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Archives for November 2006

Roberts to the Giants, and more

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It looks like Dave Roberts is going to be a Giant.  This will save San Francisco fans from self-immolation over their front office’s apparent inability to make stupid deals, and ensure that the Giants theme of "oldsters in the outfield" remains intact even with Steve Finley and possibly Barry Bonds on their way out.

In other news: Woody Williams got a two-year deal with the Astros for $12.5M.  That seems remarkably sane, though I wouldn’t plan on drafting Woody for your fantasy team.  He had an okay year in Petco, but he’s moving to one of the unfriendliest parks in baseball for pitching.  If the short porch in left is going to do wonders for Carlos Lee, it’s going to hurt Williams nearly as much.

Phil Rogers offers a plethora of random thoughts: the Cubs want to move Jacque Jones; Jones or Geoff Jenkins would be an improvement for the White Sox (so he says); and the Sox could send Scott Podsednik and Juan Uribe to San Fran for Omar Vizquel (much less likely after the Roberts signing, I’d imagine).  Emphasis on "could": he’s obviously just making stuff up. 

Speaking of making stuff up: now that most of the center fielders out there have found homes, it’s time for the second basemen to start falling into place.  There’s been more news lately of Adam Kennedy, who is likely to land in St. Louis, or possibly Toronto.  The market for Kennedy, Ronnie Belliard, and others may depend on whether Julio Lugo and/or Ray Durham end up as outfielders, which would shrink the market for those teams who need second basemen.

By Jeff Sackmann

Free Agent Spending By Team

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I’ve had a few people ask how much money has been spent so far on free agents so I compiled a list at my blog showing the values for the first 28 players that have signed.

Here’s the link: http://buccoblog.mlblogs.com

How’s your team doing? Sinking, swimming, or not even close to the water yet?

By Jake at Bucco Blog

Lee, Williams, Catalanotto, Barajas, and Roberts

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Map Tim sends his best from Cancun and wishes everyone was with him.

Not!

They are still trying to find their honeymoon hotel so he’s not quite sure when he’ll be back. And, no, he didn’t send any Cancun beach shots. Dang..

Speaking about vacations, how about the Astros signing Lee at $100m/6? Wow. My take is this – the power starved Astros obviously felt they were one player away and Lee happened to be available. He’ll probably hit 40 home runs despite all the talk about his lack of power after April last year. Don’t forget Minute Maid is full of hot air.

The Astros also jumped on Woody Williams at $12.5/2. I suppose this is a message to Astros fans that Pupura doesn’t expect the Rocket to resign. Just a guess. At 40-years old, Williams is a huge risk of course.

The Rangers signed Frank Catalanotto to a $13.5m/3 year deal today too. Dan Szymborwski at the Baseball Think Factory believes it is a solid deal for the Rangers, and I agree.

MLBTR’s reader eeleye99 was kind enough to offer up that the Blue Jays are reportedly ready to sign Rod Barajas as their every day receiver around $6m/2. Nice catch eeleye99 – thanks.

Another MLBTR reader – Rayman, found that Dave Roberts is reportedly picking the Giants over the Brewers. Kudo’s for the find Rayman. 

At The Plate has started compiling all the teams top 10 prospects by publication. They have done a great job of this for several years now. You might want to bookmark the site.

Bucco Blog has indicated that the most sought out pitcher on the Pirates staff this winter has been southpaw Tom Gorzelanny. There have been rumors that the Braves wanted Gorzelanny and Maholm for LaRoche, and today Tracy Ringolsby, the award winning columnist of the Rocky Mountain News, has indicated that a Rockies Brad Hawpe trade has been discussed with the Pirates who will only give up Maholm. I assume they also want Gorzelanny in any package. I love Tracy’s writing – the guy is flat out kewl.

Interestingly, Ringolsby is also reporting in that article that agents are complaining that the Rockies didn’t offer enough to Francis in his latest $13.5/4 year deal. I suppose the agents had to find a way to say the "C" word this year, despite the soaring value of contracts so far.

Have you ever read the The Carbolic Smoke Ball blog? OMG – it is Hilllll ar ious.

By Jake at Bucco Blog

Carlos Lee to Houston

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Baseball Digest Daily is reporting that Carlos Lee has agreed to a six-year deal with the Astros.  The last dollar amount I saw for this deal was $73M, and that was a five-year deal.  I figure we must be up to at least $85M now.  Back in July, it seemed ridiculous that Lee would reject a four-year, $48M deal out of hand.  Back then, I was glad the Brewers didn’t spend that much on him!  But after the Juan Pierre and Gary Matthews Jr. signings, this deal doesn’t look that crazy.

Now the market for bats is a much slimmer one.  Among free-agents, Barry Bonds, Mike Piazza and Cliff Floyd are among the only guys who could legitimately bat in the middle of the order, and all of them come with major question marks.  The A’s, who probably can’t afford Bonds, are reported to be talking about Piazza and Floyd, while several people have emailed me about reports that Floyd is about to sign with the Cubs. 

In other words, if you want an impact bat, you should consider trading for one.  Sean McAdam has a piece about who might be available, including familiar trade-bait names such as Manny Ramirez, Carl Crawford, and Pat Burrell.  And one bizarre name who doesn’t belong.

UPDATE: Here’s a link to the TV station reporting the Lee deal; Carlos is on the front page, at least for now.

By Jeff Sackmann

Turkey Day Tidbits

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Happy Thanksgiving from MLB Trade Rumors!

Grab your shopping list — Bucco Blog has posted the Pirates top 10 prospect list.

I initially thought one of the collateral consequences of the increased market value of players this year would be that arbitration values would go up over the next few years, but Jim Callis at Baseball America said he doesn’t think that will happen since arbitration contracts are compared to people with similar service time. Interesting.

