The Dodgers have signed Ted Lilly to a three-year, $33MM contract that was finalized today when the 34-year-old pitcher passed a physical. Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times (via Twitter) reports that Lilly has a full no-trade clause for the first two seasons of the deal, and the left-hander will receive a $3.5MM signing bonus to be paid out over all three years. Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com broke the news of the agreement last Saturday, and MLB.com's Ken Gurnick was the first to confirm the dollar amount (both Twitter links).
Los Angeles acquired Lilly from the Cubs at the trade deadline this summer, and watched him post a 3.52 ERA with 9.0 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 in dozen starts (76.2 innings). He also threw his first complete game shutout since 2004 while in a Dodgers' uniform. Lilly just wrapped up the four year, $40MM contract he signed with Chicago before the 2007 season.
Lilly projected to be a Type-A free agent, so the Dodgers will be forfeiting a chance at two high draft picks with the move. Of course they would have had to offer arbitration and Lilly would have had to turn it down for that to happen, and neither of those things was a given.
Lilly was positioned to be one of the best free agent starting pitchers available, and Sports Illustrated's Jon Heyman (via Twitter) calls the signing a "bargain" for Los Angeles considering what Lilly could've earned on the open market. Apparently he preferred to sign quickly, and given how the market played out last offseason, it's hard to blame him.
MLBTR's Mark Polishuk also contributed to this post.
Interesting. Lilly will turn 35 before the season starts, therefore, a 2 year deal might have been a smarter investment. I would guess that this deal is similar to Tim Hudson’s 3YR/28M. Not bad, if the money is similar.
I was thinking the exact same thing! Thanks for writing it for me!
Wow, 3 years. I was thinking a deal similar to Jason Marquis would get the job done.
Why would you think that? That makes zero sense.
Reasonably thick mid-level starting pitching free agent market (Kuroda, Pavano, Lilly, Garland, De La Rosa, Westbrook, Padilla and Javy Vazquez as a rebound candidate).
And, Lilly’s 35 years of age in January and averages an FIP and xFIP around the mid-4 range
Unless the Dodgers offered him ARB, there was no way he was gonna get anything less than 3 years @ 9-10 Million.
Wow! Interesting!
Bill Ladson thought that Lilly might be the next Jason Marquis, so signing him to a three year deal may not have been the smartest thing. But I’m happy with any and every hot stove move and a fine way to start the hot stove league news!!!
Or Jason schmidt…
good call
Funny how Giants fans like to dust off the Jason Schmidt deal, while strangely never acknowledging that the Barry Zito free agent contract is one of the worst in MLB history and obligates the Giants to pay out $126M as opposed to the just over $45M the Dodgers gave to Schmidt. Enjoy your inevitable loss to the Phillies, and enjoy knowing your favorite club still owes Zito $57.5 million over the next three seasons.
Something similar to Hudson/Wolf sounds about right
Wolf is probably a better comparison because Hudson had just made 9 starts since his injury.
I’d say Lilly gets 3/30 with a mutual option for ’14.
What is even more interesting ?? How about the Dodgers announcing the deal during the playoffs? MLB usually frowns upon teams taking thunder away from the top teams competing for a WS spot…. by announcing trades, signings, etc… Dodgers are not nuch for protocol these days, eh?
They haven’t announced anything. The reporters are just doing what they do best.
someone’s a giants fan….
Naaawwwww… but I know from years gone by that MLB doesn’t take lightly to individual clubs trying to upstage the playoff/world series teams with news about their own clubs. I recall at least once where club owners were chastised publically by the Commissioner’s office for doing what LA just did with Lilly.
This isn’t A-Rod here. Unless you follow baseball closely or are a Dodgers/Cubs fan you could probably care less about this signing. Lilly is a fungible #3/#4 type starter. Still think they should have offered arb and taken their chances. If he turns them down they can still pursue him. If he accepts you pay more in year 1 but significantly reduce your long-term risk.
