Archives for April 2007

Dunn Changing Minds

By Tim Dierkes | April 9, 2007 at 9:01am CDT

The grip that batting average seems to have on people is undeniable. I’m not trying to sound snarky here; I just think it’s crazy that hitting .380 for a week may be changing the public sentiment about Adam Dunn.

Lonnie Wheeler of the Cincinnati Post seems to be saying that Dunn’s strikeouts are…unprofessional. But I really don’t think it’s a lack of diligence or effort. Dunn just has an all-or-nothing style, which is easy to rag on when he’s going bad (his last two months of 2006 were awful).

A lot of players can post an unusually high batting average over a month or two’s time. David Newhan made a career out of a nice stretch in 2004. I still think Dunn’s going to hit .250 or so this year. He’s made contact in 71% of his ABs this year, as opposed to 65% last year and 69% the year before. All signs point toward regression, even with Brook Jacoby around.

Regardless of his batting average, I think Dunn’s $13MM option for 2008 is a no-brainer. PECOTA feels the same. But will Wayne Krivsky and the Cincinnati media agree? If not, Dunn could be traded this summer.

Josh Byrnes Trade Profile

By Tim Dierkes | April 9, 2007 at 1:24am CDT

Diamondbacks General Manager Josh Byrnes has made 13 trades since taking over in October of 2005. You can Download arizona_diamondbacks_byrnes.xls to see all the moves. The jury is still out on many of them, but he’s done a first-class job in my opinion.

His first deal was to send a couple of relievers to the Braves for catcher Johnny Estrada in December of 2005. Estrada had a respectable, resurgent year for the Diamondbacks in ’06, but Oscar Villarreal gave the Braves 90 solid innings. Lance Cormier was less impressive but may earn a rotation spot this year once healthy. John Schuerholz may have won this one, slightly. Estrada was one of many players that Byrnes traded for and then traded away the following year.

A few weeks later Byrnes made an excellent trade, nabbing El Duque, Luis Vizcaino, and Chris Young from the White Sox for Javier Vazquez. It was a move that may sting the White Sox, as Young appears on the path to stardom as the Diamondbacks’ center fielder. Hindsight is 20/20 – I loved the move for the White Sox at the time and a couple of strong seasons from Vazquez would make it completely worth the price. We may be able to say that both teams benefitted here. Kenny Williams won a smaller deal a few months later in acquiring Alex Cintron.

Byrnes’s third deal that month was to acquire Miguel Batista and Orlando Hudson for Troy Glaus and a prospect. I think he beat J.P. Ricciardi here, as Batista was a credible back-rotation starter and Hudson blossomed into one of the game’s better 2Bs. Some stats say that Hudson had a significantly better 2006 than Glaus, positions considered.

Byrnes made two more very strong deals before the ’06 season began, netting Alberto Callaspo and Juan Cruz without giving up much. The Callaspo trade was particularly egregious for Bill Stoneman, who only got Jason Bulger in return. Callaspo could start at second for many teams.

In May of ’06 Byrnes acquired Jorge Julio from the Mets for Orlando Hernandez. El Duque was slightly more useful that year, but spinning Julio into Yusmeiro Petit last month was masterful.

Byrnes unloaded Shawn Green last August, getting him to waive his no-trade clause. The D’Backs had to eat half of Green’s contract to get Evan MacLane, a soft-tossing southpaw prospect. The move cleared a path for Carlos Quentin. It wasn’t an impressive bounty but Green obviously had to go. The other August trade was the acquisition of Livan Hernandez for Garrett Mock and Matt Chico. It’s still unknown as to whether Hernandez can replicate his ’06 Arizona success. With the price of pitching as it is it’s an OK deal.

This offseason, Byrnes revamped his rotation by trading for southpaws Randy Johnson and Doug Davis. I love the Johnson trade and like the Davis trade for Arizona. I just don’t think any of the players sent away (Estrada, Greg Aquino, Claudio Vargas, Vizcaino, and prospects) will be missed by the Diamondbacks. Dana Eveland was the icing on the cake; he’ll make a decent back-rotation guy one day.

In case you hadn’t noticed, I really like Byrnes’s trading strategies. He’s snagged some very promising young players for unwanted/expensive veterans and has never given up his best prospects. If I were a Diamondbacks fan I’d have faith in Byrnes to swing a smart deal for a scary-monster type hitter this July if the D’Backs are in the thick of the race.

