Some Tuesday night links…
- Tim Brown of Yahoo! Sports tweets that neither Tim Lincecum nor the Giants have budged in their negotiations, and his arbitration hearing is set for Friday.
- MLB.com's Steve Gilbert reports (via Twitter) that the Diamondbacks and Edwin Jackson still haven't made any progress towards an agreement. Their arbitration hearing is now just eight days away.
- In addition to having interest in Russell Branyan and Jermaine Dye, the Indians are also talking to Hank Blalock, reports Rosenthal. He adds that the Blue Jays are also in on Branyan.
- In a pair of tweets, Rosenthal passes along the incentives in Erik Bedard's contract. They lefty could bring in $500K each for 14, 17, 20, 23, and 26 starts, plus $600K for every 25 innings after 75.
- Meanwhile, Jon Paul Morosi and Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com report that Damon hasn't moved off his demand of a two-year deal. Good luck with that, Johnny.
- Morosi and Rosenthal also report that the Rangers and Mets appear to be "hamstrung by complications at the ownership level," meaning they're approaching their payroll limits.
- ESPN's Jerry Crasnick tweets that Astros' GM Ed Wade said the team has some interest in bringing Willy Taveras back on a minor league deal. Oakland released Taveras today.
- Jeff Zrebiec of The Baltimore Sun (via Peter Schmuck) spoke to Orioles president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail, who indicated that the team has not had recent talks with the agents for Jarrod Washburn or Chien-Ming Wang. The O's were linked to both pitchers earlier today.
- MLB.com's Corey Brock says (via Twitter) that it's "highly unlikely" that the Padres will sign Japanese lefty Hisanori Takahashi. Several teams reportedly offered the southpaw a minor league contract.
I think Willy would actually fit well on the ‘Stros.
He was solid on the Stros already. Trade chip? Since their outfield is set with Pence, Bourne, and the 18mm manatee that is on loan from Sea World
I was just laughing like crazy after what you called Lee.
I was kind of hoping the Padres would sign Takahashi. Oh well.
at this point, Johnny may say that my slow pitch softball team is at the top of his list
At this point I’ll be surprised if Damon signs before spring training starts.
Yeah, “I hope. They are definitely a team that is on top of the list.” should probably be read as “they are a team that might actually give me a job”
Since Atlanta starts with the letter “A” and Braves start with “B” we could on the top of many lists and or categories.
Sign him, Frank.
This man crush O’Brien has on Damon is starting to getting old. Hopefully this turn into another false report of braves signing Damon like Griffey Jr. last year.
So how are the Mets out of money….when they haven’t spent any? Their payroll is down 20 mil from last year and only 10 mil is going to Bay this year….this a BS excuse for the Wilpons being cheap and missing out on free agents
Yeah, I don’t know what happened to all their money either.
-B. Madoff
I’m sorry, but I don’t see the point in the Braves signing Damon. The dude can’t throw, he can’t play defense, he got moved out of the lead off spot for losing speed, and he hit home runs in Yankee Stadium with their short fence. He’d be lucky if he hit 10 home runs while with the Braves.
Even with all that said, Damon would be your best OF’er in ’10 if signed.
Damon has hit 10 or more HR’s in a season while playing for the Red Sox, Yankees, and Royals. He has only ONE year (since 1998) where he DIDN’T hit more than 10 HR’s. He has hit 20+ HR’s 3 times in the last 6 years. Just looking at his away stats in 09 – played over a full year he would have hit 15 HR’s without any help for the new Yankee stadium.
He was moved from the lead-off spot to allow Jeter to go first. Unless you have a Jeter on your team (which you don’t) Damon would be your lead-off hitter.
Damon will easily give you a 280/360/450 line with 20+ SB’s. That’s not too shabby for a guy who can be had for less than $5m. And while his arm is terrible, his range isn’t. Even with his defensive warts the guy is vastly superior to Melky Cabrera.