Did anyone else see ProTrade’s reaction to the 2006 MVP awards? Talk about blowing out the industry – whew!

USA Today has a couple of nice articles — on the Royals rebuilding plans and the other on the Brewers potential to return to respectability.

Will Steinbrenner’s potential desire to name son-in-law Steve Swindal as the next CEO be sidetracked with Swindal becoming the next operator of the New York’s three major thoroughbred racetracks — Aqueduct, Belmont Park and Saratoga?

By Jake

McDonough to Shed ‘Interim’ Tag

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Cubs people tell me the mysteriously lingering "interim" tag on Cubs President John McDonough will be dropped after the New Year.  Apparently, that’s when Andy MacPhail’s "handshake deal" expires. 

No worries, Cub fans. McDonough will be keeping the job for good (and possibly shelling out more dough).

Also, here is the most recent fantasy scouting report on Juan Pierre, as well as some other things.

–Koch at CubDumb

Gotham Baseball: Bowden Calling Big Apple for Help

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Washington Nationals GM Jim Bowden got the guy he "really wanted" in Manny Acta, and now he’s hoping that the former third base coach for the Mets can help figure a way to convince his former employers to send Lastings Milledge to RFK for 2007.  The only problem with that scenario is that Bowden has very little to give New York.

"Bowden is trying to sell the Mets on a John Patterson for Lastings Milledge deal, which the Mets have flatly refused."

New York does have interest in Patterson, Jon Rauch and New Jersey’s Jason Bergmann, but certainly not for Milledge, whose value may have lowered, but “not that low”.

Gotham Baseball Magazine’s D.C.-based source says that may not be the case for the Yankees, who have expressed interest in making a deal for the Nats’ (and former Yankee) Nick Johnson.

“The Yankees have been asking about Nick Johnson and Brian Schneider, but as he usually does, (Bowden) is asking for the moon. The difference now is, Bowden can’t afford to haggle, because the pitching staff is a shambles."

Comments are now open, sorry ’bout that – mh

Sarge to the Angels

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The Angels appear to have signed Gary Matthews Jr. to a 5 year, $50 million deal.  I recognize that this is a new market, that the teams have tons of money, that free agents are getting paid more than they would’ve been last year.  But I’m sorry, this is completely ridiculous.

Matthews has had one good season in his career.  Of course, that was last year, and it was great, so he positioned himself well for the market.  But the dude’s 32, he’d never been much above average before, he put up his good offensive numbers in a major hitter’s park, and he may not be that great of a center fielder.  Having GMJ under contract for the next five years ensures that the Angels will have an overpaid corner outfielder even after Garret Anderson’s contract runs out.

Sarge’s career line is .263/.336/.419.  According to ZiPS, Maicer Izturis is going to have a better season than that.  (I know Izturis doesn’t play center, just…eight figures for utility infielder offense?)

Now for the implications: this would seem to suggest that the Angels won’t be going after Andruw Jones or Manny Ramirez, though trading prospects for Manny would’ve been smarter than doing this.  It also might mean that Chone Figgins is expendable, though he’s coming off the worst offensive season of his career, so his trade value might not be much.

Also, we can expect the Dave Roberts sweepstakes to heat up, and perhaps see another team or two get involved with Julio Lugo, who is willing to play center field.  Just like the Juan Pierre deal, this would indicate  that Roberts will have no trouble getting the $15M/3y he’s after.  Lugo ought to have teams giving him the $32M/4y he wants, too.  Depending on how he adapts to center, Lugo could be a better player than either Pierre or Sarge, if not in 2007, for the life of their contracts.

One more thing: speaking of center fielders, you may be interested in my Hardball Times column today, which analyzes the difference in defensive skill between CFs and corner guys.  I also take a look at how Alfonso Soriano might do in center based on his 2006 performance in left.

By Jeff Sackmann

Free Agent Class Ranks 2006

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This isn’t a major concern for most teams, (especially in the current market) but sandwich picks and other compensation in the rule 4 (amateur) draft are determined by a cockamamie formula developed by the Elias Sports Bureau. 

Teams that lose a Type A free agent are compensated with two draft picks. Teams that lose a Type B free agent get one pick in return.  The other particulars, along with the entire list of this year’s FA Class Rankings, can be found here.  The entire list of Elias rankings (everybody, not just FAs) can be seen here.  (The formula takes into account the previous two seasons–that’s how a guy like Mark Mulder and his 93 IP of 7.14 ERA in ’06 can wiggle his way to the top of the B class of starting pitchers.)

It’s interesting because it’s an exploitable area.  If you’re a low-budget team looking to build your organization through the draft and player development, losing the right guys (overvalued, Type A free agents) can pay dividends.  Similarly, signing the right low-level (Type-B/No-Comp) undervalued FAs, whereby you don’t lose a pick, is certainly low-risk, and might be high-return if you’re lucky. 

With position classes weighted equally, losing David Riske (RP) gets you as many compensatory picks as losing Jason Schmidt (SP) or Alfonso Soriano (1B,OF,DH). White Sox fans can feel good about that one, and Red Sox fans can rejoice with Mark Loretta making the A-list.

Keep in mind, nearly all these comped picks are within the first two rounds, that’s before solid-looking prospects like Jonathan Papelbon, Elijah Dukes, or Ricky Nolasco are getting picked…they are slots where you’re essentially getting instant top-20 prospects within your organization.

(UPDATE: Apologies.  Teams that sign a Type B Free Agent do lose one of their own draft picks.  Also, (and something pretty important that I forgot to mention) the top 15 picks are protected.  So, as a few commenters pointed out, the Cubs, for instance, do not lose their cozy #3 slot as a result of signing Alf.

–Koch at CubDumb

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