Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com has a new Full Count video up, so let's dive in…
- The fact that Carlos Zambrano is a 29-year-old pitcher still capable of winning 12-15 games a year should be enough to allow the Cubs to trade him, but of course the team will have to a eat a large chunk of the $45MM left on his deal. Rosenthal reminds us that the Cubbies came ahead financially when they moved Milton Bradley this winter.
- The Angels still want to add a first baseman, and Adam Dunn is on their list of potential targets. If they do make a move for Dunn or perhaps Adam LaRoche, incumbent first baseman Mike Napoli could become trade bait.
- The Nationals have yet to get serious in any discussions about a contract extension with Dunn.
- The Brewers are still searching for pitching, and the Blue Jays could be a potential match. Toronto likes Double-A infielder (and Canadian) Brett Lawrie, but the Brewers would be reluctant to trade him. They would have to consider it if he could land them someone like Brett Cecil or Shaun Marcum, though.
- Arizona will probably not want to keep both Dan Haren and Edwin Jackson since they combine to make over $20MM next year, but Haren's value isn't what it once was. One baseball person told Rosenthal that "[Haren]'s not at the top of anyone's list, he's just another name."
“[Haren]’s not at the top of anyone’s list, he’s just another name.”
I really wonder how true that is. I’m sure teams look at sabermetrics, which say Haren is having a strong year with an unfortunate amount of bad luck. Hes also locked up at a great price for a pitcher of his caliber. The D-Backs are probably better off just hanging onto him, at least until his name picks up more value.
“unfortunate amount of bad luck,” giving up the most hrs and 2nd in hits given up is not bad luck thats just bad pitching, like the article said, Haren is not what he once was. Do i feel “hes just another name,” no way, he definitely stands out of the crowd without a doubt. If Haren could start to avoid the long ball, he will become far more valuable because everything will fall back to the old Haren but he still hasnt been able to so.
Giving up the most hits and homers despite not pitching any differently is pretty much the definition of “bad luck”.
Clearly he is not pitching the same if your going to below 2.80 ERA in one season then leading the league in giving up the most hrs and hits in the next.
Hi, Joe Morgan, it’s nice to meet you.
I wouldnt have to be like Joe Morgan and make obvious statements like my last one if people could understand that Haren has just not been that good and its not the fact he is having “bad luck”.
His strikeout rate is the highest of his career. His walk rate is better than his career average. His linedrive rate is a CAREER LOW. This is the definiton of bad lack.
Not really. There’s also the possibility that the hitters he faces are getting better and can hit Haren better than before.
His linedrive rate is a career low.
Haren has the second best K:BB of his career this year. The number sits over 5, which is most certainly elite for a SP. You may not be a believer in the predictive power of xFIP, but you have to acknowledge that his current ERA seems unusually high for a K:BB.
Avoid the longball? That will be hard for Haren. He already makes a bulk of starts against the light hitting NL West. Things would be tougher in any other division.
No way the DBacks get back what they gave for Dan Haren. The A’s got 6 prospects including Carlos Gonzalez and Brett Anderson. OUCH!
His BABIP is sky high and his HR-rate is likely unsustainable too. Yeah, its bad luck.
Haren gives up the most bombs in the MLB and is notoriously bad in the second half.
I bet the Cardinals would be real interested in Haren for the right price.
The same could be said for the entire league.
Someone explain why the Brewers are buyers, being 8 games under .500 would make them sellers wouldn’t it.
Agreed but look a little deeper, with the lineup they have and do not trade away some of their big pieces and they start to produce(mainly Fielder) then if they grab another arm or 2 they have chance to maybe make a run in the second half. Do i think it will happen…no bur giving it some thought i wouldnt throw them out of it just yet.
I get the feeling that if the Brewers were to trade for Cecil or Marcum, as the post suggests, they would be getting pitchers for multiple years and not a rental. That’s the only reason I’d think Milwaukee would trade a prospect.
Will the Dunn rumors stop? The Nats love him. He’s much more likely to be re-signed than dealt.
Rosenthal stated the Nats had not had any contract extensions talks…During highlights of the last Strasburg start… ESPN stated that the NATS were in the beginning stages of offering Donkey a contract extension.
Why would the Blue Jays give up pitching for a 2B, when they have Aaron Hill?
My guess is they believe he has the skills for 3b, and a bat to more-than-match.
Brad Emaus is currently raking as the 3B of choice in AAA Las Vegas. Lawrie would be redundant.
It’s Vegas, the PCL, 88 ABs, by a 24 year old who hasn’t blown anyone away with his skills. This vs a 20 year old, in AA who has plus bat speed and a plus arm. If Lawrie progresses as expected, Emaus doesn’t even rate as a speed bump… and I like Emaus.
