The grip that batting average seems to have on people is undeniable. I’m not trying to sound snarky here; I just think it’s crazy that hitting .380 for a week may be changing the public sentiment about Adam Dunn.
Lonnie Wheeler of the Cincinnati Post seems to be saying that Dunn’s strikeouts are…unprofessional. But I really don’t think it’s a lack of diligence or effort. Dunn just has an all-or-nothing style, which is easy to rag on when he’s going bad (his last two months of 2006 were awful).
A lot of players can post an unusually high batting average over a month or two’s time. David Newhan made a career out of a nice stretch in 2004. I still think Dunn’s going to hit .250 or so this year. He’s made contact in 71% of his ABs this year, as opposed to 65% last year and 69% the year before. All signs point toward regression, even with Brook Jacoby around.
Regardless of his batting average, I think Dunn’s $13MM option for 2008 is a no-brainer. PECOTA feels the same. But will Wayne Krivsky and the Cincinnati media agree? If not, Dunn could be traded this summer.
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