Links for Friday…
- Tim Dillard, who was designated for assignment earlier in the week, cleared waivers, according to Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (via Twitter).
- Don't expect the Twins to add much to their 2010 payroll. GM Bill Smith tells Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune that the team is nearing the "upper extremes" of what it can spend (Twitter link).
- The Blue Jays are no longer in on Carlos Delgado, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post.
- Dave Cameron of FanGraphs says the Twins had one of the best offseasons in baseball.
- Alex Anthopoulos doesn't expect to trade any of his relievers before the season starts, tweets MLB.com's Jordan Bastian. However, the Jays GM points out that things can change.
- WEEI.com's Alex Speier compares Victor Martinez to similar catchers to hit free agency in recent years. Speier writes that after this season V-Mart could be in line for a four-year $40MM deal like the ones Ivan Rodriguez and Jason Varitek signed. Some consider Martinez a first baseman going forward, which would make him a "completely different animal" in the eyes of interested teams.
- Those small market Twins will open the season with a payroll of about $96MM, writes Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune.
- Derek Jeter hits free agency after the season and Hank Steinbrenner says we can "pretty much assume" what will happen at that point given Jeter's place in Yankee history (link from the Philadelphia Daily News).
- Padres GM Jed Hoyer tells Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald that he hasn't ruled out signing Adrian Gonzalez long-term. That seems unlikely given the offers Gonzalez could demand as a free agent.
- MLB.com's Bill Ladson tweets that Adam Kennedy will be the Nats' everday second baseman, which likely leaves Cristian Guzman at short.
- Now the Nats will look for a veteran starter, tweets Ladson.
- Jesus Guzman cleared waivers and will receive an invitation to Giants Spring Training, tweets Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle. The Giants designated the infielder for assignment in late January.
- Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star tweets that Jarrod Washburn may be too expensive for the Royals.
- Joel Sherman of the New York Post notes that some within the Dodgers organization called Orlando Hudson "Slow-Dog" because they were surprised he wasn't faster. Some Dodgers officials believe Hudson's defensive reputation is better than it should be.
SLOW DOG!! hahahahaha, wanna bet Manny came up with that? see the irony??? thats classic!
He’s still a great player. I thik Victor Martinez’s ability to play catcher will net him more money.
If he repeats the 14% CS then I dont know how many teams will see him as a catcher moving forward.
Anthopolous will get more value now from his relievers than he would mid-season.
what about if some closer gets hurt for the season they would have more leverage and would get more.
To label Orlando Hudson “Slow-dog” in a division that contains Bengie Molina is more than just a little ironic, I’d say.
It is true though that his defensive reputation is better than the reality. He’s certainly still a sure handed fielder, he’s just lost a couple steps over the last few years and is merely a league average 2B at this point in his career.
Exactly this. Hudson wasn’t as fast or quick as say Utley at 2B, but he was so sure-handed that whenever something went near 2B I was confident Hudson would get the out.
Anyone calling him Slow-Dog hasn’t had to watch Luis Castillo the past 2 and a half years. I would have offered him a second year option. Imagine… Hudson signing for longer than a year…
Well, fans can beef about Castillo for other reasons, but at least he got 20 steals last year. As Muggi pointed out below, base stealing is not exactly the O-dawg’s forté. He had 8 last season, and the most he’s has had in any year is 10.
With a healthy Reyes, Wright, and Pagan/Beltran, we can steal bases. I would rather have a guy that can knock the ball around in that 2 spot than a slap hitter with his fingers crossed.
About Castillo, I know. I just think it’s fair to see the positive side of him too.
As for stealing bases, I’m not disputing that we can. However what you are projecting in that department is a lot to ask from a team with so many of its speedy core players just coming off injury…particularly since Beltrán is once again out of the picture for a time. Also, if Gary Matthews Jr. becomes the principal [interim] CF, there goes Angel Pagan’s speed contribution — right out the window!
Signing Kennedy and keeping Guzman effectively blocks Ian Desmond, at least for the start of the season.
That I think is what was intended. It’s been reported that there was a strong belief among at least some in the Nats’ front office that Desmond was not yet ready for the majors (especially on defense) and should open the season in AAA Syracuse. Apparently Mike Rizzo was one of those and has now arranged things that way.
I don’t understand it at all. Do the Nats really think that Adam Kennedy is going to help them compete? They just signed a below average 2nd baseman who will also block a prospect who should be ML ready.
Desmond is 24 with over 6 years in the minors. He’s not going to magically learn how to become a gold glove shortstop in a couple months. Give him a chance to see if he’s the future at SS.
I also don’t see how Guzman+Kennedy is a better defensive combo than Desmond+Guzman.
The general consensus is that Desmond is not ready. He’s only had 205 PA’s in Triple-A and 2009 was his first really impressive season. I agree that he needs some more time, I’m just surprised. There had been a lot of talk of wanting to move Guzman to 2B and Desmond gave them a way to do that.