I have no particular love for any of the teams in this year’s playoffs, so I personally could care less about the Lilly signing. But , like I said, the playoffs/WS are MLB’s showcase time. They want every fan glued to the TV and thinking nothing about baseball except the teams competing right now. It is all about prestige and ratings…. Don’t be surprised if, after the season is over, you read about the Dodgers, etc.. getting chastized, by letter, from the MLB front office. It has happened before… in fact I vaguely recall a trade being nullified because it was announced too early, but don’t ask me about the details. I don’t remember.
I would definitely have offered arbitration in their shoes, the definition of a win/win scenario. Draft picks are probably worth more than having Lilly on your pitching staff, too.
Probably got him to accept less than what he would’ve made in arbitration (at least for this season), which would’ve been the motivation for making the deal.
Knowing Colletti and McCourt, they would’ve never offered arbitration. I think Colletti needed to make this signing because he is getting pretty well beaten up over his mid season moves. I just hope the contract is 3/27 at the worst. Anything more than that and the Dodgers will have overpaid to get the media off of Ned’s back.
If they get him, it’s because they overpaid. If they don’t, it’s because they’re broke. Either way, somebody’s going to say it’s a mistake.
Surprised so many of you didn’t think Lilly could get a 3 year deal. After Cliff Lee, Lilly may be the best FA pitcher on the market (arguments could be made for Pettitte, Pavano, Kuroda and De La Rosa). He’s only 1 year older than Wolf was when he signed his 3 year deal last off-season, and Wolf had a much more questionable injury history.
As long as it isn’t more than $30m, good deal for the Dodgers. They still need to either resign Kuroda or grab someone like Garland, De La Rosa, or Harang. Or maybe give Chris Young a look.
Lilly has been losing velocity each and every season, to the point where his average FB was 86.7 mph last season (according to fangraphs). 3 years from now his heater will probably be in Jamie Moyer territory. This contract looks like it’ll be an albatross by year 3.
Exactly. I don’t have much more confidence in Lilly than a spate of other starting pitchers on the market this winter.
I feel this all but ends any chance of a deal with Kuroda. I expect the Dodgers to resign Padilla to another one year deal and then the dumpster diving will begin. If I had any confidence in Ned Colletti, I would hope he takes a look at the Rays who might make guys like James Shields or Andy Sonnanstine available. Not number ones or twos, but not bad as number four or fives.
Three years is probably one year too many. But I like this signing for the Dodgers. Lilly is a real pro, a fierce competitor, and his skills fit their park. Overall, a good move by the Dodgers.
Funny, the Dodgers can sign Lilly to a 3 year (probably 25-30MM) deal, but can’t pay the contract of Oswalt or any other valuable players.
Can really make that statement until we know what Lilly is making
It’s definetly going to be 24+ anually.
So 3 years, $72 million? Seems a bit steep.
3/24 is just fine. Yes, the FB velocity is declining, but beyond Cliff Lee, there’s not a lot out there. Now we get to see if signing Ted Lilly prevents McCheap from finding two more SPs, a LF, 3B, C, and 2B.
He still has pinpoint location and struck out over a batter an inning in LA.
I doubt the money is too outrageous. I think Lilly just wanted the years. Probably too long a deal, but a signing we needed to make. Two more starters to go…..
I may be wrong but I’m thinking Lilly’s deal is 3yrs for $30Mil+. No pitcher of his caliber is signing for 2 yrs for less than $10 Mil a yr. Could be that the first 2 yrs are front loaded, so if the Dodgers want to move him after 2 yrs,the money is not an issue.
Lilly is a class act. He just wants to go out and pitch. If healthy, he’s going to be effective.
If its under 30m then it’s fine with me. Everyone on the story at dodgers.com is complaining about how we should have gone after Lee instead but honestly the possibility of acquiring a Cliff Lee or Carl Crawford was so low. Someone even commented on how the offense couldn’t hit behind Lily…and umm how exactly is that Lily’s fault? Anyways should be a decent pickup to fill a rotation spot. I’m not disappointed that we lost out on the chance of draft picks.
Finish his career where he started! Good start to off-season for the Blue. If they could just do the same with Kuroda!
