The NFL’s franchise tag deadline has passed, and while stars like Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, and Justin Houston received tags from their respective teams, a number of standout players are poised to hit the open market a week from today. Defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, safety Devin McCourty, and wideouts Jeremy Maclin and Randall Cobb are among the players who will be free to negotiate with other teams as of Saturday and to sign with new clubs next Tuesday. To prepare for the free agent madness, be sure to check out our breakdown of the market by position, and keep an eye on ProFootballRumors.com for all the latest updates.
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Understanding Pre-Arbitration Salaries
While the 2014-15 arbitration process is complete — final results can be found here — you may have noticed that agreements between non-free agent players and teams are still being reported and announced. These deals are being arrived at with players who own 40-man spots but remain shy of the service requirements to reach arbitration eligibility. (I.e., they have less than three years of service and did not qualify as Super Two players.)
Generally, MLBTR does not cover these deals. Not only are there are dozens per team, but they have minimal bearing on the broader market. The reason is simple: the collective bargaining agreement stipulates that teams may simply renew pre-arb players at the league minimum (or any other desired level) if agreement on a price cannot be reached, leaving no obligation for teams to pay more and affording scarcely any leverage to the player. In other words, there is not much to see or think about.
But, as with most things, there are exceptions. Last February, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes reported that the Rockies had drawn the ire of some agents for only spending a few thousand dollars above the minimum. MLBTR’s Zach Links proceeded to undertake a deep dive on the subject, explaining how different teams use varying types of formulas to arrive at pre-arb salaries — many of which are informed by some combination of service time, playing time, and performance.
Sometimes teams choose to go well above the required levels of pay. The two most notable examples — Ryan Howard’s final pre-arb salary of $900K and Mike Trout’s $1MM pact last year — were followed by extensions. It is difficult to know whether those shows of good faith helped pave the way to longer-term deals, but the teams involved (the Phillies and Angels, respectively) obviously were motivated to go above and beyond for players who were coming off of MVP or MVP-type seasons.
In some cases, players and teams are unable to agree upon a deal, leading the team to simply renew the player at its desired value. This is in large part a symbolic matter, though as Zach and fellow MLBTR writer Steve Adams learned last year, the Astros have taken a $5K deduction (as against the team’s offer) when renewing pre-arb players who declined to reach agreement at the team’s price.
Inability to agree upon a price is but one aspect of a team’s relationship with a player, of course, but tension in the pre-arb process is certainly one possible outcome. Interestingly, Trout had his contract renewed without agreement in the season before his huge pre-arb payday, with his agent blasting the team at the time. The sides were ultimately able to come together on a nine-figure deal, with the prior years’ salaries constituting an element of the jockeying in the lead-up to that contract.
It remains to be seen whether this year will feature any particularly interesting cases. But it is worth noting that several of 2014’s top performers — Corey Kluber of the Indians, Anthony Rendon of the Nationals, and Sonny Gray of the Athletics come to mind — remain shy of arbitration eligibility.
Quick Hits: Clark, Olivera, Guerrier, Moncada
Commissioner Rob Manfred recently said that he could envision an MLB franchise based in Mexico one day. For his part, MLBPA president Clark sounds open-minded to the concept, Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports writes. “Anytime the industry considers growing, it lends itself to how well the industry is doing,” Clark said. “As such, players are interested in having those conversations, interested as to what it might look like. I would say players would be engaged and interested on any of those considerations.” Here’s more from around the majors..
- Cuban infielder Hector Olivera has taken physicals for a number of teams in recent weeks, including the Dodgers, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). MLB has yet to declare Olivera a free agent, but teams want to be prepared for when that moment occurs (link).
- Former Twins reliever Matt Guerrier, who elected free agency in July, is still hoping to pitch in 2015, according to Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press (on Twitter). Meanwhile, the Twins have not shown interest in a reunion with the 36-year-old. The veteran righty produced a solid 3.86 ERA in 28 innings last season but struck out just 3.9 batters per nine. For his career, Guerrier owns a 3.52 ERA with 5.9 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9.
