Chris Resop’s Future
Chris Resop is doing a pretty good Stephen Strasburg imitation these days. Resop may not be a top prospect, but the 27-year-old right-hander is pitching so well that he may not be in the minors much longer than Strasburg. And unlike the Nationals' prospect, Resop has some control over when he arrives in the majors.
Resop, a starter in the Braves' system with big league experience on the Marlins, Angels and Braves, has a clause in his contract that forces the Braves to expose him to the 29 other clubs if he's not on Atlanta's 25-man roster by June 15th. The clause, which Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports explains in detail here, means the Braves are likely to call Resop up or deal him within a few weeks.
Like Colby Lewis, who is in the midst of a strong season for the Rangers, Resop recently pitched in Japan. Unlike Lewis, Resop didn't dominate there. Before he left, Resop threw a 94 mph fastball as a reliever. Now, he's starting in Triple A and his first nine starts have been dominant. Resop has a 2.03 ERA with 10.4 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9. He has not been pitching deep into games, but he has allowed just 34 hits in 48.2 innings.
The Braves were confident enough in their starting pitching depth to deal Javier Vazquez last winter, but with Jair Jurrjens recovering from a hamstring injury, their rotation now looks thinner. Tim Hudson, Derek Lowe, Kenshin Kawakami and Tommy Hanson have four rotation spots covered. Kris Medlen has started well in Jurrjens' absence, but the Braves may decide to promote Resop to maintain pitching depth.
If the Braves are confident moving on without Resop, they could trade him. The Nationals, Mets and Dodgers are among the teams that could look to acquire starters this summer. Resop would be more than just a rental, though – he isn't scheduled to hit free agency until after 2014.
Ben Sheets’ Trade Value
At first glance, Ben Sheets doesn't appear like much of a trade target. He has an ERA over 5.00, he's walking a batter every two innings and his team is just two games out of a playoff spot. Not only that, he's making a base salary of $10MM this year. But if the A's fall from contention and Sheets builds on his current hot streak, he could attract interest on the trade market.
Sheets started the season poorly and even gave up eight-plus earned runs in back-to-back starts, but he may have been tipping his pitches early on. Only the hitters who faced him know if he was tipping his pitches, but this much is clear: Sheets has pitched much better recently. Since May 8th, he has a 2.52 ERA, has allowed fewer hits than innings pitched and has 29 strikeouts with 12 walks.
Still, Sheets, who has generally had low walk rates, is now walking more hitters than ever. It's less worrisome when you consider that his walk rates have traditionally improved over the course of the season. Sheets missed all of 2009 with elbow surgery, so he may still be finding his way around the strike zone. That's what Sheets thinks, anyway. He recently told Ron Kroichick of the San Francisco Chronicle that he's "starting to settle in."
Most MLB starters will look good if you highlight their best four-start stretch of the season, but Sheets' recent success is just part of the reason his trade value is picking up. His average fastball is 91 mph this year, just a bit lower than his career norms. That suggests he's healthy after last year's operation. The A's aren't taking any chances, however; they have only allowed Sheets to reach the 100 pitch plateau twice in his ten starts.
Teams could have interest if the A's fall from contention, but they would probably want to see improved control and continued health from Sheets. He cannot be offered arbitration after the season, so no acquiring team will have the chance to obtain draft picks. Even if Sheets stays healthy, the A’s would likely have to eat salary in any trade, since there are many cheaper, more predictable options available.
The Phillies’ Search For Pitching
The Phillies are looking at pitchers around the league, though they don’t need arms as badly as they did last year, writes MLB.com's Todd Zolecki. Roy Oswalt is not a likely fit, despite his availability, since the Phillies would prefer to hold onto their prospects.
"We're going to be reluctant to move talent, because we've moved a lot of talent out of our system," GM Ruben Amaro Jr. said. "But we'll see how things shape up over the next several months."
Since Oswalt makes $16MM next season and the Phillies have already guaranteed their players $135MM in 2011, acquiring Oswalt would likely mean letting Jayson Werth leave as a free agent after the season unless the Astros took on salary. The Astros would demand better prospects if they had to take on salary, so the Phillies are keeping tabs on cheaper options. As ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark reported last week, the Phillies are in touch with Pedro Martinez.
"We haven't seen him throw, but we check in with him," Amaro told Zolecki.
Martinez, who pitched well for the Phillies down the stretch last year after they signed him mid-season, would not cost prospects, so the Phillies are intrigued. They are eyeing a pair of White Sox relievers, too.
Rosenthal On Oswalt, Kearns, Dunn
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports leads his latest column with an imagined conversation between Astros owner Drayton McLane and GM Ed Wade, in which Wade attempts to educate McLane on the realities of Roy Oswalt's trade value. Rosenthal's hot stove notes…
- Like most people, Rosenthal can't see the Reds splurging on Oswalt. He finds the Mets "an even less serious contender" due to limited finances.
- Rosenthal points out that Carlos Zambrano hasn't shown himself to be worthy of replacing anyone in the current Cubs' rotation. At the moment, the Cubs appear to have a surplus.
