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Archives for October 2007

Red Sox To Stop At Two Years For Lowell

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The Boston Globe’s Jackie MacMullan spoke to a Red Sox source who said the team would "balk at offering Mike Lowell anything more than a two-year deal."  Lowell is expected to get $10-12MM annually.

Since Lowell might be able to get four years guaranteed on the open market, it would be a large sacrifice to accept just two.  For what it’s worth, Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system expects Lowell to be worth $28.4MM over the next four years, $23MM over the next three, and $17.3MM over the 2008-09 period.  However PECOTA did project Lowell to hit .273/.333/.441 this year while he actually hit .324/.378/.501. 

Lowell’s awful 2005 looks like an aberration, but it still seems to scare the Red Sox.  I imagine they’d guarantee three years if Lowell had been decent in ’05. 

Odds and Ends: A-Rod, Posada, Cardinals

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A few articles that caught my eye this morning…

  • Scott Boras seemingly scoffs at the idea of Alex Rodriguez being forced by the Yankees to sign in November.  Reggie Jackson, a special adviser to the Yankees, thinks Rodriguez will top $300MM if he leaves.  Jackson takes a subtle shot at A-Rod for his lack of postseason heroics.  Rodriguez’s .279/.361/.483 career postseason line pales in comparison to Reggie’s .278/.354/.527.  Wait, no it doesn’t.
  • Barry Rozner thinks Jerry Reinsdorf could arrange for two blockbusters for his teams, netting Alex Rodriguez for the White Sox and Kobe Bryant for the Bulls.  Rozner thinks the $300 mil would come back five-fold.  Rozner manages to work in a shot at Aramis Ramirez, his second in two weeks.  What did Aramis do to Barry?  Anyway…I don’t consider the White Sox serious contenders for A-Rod. 
  • George King says Joe Torre’s departure is more likely to drive Jorge Posada away than Mariano Rivera. 
  • Bernie Miklasz talks about the Cardinals opening their wallet so far this offseason.  Is there a chance payroll could go past $115MM?

Mariano Rivera To Test The Market

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As you know, Joe Torre’s rejection of the Yankees’ weak offer may influence the thinking of Mariano Rivera.  The Journal News’ Peter Abraham has more on that angle:

Just spoke to somebody I know who is tight with Mariano Rivera. He said that Mo is more determined than ever to test the market after the developments of today.  Mo’s comment: “The Yankees are one of 30 teams now.”

Hank Steinbrenner has insisted Joba Chamberlain spend 2008 as a starter, heightening the Yankees’ need to make the best offer to Rivera.  Ultimately I think they will.  The guess from Jon Heyman was two years, $26MM plus an option year for 2010 for Rivera.  He could probably get three years guaranteed on the open market.

Rivera doesn’t think he could bear to put on a Red Sox uniform, so maybe the Yankees are one of 29 teams.  The Phillies plan to get in the mix for Rivera for sure.

Jose Guillen Likely To Reach Free Agency

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Nothing unexpected here – Jose Guillen’s agent, Adam Katz, indicated tonight that the player will decline his option for 2008.  The Mariners can exercise it at $9MM, but then Guillen has the right to void it and forfeit the $500K buyout.  That makes sense – at the bare minimum he’s looking at two years and $20MM.  More likely he gets three years from some team, despite his mercurial nature.  Mercurial is the word most often used to describe Guillen.  I’m not kidding – there are 430 Google results for "jose guillen mercurial."

The Mariners may yet give Guillen an extension; he did a solid job. 

Anyway, the most entertaining part of all of this comes courtesy of Jim Street’s MLB.com article:

When asked if there was a deadline to terminate the option, Katz snapped, "There is, but I’m a busy man and I don’t have time to look it up."

OK then.  Katz is probably occupied trying to find a team to take Sammy Sosa.

Odds and Ends

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More random rumors and reading material!

  • Baseball Prospectus’ Nate Silver discusses Ryan Braun’s undeniably terrible defense at third base, suggesting some interesting trade and signing permutations to get him into right field.  Also note that Kevin Kouzmanoff is a butcher at third; maybe the Friars will be in the market for Mike Lowell this winter (a player they’ve expressed interest in in the past).
  • Awesome headline for this Garrett Atkins article.  Steve King discusses how the Phillies would be a fine fit for a trade, throwing the Dodgers, Twins, Angels, and Astros into the mix as well.  Note that Atkins has a career line of .269/.344/.437 on the road and .336/.399/.528 at Coors.
  • Sid Hartman is hearing that Walt Jocketty could end up in Baltimore.
  • The Daily Herald’s Scot Gregor proposes some kind of Jon Garland for Bill Hall swap, or even a Carl Crawford acquisition by the White Sox.  I don’t think the Sox and Rays match up too well for that. 
  • I thought he’d stay, but Joe Torre has turned down a one-year, $5MM offer from the Yankees.  The proposal had another $3MM in incentives and a vesting option for 2009 if the Yanks won the ’08 World Series.
  • It’s Hiroshima or MLB for Hiroki Kuroda.  Apparently the Ms already have their eye on him.  Paul Sullivan also said recently that the Cubs will be in the mix.

Latest Silva, Hunter Rumors

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Aaron Gleeman and La Velle E. Neal III have combined for some good Twins rumorage in recent days.  Let’s catch up.