Angels To Chase Andruw Jones?

By Tim Dierkes | April 8, 2007 at 9:27am CDT

A small tidbit from Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe: he has an Angels front-office source indicating that Andruw Jones, not Alex Rodriguez, is the marquee free agent of choice for the team this offseason. Such a signing would probably move Gary Matthews Jr. to left field. It reminds me of when the Mets were running Carlos Beltran and Mike Cameron out there at the same time. Good for pitchers.

Rany Jazayerli wrote last month that Jones probably left $15-30MM on the table when he last signed a contract; he’ll go for full price this winter. (It’s an interesting column – he feels that Tim Wakefield’s perpetual deal is the worst contract a player has ever signed).

Also, this related rumor kind of got buried yesterday – Ken Rosenthal mentioned that the Braves might go after Cameron if he becomes a free agent. I’m curious about which team will end up signing Torii Hunter. Rangers maybe?

Gillick Making Up for Lost Time

By Tim Dierkes | April 7, 2007 at 5:05pm CDT

Having neglected the Phillies bullpen all winter long and into the spring, Phillies general manager Pat Gillick has spent the past few days playing catch-up. On Thursday, the Phillies acquired Francisco Rosario from the Blue Jays in exchange for cash considerations, and on Friday, the team signed recently released Rick Bauer.

In today’s local papers, Gillick stated that the next relief pitcher they will evaluate will be Dustin Hermanson. The team worked out Hermanson in March but took a pass, and he ended up in the Reds’ camp where he got off to a hot start, faded, and was released.

One has to wonder if Gillick’s renewed interest in Hermanson is due to something he saw from the former White Sox closer that impressed him, or, if it is more because of what he has seen from the Phils’ bullpen depressed him.

Tom Goyne is the author of Balls, Sticks, & Stuff, a Phillies-centric site, and maintains the Phloggers’ Pheeds page, a source for the latest commentary from around the "phlogosphere".

Twins Will Negotiate In-Season

By Tim Dierkes | April 7, 2007 at 3:07pm CDT

La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune quotes a high-ranking Twins official in saying that the club will ignore their own policy and negotiate contracts during the season. In particular, they’ll continue to try to extend Joe Nathan and Johan Santana. Neal also cites precedents where the Twins bent policies, whether regarding contracts or beards.

We last heard about Nathan a few days ago, when Charley Walters reported "positive discussions" on a deal that could run through 2011. A week prior to that Nathan said he didn’t think a deal would get done this year.

Santana wants to stay, and was quoted saying "the sooner the better." It’s just a matter of how much of a discount he’ll concede to the Twins.

Ken Rosenthal’s Latest

By Tim Dierkes | April 7, 2007 at 2:45pm CDT

Ken Rosenthal has a new update up over at FOX Sports. The trade rumor highlights:

Plenty of teams are interested in Brewers reliever Jose Capellan: the Giants, Rockies, Devil Rays, and Nationals. I’m surprised that Capellan was deemed unworthy of the Brewers’ pen; he gave them 70 decent innings last year. Rosenthal mentions that the Nats might convert Capellan back to a starter. A fine idea, as that’s how Capellan came up with the Braves. He just needs to get his curve and changeup tuned up.
The story on Mike Cameron remains the same: the Padres don’t want to go past two years. A few days from now the team should know whether a compromise can be reached. Maybe a middle-ground vesting option for 2010. He’s a good athlete; he’s not going to age as poorly as some guys. If he leaves, maybe the Pads would sign Aaron Rowand. UPDATE: Just saw Mr. Rosenthal on television, and he mentioned the Braves as a mighty fine fit for Cameron if he hits the market.
Rosenthal seems to hint that the Cubs should still get a five-year, $80MMish deal done with Carlos Zambrano, perhaps within a few months. At least, he’s urging them to close the deal despite the team being up for sale this summer.

Could Giants Hold Fire Sale?

By Tim Dierkes | April 7, 2007 at 11:27am CDT

Dave Del Grande of the Oakland Tribune hopes the Giants are out of the playoff chase by July. His plan: fire Brian Sabean, then trade Barry Bonds, Ray Durham, and Matt Morris. He’d like to hold the Bonds auction post-record – the best of both worlds for the Giants.