- Rosenthal notes that the Majors' current home run kings – Jose Bautista, Paul Konerko, and Ty Wigginton – could be available at the trade deadline. Who would've predicted these three would top the leaderboard on May 24th? With Kelly Johnson tied for fourth? The Jays acquired Bautista in August of '08 without much fanfare, sending catcher Robinzon Diaz to Pittsburgh. The Pirates designated Diaz for assignment last November.
- Austin Kearns would be a nice match for the Giants, suggests Rosenthal. The 30-year-old outfielder is hitting .304/.377/.487 in 130 plate appearances for the Indians this year. Nate Schierholtz hasn't been much worse, though he's dealing with a bruised shoulder at the moment.
- Rosenthal feels that the Nationals will strike a deal to keep Adam Dunn in Washington before he reaches free agency.
Kaz Matsui Clears Waivers
MONDAY, 2:09pm: Matsui has cleared waivers and is now a free agent, tweets Alyson Footer. The Astros will be on the hook for his $5MM salary, minus the pro-rated league minimum.
WEDNESDAY, 11:02pm: The Astros have asked waivers on Kaz Matsui and intend to release the infielder, GM Ed Wade said in a team press release. If no team claims Matsui by Monday, he will become a free agent, though the Astros will be responsible for his $5MM salary. The Astros called Oswaldo Navarro up from Triple A in a corresponding move.
The Astros signed Matsui to a three-year $16.5MM deal in 2007 and were rewarded a promising initial season. Matsui hit .293/.354/.427 with 20 steals in 25 attempts in 2008, though he played in just 96 games. The 34-year-old hasn't been as productive since and his batting line has fallen off to .141/.197/.155 this year. The Astros, whose offense ranks last in the NL, had to move on.
Matsui's batting line won't have suitors lining up and his fielding has been below average since joining the Astros (according to UZR). Last fall, Richard Justice of the Houston Chronicle reported that the Astros could consider the possibility of Matsui returning to Japan. Zachary Levine of the Houston Chronicle reports today that Matsui did not say whether he would consider a return to his native country.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Kevin Millwood
I wasn't a huge fan of the Orioles' acquisition of Kevin Millwood, as I felt $9MM was still pretty hefty for a starter of his caliber and he wasn't likely to return a useful prospect at the trade deadline. One team executive agreed, citing the Rangers' moving most of Millwood's salary as one of the best deals of the offseason.
With about 28% of the season in the books, Millwood is vindicating Andy MacPhail's acquisition. The 35-year-old righty leads the American League in innings, averaging 6.8 per start. He's allowed a fair share of hits and home runs, but has managed a 3.71 ERA due to the best strikeout-to-walk ratio of his career.
Will the Orioles trade Millwood? It'd be a logical move, but the Orioles' rotation is already ranked 12th in the American League in ERA. Without Millwood the team's rotation ERA would be over 5.00 and the bullpen would be even more taxed. An arbitration offer after the season could net the Orioles a draft pick, as Millwood is currently a Type B free agent. Of course, the O's would need to offer arbitration and have the Scott Boras-represented pitcher decline.
Millwood has Boras, but he still may have to accept a one-year deal in the $5-7MM range in free agency. That'd fit with the deals signed by Doug Davis, Jon Garland, Brett Myers, Vicente Padilla, Carl Pavano, and Brad Penny last winter. At least Millwood doesn't have to worry about a conflict of interest, as Boras doesn't have much else in the way of starting pitching next winter.
Starting Pitching Buyers
Roughly a half-dozen teams may be shopping credible starting pitching at this year's trade deadline. Let's play matchmaker and examine potential buyers.
- Nationals. As I wrote on May 6th, the Nationals should acquire starting pitching as soon as possible. Reinforcements are on the way, but with Scott Olsen hitting the DL there is too much uncertainty.
- Blue Jays. Jesse Litsch will be back in June, but one veteran addition would help.
- Tigers. Max Scherzer could be a shot in the arm if he straightens things out in Triple A. Otherwise, they have Rick Porcello, Jeremy Bonderman, Dontrelle Willis, and Armando Galarraga backing up Justin Verlander.
- Diamondbacks. Brandon Webb might be all this team needs, but he's working on a new arm slot as he rehabs from shoulder surgery. It may take another month.
- Red Sox. Josh Beckett is on the DL with a back strain, so Tim Wakefield stepped in. Boston's interest in starting pitching might be limited to the possibility of renting Cliff Lee.
- Reds. Homer Bailey's shoulder tightness is a concern, but the Reds' biggest gains will probably come from continued improvements by Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang.
- Angels. They've got their starting five, so they might just have to hope for better things from Joel Pineiro and Scott Kazmir.
- Dodgers. John Ely has been excellent and Vicente Padilla has been working his way back, so the Dodgers' interest in starting pitching might be limited to aces.
- Mets. Mike Pelfrey has emerged behind Johan Santana. Jon Niese has a spot when he returns from a hamstring strain and Hisanori Takahashi looked good against the Yankees. The Mets should still look to add at least one starter, but most people felt that way during the offseason.
Starting Pitching Sellers
Starting pitching is always the biggest need at the trade deadline. Over two months remain until July 31st, but we may have enough data to determine who's selling.