That would be a sick rotation if they keep it intact. Injury prone like no other but still it could be awesome.
Sick might be a bit of an overstatement. Above average, yes. Sick? Not so much. Sick are the two rotations currently in the NLCS.
Clayton Kershaw who can become Lincecum, Bills who is just as good as Cain, Kuroda who is a solid 3 and could be a 2.. That’s sick.
If you have two guys that are aces, and two #3s as your 1-4, thats pretty sick…
Let’s not get carried away and call Billingsley an ace.
You are correct. However, Billingsley can definitely be considered a #2 and even a #1
While we are on the subject of the Dodgers, if they trade Matt Kemp, will Trayvon Robinson replace him? And what will it take to pry Dee Gordon away from them?
I guess? Its not gonna happen. The coaching staff that had problems with Kemp are all gone and his hitting coach in the minors will most likely be his hitting coach this year.
With Dee Gordon, do you really usually pry prospects from other teams? Its usually the other way around, a team trades a very good MLB player and gets very good prospects in return. Back to his value, the Dodgers view him as the SS of the future and his year in AA was almost exactly the same with the normalization of his BABIP. His SB% stayed the same, and this was in a league that was two levels higher, and the biggest jump in the minors. Also, something interesting about errors in the minors.. players are encouraged to try to make plays they probably cannot because the coaches want to see what they can do. The fact that most of his errors were throwing ones, Id guess many were from plays he has not learned how to make yet(he has been playing for just 4 years..)
Going out on a limb here, but Lilly strikes me as a guy that is smart with his money and doesn’t live the lavish lifestyle. I think he wants to end his career happy and the Dodgers are his first choice. I’m thinking the team threw a somewhat low number at him and it was close enough to get a deal done. My guess is 3 years and $21-$24 million. Seems low, but I have a feeling. Lilly made it clear that he loved being a Dodger.
Anything more than 8 or 9 Mil per yr is going to be a tough sell. Depending on which direction they want to go in they still need another starter. I dont think that they really need a top of the rotation guy with Kershaw, Billingsley, Lilly already there. But the do need a guy who can give them 200+ innings. Cause even with Kuroda Lilly is still iffy as a 30+ starts a year guy. Kershaw is still young, only 23 at the start of next year. So getting a guy like Garland on a 1 yr deal makes a lot of sense. Other than that getting a LF and looking into a 3B as well as upgrading the pen should be where they focus this offseason.
On the surface Jon Garland’s 2010 numbers appear impressive: 14 Wins, 200 IP, and 3.47ERA. However, his 4.41 FIP suggests he is the same pitcher, although, Garland is an innings eater. He almost guarantees 200 IP of relatively good baseball.
The Padres and Garland have a 6.75M mutual option for 2011, but mutual options don’t usually get picked up by both sides, and Garland will probably look for a 2-3Yr deal. Garland will likely find a team that will give him the same deal that Jason Marquis signed (2YR/15M).
He is a mid-rotation starter and would be worth a 2YR/15M deal. Since being with the White Sox, Garland appears to be a west coast guy: Angels, Diamondbacks, and Padres. I agree that he would work nicely in the middle of the Dodgers rotation. As an M’s fan, I wouldn’t mind seeing him in Mariner blue in 2011.
Being from North Idaho im kind of a Mariners fan just because they are the most “local”. And yes Garland would fit in nicely in Safeco since they need at least 2 starters this offseason. The M’s and LA seem to have some of the same needs. SP, Middle of the order bat, bullpen arm or 2. So these names could be used for either team. Garland as i have mentioned. Kevin Millwood, Jake Westbrook, and maybe even Javier Vasquez,
Power bat guys: Werth is really the only one that makes sense and i dont think either team is willing or capable of giving out the type of contract that he will be looking for. So that may have to come through a trade and LA definatly has the better package that it can put together (Kemp and Gordon to name 2 tradable pieces).
