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2008 Free Agent Bargains and Busts (Hitters)

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Using Wins Above Replacement data from FanGraphs and contract info from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, I have determined the biggest free agent bargains and busts of the 2008 season (position players only).  I did my best to calculate what the player was paid in 2008, including bonuses and incentives.  Hopefully I didn’t miss anyone important; I used ESPN’s Free Agent Tracker.

Top Ten Bargains

  1. Willie Harris: +$14.6MM (paid $800K, worth $15.4MM)
  2. Jody Gerut: +$13.715MM
  3. Mike Cameron: +12.55MM
  4. Jorge Cantu: +$10.7MM
  5. Jerry Hairston Jr.: +10.375MM
  6. Milton Bradley: +10.3MM
  7. Eric Hinske: +$8MM
  8. Aaron Miles: +$6.9MM
  9. Rod Barajas: +$6.2MM
  10. Cesar Izturis: +$5.25MM

Top Ten Busts

  1. Andruw Jones: -$15.7MM (worth -$1.6MM, paid $14.1MM)
  2. Jose Guillen: -$11.1MM
  3. Jorge Posada: -$9.7MM
  4. Mike Lamb: -$9.4MM
  5. Corey Patterson: -$8MM
  6. Aaron Rowand: -$7.2MM
  7. Brad Wilkerson: -$6.9MM
  8. Omar Vizquel: -$6.5MM
  9. Torii Hunter: -$5.7MM
  10. Paul Lo Duca: -$5.1MM

A few notes…

  • Fair Value Award goes to Sean Casey, who signed for and was worth $800K.
  • Doug Melvin and the Brewers came out almost $20MM ahead with their signings of Cameron, Russell Branyan, and Jason Kendall.  The Cardinals, Astros, and Rangers also did well on position player free agents.
  • Ned Colletti and the Dodgers were the worst at a loss over $16MM, mostly due to Jones.  The Giants, Twins, and Yankees also did not fare well on position players.
  • The Nationals made a modest $1.2MM profit, because Jim Bowden’s Harris signing was negated by Lo Duca, Rob Mackowiak, Johnny Estrada, and Aaron Boone.
  • Of the eight free agent hitters who cost $10MM or more in 2008, six did not earn their salary.   

Giants Sign Randy Johnson

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The Giants have signed Randy Johnson to a one year deal, the team announced in a press release. Andrew Baggarly and Ken Rosenthal were both right on this one.

MLB.com’s Chris Haft heard from a baseball source that the deal guarantees the Big Unit $8MM in 2009 and includes performance bonuses that could reach $2.5MM and award bonuses that could reach another $2.5MM.  The AP agrees.

Johnson joins fellow-Cy Young Award winners Tim Lincecum and Barry Zito in a San Francisco rotation that also includes Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez.  It’s hard not to like the signing for the Giants; R.J. Anderson considers it a steal.

Odds and Ends: Teixeira, Dickey, Takahashi

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Links for Friday…

  • In the aftermath of the Yankees’ spending, Joe Posnanski reminds us that two thirds of MLB teams have won the World Series in the last 30 years.
  • UmpBump doesn’t like the idea of a salary cap.
  • FanGraphs now shows a hitter’s wins over replacement level, as well as the player’s dollar value.  You don’t need to be a stathead to enjoy this.  For example, here’s the Carlos Pena page.  Scroll to the bottom.  Value Wins shows he was worth 6.0 wins over replacement level in 2007.  That made him worth $24.6MM, but he earned just $800K.
  • If you are a stathead, you’ll like this 1981 SI article on Bill James.
  • A look at the only five players who should be considered within the first five picks of a fantasy baseball draft next year.
  • Mark Teixeira leftovers…Murray Chass says Tex and his wife didn’t want to live in Boston, while Kat O’Brien details the hard stance the Yankees took with Scott Boras.  The Nationals did everything they could to sign Teixeira, but he wanted to win now.
  • ESPN’s Keith Law explains why the draft pick compensation system is broken.  Brewers GM Doug Melvin had interesting comments on this in a recent Buster Olney blog.
  • The New York Times Company is trying to sell its stake in the Red Sox.
  • La Velle E. Neal III tries to figure out the Twins’ signing of knuckleballer R.A. Dickey.
  • Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker takes a closer look at lefty reliever Ken Takahashi.

Cardinals Payroll Developments

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Here’s a bit of "pure speculation" from Buster Olney: he wonders if the Cardinals have scaled back their payroll going forward.

Cardinals president Bill DeWitt III recently sounded reluctant to lower payroll, saying it would lead to a "spiral" he’d rather avoid.

The Cards have been patient on the free agent market so far, but the Mark Teixeira saga slowed everything down, so they could be more active soon. Now that they seem to have pulled their offer to Brian Fuentes, the Cardinals’ next steps will be telling.

Olney’s sources tell him that some teams have scaled back spending by as much as $20MM for next year and more may do the same as they project their revenues in the weakened economy.

Rockies Could Pursue Marquis

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Instead of "getting caught up in a bidding war" for Tim Redding with a few other teams, the Rockies could turn their focus to Jason Marquis of the Cubs according to Tracy Ringolsby of the Rocky Mountain News (via Bleed Cubbie Blue).

