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Archives for November 2006

Carlos Lee Sweepstakes

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The Houston Chronicle provides the latest update on the chase for Carlos Lee.  It suggests that Tim Purpura could ultimately decide to give El Caballo an Aramis Ramirez-type contract–5 years, $73 million.  Right now, the deal the Astros have offered Lee is believed to be 5 years for $60 million.

The Chron has a source saying that an AL team (gotta be the Orioles) has floated a $70M/5 deal.  It sounds like the Phillies haven’t made an offer; maybe Pat Gillick will realize that signing Lee just to replace Pat Burrell would be a bizarre waste of time.  As it is, it seems like the Astros are banking on getting some kind of hometown discount, while the Orioles are hoping that Carlos wants to play for a mediocre team for the remainder of his productive career.

Then again, it’s always possible that the Cubs will sweep in and sign Lee and Julio Lugo this weekend.  Once you spend $200M, what’s another $70M?

UPDATE: Roch Kubatko reports that the Orioles are willing to go six years, for between $80 and $90 million.  Carlos loves his cattle ranch, but the gap between the O’s and the ’Stros seems to be widening.

By Jeff Sackmann

Tuesday tidbits

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Nothing in the news that is too breathtaking today, but there have been enough things worthy of mention that I thought I’d throw them all into one thread.

Here’s a fun trade possibility: the Red Sox are interested in Chad Cordero (uh, who wouldn’t be?) and may be dangling Wily Mo Pena, whom Jim Bowden is known to…how should I put this?…really like.  Bowden hasn’t acquired a toolsy outfielder for a couple of weeks now, so if the Sox found a way to sweeten the deal, perhaps Trader Jim would take the bait.

The Yankees have been quiet lately, but they may soon make an offer to bring back Ted Lilly.  They have also been linked to Shea Hillenbrand and Rich Aurilia to fill a spot at first base. 

The Rockies signed Jeff Francis to a four-year deal for $13.25M, which takes him through his arbitration years.  He’s still only 25, and if nothing else, he’s proven he can eat innings.  He may still turn into more than that.  Even if he’s no more than a 5th starter, he’ll be worth close to that amount, and the Rockies will probably want to exercise their ~$7M option for his first year of free agency in 2011.

According to the LA Times, who I would link to if they didn’t require registration, Carlos Lee isn’t interested in the west coast, which would rule out the Dodgers, Angels, and Giants.  You gotta admit, it would’ve been pretty funny if El Caballo signed in LA and he and Juan Pierre played side by side for the next five years.  By the end of those deals, Vin Scully would’ve said "double to the left-field gap" more times than he did in his first twenty years of broadcasting.

The Reds sent more than half of Jason LaRue’s salary along with him in yesterday’s trade.  I didn’t think it was a horrible deal for the Royals in the first place (though, admittedly, do they really need a mediocre stopgap catcher to help get them to 70 wins?) but this makes it a better one.  More coverage at Royals Review.  (You didn’t know there was a Royals blog, did you?)

By Jeff Sackmann

Morsels to munch on

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Which teams were the streakiest in baseball last year? Sal Baxamusa posted a nice statistical article over at The Hardball Times looking at offensive consistency in MLB using the Weibull distribution model. It couldn’t have been the Soriano sweepstakes winners, could it?

Think the MVP should have gone to Pujols and not Howard? Jim Baker at Baseball Prospectus (subscription that you should have is required) continues the fan’s ongoing amazement over the NL MVP voting this year. Some of the questions he raised were how McCann’s 54.8 VORP didn’t even garner him one vote; how Freddy Sanchez received five votes to Jason Bay’s one vote; or how Bronson Arroyo received a vote but Miguel Cabrera, perhaps one of the top ten in the NL last year, didn’t get one vote.

What is scarier in the NLCD — the Cubs adding Soriano (and still after Lugo as I speculated the other day they might), Wayne Krivsky violating his own gag order on acquisitions, Pujols’ 2007 projections after he didn’t get the MVP, the Pirates filling their entire 40-man roster despite needing a starter and lefty thumper, or the Brewers sitting quiet in the back of the room?

