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Offseason Outlook: San Diego Padres

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Your 2009 San Diego Padres:

C – Josh Bard – $2.2375MM+
C – Nick Hundley – $400K
1B – Adrian Gonzalez – $3MM
2B – Matt Antonelli – $400K
SS – Khalil Greene – $6.5MM
3B – Kevin Kouzmanoff – $410K
IF – Edgar Gonzalez – $400K
IF – Brian Myrow – $400K
LF – Chase Headley – $400K
CF – Jody Gerut – $700K+
RF – Brian Giles – $9MM or $3MM buyout
OF – Scott Hairston – $406K+
OF – Will Venable – $400K

SP – Jake Peavy – $11MM
SP – Chris Young – $4.5MM
SP – Cha Seung Baek – $400K
SP – Josh Banks – $400K
SP – Wade LeBlanc – $400K

RP – Heath Bell – $420K+
RP – Cla Meredith – $415K
RP – Clay Hensley – $410K+
RP – Justin Hampson – $403K
RP – Joe Thatcher – $400K
RP – Mike Adams – $400K
RP – Kevin Cameron – $400K

That’s $44.2MM committed, plus arbitration raises for Bard, Gerut, Hairston, and Hensley.  Maybe that’ll bring commitments to around $49MM.  This estimate includes them retaining Giles at $9MM.

ESPN’s Buster Olney says the Padres want to be in the $50MM payroll range for ’09, and Giles’ option will probably be declined.  The Padres could exercise his option and try to trade him, but Giles has 10-and-5 rights.

Olney also says the Padres will talk to Trevor Hoffman soon about a contract for ’09.  They might agree on $5MM or so, but then the Padres wouldn’t have room in the budget for Giles.

It’ll be a shame if the Padres slash payroll next year.  They were at $73.7MM in ’08; $20MM could buy a quality free agent or two for the rotation or infield.  2009 provides a nice window to field a competitive team in a weak division.  The salaries of Gonzalez, Kouzmanoff, Gerut, Peavy, Young, and Bell jump another $12MM or so in 2010.

If the Padres are so cost-conscious that they must discard an effective hitter like Giles, it may make sense to go all-in and sell off the young veterans too.  Gonzalez and Peavy are currently at peak value given their salaries, age, and performance.  Kouzmanoff and Young also have good trade value, though Greene is at a low point.

Note: two changes were made from the original post – information about Giles’ no-trade rights was added and Peavy’s ’09 salary was corrected.

Heyman’s Latest: Colletti, Maddux, Burnett

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The latest from SI.com’s Jon Heyman…

  • Dodgers owner Frank McCourt is "fixated" on the team’s recent unsuccessful free agent signings.  You have to wonder if he’ll direct Ned Colletti to exercise caution this winter.  Heyman’s sources say McCourt intends to stick with Colletti for ’09.
  • Greg Maddux is "said by friends to want to return next year."  Tim Keown wrote in April that Maddux told teammates this is his last season.
  • Heyman is now saying Larry Lucchino is likely to remain Red Sox president.
  • Heyman considers Hank Steinbrenner’s suggestion of interest in A.J. Burnett "the clearest example of tampering in recent history."
  • Miguel Olivo has a reputation as a player who does not get along with his manager.

Odds and Ends: Soto, Joba, Colletti, Tazawa

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Let’s dig in with today’s links!

Rosenthal’s Latest: Hendry, Burnett, Laird

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Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports has a new column up.

  • Rosenthal fills us in on Jim Hendry’s contract status: Hendry controls his own fate with an option for ’09.  If the new Cubs ownership doesn’t want to extend him beyond that, he could elect free agency this winter.  Click here to download a spreadsheet of Hendry’s trade history.
  • Teams with third basemen to trade this winter are at an advantage due to the weak free agent market.  Names like Garrett Atkins, Melvin Mora, and Hank Blalock could generate interest.  Blalock is a huge question mark though, and the Rangers still have to decide on his $6.2MM option.  Jorge Cantu, Adrian Beltre, and Kevin Kouzmanoff are other names to watch in my opinion.
  • Rosenthal talked to a rival executive who sees the Red Sox making a "major push" for A.J. Burnett if he opts out.  He can hindle the rigors of pitching in the AL East, and will also draw interest from the Yankees.
  • The Rangers may shop Gerald Laird this winter.  Laird, 29 in November, is under team control through 2010.  The Reds could be a nice match.
  • Marlins infielder Chris Coghlan can play second or third base, giving the Fish flexibility on whether they want to trade Cantu, Mike Jacobs, or Dan Uggla this winter.

