Latest Red Sox Rumor – Clement, Vidro, Milledge
Several emailers have alerted me to a post made over at Sons of Sam Horn late last night. A respected poster lays out this scenario:
Red Sox trade Matt Clement and Alex Cora
Nationals trade Jose Vidro and Jay Bergmann
Mets trade Lastings Milledge and Xavier Nady (with some chance of Victor Diaz instead of Milledge)
Red Sox receive Milledge and Nady
Nationals receive Clement and Cora plus cash if Clement pitches over 150 innings
Mets receive Vidro and Bergmann plus a PTNBL from either Nats or Sox depending on Vidro’s health. (Livan Hernandez could end up with the Mets as well)
I paraphrased a few things but this is all from the post. I haven’t heard anything about these players lately, but I thought the rumor would make for interesting discussion. My thoughts:
From the Red Sox point of view, it’s either a steal or a salary dump. It’d be a steal if Milledge were indeed the centerpiece. However, there are some who believe Milledge is not even a top 100 prospect. Don’t gasp, Mets fans – David Luciani knows what he’s talking about and still respects Milledge.
If the Red Sox are acquiring Diaz and Nady for Clement, I can’t see a big improvement to their club for 2006. It would have to be motivated by the $19MM owed to Clement over the next two seasons, but the Red Sox aren’t having budget problems so it doesn’t make a lot of sense. The issue of whether the Sox have starting pitching depth from which to deal has been debated endlessly; it depends on how you evaluate their young guys.
The Nationals wouldn’t be surrendering much to get Clement. I’ve been told Vidro’s health is still questionable, and he makes $23MM over the next three seasons. The team would love to get out from under that contract. 24 year-old Bergmann looks like a decent enough reliever, but not a top tier prospect. The Nationals would definitely have to bump someone out of the rotation to give Clement a spot. They are currently six deep with Tony Armas, Ryan Drese, Livan Hernandez, Brian Lawrence, Ramon Ortiz, and John Patterson.
The deal makes the least amount of sense for the Mets. It’s been stated repeatedly that the team wants to hold onto Milledge, and that is thought to be the only reason they haven’t traded for Barry Zito. So the addition of Vidro and his albatross contract doesn’t equate here. Add Livan Hernandez and you might have something, but the 30 year-old may not be ace material anymore after posting a 1.43 WHIP in 2005.
Jeff Weaver: Last Man Standing
I ranked Jeff Weaver 18th overall on my Top 50 Free Agents for 2006, and he’s easily the best remaining starting pitcher (Roger Clemens aside). After Weaver the dropoff is huge – it’s Kevin Brown or Lima Time. Kind of remains me of this, a memory I’ve been trying to repress for ten years.
For a while it seemed like Weaver was being strangely undervalued in the market. He’s a very dependable starter and he’s still 29. He’s thrown 444 innings over the past two seasons with the Dodgers, compiling a 4.11 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 6.3 K/9 during that span.
Ken Rosenthal cleared this muddy picture for us yesterday after speaking with Weaver’s agent, Scott Boras. We now know that Weaver hadn’t actually hit the market until now. Boras delayed Weaver’s release date to give the Dodgers first crack at him. It seems that a three-year contract with an option would’ve gotten the job done, but it might take four years at this point.
Last week, Weaver was looking like a potential free agent bargain in the vein of Kevin Millwood last year for the Indians. If nobody wanted to give him three years and $30MM (or whatever), he’d just take a one-year, $8MM deal or something. However, what this potential bargain has taken a 180. It’s fairly obvious that once a ton of people want something, it becomes overvalued. Such will be the case with Weaver, who has eight teams after him.
Rosenthal’s speculation on that front: the Red Sox, Cardinals, and Orioles. Let’s expand on that and try to nail the possibilities.
Orioles – Given Weaver’s recent durability, we know Peter Angelos’s injury hangups probably won’t come into play here. And let’s not rule out the ballclub just because Angelos and Boras aren’t best buddies. The club talks to all agents and is a good fit for Weaver.
Red Sox – I can’t help but doubt the Sox want to bring Weaver back into the AL East. His 5.99 ERA with the Yankees in ’03 looms large.
Tigers – No one seems to think the Tigers would bring Weaver back. Their rotation is pretty much set anyway.