“Small market” is an incredible misnomer for the Twins. They’re mid-market. Always have been, always will be.
Yes, they’re a bit of a Cinderella in that they’ve got the most AL Central pennants in the past decade against higher-spending Chicago and Detroit, but no reason to skew the facts to enhance the “David vs. Goliath” storyline…
$96 million? Wow, that’s probably more than the Dodgers, which is pathetic.
Victor Martinez will get more than $40m over 4 years.
Not unless there’s a drastic change in the market.
Martinez will be 32 before the start of the 2011 season. I doubt many teams will be willing to commit four years to the guy. Much less if they have to guarantee $10M for his 35-year-old season.
i could see viewing vmart as a 40 games a year catcher and 110 games a year at 1B/DH. It’s tough for a starting catcher to catch more than 120 games a year, they need days off (especially day games after night games). he provides more value than a straight up 1B/DH type in that situation.
Any comparisons to players signed BEFORE the market crashed are completely worthless. Varitek and Rodriguez were signed under totally different conditions.
I’m not sure V-Mart is worth $10m if he can’t catch 80 games (and do a decent job at it). An OPS in the 850 range for a 1st baseman/DH is nothing special. You have guys coming off similar years this year who are signing for $5m and less.
Martinez’s value has always been that he was a catcher. Take that away and he is just another bat vying for playing time at 1B/DH.
I hope V Mart ends up in Tampa Bay. I wish they would have made a stronger push for him at the trade deadline. Pena is a FA and they could play him at catcher and first.
Hank is talking again, oh no….
Hudson had 42 steals in seven seasons before going to LA. What kind of speed were they expecting?
42 steals…? I’ll take that kind of “slow” any day!
…in 7 seasons. His high was 10 in ’07.
O-kaaaaaay. Miraculously I’m “cured”
I always found it interesting that everyone assumed Hudson was fast. I remember reading one scouting report on him saying “he looks faster than he actually is.” Why do teams assume he is fast? Is it just because he’s a shorter black man? I really hate to say it, but if there are people in the organization that were really calling him slow-dog then I think they were jumping to conclusions about a player simply based on his race. Hudson is a solid player, but speed is not one of his main skills. The dodgers should have known that going in.
There could be something to what you say, as there are still plenty of people who tend to draw conclusions about others based on appearance and stereotypes – even in these “enlightened” times. However, sometimes the discrepancy derives from the illusion a player gives off because of something unique to him. It could be his stature, his mechanics, or the enthusiasm with which he plays the game – and for whatever reason it fools people. I think of folks who are short but somehow look a lot taller than they actually are. It’s something about the way they carry themselves. It could be that Hudson has something like that going for him too.
Whatever the case, there can be no excuse for a team not to do a thorough job of investigating who they are signing. So to be that fooled about who the player is that they are getting reflects very poorly on the organization.
Did this discussion really just go from “Hudson lacks speed” to “The Dodgers clubhouse is racist”?
That’s actually not what I said. I just have heard a lot of people making the assumption that Hudson is a fast guy. It’s also a little weird to kind of rag on the guy when he is gone. I wouldn’t say the dodgers organization as a whole is at all racist. I’m just saying a statement like this is kind of weird. It would be like having a black basketball player and saying you’re surprised he can’t jump really high even though he is known for shooting the ball and racking up assists. Hudson is a pretty good bat at 2b, decent glove and seems like a pretty solid person. None of his past performance would show that he was a fast runner, so why would they think he was?
Slow or not, Hudson would be an upgade over the second base tandem with the Cubs. Too bad the Cubs are maxed out on budget.
I never had a problem with Hudson’s defense.. His range is dwindling though. He completely fell off the cliff with the bat and Belly was red-hot.
He won the GG from past success and some pretty nifty plays going back on the ball. Utley deserved it.
Slow-Dog is a weird nick name, he was never fast to begin with.
Are you kidding? Martinez will get more than 40 million for 4 years. This has been a busy week for the Twins
If he does, it’ll be because Boston is bidding against themselves. I can’t imagine primo demand for a 32-yr old part-time catcher.
Wasn’t V-Mart a full-time catcher with the Indians?? I could see V-Mart easily pulling in 10mil a year for either 3 or 4 years.
The age 26-30 version of Vic was. But he’s entering the stage where (typical) catchers tend to go through a reduction in innings behind the plate…
I’m encouraged that Smith feels he’s nearing the upper extremes of payroll and not shooting past them for a good opportunity. That means there may be room for a shrewd, cheap spring training move or two, especially to improve the backup CF situation.
