Dunn Changing Minds

The grip that batting average seems to have on people is undeniable.  I’m not trying to sound snarky here; I just think it’s crazy that hitting .380 for a week may be changing the public sentiment about Adam Dunn.

Lonnie Wheeler of the Cincinnati Post seems to be saying that Dunn’s strikeouts are…unprofessional.  But I really don’t think it’s a lack of diligence or effort.  Dunn just has an all-or-nothing style, which is easy to rag on when he’s going bad (his last two months of 2006 were awful). 

A lot of players can post an unusually high batting average over a month or two’s time.  David Newhan made a career out of a nice stretch in 2004.  I still think Dunn’s going to hit .250 or so this year.  He’s made contact in 71% of his ABs this year, as opposed to 65% last year and 69% the year before.  All signs point toward regression, even with Brook Jacoby around. 

Regardless of his batting average, I think Dunn’s $13MM option for 2008 is a no-brainer.  PECOTA feels the same.  But will Wayne Krivsky and the Cincinnati media agree?  If not, Dunn could be traded this summer.