Angels – Maybe he’d love to play with his brother Jered one day, et cetera et cetera. This is cited as a pretty big reason for the Angels to be in play, but a lot of us thought the Braves would end up with Brian Giles for the same reason. According to Bill Stoneman, signing Weaver is "not a likely thing."
Mets – Sure, why not? Pedro, Glavine, Weaver, Benson, Trachsel. You could do worse.
Phillies – Let’s see how this rotation looks so far: Lieber, Lidle, Madson, Myers, Ryan Franklin. I think they’re set, especially with a few options in-house for replacements.
Nationals – It’s looking like they’re going with John Patterson, Livan Hernandez, Ramon Ortiz, Brian Lawrence, and Tony Armas. Ryan Drese is floating around as well. I know they’re mentioned as a main suitor, but I don’t see it.
Cubs – Certainly seems like a legit possibility. No Boras reservations. Possible rotation: Zambrano, Prior, Maddux, Wood, Jerome Williams. Not counting on Wood probably means Glendon Rusch or Rich Hill though. Despite the surplus, the Cubs have been making noise about adding another starter. Perhaps Williams would be dealt (although this seems like an unwise course of action to me).
Astros – Weaver would definitely solidify things and relieve their dependency on Roger Clemens.
Cardinals – They will be going with Carpenter, Mulder, Suppan, Marquis, and Reyes in the rotation. If Marquis is traded and Ponson does not take his spot, it would make sense to add Weaver to the mix. After all, Jocketty has pursued Javier Vazquez, Matt Morris, and A.J. Burnett this winter. Perhaps the Cardinal faithful can tell us whether he’d fit into the payroll.
Diamondbacks – No plans to pursue Weaver, according to Josh Byrnes.
I think that pretty much sums it up. In order of likelihood, Orioles, Cardinals, Mets, Cubs, Astros, Angels. Just my best guess. I’d like to hear your thoughts in the comments.
Four Teams After Patterson
According to Bruce Levine on ESPN Radio 1000, four different teams have interest in Cubs former phenom Corey Patterson. The contenders are the Orioles, Mariners, Rangers, and Nationals. Hendry apparently wants at least two young players in return. A trade is possible next week.
Personally, I hope Hendry chooses quality over quantity here. Running down the teams:
The Orioles have nothing to lose by throwing Patterson in CF and seeing if he can reignite his career. The club doesn’t seem fond of Luis Matos at this point.
A trade to the Mariners would imply the departure of Jeremy Reed, which would be a curious decision by Bill Bavasi. We’ve heard in the past that he could go to Boston for various young starters.
The Rangers have a lot of outfielders – David Dellucci, Gary Matthews Jr., Kevin Mench, Laynce Nix, and Brad Wilkerson. Dellucci is a fit for DH, and the rest have all been mentioned in trade rumors. Why Daniels would want to replace one of the four with Patterson is beyond me.
Ryan Church is a better fit in right field for the Nationals, but that’s Jose Guillen‘s position. Brandon Watson and Marlon Byrd may not be regulars, so moving Church to left and giving Patterson a shot isn’t a terrible idea. Although Watson seems like a better option that Patterson based on his Triple A stats.
Thanks to Alex
Buzz Around The Game
Let’s see what we’ve got going on today in a potpourri-style format.
As predicted, Eric Byrnes was non-tendered last night. I can’t possibly think of a better way for the Cubs to turn the Jacque Jones signing into a positive. If you sum up Byrnes and Jones’ salaries, you’ll be getting solid stats from RF for the price. Assuming Dusty Baker understands what a platoon is and how all that works.
Of course, it’s probably one more roster spot than the Cubs wanted to use on this type of thing since they already have John Mabry. But Mabry can back up Aramis Ramirez, and the Cubs can carry one less pitcher and make it work. I put a word in to a Cubs source of mine, and he agreed that the idea makes sense (who wouldn’t agree) and mentioned that the Cubs have liked Byrnes in the past.
UPDATE: Just talked to a second Cubs source, and he echoed the sentiment held by many readers of the site: Hendry didn’t give Jones $16MM to platoon him. He’s a full-timer for the most part.
Kirby Arnold reports that the Mariners offered Gil Meche to the Cubs for Corey Patterson. At first, I said, "Sure, why not." But then I looked at Meche’s numbers, and I realized there’s no way he can help the ballclub. When a pitcher loses his ability to strike batters out, as Meche may have, he has to counter the increased hits he’s surrendering with good control. Or the ability to keep the ball in the park. Meche appears to have none of these traits, and would be a frustrating spot starter who would allow tons of baserunners. I might rather have Josh Fogg at this point. There’s got to be something slightly better out there for the Cubs.