- Yoan Moncada’s contract with the Red Sox reveals flaws in baseball’s system, Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal writes. The deal reveals the true market value for high-end young players and at this point, it would be difficult for MLB to spin an international draft as anything but an attempt to suppress costs for foreign amateurs.
- Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com wonders if the Moncada signing will push MLB even closer to an international draft.
Quick Hits: Cuba, Tomas, McCutchen
MLBPA president Tony Clark is open to seeing Cuba host spring training games, writes Tom Withers of the Denver Post. Details could not be arranged in time for this season. Cuba was once the home of the Reds’ Triple-A affiliate, the Havana Sugar Kings. Clark says the players understand the role baseball could play in the healing process between the United States and Cuba.
- The Diamondbacks will have Yasmany Tomas split time between third base and the outfield this spring, writes Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com. The club is still expressing optimism about his ability to handle third base, although manager Chip Hale acknowledged it’s a work in progress. Instead, the move is designed to maximize Tomas’ time against competitive pitching. Said Hale, “we’ve told Tomas that if there’s a day when he is not going to play third, we’re going to put him in the outfield just to get at-bats.“
- The Pirates should consider another contract extension for Andrew McCutchen, but it’s not a slam dunk, writes Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. McCutchen is under contract for another four seasons through age 31. Sawchik compares McCutchen to Rays third baseman Evan Longoria. He was also four years from free agency when he signed a nine-figure extension to remain with the Rays through the 2022 season. A similar extension for McCutchen is liable to run about $22MM to $25MM per season. As a small market club, it’s reasonable to wonder if the Pirates should pay premium dollars for post-prime seasons.
Glenn Flesig On Tommy John Incidence
Injury expert Glenn Flesig discussed the latest Tommy John surgery epidemic at the annual Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, writes Matthew Leach of MLB.com. Flesig, who holds a doctorate in biomedical engineering, is the partner of Dr. James Andrews at the American Sports Medicine Institute (ASMI). The institute aims to “improve the understanding, prevention and treatment of sports-related injuries through research and education.”
Flesig presented data on both professional and youth pitchers. At the professional level, 16% of pitchers have had Tommy John surgery. Flesig found that once pitchers have recovered from the procedure, “they have the typical flexibility and typical mechanics. So they’re back to normal.” Of course, lost time and the potential for complications means that it’s best to avoid the issue in the first place.
Of course, UCL replacement can often impact free agency and the trade market. The increased incidence of the injury last season had some teams reaching for outside help. The Braves were able to call upon Ervin Santana on a one-year deal when Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy both required a second procedure. Atlanta forfeited a draft pick when they signed Santana. We saw both Medlen and Beachy sign short-term, incentive-laden contracts this winter.
Since the recovery rate is so high, teams are willing to project a return to normality for prospects. Last June, the Blue Jays drafted Jeff Hoffman ninth overall. The Nationals took Erik Fedde with the 18th pick. Both pitchers had Tommy John surgery shortly before the draft.
A study of youth pitchers could reveal the way to decrease the incidence of elbow injury. Flesig offered a few convincing correlations. Youth pitchers who threw over 80 pitches in a game were four times more likely to require surgery. Those who pitched for more than eight months a year were five times more likely.
Pitching when fatigued was the biggest risk indicator. Youth who self-identified as having “often pitched” when fatigued were 36 times more likely to go under the knife. For the parents in the audience, don’t let your kid pitch too often or when fatigued.
Hoops Rumors Has Your NBA Trade Deadline Coverage
The clock is ticking toward the NBA trade deadline at 2pm Central time today! We’re on top of it all on Hoops Rumors as the Thunder and Nets near a blockbuster involving Brook Lopez and Reggie Jackson. Multiple deals have already gone down elsewhere, with Arron Afflalo heading to the Blazers, JaVale McGee on his way to the 76ers, and Ramon Sessions and Andre Miller changing places. Check out Hoops Rumors for all the excitement as the trade rumors fly!