If he can do what he did before the new Yankee Stadium, I will welcome him with open arms. And, if he can get his 2007 and 2008 LF numbers back, that would be great. And, if he can get his 2000 Win Probability back, I will walk up to him, and apologize for insulting him.
Every OF on the Braves is superior to Cabrera except for maybe Blanco.
What about Nate? Defensive skills combined with sweet bow fighting skills could handle the Cobra Kai dojo as long as Johnny holds his ground in batting average
“And while his arm is terrible, his range isn’t.”
Debatable.
i’m in favor of damon to the braves at the expense of melky cabrera, not jason heyward. johnny damon makes the braves better if melky cabrera is traded. johnny damon does not make them better if melky stays and heyward sits in AAA. a johnny damon, nate mclouth, and matt diaz outfield would be above average offensively, but would royally suck defensively. a damon/diaz, mclouth, and heyward defense would be average to above average defensively and potentially a top 5 nl offensive outfield.
i realize the “keep heyward in AAA” for a couple of months to avoid super 2 status to counter the above thought. however, if damon is signed by the braves, there’s no way in hell that the braves could possibly keep damon, diaz, mclouth, melky, and heyward come may.
Johnny Damon has the worst arm in baseball. Why would any national league team want him? Other than pinch hitting in Yankee’s stadium a couple times a year… The Braves don’t really need outfield help, unfortunately for them, they made a terrible trade and acquired obnoxious little Melky Cabrera who probably won’t do much in a starting role and without all those great hitters around him, but he is a good defender. Also, isn’t this Bobby Cox’ last year? I sure hope so, I’m tired of hearing how brilliant he is for sending Maddux, Smoltz, and Glavine to the mound, I would’ve done that, does that make me brilliant?
funny thing is, Why wasn’t any of this said when Garret Anderson came here? He didnt have a good arm, he don’t have good speed, he always showed he didnt wanna be here with that stupid look on his face. That position has been a weak spot for the braves since last year. With Johnny Damon, the braves would have a good lead off man compared to what they had last year (sorry Mcclouth, just the truth). Just give the guy a chance to prove it. And, at around 2 million a year? maybe for 2 years? even for Damon you know you couldnt ask for any better then that.
Braves 2010 lineup.
Damon
Prado
Chipper
Glaus
McCann
Escobar
McClouth
Heyward/Diaz/Cabrera
P
Prado
McLouth/Damon (let them win it)
Chipper
McCann
Glaus
McLouth/Damon
Escobar
Diaz/Cabrera until Heyward is ready
Good lineup.
Boras is a lot smarter than I am, so he must have some sort of brilliant plan for Damon, but as of now, I can’t figure out what it is.
Taveras is low risk enough for the stros who lack speed greatly. Branyan does’nt make too much sense unless the Jays move Overbay or maybe 2 of the pitchers. I can see Dye going to the Indians but its gonna fall a ways short of the 3.3M he thought he would get.
As for Damon, theres no reason for any team besides NYY to consider him on longer than a 1 year deal. Cincy or Oakland or Atlanta or whoever does not need another bad contract next offseason.
Washburn should sign with the M’s. Its the best fit for him, and if he proves himself a rotation of King Felix/Cliff Lee/Erik Bedard/Jarrod Washburn and Rowland-Smith/Snell could be very formidable in that spacious park.
i’m pretty sure if you’re projected rotation holds up then they are easily in the top 5 in baseball for top rotations
Agreed. At this point I would probably go with the rotation ranking of:
1.Boston
2.New York Yanks
3.Seattle
4.Philly
5.LAA
Arizona has the potential to crack the rankings as do the Giants and Cards but I would likely bet that one of those top 5 rotation teams will win the World Series in 2010
LAA? Really? Philly is pushin it.
Saunders/Santana/Kazmir/Pineiro/Weaver all have 15+ win potential. If they get it together, I can see it being overall better than Seattles. As for Philly it really hinges on Hamels returning to World Series MVP form.