Elias Rankings Updated

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Eddie Bajek over at Detroit Tigers Thoughts has added Elias rankings for American League starting pitchers.  Thoughts:

  • A.J. Burnett is comfortably a Type A, so the Jays should get a couple of nice draft picks if and when he opts out.
  • Yankees pitchers Andy Pettitte and Mike Mussina have Type A status (Mussina is on the borderline).  It makes sense for the Yankees to offer arbitration to both.
  • Jon Garland and Paul Byrd are Type Bs.  The Angels seem likely to offer Garland arbitration.
  • Kenny Rogers was not able to earn Type A or B status.

Free Agent OBP Leaders

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Many teams will be looking to add OBP-oriented players this winter.  The below chart ranks free agents by on-base percentage (.340 and above is considered solid).  I also included BB%, the percentage of plate appearances in which the hitter drew a walk.  This helps identify those whose OBPs may be deceiving because of reliance on batting average (Hairston’s .338/.388/.475 line is an example).

Player OBP BB%
Milton Bradley 0.445 16.6%
Manny Ramirez 0.424 12.7%
Mark Teixeira 0.409 14.3%
Brian Giles 0.393 13.0%
Adam Dunn 0.390 19.0%
Jerry Hairston Jr. 0.388 6.9%
Jason Giambi 0.376 13.9%
Ray Durham 0.375 12.2%
Pat Burrell 0.375 16.1%
Bobby Abreu 0.374 10.2%
Ramon Vazquez 0.372 10.9%
Raul Ibanez 0.370 9.5%
Orlando Hudson 0.367 8.8%
Doug Mientkiewicz 0.367 12.5%
Fernando Tatis 0.363 8.9%
Jamey Carroll 0.356 9.5%
Cliff Floyd 0.356 11.1%
Casey Blake 0.355 8.2%
David Eckstein 0.355 7.8%
Ken Griffey Jr. 0.354 13.9%
Frank Thomas 0.349 13.5%
Mark Grudzielanek 0.345 5.3%
Nick Punto 0.343 7.7%
Mark Kotsay 0.343 7.4%

Giambi and Bradley may hold strong appeal as players who can help a team’s OBP but may not require long-term commitments.  Vazquez and Tatis are a couple of interesting sleepers.  Are they one-year wonders?

Offseason Outlook: Seattle Mariners

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Let’s take a look at the ’09 Mariners.  They’ll have their new GM in place in time for the free agency period.

C – Kenji Johjima – $8MM
C – Jamie Burke – $435K
1B – Bryan LaHair – $400K
2B – Jose Lopez – $1.6MM
SS – Yuniesky Betancourt – $2MM
3B – Adrian Beltre – $12MM
IF – Tug Hulett – $400K
IF –
LF –
CF – Wladimir Balentien – $400K
RF – Ichiro Suzuki – $17MM
OF – Jeremy Reed – $400K+
DH – Jeff Clement – $400K

SP – Felix Hernandez – $540K+
SP – Erik Bedard – $7MM+
SP – Jarrod Washburn – $10.35MM
SP – Carlos Silva – $11MM
SP – Brandon Morrow – $400K

RP – J.J. Putz – $5MM
RP – Sean Green – $405K
RP – Mark Lowe – $400K
RP – Roy Corcoran – $400K
RP – Miguel Batista – $9MM
RP – R.A. Dickey – $400K
RP – Ryan Rowland-Smith – $400K

The Mariners have about $88MM committed, plus arbitration raises for Reed, Hernandez, and Bedard.  Not 100% sure on Reed’s eligibility.  We’ll estimate an additional $7MM in arb raises, bringing commitments to around $95MM.  The Mariners entered the season with a $117.6MM payroll.  That might mean $20MM+ to spend if they plan on being competitive in ’09.