And this years bullpen crop is deep so contracts should be manageable with guys like Balfour, Benoit, Qualls, Crain, Farnsworth, Frasor, Gregg, Guerrier, Rauch, Putz and Wheeler from the right side and Affeldt, Fuentes, Downs, and Choate from the left side. After having some lean years for quality relievers and contracts going up (see. Grabow, John 2/7.5M and Lyon, Brandon 3/15M) this should be a year where you can get a quality arm or 2 out of the pen for a decent price.
FYI, Vazquez has made it known he quit a few times that he doesn’t want to play for West Coast teams.
Hence the Maybe part in front of his name. Cause yes he has said that he would prefer an east coast team but i find it hard to believe that he wouldnt listen to the right contract offers.
Hence the Maybe part in front of his name. Cause yes he has said that he would prefer an east coast team but i find it hard to believe that he wouldnt listen to the right contract offers.
Hence the Maybe part in front of his name. Cause yes he has said that he would prefer an east coast team but i find it hard to believe that he wouldnt listen to the right contract offers.
He went as far to put it in a no trade clause with Atlanta… I imagine he’d listen to offers from anybody, to use that as leverage in contract negotiations, but I doubt he signs with a west coast team…
Hence the Maybe part in front of his name. Cause yes he has said that he would prefer an east coast team but i find it hard to believe that he wouldnt listen to the right contract offers.
I initially thought this deal was a little too much given Lilly is getting older, but looking this winters crop of FA pitchers is GLOOMY. Dodgers know that trying to getting some other decent pitcher would have to come via a trade, and teams are most likely going to demand outrageous demands again for their pitchers.
This is a good deal for the Dodgers. Lilly is a solid pitcher, there were many teams that would have taken him as a free agent. Look at it this way if your Lilly, you make a lot of money on a possible contender, great weather in that division, and your playing for a manager you like. What more could you ask for.
I’m not a Dodgers fan, but good move. They really needed to show that they can operate amidst this McCourt mess. Kudos to them.
I find this signing interesting because it happened so quickly. Since Lily made 13M this year, I wonder if he told the Dodgers he intended to accept arbitration if offered. If that’s the case, the Dodgers may have figured it’d be better to sign him for 3 years at a lower annual rate than 1 year for a crapton of money. If they’re not going to get draft picks anyway, then at least they get an average-to-above-average pitcher for three years at market value instead of one year way above market value.
When he was with the Yankees, I didn’t want to see Lilly traded for Jeff Weaver. Weaver had a higher top end because of better stuff, but Lilly knew how to compete.
I wish him luck with the Dodgers. And as for the age thing, there is not likely to ever be another Jamie Moyer, but Lilly is likely to be effective for a while since he’s similar in not relying on a big fastball.
3 Years is a longs time for a guy going into his age 35 season. I’m curious to see what the dollars on the deal are. The deal should, barring something unexpected, be a solid get for the Dodgers next season (Lilly is perennially in the 2 to 4 win fWAR range every year). Could get ugly in year 3 though…
All that said I am happy for Theodore Roosevelt Lilly – I loved him when he pitched for my Yankees and I hope he makes the Dodgers about this contract.
The free agent market for starting pitching is looking pretty thin after Cliff Lee.
Lilly signed by the Dodgers, Arroyo’s option picked up by the Reds (but might be available via trade if they can’t extend him), Pavano will cost a first round compensation pick and may demand more years than you like to give a man of his age, we won’t know if Webb is healthy until mid January and he’ll have plenty of suitors if he is, and Pettite will be in New York or retired.
Kuroda is going to cost a bundle, but looks like he may be the best option in the bunch. DeLaRosa looks like the next Oliver Perez, but he will get a bundle because he won 16 games two years ago and he throws with the left hand. That leaves Vazquez, Garcia, Millwood, Harang, Harden, Sheets, Bedard, Correia, Suppan, Westbrook… not much there for a club in need of a No. 2 or 3 starting pitcher.
The trade market is looking more and more like the better option. Greinke, Garza, Guthrie, Arroyo, who else? They all look better than the above list of free agents.
I am very happy for this signing. It gives us the veteran presence that was felt this last 2 months. I really don’t know why everybody is talking about the age; seems they haven’t seen Ted pitch lately. What can be different in 3 years?
