Playoff Odds Update
The season's now two and a half months old, so it's a good time to check the current Playoff Odds report at Baseball Prospectus. When Tim analyzed these odds a couple weeks ago, there were eleven teams with less than a 10% chance of making the playoffs. Now, there are ten such teams, but since the Pirates are sitting right on 10%, essentially the same number of teams seems to be out of the race.
- Mariners – 9.5%
- Royals – 9.2%
- Braves – 8.8%
- White Sox – 5.4%
- Astros – 4.8%
- A's – 2.9%
- Diamondbacks – 2.0%
- Padres – 1.5%
- Orioles – 0.3%
- Nationals – 0.0%
These odds can change in a hurry, as the Rockies proved, but it takes a lot. This doesn't mean these teams will all become sellers, but it would be surprising to see any of these teams, even the Braves or Mariners, make the playoffs. Contenders will probably find that adding Nick Johnson or Aubrey Huff is simpler than dealing for players like Brad Hawpe, whose teams are back in the race.
Odds And Ends: Crow, Willis, Bay
More links for the afternoon…
- Aaron Crow, the Royals' first round draft pick, told MLB.com's Rustin Dodd that this year, he's focused on completing a deal and beginning to play. Last year, he was drafted by the Nationals, but didn't sign.
- Mike Hazen, the Red Sox Director of Player Personnel, told CMSB Media that the team has already begun working on the 2010 draft. Click the link to hear the entire interview.
- The most intriguing name in next year's draft class could be Bryce Harper. Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star says Harper should finish high school early if his "dream is to play pro ball, not flirt in homeroom."
- Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press would like to see the Twins try to acquire Robb Quinlan from the Angels.
- Steve Kornacki of MLive.com wonders whether the Tigers would release Dontrelle Willis and eat the remainder of this year's $10MM contract, plus the $12MM he's owed in 2010.
- Brett Perryman of the Dallas Morning News says the Rangers' number one priority should be to prepare players within the organization to carry the Rangers to the playoffs in "2010 and on."
- ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick says it's hard to imagine Jason Bay signing for less than $60MM over four years or $70MM over five.
- Jeff Gordon includes Reggie Jackson, Orlando Hudson and David Ortiz on his list of the best ever free agent bargains at AskMen.com.
- Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel wonders what the Brewers will do with the slumping J.J. Hardy.
- MLB.com's Brian McTaggart reports that the Astros have signed 22 of the players they drafted, including their second rounder, Tanner Bushue.
- MLB.com's Mark Sheldon has a corresponding list for the Reds, who also signed their second rounder.
Discussion: Should The Cards Extend Pujols Now?
Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch says the Cardinals should try to extend Albert Pujols' contract soon, instead of waiting until the first baseman becomes a free agent after 2011. Here's his reasoning:
- Already a two-time MVP with a batting title, a World Series win and the fourth highest OPS of all-time, Pujols could finish his career as the greatest right-handed hitter ever.
- He's a good defender and a smart baserunner.
- Cardinals fans love him and would be devastated to see their star leave.
- Baseball Prospectus projects Pujols to be an elite hitter well into his thirties.
- An injury between now and the end of the 2011 season could prevent him from playing, limit some elements of his game, or lower his market value.
- They can wait a year and a half and still have exclusive negotiating rights next winter.
- It's hard to imagine Pujols ever having more negotiating power than he does now.
What do you think the Cardinals should do?
Heyman On Valentine, Strasburg, Atkins
Jon Heyman of SI.com reports that the Nationals have already begun searching for a long-term manager, even though Manny Acta remains in charge. Here's what Heyman's hearing about a Nationals team that's been the center of attention recently:
- The Nationals are considering Bobby Valentine, who has a history of transforming losing teams into winners. Valentine's managing the Chiba Lotte Marines now, but they're not expected to bring him back after the season ends in November.
- Acting GM Mike Rizzo, is expected to become the full-time GM eventually.