The Mariners are 12th in OBP and 11th in SLG.  They’re 12th in starters’ ERA and 9th in reliever ERA.

This could be a tough club to rebuild, with a three-year window for Felix and several hard-to-move contracts.  Will a new GM step in and try to assemble a worst-to-first team for ’09?

I’m not sure why, but Johjima became a problem this year.  The best baseball move would be to eat most of the $24MM he has coming and try Clement and Burke behind the plate.  Not much can be done with the low-OBP middle infield; at least Lopez has been decent.  It may be difficult to upgrade on Beltre, so they should keep him unless a total rebuild is in order.

In the outfield, it’d make sense to flip Ichiro and Balentien.  Offensively the Ms are looking to fill the easiest positions – first base, left field, and DH.  They could take draft picks for Ibanez and consider high-OBP free agents like Jason Giambi, Milton Bradley, Manny Ramirez, Brian Giles, Adam Dunn, Pat Burrell, and Bobby Abreu.  Ideally, the Ms would dig up a high-OBP minor league veteran in the Dan Johnson/Brian Myrow/Josh Whitesell mold.

If you squint, you can envision a huge contract year from Bedard, more progress from Felix, and a breakout for Morrow.  The last two starting jobs could be determined on merit rather than salary, and a few bargain free agent pitchers could be signed as well.

Realistically the Mariners are not built to contend next year.  With Beltre, Washburn, Batista, and Bedard off the books after the ’09 season, it’d be logical to wait until then to remake the team (or trade these veterans for young players).  But the Mariners do have front-rotation pitching talent.  It would be interesting to see if a shrewd GM could wring a wild card out of it.

Odds and Ends: Eaton, Tazawa, Royals, Jays

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Today’s links…

  • SI.com’s Tom Verducci ranks the five best midseason deals of the past 25 years.
  • Peter Abraham thinks the Yankees should stick with Robinson Cano.
  • Pat Gillick says there’s a slight chance the Phils acquire a reliever this month.  He was not able to acquire Kyle Farnsworth in August.
  • MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan doesn’t put much stock in the rumor that Nolan Ryan will clean house in Texas.
  • Phillies GM Pat Gillick admitted signing Adam Eaton was a mistake.  Many MLBTR readers thought so when the signing was finalized in November of ’06.
  • The Red Sox hope to sign a Japanese amateur pitcher named Junichi Tazawa, which may not go over well with Nippon Professional Baseball.
  • Gil Meche, Joakim Soria, and Zack Greinke are pretty much off-limits.  Most other Royals are fair game in trade discussions.  GM Dayton Moore intends to make changes this winter, and may also dive back into the free agent market.
  • The Blue Jays have $15MM to spend, with needs at shortstop, first base/DH, and catcher.  GM J.P. Ricciardi would prefer to fill those holes internally.  Shysterball wonders why Ricciardi is talking about next year.
  • Michael Rosenberg says Ivan Rodriguez is all about the money.

Gammons’ Latest: Martin, Dunn, Quentin

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Here’s the latest blog post from ESPN’s Peter Gammons…

  • Takashi Saito is mentioned as a free agent this winter, but I believe it’s a situation where he can only re-sign, return to Japan, or retire.
  • Gammons heard talk that Russell Martin could be switched permanently to third base.  In that scenario, the Dodgers would sign a pitching-oriented catcher such as Jason Varitek.  Would that be a good move?
  • Adam Dunn knows it’s cliche, but he intends to prioritize winning over money when he hits free agency.
  • The D’Backs were asking a lot for Carlos Quentin last winter, with the White Sox, Red Sox, and Indians interested.  Josh Byrnes was not able to get Michael Bowden, Jed Lowrie, or Cliff Lee.  Arizona ended up getting Chris Carter from Chicago and flipping him to Oakland in the Dan Haren deal.  Carter mashed 39 home runs in A ball this year.  You can’t say the Diamondbacks gave Quentin away for nothing, since they acquired a crucial component for the Haren trade.
  • A year ago, Yankees GM Brian Cashman asked Joe Torre and his coaches their opinion on a Robinson Cano for Orlando Hudson swap.  Don Mattingly and Larry Bowa were heavily in favor of keeping Cano.

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