The Opener

As the calendar flips to December, here’s three things we’re keeping an eye on around baseball:

 1. Catcher market heating up?

It’s not a particularly deep catching market in free agency this year, with Willson Contreras and Christian Vazquez headlining, but the trade market offers some strong options for catcher-hungry teams. Yesterday, it was reported that the Astros are planning to meet with Contreras at the Winter Meetings, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, and Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports that the Guardians are showing continued interest in Oakland catcher Sean Murphy, who appears highly likely to be dealt. His three years of remaining club control and strong offensive and defensive prowess makes him a sought-after target, and a robust market has developed. Morosi suggested a deal could be done during the Winter Meetings, and teams that miss out on Murphy could quickly pivot to one of the top free agents, while the Blue Jays are expected to deal one of Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk or Gabriel Moreno this winter.

2. Will Aaron Judge’s free agency come to an end at the Winter Meetings?

It’s beginning to look like it might. According to Jeff Passan of ESPN, the Yankees have tabled an offer to Judge worth around $300MM over eight years. It’s not known how Judge’s camp has reacted to that, or what any other offers look like, but the report was notable for one other thing. Passan suggested that Judge’s free agency is primed to wrap up within the Winter Meetings, so in a week’s time we could know if Judge will be in pinstripes in 2023, heading to the Bay Area, or to some other team. In many ways, it makes sense that Judge would be the first major free agent to sign. Both the Yankees and Giants will likely be aggressive in other areas if they miss out on Judge. Agents for other top free agents are certainly aware of this and so it makes sense that Judge is holding up the top end of the market.

3. When will the first shortstop come off the board?

It almost certainly depends on what happens with Judge. If, say, the Yankees watch Judge sign in San Francisco, they could quickly pivot and jump into the market for Trea Turner or Carlos Correa. So if you’re Turner’s agent, it makes sense to wait until Judge is gone and see if the deep-pocketed Yankees or Giants are willing to jump in and drive your client’s price up further. Passan reports that the market for the shortstops is already heating up. The Twins are making a strong push to re-sign Correa, Turner has a wide range of suitors, so too are Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson. The offseason has been slow to this point as teams have spent the past month laying groundwork, but it certainly seems like the next week could be busy and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see one of the four big name shortstops settle on a home for 2023 and beyond.

As the Winter Meetings approach, here’s what we’ll be keeping an eye on around baseball today:

1. The top of the starting pitching market

Justin Verlander, Jacob deGrom and Carlos Rodon sit atop the free agent list for starting pitching this winter. A combination of injury history and age makes the contract for each tricky to predict, but we are seeing markets emerge for each. It was revealed yesterday that the Rays had been in touch with deGrom, joining the Yankees, Mets and Rangers as teams with confirmed interest. Rodon had a Zoom meeting with the Mets yesterday, and the Dodgers, Twins, Yankees, Rangers and Giants have all shown interest in the lefty this winter. Verlander is coming off a Cy Young-winning season and has been linked to the Dodgers, Mets and Yankees, as well as a return to Houston. As teams meet with these players, it might not be long before things ramp up and given the similar teams being linked to each option, once one name comes off the board the others might follow quickly.

2. Which players might come off the board before the Winter Meetings begin?

The Winter Meetings will kick off Sunday in San Diego  for the first time since 2019, and the widespread expectation is that they’ll spur some action both on the free agent and trade markets (as is commonplace). That said, a handful of recognizable names could come off the board even before Sunday evening. WEEI’s Rob Bradford reported this week that former Red Sox hurlers Nathan Eovaldi and Matt Strahm have strong enough markets that a deal could materialize this week. Meanwhile, the Pirates have had talks with Kyle Gibson, The Athletic’s Rob Biertempfel reported, and his market has been “heating up,” per Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Gibson’s free agency wrapped up quickly last time he was on the market, when he signed just before Thanksgiving, so it stands to reason that he could be keen on another short stay on the market rather than a drawn-out process. Meanwhile, the Pirates have already signed Carlos Santana, acquired Ji-Man Choi and traded Kevin Newman, so they’ve shown a willingness to make some early deals themselves.

3. Chat with Anthony Franco today at 5pm CT

With the Winter Meetings just around the corner and the bulk of the market’s most notable free agents and trade targets yet to find new homes, many of the biggest storylines of the offseason have yet to truly unfold. There’s plenty to talk about, and MLBTR’s Anthony Franco will host a live chat taking your questions at 5pm CT. You can leave a question here in advance, and be sure to use this link to join and participate live if you’re able!