Alfonso Soriano won’t move off second base for the Nationals and is pretty much raising a stink about being dealt to Washington. Let’s see here, are there any teams with GMs dumber than Jim Bowden who might make a trade for Sori? Dan O’Brien’s club doesn’t have a need for a 2B; Placido Polanco is firmly entrenched in Detroit…maybe Littlefield is interested?
Is Millwood really getting a five year deal from someone? Insane. Incredible timing to have your 2.86 ERA season. Best timing award for the NL: Todd Jones.
My Mets guy is saying the club is still talking to the Dodgers about Jeff Kent, but right now it’s a "pipe dream." Doesn’t seem like the two teams will agree on anything. The Mets still have some faith in Victor Zambrano (or maybe they’re just trying to save face), but Omar feels that after adding Julian Tavarez his bullpen will be pretty much set.
The Mariners seem desperate to get rid of Jeremy Reed after pushing hard to obtain him for Freddy Garcia. I guess they don’t understand that center fielders are hard to find and Reed will get better. After the masterstroke that was the Johjima signing, Bill Bavasi has taken a step backward with Jarrod Washburn.
Kerry Wood for Vidro & Church?
A new Cubs trade rumor found its way into my inbox this morning courtesy of loyal reader Derek. Yesterday, Jim Williams wrote a column for the Washington Examiner suggesting the Cubs might deal Kerry Wood for Jose Vidro and Ryan Church this spring.
He mentions the health issues surrounding both Wood and Vidro and that both players would have to be ready to play. Williams also says Wood’s huge contract could be a concern. Looking at the numbers, Wood makes $11MM in 2006 and has a $13.5MM option for 2007 with a $3MM buyout attached. Vidro will make $7MM in ’06, $7.5MM in ’07, and $8.5MM in ’08. Church makes the minimum, having played just 132 games in the bigs.
I talked to three of my Cubs sources to see if they thought this rumor had any validity. One called it "totally absurd." The another said that given Wood’s blanket no-trade clause, the rumor’s not feasible. I haven’t been able to find Jim Williams’s email address to ask him about that aspect of the deal. A third source called the rumor sounded "shaky," saying that Wood would probably approve a deal to the Astros or Rangers, but not the Nationals. He mentioned that Wood will need more than spring training to prove his shoulder is healthy, and a July trade wouldn’t be a surprise.
My thoughts on the players: Vidro’s decline is coming on fast and he may never be completely healthy again. Church will be a solid Major Leaguer if he gets the opportunity. Wood seems destined for the bullpen in the long-term, perhaps with a Gagne-like run in the cards.
Adam Eaton On The Block
ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick spoke to Adam Eaton last week, and his article definitely gives the vibe that the righthander won’t be staying in San Diego past 2006.
Eaton’s opinion of the Padres’ three-year, $17MM offer?
"It was almost like a slap in the face compared to what I’m capable of doing."
That’s an amusing statement. Here’s my translation:
"I’ve pitched almost 800 Major League innings and have posted a medicore 4.35 ERA for my career. I’ve never pitched more than 200 innings or had an ERA below 4 in a season, in a pitcher’s ballpark to boot. But since I’m under 30 and don’t completely suck, I’m worth at least $10MM per season. I’m insulted that you’ve only offered me $5MM per season."
Given that impressive resume, it’s no surprise teams are beating down the door to acquire Eaton. No, really, they are. These are the interested parties, according to Crasnick:
Rangers
Nationals
Tigers
Orioles
Red Sox
Cubs
Thoughts on a few of these suitors:
The Rangers have been shaky about including both Gerald Laird and Adrian Gonzalez to get a deal done, and they reportedly backed out of such a deal earlier this month. Eaton has been below average in home run prevention throughout his career, so I’m not sure he’s the best fit for Ameriquest. But Texas can’t count on Vicente Padilla to fill the void left by Kenny Rogers, so it’s likely they’ll bring another starter in this winter.
If Eaton could remain healthy, he’d give Washington solid starting pitching depth. 1-5, it’d go John Patterson, Livan Hernandez, Eaton, Brian Lawrence, and Ryan Drese. Top prospect Mike Hinckley will need some time before he’s ready to step in. A swap of Ryan Church for Eaton sounds like fair value to me, and Church would be a nice fit in left field for the Pads.