But is Lawrie worth giving up a guy like Marcum or Cecil? For someone who has zero pro experience at third and would otherwise be roadblocked by a good player with a very team-friendly contract, I’m would rather take the commodity within the system if it meant I’d also keep a high upside pitcher like Cecil.
I should note that since these deals are rarely one-for-one, I don’t anticipate that would happen here. Even Blanton netted interesting secondary pieces in Spencer and Outman. For 2 1/2 years of Marcum (5 1/2 years of Cecil would be prohibitively expensive), I would presume the back end would be at least as interesting.
As for comparing Emaus’ value vs Lawrie, I see Emaus as a bit below average regular, probably a slightly souped up Hoffpauir. As for Lawrie, I’m not sure who I’d compare him to, but whoever it is is a star-level player. He’s only been playing second just over a year, so it’s not like he’s cemented there, and his plus arm profiles well at 3B. Players with his combination of glowing scouting reports, age, and performance are exactly the type of player to target if you trade a Marcum.
I understand that there is little possibility it would be one-for-one and that Lawrie still has time to move to a new position. However, there are still some question marks surrounding him in my opinion. Namely: can he improve enough defensively to stick at both 2B and 3B, and when will he be ready for the majors?
The way people talk of him, if it pans out as most people expect it will, Brett seems to project out to Jeff Kent. But even with that, a couple of articles I’ve read say they just want to put him in the outfield and let him worry about batting.
Also, some people are saying 2012, while some are projecting a little later. If I were a Jays exec, I’d be interested if I could be 100% sure he’d be absolutely ready for regular third base duty during the big influx of talent coming in at 2012. Even still, what comes with him would be important and I honestly don’t see much that both fills a need in the minor league system and is enticing enough for the Jays to pull off the deal.
From the Blair article in the Globe today, it looks like the front office aren’t believers in Emaus’ capacity to hold down the position.
If the scouts think there’s no shot at him playing at third, then I’d save Marcum and move along, too. If they think there’s a decent shot (and given what I’ve read about his tool-set, that’s a distinct possibility), then I’d do it. I don’t mind OF being a fallback plan, but the general goal of this for me is to find a star-level 3B. I don’t need certainty, because, well, that doesn’t exist, especially with prospects. I’d need upside with the appropriate measure of risk.
All I’m saying is that it’s a bit of a stretch to point to a prospect, regardless of skill level, character, or physique and say he can play a position he has no experience with well. I would want to see him actually show ability to prosper at third before talking about trading for him.
The fact that he’s made about 13 or so errors at second is a little concerning, although he was drafted as a catcher and is still learning second. (Growing pains!!!1) Also, the outfield picture in the near future is starting to crowd up as it is, so he’d be pretty hard pressed to be there as well.
I don’t want to imply it’s 100% certainty – he might have footwork problems, or quickness issues, or whatever, but he hasn’t shown anything that’s made Milwakee yank him off second, and they’re a lot of the same skills involved (with arm probably being the major difference). 13 errors in about half a season in the minors isn’t really a lot given the conditions of the infields, especially while learning a new position.
Here’s where the scouting info becomes important… does he have the skills to play 3b (or 2b)? If they say yes, or probably, then you do it, knowing that OF is still a fallback given his bat, which is probably still star-level even in an OF corner. I don’t see any OFs in the Jays system that look like a roadblock to that. (again, though, him going to the OF would only be a fallback, if he doesn’t develop in the infield, and not ideal).
I don’t want to imply it’s 100% certainty – he might have footwork problems, or quickness issues, or whatever, but he hasn’t shown anything that’s made Milwakee yank him off second, and they’re a lot of the same skills involved (with arm probably being the major difference). 13 errors in about half a season in the minors isn’t really a lot given the conditions of the infields, especially while learning a new position.
Here’s where the scouting info becomes important… does he have the skills to play 3b (or 2b)? If they say yes, or probably, then you do it, knowing that OF is still a fallback given his bat, which is probably still star-level even in an OF corner. I don’t see any OFs in the Jays system that look like a roadblock to that. (again, though, him going to the OF would only be a fallback, if he doesn’t develop in the infield, and not ideal).
All I’m saying is that it’s a bit of a stretch to point to a prospect, regardless of skill level, character, or physique and say he can play a position he has no experience with well. I would want to see him actually show ability to prosper at third before talking about trading for him.
The fact that he’s made about 13 or so errors at second is a little concerning, although he was drafted as a catcher and is still learning second. (Growing pains!!!1) Also, the outfield picture in the near future is starting to crowd up as it is, so he’d be pretty hard pressed to be there as well.
From the Blair article in the Globe today, it looks like the front office aren’t believers in Emaus’ capacity to hold down the position.