I agree, SF has to be higher than LAA.
Seattle has 2 pitchers. Philly has 1 and 2 1/2’s. LAA has no ace, but 5 3-hole pitchers, which could work. Braves have a top 3 1-5 at least. If Hudson, their ace, can do as well as Javier did last year, they should easily be in the top of that list somewhere. Your D-backs should earn an honorable mention. Dodgers have two possible Aces, but other than that their rotation isn’t for sure. Cards have two great pitchers, but other than that, nothing to be overly joyed about.
I’d say:
1. Boston
2. Braves
3. Yankees
4. Rays
5. Marlins
6. White Sox
(I couldn’t decide between Marlins and White Sox, especially going by memory. I’m too busy this morning to look throw 10 teams)
Other than the top 3, it’s a toss-up with a few teams.
Honorable mention: LAA, Cards, Dodgers, D-Backs, Phils
Hmm, skipped my mind, but Giants still have one of the best rotations as well.
So, 1. Boston 2. Braves 3. Yanks 4. Giants 5. Rays.
Out of all pitching staffs last year, the top 5 were NL, but that just regards ERA and AL has the DH. It just looks like you picked all the teams that you thought were the best.
Truly, I did forget the Braves and White Sox in the conversation. But I still believe the potential of Halladay/Hamels/Happ/Blanton is a lot better than what Florida or what the Rays have.
Re rankings
1.Boston
2.New York(Cant say the Braves beat them, those top 4 are incredible.)
3.Philly
4.Braves
5.LAA (that rotation has the potential to be deadly
6.White Sox
7.Mariners
8.Arizona
9.Cardinals
10.Giants
11.Rockies(the potential is high, big question mark on Hammel though)
Cant put dodgers, not with padilla and an unknown 5. Cant put Marlins too many injury question marks. Same with Minnesota and Tampa.
Why are the Blue Jays in on Branyan when they have Lind, Overbay, and Wallace in the 1B/DH positions already?
lind and snider in the corner OFs, branyan to DH, overbay at first. definitely one of branyan or overbay would be dealt at the deadline then you call up wallace.
Cito said that Lind would most likely be the DH come opening day which would put Bautista at one of the corners. I’ll take Lind in left and Snider in right if it were my pick. Branyan shouldn’t even be signed. Wallace should be the opening day first baseman with Overbay at the DH.
True, that does seem to make Branyan a good fit, and the Jays could smack some HRs and maybe steal some wins that people didn’t quite expect. I do think they will try to move Overbay simply due to the fact that this is the peak of his trade value as far as the rest of his career is concerned.
Wallace is the future and there is no guarentee that he will be ready to be a big league force this season, but he is about at the point where they need to get him ABs and innings at 3B. They may move Branyan and Overbay and go with Encarnacion in the OF and Snider at 1B with Wallace at 3rd. I feel this is more likely since the Jays probably envision Wallace as their future 3B.
Ruiz, dopirak, and snider would probably fill those roles too
Yeah add those 3. Dopriak..Ehhhhh…I’m not so sure he comes before Snider and Ruiz.
Uhh, off topic, but did the site prompt anyone else for a password about 5 minutes ago?
Lincecum 2/100. Get it done.
How funny…
“Jon Paul Morosi and Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com report that Damon hasn’t moved off his demand of a two-year deal. Good luck with that, Johnny.”
Why should Johnny move off his ridiculous demands? According to Boras, Johnny had 4 or 5 offers instantaneously after it was clear that the Yanks weren’t going to resign him. Of course, Johnny and Boras didn’t gobble up any of “those offers,” either.