Ringolsby points to the durability that Marquis has shown and his ERA of 2.51 in five career Coors Field appearances to explain the Rockies’ interest. It’d also be fun to see Marquis at the plate in Denver, where he’s posted a .704 OPS in 29 PA’s as a hitter.

Marquis would likely be affordable for Colorado, since the Cubs "seem likely to eat roughly half" of the $9.9MM guaranteed to the righty in 2009.

The Mets have a similar strategy and would pursue Marquis if they can’t sign Redding.

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Teixeira

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On this date 89 years ago, the Red Sox sold Babe Ruth to the Yankees. The move may have come as a result of Ruth’s threat to not play until the Red Sox increased his salary from $10K to $20K.  The Red Sox received $100K and a $300K loan from the Yankees, using Fenway Park as collateral on the loan. It is believed that the Red Sox turned down an offer of Shoeless Joe Jackson and $60K from the White Sox. The best hitter to change teams this off-season is Mark Teixeira, who also spurned the Red Sox and joined the Yankees. The signing has caused quite a stir. Let’s see what is being written in the Blogosphere…

  • Ump Bump breaks down the winners and losers of the Teixeira signing.
  • Lizzy of Babes Love Baseball wonders why a salary cap would be so bad and feels NYC taxpayers should be pissed.
  • We Love DC had the sensors working overtime in their reaction to the Nats losing out on the Teixeira sweepstakes.
  • The Joy of Sox says it is just the Yankees being the Yankees, having committed over $1B, with a ’B’, in new contracts in the past 13 months.
  • Sully Baseball says there is no reason for Red Sox fans to panic, noting that all the Yankees have done this off-season is buy players that have never played in a big market and have no idea what the expectations are going to be.
  • Fire Brand of the American League explains why the Red Sox will be just fine without Teixeira.
  • Center Field says the Teixeira signing makes the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry interesting again.
  • Red Sox Fan from Pinstripe Territory is not worried, saying the Yankees are just trying to "buy second place." [CG – Who finished second in ’08?]
  • Surviving Grady points out that the Teixeira signing is good news for Alex Rodriguez’ delicate sensibilities.
  • Oriole Post says the Teixeira signing should convince everybody that baseball needs a salary cap.
  • Infield Chatter takes a look at eight teams most affected by the Teixeira signing.
  • Ed Valentine at Bugs and Cranks refuses to apologize for the Yankees doing everything they can to win and notes that unlike the Red Sox, the Yankees always do what is necessary to get the player they want.
  • River Ave. Blues and Bronx Banter point out that the increase in the Yankees’ payroll from ’08 to ’09 will only be negligible.
  • Sox and Pinstripes says the Yankees are just doing what the Red Sox did in ’07 prior to winning the World Series.
  • El Lefty Malo says Teixeira is like a tall glass of prune juice…Yep, these are our baseball blogs.

Cork Gaines writes for RaysIndex.com. If you have a suggestion for this feature, Cork can be reached here.

Orioles In “Serious Contention” For Kawakami

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According to Peter Schmuck of the Baltimore Sun, Orioles president Andy MacPhail "appears to be in serious contention to sign Japanese pitcher Kenshin Kawakami."  In another post, Schmuck explains why the Orioles would be pursuing a mid-rotation veteran.  Dave O’Brien recently wrote that the Braves are "squarely in the bidding," while the Twins are also in on him.  The Mets, Cardinals, and Red Sox are other suitors.

What kind of contract does Kawakami want?  The best we have is that "some teams fear" he wants to match Hiroki Kuroda’s three-year, $35.3MM deal.

Kawakami, 33, posted a 2.30 ERA and 4.48 K/BB ratio in 117.3 innings this year for the Chunichi Dragons.  He missed time with a strained back and was part of a six-man rotation.  The CHONE projections call for a 4.13 ERA (neutral park/league) for Kawakami in his MLB debut season.

Yankees Outfield Surplus

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According to Tracy Ringolsby of the Rocky Mountain News:

The Yankees are looking to move two from a group of outfielders of Xavier Nady, Nick Swisher and Hideki Matsui. The Angels, Texas, Oakland and Atlanta are considered to have interest.

Joel Sherman has noted that the Braves attempted to acquire Swisher from the White Sox before the Yankees did.  The Angels seem content with their outfield.  Sherman and Ringolsby both seem to think the Yanks prefer to retain Johnny Damon.

Sherman cautioned that the "glut of hitters" remaining on the free agent market will make it more difficult for the Yankees to move one of their corner guys.  From the emails I receive, Yankees fans would most like to see Matsui dealt.  Perhaps he will be, but I believe his current trade value is negative.  34 years old, full no-trade clause, $13MM salary in ’09, September knee surgery and a questionable ability to play the outfield.

Return to Yankees “Doubtful” For Pettitte

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FRIDAY: Kat O’Brien of Newsday: "The source said nothing had been finalized on Pettitte but that the Yankees were leaning toward no."

THURSDAY: After spending more than $400MM on C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and, of course, Mark Teixeira over the last few weeks, Andy Pettitte’s return to the Yankees is now "doubtful," a team official tells Mike Puma of the New York Post.

Pettitte has not yet responded to the Yankees’ original offer of a one-year, $10MM offer for 2009. The 36-year-old-lefty had a 4.54 ERA in 204 innings for the team in 2008.

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