Recent Reviews For The Trade Rumors App
136 five-star reviews don’t lie. Check out a sampling of the App Store reviews for our Trade Rumors app on iOS, all from within the last two weeks:
Stop thinking about it and download it already. It’s as awesome as the site. – Skin E. G., Feb. 18
I have had the MLBTR app for a while after using the site for years. Then the new app blew me away. I had never followed the NFL site before but it is now a critical part of my sports day. Love it. – Johndcoyle, Feb. 18
This app is great to keep up with a specific team or league. The info is usually spot on and is delivered quickly before anyone else. – Joemx14, Feb. 13
Love the ability to see just my teams and players that I want to follow. Great app. – digitalturtle, Feb. 12
This is THE go-to app for sports transactions. The real-time information and analysis is second to none. – Robert Martinez, Feb. 8
Did we mention the Trade Rumors app is free and now allows you to set up notifications and feeds at the sport, team, and/or player level? Download Trade Rumors for iOS or Android today!
Free DraftKings MMA Contest With $500 Prize Pool
Free is always good. Check out the latest MMA salary cap contest at DraftKings: it’s free to play, and has $1,000 in prize money!
The top 225 finishing positions win money, with first place getting $100. As we mentioned, it’s free to join. The deadline for entry is Saturday at 7:30pm eastern time. Also, if you do want to try a contest with an entry fee, first-time depositors at DraftKings receive a 100% bonus up to $600.
This is a salary cap style MMA contest, where you use a $50,000 budget to select five fighters. Check out my picks below:
Only hours remain, so don’t hesitate. Enter this free MMA salary cap contest at DraftKings now!
Roc Nation Sports, CAA Announce End Of Partnership
Roc Nation Sports, founded by Jay-Z in 2013, and CAA Sports have announced the end of their planned two-year partnership, writes Liz Mullen of Sports Business Journal. Per Mullen, the agencies released the following joint statement:
“Roc Nation Sports and CAA Sports have recently concluded their two-year partnership. Roc Nation Sports and CAA Sports are two of the premier agencies and they will continue their high levels of client service to the world’s top athletes. They have enjoyed their time as partners and have achieved many successes together. Going forward, they will each focus their efforts on their own business opportunities and clientele.”
Roc Nation Sports made headlines when then-Yankees superstar Robinson Cano left agent Scott Boras to become Jay-Z’s first major client. Roc Nation and CAA head Brodie Van Wagenen partnered to negotiate a massive 10-year, $240MM contract with the Mariners. Since bringing Cano into the fold, Roc Nation has also added the likes of Yoenis Cespedes, CC Sabathia and Rusney Castillo, among MLB players. The agency also represents athletes from other major sports, including 2013-14 NBA MVP Kevin Durant, and NFL Pro Bowl wide receivers Victor Cruz and Dez Bryant, among others.
Remember that for agent information, you can consult MLBTR’s Agency Database, which contains representation data on more than 2,000 Major League and Minor League players. If you see any errors or omissions, please let us know: mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.
Check Out ProFootballRumors.Com
NFL free agency officially begins a month from today, and while we’re anticipating a flurry of action on that Tuesday, we’re also expecting plenty of excitement in the weeks leading up to that date, as teams assign franchise tags, cut veterans to create cap room, and try to work out extensions with key free agents.
You can follow all the latest NFL news and rumors at Pro Football Rumors, where we recently took an in-depth look at this year’s franchise tag candidates, such as Broncos wide receiver Demaryius Thomas, Chiefs pass rusher Justin Houston, and Patriots safety Devin McCourty. Over the next few weeks, we’ll also be previewing the offseason, team by team, and examining the free agent market, position by position. Be sure to check us out and give us a follow on Twitter!