Neal had an interesting post yesterday with plenty of Twins hot stove banter.  The Twins have talked to Torii Hunter’s agent since he rejected their 3/45 offer, but have yet to tender a better offer.  The club is also talking to Carlos Silva’s agent as they’d like to retain him.  Neal feels that both players will at least test the open market.

Hunter has seemingly been connected to half the teams in baseball; you can see all posts involving him here.  Today Gleeman added another club to the mix: the Reds.  Gleeman’s source talks to Dusty Baker, who has suggested the Reds might be interested.  That’d create a definite outfielder surplus in Cincy.

Gleeman also weighed in on Silva’s asking price, which he expects to be in the $40MM range (I imagine over four years).  I agree…it’s a bleak market when Silva is one of the best available, but that’s just how it is this year. 

Ted Berg On Japanese Pitchers

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SNY’s Ted Berg has an informative blog post about Japanese pitchers who may come over to MLB for the 2008 season (found via MetsBlog).  Berg discusses the situations of Koji Uehara, Hiroki Kuroda, Kenshin Kawakami, Hitoki Iwase, Masahide Kobayashi, and Kazumi Saito.

So far only Uehara and Kuroda have been discussed here at MLBTR.  I’m planning to dig up some info on Iwase, but the other three guys are new to me.

Japanese position players to have on the radar include outfielder Kosuke Fukudome and shortstop Tomohiro Nioka.

Cashman Takes Firm Stance On A-Rod

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When we last heard from him eight days ago, Brian Cashman left himself some wiggle room to negotiate with Alex Rodriguez even if he opts out in November and the Yankees lose the Texas money.  The implication then was that higher-ranking club officials could overrule Cashman’s recommendation.

Yesterday, after the Yankees’ meeting of the minds in Tampa, Cashman took a firmer stance:

If Alex Rodriguez opts out of his contract then we will not participate in free agency.  That is accurate and that is definitive.

Why this is being aired out in public I’m not sure, but at this point the Yankees will seem kind of stupid if they do negotiate with Rodriguez after he opts out.  It really seems that they’re not kidding about not wanting to lose the Texas money or enter a bidding war.  Meanwhile Scott Boras just spent three full days convincing A-Rod to opt out.  However, Ken Davidoff believes that rather than opt out, A-Rod will sign an extension amounting to $297MM over nine seasons.

George King also revealed that Bobby Abreu’s $16MM option is at the bottom of the queue.  The Yanks will make decisions on Joe Torre, A-Rod, Mariano Rivera, and Jorge Posada first.

Stats Used For Elias Type A/Type B Free Agent Rankings

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In a November ’06 blog entry, ESPN’s Keith Law revealed a lot of good info about how Elias determines whether a free agent is Type A, Type B, or neither.

Keith was kind enough to reveal some additional info to me.  This will help us immensely in trying to guess types before they come out.  Everyone thank him and read his stuff at ESPN.

First let’s start with the positions Elias uses.  All players (not just free agents) are put into one of five groups as seen below.  Position is designated as the position at which the player appeared the most over the last two seasons.

  • Group 1: first basemen, outfielders, and designated hitters
  • Group 2: second basemen, third basemen, and shortstops
  • Group 3: catchers
  • Group 4: starters
  • Group 5: relievers

Here are the stat categories used for each of the five position groups.

  • 1B/OF/DH: PA, AVG, OBP, HR, RBI
  • 2B/3B/SS: PA, AVG, OBP, HR, RBI, Fielding percentage, Total chances at designated position
  • C: PA, AVG, OBP, HR, RBI, Fielding percentage, Assists
  • SP: Total games (total starts + 0.5 * total relief appearances), IP, Wins, W-L Percentage, ERA, Strikeouts
  • RP: Total games (total relief appearances + 2 * total starts), IP (weighted slightly less than other categories), Wins + Saves, IP/H ratio, K/BB, ERA

That is our starting point; I need to somehow get all players into the right position groups while listing all the appropriate stats for the 2006-07 seasons.  Then we can worry about adjusting for time spent on the DL and normalizing it to make 100 the top score for each position.  If anyone has all of this data in a spreadsheet and wants to help, drop me a line.

Hunter Interested In Nationals, Braves

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MLB.com’s Bill Ladson had an exclusive conversation with Torii Hunter tonight.  Nicely done Bill!

Ladson learned that Hunter is interested in playing for the Nationals or Braves because of the large African American populations in D.C. and Atlanta.  Hunter would like to be a leader in the community.  This is an interesting factor to consider when trying to guess Hunter’s next destination.  Detroit, Baltimore, St. Louis, and Cleveland have large African American populations as well.  However, the Tigers and Indians don’t need a center fielder.

Another reason Hunter likes the Nats is the presence of his buddy Dmitri Young.  Dmitri is the gift that just keeps on giving.

Also consider that Hunter said he’s thought about playing for his hometown Rangers "a lot a bit."  And the Twins might still make a reasonable four-year offer.  But remember that Hunter has expressed a "burning curiosity" to explore the open market.  He’s certainly keeping his options open – it’s definitely too early to call this one.  A wrinkle for the Braves besides the money would be losing the 18th overall pick next June to the Twins.

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