Have you seen this year’s results of Tango’s player Scouting Report by the Fans?

David Appleman over at http://www.fangraphs.com talks and graphs ground ball percentage obtained by pitch location in his article here.

By Jake

Juan Pierre: $45M/5

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Insanity.  $9M for Pierre is a stretch: he’s not a great defender, he hasn’t posted an OBP above .330 in two years, and he isn’t even a particularly high-percentage basestealer.  As I mentioned earlier, Kenny Lofton had a better 2006.  But, in this market, $9M a year for a leadoff hitter isn’t too crazy–Pierre might well be better than, say, Gary Matthews Jr.

But…five years?  It would certainly appear that Matthews is going to get the money he’s after.  Dave Roberts’s agent probably just upped his demands, too.  Even Lofton ought to get either a two-year deal or a rich one-year contract. 

In other news this evening:
The Marlins swapped Chris Resop to the Angels for Kevin Gregg.
The Mets officially declined Tom Glavine’s option.

Mets and Marlins trade minor league arms

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The Mets traded Henry Owens and Matt Lindstrom, both RHPs, to Florida for Jason Vargas and Adam Bostick, both LHPs.  Here’s a link; apparently the announcement is coming at 6pm EST. Vargas is the most MLB-ready of the bunch: he had a nifty half-season in 2005, but wasn’t able to repeat in ’06.  He’ll provide rotation insurance for New York of the Oliver Perez variety.

Owens is probably the guy with the biggest potential impact: in 40 Double-A innings, he struck out seventy-four.  He’s got some control problems, too, but adjusting for park and translating his stats to MLB numbers, that gives him an OPS against of .456.  OPS!  He could be a good one.  Lindstrom and Bostick are in there to even out the deal; Lindstrom is mostly roster filler at this point–he had a good year between A+ and AA, but he’s 26.  Bostick is 23, but still has only pitched a few innings above Double-A.

Also just in: the Moises Alou deal is one year, $7.5 million with a club option for 2008.

By Jeff Sackmann

LaRue traded to the Royals

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According to Baseball Digest Daily’s newsletter (not yet online), Jason LaRue (and, I would guess, some portion of his $5.2 million salary for 2007) are headed to Kansas City for a minor leaguer to be named.  The Royals had been in the market for a catcher, and this means they won’t have to sign Gregg Zaun to the three-year deal he’s after.

LaRue had a disastrous off-year in 2006, hitting below .200 in limited duty.  (Hit below .200 with a couple of good catchers on the roster, and you will always find yourself in limited duty!  Unless you’re Brad Ausmus.)  However, he’s only one year removed from a 4.7 win season–if the Royals can get anything close to that out of him, he’s worth the full five million bucks.  However, he’s a catcher going into his age-33 season; ZiPS projects him to "bounce back" to .234/.331/.411.  That wouldn’t earn him a fan club in KC, but it would be good enough, especially if he continued to be above average on defense, which he has been over his career..

Looks like this could be a great trade for both sides: the Reds save some cash on a player they don’t need, and the Royals get a catcher with some upside without tying themselves into a long-term contract.

UPDATE: Here’s a link for now.

By Jeff Sackmann

Pierre to the Dodgers?

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Rosenthal says Juan Pierre is about to sign with the Dodgers.  Oddly enough, it probably won’t result in an improvement from last year: Kenny Lofton had a very nice season in LA, outperforming Pierre in just about every category except for steals.  The Dodgers do need at least one more outfielder, as only Andre Ethier is much of a certainty, but this is an awfully expensive way to plug that gap.

Rosenthal doesn’t mention money, but a couple of days ago, a report surfaced that the Giants had offered Pierre $30M for 3 years.  That’s awful high if you think Ethier can play center, or if you think Matt Kemp (or any number of other Dodger farmhands) might be ready by 2008.  However, Ned Colletti didn’t shop in the bargain bin last year, and it doesn’t look like he’s going to do so this year, either.