If the scouts think there’s no shot at him playing at third, then I’d save Marcum and move along, too. If they think there’s a decent shot (and given what I’ve read about his tool-set, that’s a distinct possibility), then I’d do it. I don’t mind OF being a fallback plan, but the general goal of this for me is to find a star-level 3B. I don’t need certainty, because, well, that doesn’t exist, especially with prospects. I’d need upside with the appropriate measure of risk.
I understand that there is little possibility it would be one-for-one and that Lawrie still has time to move to a new position. However, there are still some question marks surrounding him in my opinion. Namely: can he improve enough defensively to stick at both 2B and 3B, and when will he be ready for the majors?
The way people talk of him, if it pans out as most people expect it will, Brett seems to project out to Jeff Kent. But even with that, a couple of articles I’ve read say they just want to put him in the outfield and let him worry about batting.
Also, some people are saying 2012, while some are projecting a little later. If I were a Jays exec, I’d be interested if I could be 100% sure he’d be absolutely ready for regular third base duty during the big influx of talent coming in at 2012. Even still, what comes with him would be important and I honestly don’t see much that both fills a need in the minor league system and is enticing enough for the Jays to pull off the deal.
In fact, i have to assume they would be more interested in Gamel (though he isnt the answer at 3B for either team).
Why is Napoli to become trade bait if the Angels get a first-baseman? Correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t Napoli a catcher primarily? And Jeff Mathis is a good player, but Napoli is better than him in my opinion. So, if the Angels were to get a first baseman, why trade off Napoli, just slide him back to catcher, and see what you can get for Mathis if you really want to trade a catcher.
No I am a Dodger fan so I can look at it without being biased. Mathis is far and away better. He plays terrific defense and has finally started to show he can hit the last year and a half. Napoli’s only strength is the long ball. Soc was a former catcher so he knows the importance of a defensive minded catcher. And dont they have Conger who is right around the corner and pretty much the same player. And Bobby Wilson so it seems logical to trade Napoli and get rid of his years of arb and try to get something for him.
Thanks, I’m a closet Angels fan who lives on the East Coast, so I only really get to see highlights, and play-off games. So, the last I knew, Mathis was good, but not as good as Napoli offensively, so I see how this makes sense now. I didn’t know how well Mathis was coming around, or how the prospects were doing.
angels wont trade anybody for a 1st basemen
they are wating it out until they pretty much get rent one for free..
makes NO ense trading nap for a rent a player
Haha lol don trip i love followin prospects but i mean morales is a lock at first so if they make a trade id look for someone who can handle 3b regularly.
Why the hell would the Jays even consider trading Cecil or Marcum for Lawrie? Maybe for Rzep Litsch.Marcum, Cecil, Romero and Morrow are off limits right now from the pitching staff.
Brett Lawrie is going to be one of the best hitters in the majors for at least a decade. It would take an ace under team controall for a long time to pry him away. He is about the only untuchable in the Brewers system.
Bobby Wilson will be traded for Jorge Cantu. Cantu will be a FA after the season and the Angels will attempt to lock him up long term. The Marlins will have themselves a decent hitting (.280 hitter in AAA) defensive stud catcher. A guy like that makes pitching staffs better.
The Jays would be more then happy to get Lawrie for Marcum. No matter what you think the Jays are rebuilding and Marcum is a free agent after next year so something will have to be done with him.
Marcum’s not a free agent until after 2012.
Dream on bud. Marcum is the ace of the staff and a leader to the rest of the pitchers. He’s still got potential to be better than he is and he just came back from surgery and is doing great. Marcum will re-signed to a long-term contract. He sees where the Jays are going and they have good upcoming team, a good enough reason to re-sign.
Besides, Lawrie is not even good at defense and we have plenty of those guys, not to mention we already have Hill at 2nd.
Cecil won’t be traded either, a great young #2 starter with tons of potential and he is under control for a bunch of years.
I can’t see Toronto dealing either Marcum or Cecil.
I think Milwaukee would have to give more than Lawrie to get Marcum or Cecil. Cecil looks like a future #2 and Marcum’s under control thru 2012.
However, if the Jays could get a player like Matt Dominguez, Pedro Alvarez, Josh Vitters — well, thats a different story. No doubt they are looking for a franchise 3B and will pay to get one.
Okay, in regards to Dan Haren – let’s break down the obvious. I don’t agree that’s it bad luck, this is possible, but if we look at last season – it sticks out like a sore thumb what has happened. Last year Bo Mel got fired, and with him went Bryan Price. Almost immediately Haren’s ERA started climbing (within two months), and climbed and climbed and climbed since. Mel Stottlemyre Jr. is not good for any pitching staff, and the most obvious is Dan Haren.