- Orioles. They'll presumably have Kevin Millwood up for auction. The 35-year-old righty is winless in ten starts despite the best strikeout-to-walk ratio of his career and a league-leading 68 innings. The Orioles are paying him $9MM this year and would have to get around his limited no-trade clause. The O's can also offer 31-year-old righty Jeremy Guthrie, who's trimmed walks this year and sports a 3.86 ERA. Guthrie is more than a rental; he's under team control through 2012.
- Indians. A Jake Westbrook trade seems inevitable. He's finally back from Tommy John surgery and has retained his ability to generate grounders. His $11MM salary will limit the Indians' return.
- Royals. They could part with Gil Meche, but he's been walking everyone this year after dealing with shoulder pain in April. He earns $12MM this year and the same in '11, so interest will be minimal. Brian Bannister might be a better trade candidate. The 29-year-old righty is under team control through '12, just like Guthrie.
- White Sox. If the Sox quit on the season, they could consider dealing Mark Buehrle, Freddy Garcia, or even John Danks. Buehrle is well-paid and will get 10-and-5 rights on July 6th. If dealt, his contract is expanded to cover 2012 at $15MM. Garcia hasn't shown much promise this year. Danks has been dominant and is under team control through '12, but the Sox would presumably need a ton to cash him in now.
- Mariners. They'd have the best rental trade chip of any team: Cliff Lee, being paid just $9MM this year. The Ms would also want to dump Ian Snell, who is likely to be non-tendered after having his '11 option declined.
- Astros. They could market three veteran starters, led of course by Roy Oswalt. We've discussed Oswalt quite a bit at MLBTR, but the Astros may also trade Brett Myers and Wandy Rodriguez. Myers is having a resurgent season and has only a mutual option for '11. Rodriguez has slipped from his breakout '09 and is under team control through '11.
- Brewers. They can offer up veterans Dave Bush, Doug Davis, and Jeff Suppan, if anyone will have them. The goal here would be just to free up a few million bucks.
- The Pirates, Cubs, and Diamondbacks could become sellers, with Brandon Webb the most interesting potential name. The Athletics, Angels, Braves, and Padres could offer a few arms if things head south.
The starting pitching trade market may feature a pair of aces in Oswalt and Lee, with the cost-conscious buyers gravitating toward Lee. Millwood, Westbrook, and Myers are three likely veteran rentals. The undefined segment of the market is those under team control beyond 2010 – we don't know whether Guthrie, Bannister, Danks, and Rodriguez can be had.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Jeremy Bonderman
In December of 2006, Jeremy Bonderman was 24 years old, coming off the finest season of his career. He debuted at age 20 in '03, but put it all together in '06 by making 34 regular season starts and striking out 202. He added three postseason starts to his resume that year. Bonderman's extension bought out his final two arbitration years for $13MM, and a pair of free agent seasons at $12.5MM apiece.
Unfortunately, injuries set in for Bonderman after he signed the contract. He dealt with a blister and elbow pain in '07, and learned of thoracic outlet syndrome in '08. Shoulder soreness lingered into the '09 season, limiting him to 51.3 pro innings.
Bonderman came to Spring Training pain-free in 2010, and reclaimed a rotation spot when the Tigers traded Nate Robertson. With a 4.43 ERA, 8.2 K/9, and 3.1 BB/9 in 40.6 innings, it appears on the surface that Bonderman has regained his '06 form. There are notable differences though. Bonderman is throwing 89.4 mph on average this year, as compared to 93.3 in '06. He's throwing more fastballs and fewer sliders, and he's no longer a groundball pitcher. Manager Jim Leyland explained to MLB.com's Stephen Ellsesser: "He's not the overpowering guy he was. He's adjusting to the pitching style, throwing a split now." It should also be noted that Bonderman's stat line would look a lot worse had a rainout not wiped out a lousy start a few weeks ago.
The 2010 version of Bonderman is still getting it done, but potential free agent bidders will have the luxury of adding his next 20+ starts to the sample. Bonderman's age, 28, will be a number other free agents can't beat. He may be looking at a contract similar to Rich Harden's one-year, $7.5MM deal assuming teams remain intrigued by his upside but wary of his health.
Eric Chavez Hopes To Avoid Retirement
MONDAY, 8:05am: Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets that Chavez emphasized he is not retiring. He'll attempt to rehab his neck injury. Chavez has a pair of bulging discs; Slusser has more in her May 22nd blog post.
SATURDAY, 2:09pm: The recent neck injury suffered by Eric Chavez may force him to retire, the A's slugger told Joe Stiglich of the Bay Area News Group (link goes to Twitter).
However, in a follow-up tweet, Stiglich cautions that he has yet to hear from the team trainer and therefore it's hard to say if the injury is even season-ending. Furthermore, Chavez says that he wants to return. The longtime third baseman is hitting .234/.276/.333 in 123 plate apperances this season.
The 32-year-old is in the final year of a six-year, $66MM extension he agreed to in March of 2004. Chavez will earn an additional $3MM when he is bought out of the 2011 season. According to Baseball Reference, the California native has earned more than $75MM in his big league career.