Ouch! If it is in fact 3 years/ $33mm, that’s quite a chunk for a 35 yo starter on the decline. I was figuring a fair deal would be 2/17mm.
$33 Million for 35 year old Ted Lilly is a “bargain?” Crazy.
Randy Wolf is the best comparison. He was 1 year younger when he signed his deal last off-season, but they have very similar career numbers. Baseball Reference even has Randy Wolf as the closest “Similar Pitcher”. Wolf has a slightly better career ERA, but Lilly has an edge in WHIP, K/9, BB/9, H/9. Lilly gives up more HR/9, but pitching in Dodger Stadium should help that a bit.
Wolf got $30m/3 years. Ted Lilly may be one year older, but he doesn’t have as questionable an injury record (Wolf missed time in 4 consecutive seasons from 2004 to 2007).
Overall, a fair deal. I think Lilly would have seen similar offers on the free agent market. I would have been happier with $30m/3 years as a Dodger fan, but $33m is reasonable.
Lilly’s “decline” is exaggerated. He posted a 1.079 WHIP this season, and it was 0.991 as a Dodger. Last season it was 1.056. Those are career bests.
A fair deal isn’t a bargain.
Agreed. Calling it a bargain is definitely a stretch.
Career bests in a contract year… shocking!
Career bests in a contract year… shocking!
And we all saw how Wolf did this year.
That’s the problem – they are comparable. And if Lilly turns in a year similar to Wolf’s 2010 campaign this will be an awful signing.
4.17 ERA and 215.2 IP isn’t terrible, but you’re right, definitely less than what you’re looking for at $11m.
Lol Heyman is calling it a bargain now but check back in a year to see if it is truly a bargain.
i dont like this deal at ALL for LA. i wouldn’t of gone more than 1 year with a club option if i was the Dodgers. if he doesn’t take that, let him walk and take the picks.
YES! Now Jim Hendry won’t sign him for a 5 year contract!
This is great news for the Cubs.
YES! Now Jim Hendry won’t sign him for a 5 year contract!
This is great news for the Cubs.
I don’t think this will work out well. I saw him pitch for the cubs, and he was no better than a back of the rotation starter. At his age, there are too many guaranteed years, too much $$$, as well. Ted Lilly is more of a 1 year with an option for another year, at about $5,000,000.
I don’t think this will work out well. I saw him pitch for the cubs, and he was no better than a back of the rotation starter. At his age, there are too many guaranteed years, too much $$$, as well. Ted Lilly is more of a 1 year with an option for another year, at about $5,000,000.
how about the dodgers forget about kuroda and padilla and go after CLIFF LEE please go and get him with that 83 mill payroll we just wasted 11 million so thats leaves us with 72 we should go after dunn for 3 years 30 mill which leaves us with 60 mill sign lee for 4 years 60 mill which leaves us with 45 mill sign barajas to a 2 year 6 million and gibbions to 2 years 4 million leaves us with 40 mill to do wat ever ned wants to do sign a cheap 5th started with the rest fo the money and a bullben arm
Maybe they can kick in a million to buy you some punctuation.
and maybe an abacus as well? 😉
spell checker?
Lobotomy?
how about the dodgers forget about kuroda and padilla and go after CLIFF LEE please go and get him with that 83 mill payroll we just wasted 11 million so thats leaves us with 72 we should go after dunn for 3 years 30 mill which leaves us with 60 mill sign lee for 4 years 60 mill which leaves us with 45 mill sign barajas to a 2 year 6 million and gibbions to 2 years 4 million leaves us with 40 mill to do wat ever ned wants to do sign a cheap 5th started with the rest fo the money and a bullben arm
how about the dodgers forget about kuroda and padilla and go after CLIFF LEE please go and get him with that 83 mill payroll we just wasted 11 million so thats leaves us with 72 we should go after dunn for 3 years 30 mill which leaves us with 60 mill sign lee for 4 years 60 mill which leaves us with 45 mill sign barajas to a 2 year 6 million and gibbions to 2 years 4 million leaves us with 40 mill to do wat ever ned wants to do sign a cheap 5th started with the rest fo the money and a bullben arm
Aside from the comments about your punctuation, math, and spelling there are some real serious flaws in your argument.
