggest names on the first base market are Pete Alonso, Josh Naylor, and Luis Arraez while the third base market is headlined by Alex Bregman and Eugenio Suarez. The Mets, Red Sox, Mariners, Angels, and Padres are among the teams who need help at at least one corner infield spot this winter, while teams like the Diamondbacks, Cubs, Phillies, and Tigers could also make sense depending on how the rest of their roster decisions play out.
Okamoto won’t be officially posted for some time yet, as that process typically begins between late November and mid December. Once he’s been posted, MLB teams will have 45 days to negotiate a contract with Okamoto. The club that ultimately lands him with owe the Yomiuri Giants a posting fee on top of Okamoto’s contract. That fee adds up to 20% of the first $25MM spent on Okamoto, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of any spending over $50MM. As an example, when the Cubs signed Suzuki during the 2021-22 offseason, the posting fee on that $85MM deal came in at roughly $14.6MM. The posting fee on Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s $325MM contract with the Dodgers, meanwhile, came in at approximately $50.6MM.
Hearing he’s already on a plane to Toronto.
What position will he play for the Dodgers?
The “Okamoto” rule will be established this off-season. It states that if your bat boy is an established Japanese star, then they can be recognized and treated as an additional infielder during play with no 40 man roster move necessary.
With the caveat that they must sign with the Dodgers.
Actually, might not go to Dodgers, theyll get Murakami for 3rd, Freeman still at 1st. Might be a chance for someone else to steal him….lol
This is Max Muncy erasure
Eventually when he has to travel to Toronto for the World Series. Jays already have a log jam on the infield for quite some time.
Is it me, or does his stats look like he’s going downhill? Pretty solid years behind last season.
Thought the same. Peaked already.
He missed time last season due to the injury, as stated in the article. But he is 29 so you’d be getting mostly his 30’s which is never ideal.
@rememberthecoop
The Dodgers got some washed up Japanese guy in his 30s and gave him $700M. I guess they preferred an older guy to pay him big money.
makes a lot of sense for the Rangers to be involved.
The replacement for Alonso for the Mets!
It is amazing to me that people STILL think they are being clever by sarcastically predicting that EVERY good free agent, or every good Asian free agent, will be signed by the Dodgers. Even if you were right–you aren’t–don’t you realize how unoriginal your comment is?
It’s called a meme. It isn’t supposed to be original.
Repetitive and boring is a feature not a bug….
I remember when people were saying this about Sasaki.
@Alan53
What are you talking about? He’ll be a Marlin by November.
A 1B that can’t hit fastballs is going to be in demand?
I wouldn’t say Suzuki was a better hitter in JPL than Ohtani, Suzuki just had more prime years in the JPL. If you look at just 18-21, Shohei was arguably the better performer
Love the BB/K rate numbers, wouldn’t mind him at 3B/1B on the Mets
Yoshi Tsutsugo had similar numbers in Japan to Okamoto. Pass
@Troy Percival’s iPad
Okamoto’s K-rate is 10 percentage points less than what Tsutsugo had.
I enjoy the narrative that every Japanese players path goes through the Dodgers first.
It only serves to reinforce the idea other teams have to overpay for their services. If the Dodgers don’t want them, that is.
Always curious why my Rockies never jump in foreign players, especially ones whose market probably won’t have too many suitors.
I mean what could it hurt to take some chances on NPB or KBO pitchers and position players. Not like itll subtract from the young up and coming phenoms we’ve had all these years
Really surprised that the Giants let him go. Normally, they don’t do that but I guess it’s more lucrative to take money from the MLB and become a default minor league development team than not at all. Anyway, good to see the NPB turning into another minor league for MLB.