I’m not sure that the Cubs have what Padres GM Kevin Towers would want for Eaton. Plus, the point of Hendry adding another starter was seemingly to add a durable pitcher to the mix in the event that Kerry Wood can’t make 30 starts. Eaton is anything but durable.
Javier Vazquez Trade Close?
With a Javier Vazquez trade supposedly close to complete, it’s been unusually hard to dig up information about the deal. Here’s the situation so far:
Adam Rubin of the New York Daily News addressed Vazquez today with just this blurb:
"Javier Vazquez, who has piqued the Mets’ interest, may be on the verge of getting shipped to the Windy City. A baseball insider suggested the White Sox are the most likely destination for the Diamondbacks pitcher, possibly leading to a trade involving Jon Garland (a free agent after the 2006 season) or Jose Contreras."
Ken Rosenthal is on the same page:
"The White Sox are making a ‘strong, under the radar’ bid to trade for Diamondbacks right-hander Javier Vazquez, according to a source with knowledge of the negotiations. The package of players that the Diamondbacks would receive is not known, though it could include a major-league starting pitcher — perhaps right-hander Jon Garland or Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez — and an outfield prospect such as Chris Young."
The Mets have long been mentioned as another suitor for Vazquez, and the Nationals are a dark horse.
I hate to be a wet blanket, but it doesn’t look like Vazquez will end up with either major market club.
I spoke to Chicago Tribune White Sox beat writer Mark Gonzales for his take on the rumor:
"Don’t think it’s going to happen. They had a brief chat, and nothing is on the front burner as of late last week. Garland has become a bigger concern because of the free agent market."
The takeaway? The Sox probably won’t chase Vazquez, but they’re not going to pay Garland A.J. Burnett money after this season. Look for Garland to be dealt before the trading deadline, and possibly this winter.
How about the Mets? My source close to the team tells me that some in the front office are privately scared of how Vazquez fared in the Bronx. Omar likes him, but there is a split opinion. The club is in wait and see mode, so they won’t aggressively pursue Vazquez.
One thing’s for sure – the Diamondbacks are being tight-lipped about details of the Vazquez deal. I know that Jack Magruder of the East Valley Tribune, who is close to Josh Byrnes, still doesn’t know where the righty starter is headed. Perhaps an unexpected team will emerge with the best offer, like the Tigers for example.
Alfonso Soriano’s Washington Projection
Some have suggested that RFK Stadium will kill Alfonso Soriano‘s fantasy value. Find out if that’s true by reading my Alfonso Soriano Washington Nationals 2006 Projection over at RotoAuthority.
Another website to check out today is Cub Town. Derek Smart writes intelligent posts about the Cubs with a healthy dose of stats mixed in. Highly recommended.
Nationals Snag Soriano, Will Remain At 2B
ESPN is reporting that Jim Bowden picked up Alfonso Soriano for the Nationals and sent Brad Wilkerson and Terrmel Sledge over to the Rangers.
The trade is a pretty fair one by my off-the-cuff analysis. I’ll probably have some player projections on RotoAuthority tomorrow, given that players are moving from an extreme pitchers’ park to a home run haven.
Once extra piece of information that we’ve managed to acquire contradicts a statement in the ESPN report. According to ESPN:
"With Jose Vidro already entrenched at second base, it’s believed that the Nationals would move Soriano to left field."
My source is saying that the Nationals’ front office is quietly concerned that Jose Vidro may be done for his career. Expect Soriano to see most of his time at second base in years to come.
A.J. Burnett Update
Some new information to report on the A.J. Burnett saga.
Let’s start at Viva El Birdos, where lboros is getting a little weary with the constant Burnett sightings and updates. It’s unclear whether he can be described as indefatigable. Lboros references this Toronto Star article, which has the Cards close but the Blue Jays still in the game. Another article mentions that the Nationals are still in the running even though they’ve yet to make an offer.
In light of this information, Brian Walton’s Scout.com article has changed significantly. Walton is still contending that Burnett is due in St. Louis for a physical and has agreed to terms.
Speaking of Burnett in St. Louis sightings, I’ve got another source adamant that Burnett was seen at Lambert-St. Louis International Airport as first noted yesterday. My source has talked to the head of security for Terminal A, who is "99% sure" it was A.J. Burnett last night. Given that both sightings were by Cardinals fans, there may be another explanation to all the madness.