Free Agent Starters By Strikeout Rate
The free agent market offers fewer than thirty viable starting pitchers. If you’re looking for dominance, here’s how they rank by strikeouts per nine innings:
| Player | K/9 |
| John Smoltz | 11.57 |
| A.J. Burnett | 9.31 |
| C.C. Sabathia | 8.90 |
| Randy Johnson | 8.74 |
| Ryan Dempster | 8.15 |
| Oliver Perez | 8.14 |
| Randy Wolf | 7.90 |
| Ben Sheets | 7.45 |
| Bartolo Colon | 7.09 |
| Pedro Martinez | 6.93 |
| Andy Pettitte | 6.80 |
| Derek Lowe | 6.38 |
| Mike Mussina | 6.22 |
| Odalis Perez | 6.01 |
| Tim Wakefield | 5.81 |
| Jamie Moyer | 5.75 |
| Josh Fogg | 5.26 |
| Tom Glavine | 5.26 |
| Kyle Lohse | 5.06 |
| Brad Penny | 4.90 |
| Greg Maddux | 4.60 |
| Braden Looper | 4.37 |
| Kenny Rogers | 4.31 |
| Jon Garland | 3.96 |
| Paul Byrd | 3.89 |
| Mike Hampton | 3.83 |
| Sidney Ponson | 3.79 |
| Livan Hernandez | 3.47 |
A strikeout rate of 6.0 per nine or greater is considered decent. Only 14 free agents managed that so far. John Smoltz, Bartolo Colon, and Pedro Martinez are injury risks. Randy Johnson and Andy Pettitte aren’t true free agents in that they’re likely to be very selective about their teams (Smoltz and Mussina may also fit in this group). That basically leaves us with fewer than ten healthy pitchers with decent strikeout rates who are expected to hit the open market. These guys should fly off the shelves quickly.
Offseason Outlook: San Francisco Giants
We’re starting a new series for September/early October called Offseason Outlook. It’s kind of a merger of past series (Needs and Luxuries, Team Outlook).
Here’s how the 2009 Giants stack up (informed greatly by Lefty Malo):
C – Bengie Molina – $6MM
C – Steve Holm or Eliezer Alfonzo – $400K
1B – Travis Ishikawa – $400K
2B – Kevin Frandsen – $400K
SS – Emmanuel Burriss – $400K
3B – Pablo Sandoval – $400K
IF – Eugenio Velez – $400K
IF/OF – John Bowker – $400K
LF – Fred Lewis – $400K+
CF – Aaron Rowand – $8MM
RF – Randy Winn – $8.25MM
OF – Dave Roberts – $6.5MM
OF – Nate Schierholtz – $400K
SP – Tim Lincecum – $405K
SP – Matt Cain – $2.65MM
SP – Jonathan Sanchez – $400K
SP – Noah Lowry – $4.5MM
SP – Barry Zito – $18.5MM
SP/RP – Kevin Correia – $1.075MM+
RP – Brian Wilson – $400K
RP – Keiichi Yabu – $400K
RP – Alex Hinshaw – $400K
RP – Jack Taschner – $400K
RP – Merkin Valdez – $400K
RP – Billy Sadler – $400K
Non-tender candidates: Brad Hennessey – $1.6MM, Tyler Walker – $750K
Buyouts: Omar Vizquel – $300K
By my count, the Giants have roughly $64MM committed for the ’09 squad. The entered the ’08 season with a $76.6MM payroll, so they’ll have $12-13MM to spend if they hold the line.
The ’08 Giants rank 14th of 16 NL teams in OBP and 15th in SLG. Their starters rank 8th in ERA; their relievers 15th. I know ERA has its flaws but there’s no need to get too crazy with stats here.
The infield above is just one possible scenario; all four positions seem wide open. A veteran free agent would add stability; affordable possibilities include Rich Aurilia, Eric Hinske, Kevin Millar, Mark Grudzielanek, Nick Punto, and Adam Everett. If Brian Sabean wants to spend some serious coin, he can consider Jason Giambi, Mark Teixeira, Orlando Hudson, Orlando Cabrera, Rafael Furcal, Casey Blake, and Joe Crede. You have to figure the Giants acquire some kind of veteran infielder. Aubrey Huff, Adrian Beltre, Mike Jacobs, Kelly Johnson, and Jorge Cantu could be trade targets. They’ll probably add a reliever too.
A slugging infielder could also be targeted via trade, using a veteran outfielder or young pitching as bait. With Tim Alderson and Madison Bumgarner in the pipeline, the Giants may consider shopping Sanchez. His shoulder strain is a concern, but he’s due off the DL today. The lefty, 26 in November, ranks fifth in the NL in K/9. The Giants could pursue Brandon Wood, Reid Brignac, Dan Uggla, J.J. Hardy, Garrett Atkins, Kevin Kouzmanoff, or one of the Rangers’ catchers.
Odds and Ends: Olivo, Eckstein, Angels, Astros
Labor Day linkage…
- I did a Q&A with an Angels blog called The Halo Is Lit.
- Royals catcher Miguel Olivo patched things up with manager Trey Hillman. Olivo has a mutual option for ’09.
- David Eckstein is a borderline Type B player, but the D’Backs won’t get a pick unless they offer him arbitration and he declines and signs elsewhere. As of August 29th, Eckstein did not have Type B status anyway. By the way, the D’Backs designated Emiliano Fruto for assignment to make room for Eckstein.
- Needless to say, the Angels weren’t able to acquire a shortstop.
- Richard Justice thinks many Astros fans owe GM Ed Wade an apology.
- Patrick Newman has more info on Satoru Komiyama‘s mysterious breaking pitch, the shake.
Latest On Pedro Alvarez
Following along with the Pedro Alvarez saga…
- If you missed Cork’s update yesterday, start with that.
- Scott Boras fired back at Frank Coonelly, calling one of Coonelly’s comments "patently absurd." Dejan Kovacevic talked to GM Neal Huntington, who doesn’t expect a ruling until late September or early October.
- Huntington also noted that the Pirates will not renegotiate Alvarez’s deal, if that is somehow allowed.