1. Cliff Lee is not going to sign for 4/$60m. The latest speculation is more like 7/$140-$160.
2. I’m assuming you are talking about Jay Gibbons (not familiar with a player named Gibbions). If that is the case then you would be crazy to sign him for 2/$4m. They guy signed a minor league deal to play with the Dodgers. Despite a very respectable 75 AB’s, I doubt any team will consider a multi-year deal OR one that pays $2m guaranteed.
how about the dodgers forget about kuroda and padilla and go after CLIFF LEE please go and get him with that 83 mill payroll we just wasted 11 million so thats leaves us with 72 we should go after dunn for 3 years 30 mill which leaves us with 60 mill sign lee for 4 years 60 mill which leaves us with 45 mill sign barajas to a 2 year 6 million and gibbions to 2 years 4 million leaves us with 40 mill to do wat ever ned wants to do sign a cheap 5th started with the rest fo the money and a bullben arm
I would say, “let the carping begin,” but I’d be too late, since it started with the rumor three days ago. Sign Kuroda for a couple more years and we’ll be in hailing distance of a solid rotation. Still a lot of work to do, but I’m closer to renewing my season ticket.
If Kuroda is looking for a raise on his $15.4m salary in 2010, I’d stay away… especially from multi-year contracts.
If he’d come back at under $12.5m/year, maybe with a $10m 2nd year option, I’d go for it.
But I see the offense as the major problem. I think we could get by with more moderately priced starters like Harang, Millwood, Padilla or maybe Chris Young if we pick up a bit bat like Beltre, Dunn, Werth, Martinez and/or Crawford.
I personally like Beltre because we could then platoon Loney (who was terrible vs. LHP) and Blake (who was terrible vs. RHP) at 1B.
I don’t get myself too involved with the numbers, as this changes from year to year depending on the available free agents. The pool of quality starting pitchers is pretty shallow this year, so that has to be taken into consideration. Padilla is welcome back IMO. Of course all Dodger fans have a soft spot for Beltre, but I think we have to admit that he only seems to have good offensive seasons when he’s up for free agency. He’s probably going to go for long years, at big numbers anyway. I am no fan of Adam Dunn. I didn’t want to see him in a Dodger uniform when he was a free agent last time, and I don’t now. It’s impossible to overlook his poor defense and I also don’t see his value in a pitching friendly park like Dodger Stadium.
IMO, Kuroda would figure to get at least the same, if not more, money than Lilly. He’s younger, has better stuff and was pretty good this year.
I just don’t think Kuroda would have been a realistic sign for the Dodgers.
Glad the Dodgers are spending 33 mil on Lilly instead of saving that money on a much needed bat like Adam Dunn.
Its not an awful deal. Lilly should be worth the contract for 2 yrs and by the 3rd yr even if he’s a 5th starter, he should still have a rotation spot.
Bottom line: Dodgers needed a guys like Lilly for the 3rd spot and after Cliff Lee, Lilly probably headed the best of the rest of FA SPs.
Someone else for sure would have given Lilly at least as much and I feel better with a Top 3 of Kershaw. Billz and Lilly versus Kershaw, Billz and Padilla.
Its not an awful deal. Lilly should be worth the contract for 2 yrs and by the 3rd yr even if he’s a 5th starter, he should still have a rotation spot.
Bottom line: Dodgers needed a guys like Lilly for the 3rd spot and after Cliff Lee, Lilly probably headed the best of the rest of FA SPs.
Someone else for sure would have given Lilly at least as much and I feel better with a Top 3 of Kershaw. Billz and Lilly versus Kershaw, Billz and Padilla.
Which part? The value or stats?
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Lets hope you are exactly right. The Dodgers have enough problems right now.
Someone on a minor league site pointed this out to me and it does make a lot of sense. Hopefully him working with the coaches in the offseason can help him with the errors and learn his bounds defensively
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