Cameron seems to think highly of the Twins rotation. I’m more optimistic for it than the Sox fans seem to be, but even I wouldn’t go so far as to say it could be “among the best in baseball”. They could certainly have good numbers (in the same way Washburn had good numbers with Seattle’s D behind him), but there’s a few too many “if” situations for my liking. Slowey and Baker have legitimate front-end potential, but I don’t see *both* breaking out this year as 15+ game winners, and it seems unlikely that *both* Liriano and Pavano will come out with front-end stuff; it’s quite possible both pitch their way out of the rotation by June if Swarzak and Duensing are sharp.
What the hell is going on here? Sorry fellas. My posts are ending up in the wrong spot.
I’m not too worried about Pavano’s performance on the field. He’s always been solid when healthy, so he’s not going to work his way out of the rotation, though he may injure himself out of the rotation.
I don’t know that Baker can win 15 games. He takes 100 pitches to get thru 5 innings. That doesn’t bode well for collecting decisions.
“amongst the best in baseball” is a huge stretch. It’s not even amongst the best in the division. The White Sox certainly have a better rotation. We’re probably more on par with Detroit. The Twins are in the argument for best bullpen in baseball, but the rotation is merely league average.
They need that staff to be solid though as that defense is borderline atrocious. I say this based off the fact that the Twins have a fly ball staff. If they had more GBers, then that OF wouldn’t hurt so much.
You really don’t like the defense?
Punto-Hardy-Hudson-Morneau around the infield is certainly above-average.
Cuddyer and Delmon lack range, but Span is the real deal. And Cuddyer has a ++ arm (which holds runners, even if he doesn’t lead the AL in outfield assists again).
It’s no Seattle defense, but what’s not to like aside from some below-average range in the corner OF?
I saw in a previous post someone did about the team’s UZR/150’s. The outfield is roughly a collective -43. That my friend is atrocious on a staff that gets a lot of flyballs and probably litterally ranks them amongst the worst in baseball. I expect that number will rise now that they are outside of the dome, but it will still be pretty terrible.
I do agree on the infield though. Porno, Punto and Hardy are all studs while Hudson and Harris won’t hurt you. Too bad our pitching staff isn’t built to play to our strength.
Span +16, Cuddyer -22, Young -25. That’s a net -31.
Kubel’s a -28 in RF, but really only saw time there when Morny was hurt and Cuddy moved to 1B. He’s a respectable -2.3 in LF, where he’ll be seeing time for Young this year.
So if Kubel is stealing, say, 60 games from Young in LF (Kubel’s total time in the OF last year), that -31 OF pulls up to an average in low -20’s.
An OF that projects at a -20’s is subpar, no question. But it’s a far cry from “atrocious” and -43.
And as for pitcher’s, only Slowey and Baker are flyball pitchers (about 48% each), while Pavano, Blackburn, Liriano, and darkhorse for a rotation spot Duensing are all <40%.
“He’s a respectable -2.3 in LF, where he’ll be seeing time for Young this year.”
You cant use the UZR/150 when he only had 200 innings in LF, it doesnt work that way because its a extremely SSS.
He has a career -18.1 UZR/150 in LF in 1260 innings, and -17.8 for just UZR, which is still small sample size; but it pretty clear that Kubel is not an average or respectable defensive LF, or RF.
I’m not sure where you got those numbers. Here are career UZR/150 on Fangraphs:
Span CF -13.8
Kubel LF -18.1 RF -20
Young LF -18.9
Cuddy RF -10.1 (he has trended down for three straight seasons with a -21.1 last year)
Span improved last season, posting a -7.4 in CF, and getting outside with regular playing time there I expect him to climb up to league average.
Kubel maybe turned a corner last year in his 25 games in left as he did post a -2.3, but I’ll take the bulk of his 163 games there as the true indicator.
Delmon I think we can agree is a lost cause as he trended worse last year. My guess is the career mean for him as well.
Cuddy will almost certainly be worse than his career mean, so I’m not expecting more there.
The problem here is that Span is an average defender at best while he has horrendous defenders flanking him. I just don’t find this a good situation to have in the outfield. At lease Cuddy more than makes up for it all at the plate so I can accept it in RF. Young just sucks and him being an aweful defender compacts the issue. Maybe a light comes on this year. We can all hope.
Good call on the pitchers though. I have to admit I followed the chatter on here in that regard. Thanks for posting the numbers. That definitely eases the concern a large amount. I guess I should only worry when Baker and Slowey are on the bump.
I guess this means were tied at one after this round. Good match. I look forward to more great discussion thruout(is that a correct spelling?) the season.
Hmmm… Looks like I just pulled the 2009 ratings off fangraphs as opposed to career totals. As noted, leads to problems with SSS, but at the same time doesn’t use 6 year old data to project next years performance.
Is there an industry-accepted standard? Perhaps a 3 year sample size is more fair?