Here’s the thing about the Giants playing for 2010 – they’re stuck with a massive Barry Zito contract, and he’ll be earning $18-20MM a season for mediocre pitching at that point. Despite being a seven-year deal, it’s backloaded so the team can make one last run. Zito earns just $10MM this year, and the Giants have to take advantage.

They’re also tied down to Dave Roberts, Bengie Molina, and Randy Winn through 2009. Rich Aurilia is theirs through 2008. Could a new GM really unload every single contract? There are some really bad ones in here.

It might make more sense for the Giants to go all-out and make one last push this summer if they’re anywhere close. This has definitely been Sabean’s m.o. – his July acquisitions have included Jason Schmidt, Kenny Lofton, Sidney Ponson (he was good once, kids), and Randy Winn. All of those moves were designed to provide short-term boosts. Tim Lincecum will be a shot in the arm as well.

Let’s Make A Deal: Jorge Cantu

By Tim Dierkes | April 6, 2007 at 10:33pm CDT

Jorge Cantu DH’d for Triple A Durham last night, though his agent still refers to him as "an experienced second baseman with a power bat." Cantu, of course, would prefer to be traded to a team that would let him start in the big leagues again.

Which teams could use a second baseman? There’s the Braves, if you don’t believe in Kelly Johnson. Personally, I do. Ditto for the Mets and Jose Valentin, who I also think is at least as good as Cantu. There really aren’t any perfect fits for the guy. The Rockies seem reasonable, though they have guys they want to try first. And would they really want to pair their rookie shortstop with a defender like Cantu?

Given that Valentin is on a one-year deal, I have to lean towards the Mets. Minaya would only go for it if it was a bargain. Just guessing, but maybe a Jason Vargas or a Joe Smith would be sufficient?

It looks like B.J. Upton might be here to stay, so Cantu is going to have to regain some of his value at Triple A. The market for him should be fairly weak.

Let’s Make A Deal: Reed Johnson

By Tim Dierkes | April 6, 2007 at 9:10am CDT

Reed Johnson. He’s a 30 year-old outfielder who can play all three positions. He posted a .391 OBP as the Jays’ leadoff hitter last year. He doesn’t need to be platooned. He makes $3.075MM this year and has two years of service time left before free agency.

If there’s one team that can afford to compromise a little outfield defense, it’s the Jays. They’ve got two excellent athletes in Vernon Wells and Alex Rios. The DH spot is blocked with Frank Thomas, leaving no spot for young Adam Lind. Lind appears Major League ready – his PECOTA is .289/.349/.493 and he projects to be more valuable than Johnson in 2007. Lind’s defense is lacking, but the Jays can stomach that.

So which teams could use Reed Johnson? The Twins, Braves, Cardinals, and Marlins are possibilities. I think he could be a decent center fielder for the Fish, but they’d hesitate to take on his salary. The Braves seem content with their left field platoon, though I think Johnson would fit. The Cards also have some outfield questions, though Ricciardi hasn’t traded with John Schuerholz or Walt Jocketty before. The Dodgers had interest in Johnson in the past but the Brady Clark acquisition removes their need.

That leaves the Twins as my choice. They’re relying on the health of Rondell White and/or Jason Kubel in left, and they may want to trade Torii Hunter midseason. Alexi Casilla is ready to replace Luis Castillo as well, and Johnson could be used at leadoff while Casilla gets acclimated.

In return, the Twins could send one of their young starters to the Jays. Asking for Glen Perkins or Kevin Slowey seems like too much, but Scott Baker is buried on their starting pitching depth chart. He seems to have fallen out of favor after a half-season of 6.37 ball last year. While his home run tendencies are a poor fit for Rogers Centre, Baker did have a promising 3.9 K/BB last year. He’s 25 years old and seems like an appropriate bounty for Johnson. Thoughts?

Reading Material

By Tim Dierkes | April 5, 2007 at 11:13pm CDT

Rany Jazayerli of Baseball Prospectus explains his unhealthy obsession with knuckeballer Charlie Haeger. My favorite quote:

"To put it bluntly: what Charlie Haeger has already done—reached the major leagues before his 23rd birthday while throwing knuckleballs almost exclusively—is almost unprecedented."

CubDumb chips in with some stats you won’t find elsewhere – though a small sample, Haeger’s knuckler looked better than Tim Wakefield’s last year.

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