- One small-market GM said he would have been prepared to spend $15-20MM on Stephen Strasburg if the phenom has slipped to his team on draft day.
- Heyman says the record-setting bonus Strasburg will receive won't change bonuses as we know them because he's an exceptional player who can demand more than others.
- Now that Jake Peavy's hurt and the Padres won't be able to deal him soon, no-trade clauses seem less appealing to GMs. Braves GM Frank Wren doesn't hand them out, and he says it's never prevented him from signing a player.
- It still doesn't look like Roy Oswalt will be dealt.
- The market for Brad Penny hasn't been great so far, but he could be more appealing to teams, without Peavy and Oswalt as options.
- Garrett Atkins makes $7MM, so it's not likely he'll be traded, but the Rockies may decide they're buyers, rather than sellers, if they continue to win.
- Jonathan Sanchez is on the market, but some scouts aren't impressed with his stuff.
- The A's plan to build around their young pitching.
Smoltz Hopes To Keep Pitching After 2009
Pedro Martinez isn't the only future Hall of Fame pitcher who hopes to play after 2009. John Smoltz told Rob Bradford of WEEI.com that he wants to keep pitching after this season and expects to be able to now that he's recovered from a torn labrum. He said he can see himself pitching "well beyond" this year.
Pedro’s Working Out, Hopes To Play Until 2011
Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald heard from a source close to Pedro Martinez that the pitcher is working out six days a week in hopes of playing for a contender in 2009 and beyond. Apparently Pedro would like to sign before the end of the month, go on a short minor league assignment and return to pitch after the All Star break. He doesn't want this season to be his last, either. Pedro would like to pitch through 2011.
Olney On Wilson, Johan, Harper
ESPN.com's Buster Olney says the Red Sox could take advantage of the shortage of teams willing to take on payroll by offering little more than salary relief to their trading partners. Rival executives told Olney that the Red Sox could offer to take on the salary owed to players like Jack Wilson, without including any highly touted prospects in proposed deals. Here are a couple more details from Olney's column:
- It's looking more and more like Bryce Harper will be eligible for next year's draft and it's looking more and more like the Nationals will again select first. Olney wonders how the Nationals would cope with talks of record-setting deals for two straight years.
- Olney shows that Johan Santana is throwing slower fastballs, and not as many of them.
- Cause for concern? Jon Heyman of SI.com asked a Mets "bigwig" and heard that the team is "not at all" worried about their ace pitcher.
Odds And Ends: Peavy, Acta, Harper
Some links for Monday morning…
- Scott Miller of CBS Sports says the Padres made a mistake last offseason when they rejected the package the Braves offered for the now-injured Jake Peavy.
- Chico Harlan of the Wahington Post goes through the pros and cons of firing Manny Acta. More than half of his readers don't think it's time for a firing yet.
- ESPN.com's Jason A. Churchill says Bryce Harper will be the "clear No. 1 talent" if he's eligible for next year's draft, as planned.
- Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that the A's haven't started contract talks with their first round draft pick, Grant Green.
- Tony Massarotti of the Boston Globe asks his readers what the Red Sox should do with their excess pitching. We broke down several of their options last week, which Massarotti considers. He adds one of his own: Tim Wakefield could pitch out of the 'pen.
A’s Inquired On DeRosa, Didn’t Like Price
Eric Chavez will have career-jeopardizing back surgery. He could return in time for Spring Training 2010, but Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle says the A's are considering other options at third base in the meantime. They inquired on Mark DeRosa, but believe the Indians are asking for too much in return. The A's could pursue DeRosa after the season and Slusser adds that Chone Figgins is a likelier free agent target.
D’Backs Could Deal, But Don’t Expect Them To
Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports that there's no reason to expect the D'Backs to trade the likes of Felipe Lopez and Doug Davis away, even if they decide they're willing to part with their impending free agents. The D'Backs could eventually investigate deals, but they aren't doing so now. Instead, they're focusing on getting as much production as possible from the players they have.