2 things, how did tim lincecum not get super 2 status thus allowing every other team to go after him?(Im pretty sure thats how super 2 works) …Secondly when you have a back to back cy young award winning pitcher who has multiple left in the tank. Is no where near his ceiling and only in his low 20’s why would you not take the “risk” of committing 10 yrs and 150-200+ million to the guy? He is easily one of/ if not the best right handed pitchers in the game and has room to grow too(SCARY). The fact that they are going to a hearing for his arb is nuts…and if it were any other team could possibly get the GM fired….I know they are cautious after the whole zito thing but still
Thats not how super two works.
From mlb.com
A player with three or more years of service, but less than six years, may file for salary arbitration. In addition, a player can be classified as a “Super Two” and be eligible for arbitration with less than three years of service. A player with at least two but less than three years of Major League service shall be eligible for salary arbitration if he has accumulated at least 86 days of service during the immediately preceding season and he ranks in the top 17 percent in total service in the class of Players who have at least two but less than three years of Major League service, however accumulated, but with at least 86 days of service accumulated during the immediately preceding season.
All super two means is that he is arb eligible four times, instead of three (in his second year, hence “Super TWO”). You have to be in the top 17% of service time in your second year. And unfortunately (because I’m a Dbacks fan), no team can go after him unless it’s in a trade (which won’t happen, again, unfortunately). Every player is controlled for 6 seasons in the majors.
There’s a link on the right side of the page that says “Hot Stove Glossary” under “MLBTR Features.” It has a bunch of different definitions.
Super-Two doesnt work like that. It means the player starts arbitration after two seasons and ends up with four years or arbitration overall instead of three.
“why would you not take the “risk” of committing 10 yrs and 150-200+ million to the guy?”
Two words – Dontrell Willis. Dont like those two, then try Mark Prior. Or Kerry Wood or many others.
“The fact that they are going to a hearing for his arb is nuts…and if it were any other team could possibly get the GM fired”
Willis was given the highest mark for a (first year Arb) pitcher in a case, at about 4.5 million. Papelbon has the highest mark ever agreed upon (by team and player) to a first-year arbitration pitcher at 6.25 MM. Both those players had arguably just as strong cases as Time will. Its actually quite possible they award him the Giants offer of 8 MM.
Did I just see you compare Willis to Lincecum? Lincecum has won two, count them, two CY Young Awards in his first three seasons, which no one else has done. Willis won Rookie of the Year, which does not put him anywhere close to Lincecum’s level. Prior, Wood, and the many others don’t compare to Lincecum. Another thing, Lincecum is a starter, Papelbon is a reliever, so no point of bringing him up.
Although Lincecum has two CYA’s, Willis could have very easily had one in 2005 if not for Chris Carpenter. Willis had 11 first place votes to Carpenter’s 19. Both Willis and Lincecum were two-time all stars in their first three seasons. Dontrelle also won ROY which DOES say something. Lincecum started in one All Star Game. Sure, they aren’t dead even buth don’t say they aren’t near the same levels.
baseball-reference.com/players/w/willido03.shtml
baseball-reference.com/players/l/linceti01.shtml
Zito is also an excellent example. Great numbers early on. Look at him now. He struggles to keep an ERA below 4.50.
baseball-reference.com/players/z/zitoba01.shtml
Although he is not a good case for this argument, Lincecum is very comparable to Roy Oswalt (43-17 w/ a 2.92 ERA average over his first three seasons)
Yes, Oswalt is a near perfect clone of Lincecum at this junction of their careers.
502 IP, 84G/75S, 2.92 ERA, 1.139 WHIP, 151 ERA+, 0.8 HR/9, 4.00 SO/BB – Oswalt
598 IP, 90G/89S, 2.90 ERA, 1.151 WHIP, 152 ERA+, 0.5 HR/9, 3.12 SO/BB – Timmy
People seem to forget his being that dominating as well. Its almost funny that so many people dont recognize this Lincecum-type hype happening every 3-4 years. I guess it has to be chalked up to the information highway making it more accessible plus prior phenoms falling well short of the first-ballot HOF production they were pegged to provide almost without doubt.