By Jeff Sackmann

Garciaparra About to Sign

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The Dodgers now have a first (or third) baseman for the next couple of years.  Nomar Garciaparra agreed to come back to L.A. for two more years.  There have been no monetary details in the articles I’ve seen, but since Nomar made $8.5M with incentives last year, I have to imagine he’s making more than that in each year of this deal.  Maybe $10-11M per year?  Seems like his value should be in the Frank Thomas range; maybe a little higher since the risk of career-ending injury isn’t so high.

With Bill Mueller’s retirement, that would seem to open up third base for Wilson Betemit, unless Rafael Furcal or Jeff Kent gets hurt, in which case Betemit could slide over, opening up third for Nomar or Andy LaRoche.  If Nomar is slotted in at first, that means (as speculated) that James Loney will start the year in the outfield.

 

UPDATE: The LA Times says it’s $18M total.  Good deal for Ned Coletti.

By Jeff Sackmann

Thoughts On The Soriano Deal

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Hi everyone, Tim here.  I thought I would check in briefly on this little contract that the Cubs have extended to Mr. Soriano.  I just can’t resist.  The wedding yesterday was perfect; we’re jetting off to Cancun on Tuesday.  I am a lucky man.  The lovely Mrs. Dierkes is all tuckered out after the big weekend, so here are some random thoughts.

From a Cubs fan point of view: I love the Alfonso Soriano signing.  As fans often say to justify insane contracts: "It’s not my money; I just want to win."  I agree with that philosophy.  The Yankees might take some heat for the way they throw around cash, but I think that’s rooted in jealousy.  One has to think Red Sox fans will back off on the Evil Empire stuff now that their team just bid $51.1 mil to talk to a pitcher.  Fans just want to win, right now.  Doesn’t matter if Soriano is a $17MM bench warmer in 2014. 

I don’t think anyone can believe it took eight years, though.  Six, for sure.  We figured the seventh year from someone might be the clincher.  But eight?  No one saw this coming.  But is this the worst contract ever, or whatever various blogs are claiming?  Of course not.  Todd Helton?  Even Darren Dreifort?  This is not the worst contract ever or anything close to that.  This is an athletic player who will probably age well.  Soriano has proven quite durable, and he’s not anchored to first base.  This is premium offense for a position where a .440 SLG is above average.

Is Soriano one of those players who learns to take a walk as he enters his early 30s?  The Cubs are rolling the dice on that one.  A player doesn’t nearly double his walk rate by accident, true, but one season doesn’t necessarily indicate a trend.  If Soriano throws up a .310 OBP for the Cubs in 2007, well, this deal will look considerably worse.  We just don’t know yet.

The second gamble for the Cubs is that Soriano can play a decent center field.  I think he can.  The tools are there; he should be above average by 2008.  Of course, I’m no scout, but it’s not like someone is wishcasting Carlos Lee as a CF. 

Is the money really that crazy?  I don’t think so.  Soriano may not be "worth it," but the supply of 40 HR center fielders consisted of only him.  The demand was huge, the dollars and desperation were there.  Comparing this to the Beltran and Guerrero contracts is silly.  To do so implies that the market has remained the same for three years.  What?  Come on now.  We all thought Derek Lowe at four years, $36MM was absurd.  All of us except Paul DePodesta.  Pitching exploded and it’s a bargain now.  Manny’s contract is looking OK now.  Soriano will never be a bargain.  But Andruw Jones could snag a contract next year at, say, $175MM over eight years.  Baseball is changing.

For once in this Cubs fan’s life, the team appears to be pulling a 1997 Marlins: just going for broke.  Better living through free agency.  It’s not a brilliant plan, and it’s not an efficient way to build a long-term winner.  And yes, desperation is a large factor.  But there’s no going back; the Cubs should drop another $15-18MM for two solid starters.

Bartman, the goat, Prior/Wood/Sammy – this crap is over.  Maybe Derrek Lee’s wrist, Aramis Ramirez’s "laziness", Soriano’s OBP, and Zambrano’s wildness will converge next year to make the Cubs a pricey 80 win team.  But even so, at least we can say for once that the Cubs are trying.  To quote Gammons:

"Admit it: The game is always healthier when the Cubs are good, and in a week they have made themselves a whole lot better."

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