As the offseason continues to chug along, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on throughout baseball today:

1. Will Any Deals Get Closed Before The Holiday?

The days leading up to Thanksgiving have, in previous offseasons, seen a small spike in activity, as free agents who are looking to have their new team settled ahead of the holidays try to push deals across the finish line. In the past few offseasons, Steven Matz, Anthony DeSclafani, Kendall Graveman, Aaron Loup, Kyle Gibson, Drew Pomeranz, Yan Gomes and Charlie Morton have all agreed to terms within 48 hours of Thanksgiving. This can apply to the trade market as well, as the Angels’ acquisition of Hunter Renfroe just last night shows. In addition to last night’s deal, recent offseasons have seen the Rockies and Reds connect on a swap of relievers and the Padres and Brewers complete a four-player trade involving all big leaguers, among other smaller trade agreements.

2. Bryce Harper’s Surgery Is Today

Recently extended Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski announced last week that star outfielder Bryce Harper will undergo surgery on his elbow today to repair a damaged ulnar collateral ligament. This is of particular note because the team and doctors alike won’t be certain whether Harper requires a full ligament replacement (Tommy John surgery) or an internal brace procedure until he actually goes under the knife, leaving his timetable for return uncertain to this point. Once today’s procedure is complete, there will be far more clarity on how much time Harper can be expected to miss in 2023.

3. A Few MLBTR Features

The final two Offseason Chats will be held today, putting the finishing touches on MLBTR’s Offseason Outlook series. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco will be hosting a team-specific chat for the reigning World Series champion Astros at 11am CT today, while Steve Adams will hosting an A’s-specific chat later in the day at 2pm CT. Astros fans can click here to leave a question for Anthony in advance and, in the meantime, check out the Astros’ Offseason Outlook. A’s fans can leave a question in advance here and go back through Oakland’s Offseason Outlook for a refresher, if you like. Regardless of which club you follow, if you’re looking ahead to the meat of your team’s offseason, it’s also worth noting that our 2022-23 MLB Free Agent List has been updated to include last week’s wave of non-tendered players. You can check that out for a comprehensive look at who’s available on a position-by-position basis. (Note: the incorrect link to the free agent list has been updated; apologies on the error)

As the offseason continues to roll along, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on today:

1. Judge To Meet With Giants

Later today, top free agent Aaron Judge will meet with Giants brass in San Francisco. This marks the first meeting Judge has been reported to be taking with a team besides the Yankees, who made Judge a new offer last week. Rumors have long swirled that the Giants would be aggressive with their financial might this offseason, and team officials have done little to dissuade that thinking with their public comments. Their pursuit of Judge, the offseason’s premier free agent who grew up a Giants fan in the area, is no surprise. In addition to the Yankees, the Giants are likely to face competition for Judge from their divisional rival Dodgers, whose interest in Judge has been reported occasionally throughout the offseason thus far.

2. Cody Bellinger’s Market Developing

Despite being non-tendered by the Dodgers on Friday, former NL MVP Cody Bellinger has found a fairly strong market for himself due to this offseason’s dearth of available center fielders. He’s fielded calls from teams since the hour after his non-tender, and while those conversations have supposedly included multi-year interest, his preference is toward a one-year pact. The Blue Jays, Giants, and Cubs are among the teams who have been connected to Bellinger, and it seems likely plenty more will arise over the course of his free agency. Beyond Bellinger, Kevin Kiermaier (who’s recovering from hip surgery) and top free-agent center fielder Brandon Nimmo, there aren’t many viable regulars on this year’s free-agent market.

3. Offseason Outlooks Set To Wrap Up

The Offseason Outlook series is one of MLBTR’s biggest offseason projects, and after covering the Giants and the Phillies yesterday, the series will wrap with coverage of the Astros later today. While that will mark the end of Offseason Outlook posts for the year, be sure to keep an eye out for the team-focused Offseason Outlook chats, which will also be completed shortly. In addition to the Astros, A’s and Rangers fans can look forward to an Offseason Chat over the next couple days. MLBTR’s Steve Adams will host a Rangers-specific chat today at 1pm CT. You can submit an early question here  and also use that link to join the chat once it’s underway (and to read the transcript once it’s completed). Fans of other teams can check out previous Offseason Outlook posts and team-specific chats here.