What would be really interesting is to figure out how many of these 3-4 year runs rookie pitchers have provided, and the percentage of them to go onto careers even somewhat resembling expectations.
Yeah, as InTheKZone and kingjd36 expanded on, the two really are comparable in the areas an arbitration panel would focus (which was what I originally stated). But to expand on his comparisons a little bit, look at some numbers which would almost certainly be presented – 594 IP, 3.27 ERA, 46 Wins, 93 Starts, 11 CG, 7 Shutouts for Willis and 598 IP, 2.90 ERA, 40 WIns, 89 Starts, 6 CG, 3 Shutouts for Timmy.
Your questioning it is almost ironic though as it kind of hits home why you dont go overboard and give extremely long contracts to young dominant pitchers – 5 years later people might not even remember they were ever dominating forces.
Also, youre kidding yourself if you dont think Prior and Wood and endless others compare. And Papelbon might be a reliever but he also posted quite possibly the most dominant 4 year stretch of any closer in the history of the game. Paplebon as arguably the greatest 4 year run for a closer ever is in the comparable bin to Lincecum with a very impressive 3 year run that pretty much matches what we see from a starting pitcher every 3-4 years on average.
Willis was a young lefty with a deceptive delivery and good stuff who made 2 all-star teams in his first 3 years. Also happened to finish 2nd in the CY voting in his 3rd year after compiling a 2.63era at age 23 over 236.1 innings along with those 22 pearly wins. 7CG, 5 SHO.
Thats at 23 years old. Lincecum just pitched 2009 as a 25 year old. It just doesn’t make sense to sign a pitcher for a lot of years and a lot of money. You’ll end up conceeding your chance to win when (more like if) he doesn’t pitch like one of the top 5 in the league year in and year out since you’re paying him $20m+ a year. Pair him with Zito’s 18M AAV and you’re talking $40m committed to 2 guys who only play in about 1/3rd of your games the whole season.
Anyone have any idea if clubs can get insurance on these big, long contracts? If so what does it cost? All clubs have to look at Zito, Willis and others and protect themselves as best they can. Tigers are financially hamstrung this year with the contracts they have and they won’t be competitive against Twins/Whiteys. Same with the Mets, big contracts top five in payroll in the majors, and a last place team.
Can we please stop with these insane takes on Johnny Damon? Right now Damon is unemployed moreso because he and Boras misread the market and were out of their minds with demands. The fact that Damon hit 17 of his 24 of his HR’s on the road is blown out of proportion. It wasn’t the 1st time in his career that he hit 24 hrs. He did so during his 1st year as a Yankee in 2006. This idea that he would have to settle for a ST invite is ludicrous. He won’t come near getting his requests but the idea that he has to audition for a job is a joke.
Had Damon/Boras been more realistic in the beginning and if 99% of the GMs had thought they had an honest shot of luring Damon away from the Yankees is there really ANY doubt by ANYONE that Damon could’ve signed, at minimum, a 2/$10 mil deal with another team back in December? If Coco Crisp could pry a 1/$5.25 mil guaranteed deal with an option for $5.75 mil from the A’s then I’m sure Damon could’ve had a guaranteed deal for at leas 2/$10 mil at the winter meetings.
Damon’s greatest obstacle is time. And getting a two year big money deal from a team 1 week before ST is like asking your buddy for a $100 loan .on the Monday after you all had an unlucky weekend in Vegas. Not happening
it’s not so much free agency and lack of salary cap that has hurt/is hurting MLB.
Same as with the NHL, it’s guaranteed contracts.
Any contract over five years for the elite level talent is ridiculous. Better to pay the bonuses up front. And perhaps no position in all of sports is harder/riskier to project than pitching.
(Of course, in either scenario there will still be stupid GMs and owners!)
BTW, anybody have any idea of where Mark Prior is at?
love to see him beat the odds, even if it is as a shutdown holder, 7th- or 8th-inning guy