This sounds cliche, but I’m one of those guys who never misses a game. And I just don’t get how cuddy rates better than span. Mike’s range just isn’t there at all, while span seems to be a half step shy of carlos gomez. Are my eyes deceiving me when I watch them play or is there some weaknesses in uzr?
3 FULL seasons is the accepted standard. But Kubel doesnt have 3 full seasons of data, it’s all 1/2 year or 1/3 year spans, that’s why I included the 6 years, because it gave a larger sample size- plus its doubtful that he’ll IMPROVE defense as he gets older too.
“Are my eyes deceiving me” Probably, we all do it as fans, we see what we want to see. Maybe Span is just a half step slower than Gomez, but maybe Span gets bad jumps on balls- plus Span’s numbers in CF is way too small to judge anwayys (and you cant compare UZR from LF to CF).
And UZR is by no means perfect, it’s a tool to use like anything else.
Good info to know.
Kubel might be a difficult case, because he finally has healthy knees for the first time in his career. Likewise, span is still young and learning. Reasonable to think both should improve.
But thanks for the insights!
Ok, didnt know about Kubel’s knees so that’s a good point.
riveraveblues.com/2010/01/the-stats-we-use-uzr-223… That’s a good link if u want anymore info on it
Great link. That’s some hefty reading, but I’m looking forward to tackling it.
Well, seeing as Cuddy’s numbers have tumbled for three straight seasons, one of two things is happening here. Either he has gotten lazy or lost a couple of steps. I guess I would say probably a bit of both. He may not be making that extra effort to snag a fliner before it hits the earth and decides to play it for a single instead. It also stands to reason that the guy has bulked up since moving to the OF and has lost a step at 30 that he possessed at a slimmer 27.
Together, these two factors can easily constitute his faltering numbers.
I’m getting dizzy trying to keep up with the Guzmans the last few days:
– Cristian Guzman likely staying at short for Washington (Fri)
– 1Bman Jesus Guzman cleared waivers and will receive an invitation to Giants Spring Training (Fri)
– The Orioles signed 3Bman Joel Guzman to a minor league deal (Thu)
– The Phillies signed outfielder Freddy Guzman (Tue)
If you go back to Jan 19 you’d also find the Cubs signing pitcher Angel Guzman.
Well, if Scutaro falls back to his career averages, Boston will be in the market for a SS. Jeter would look real good in red.
Keep dreaming. No one’s outbidding the Yanks on that one and he most certainly doesn’t have any interest in going anywhere else. This one’s going to be a pretty by the numbers signing.
I don’t know. Jeter’s getting married and big life in the apple doesn’t really hold that same appeal to a married man. I imagine he’d want to settle in a nice Massachusetts suburb and bring home a couple more rings for bean town.
Alright, I’m sorry for wasting everyone’s time. I just can’t help myself when someone gets so defensive about such a ludacris statement like the one I originally made.
hahaha. 😀 Honestly though, if somehow that happened, I would really not be happy at all, as a Sox fan. He’s getting old! 😛 And besides it’s Jeter; Yankees fans always hated Manny, Ortiz, Beckett, Schilling, etc. Red Sox fans always hate Posada, A-Rod, Pettitte, and most of all: Jeter.
We actually liked Schilling before the trade when he said the only 2 teams he wantd to go to was either the Yankees or Phillies. But then he gets trade to Boston and suddenly becomes a life-long Mr. Boston, thats why we dont like him
I would like to point out that yes, Jeter in a Red Sox uniform is as crazy as it sounds.
forgive me for my ignorance…but is the ballpark in Minny gonna be artificial turf or natural grass?
Grass.
i think that the m’s have a fantastic chance to get that one big bat at the trade deadline guys. what you have to realize is they are stockpiling multiple CHEAP first basemen (kotchman/garko), a CHEAP byrnes in left, and other great prospects in the minors (triunifel, moore, etc.) that they could make a very impressive package for a team that is trying to shed salary (e.g. THE PADRES). Adrian Gonzalez has a terrific chance to end up in seattle. The red sox prospective trade bait has much higher salaries than those guys do. Watch jackie z’s magic unfold this year. If they got adrian they will make a deeeep playoff run this year.
If you are trying to make the point that Garko/Brynes/Kotchman would have any value in a deal for AGonz then you need to stop and just think rationally about that statement.
And how are the Padres trying to shed salary? Their payroll is like 30m, you cant get much lower than that.
“The red sox prospective trade bait has much higher salaries than those guys do”
What?? Ellsbury/Buchholz/Kelly + whatever other prospects are not arb-eliginle yet. Ellsbury will be next year but he’s the only one.
Twins are mid-market, not small market.
Minneapolis/St. Paul market is about the same size as the Seattle market. Seattle upped its payroll to around $100 mil with a new stadium a while back so not surprising the Twins would do so.