MLBTR has obtained the official Elias rankings for the upcoming offseason. The list below includes all ranked free agents, including those who have already signed, those who say they'll retire and those whose options will likely be picked up.
Once the regular season ended, the Elias Sports Bureau took all players over the 2009-10 period, divided them into five groups for each league, and ranked them based on various statistics. Each player was labeled a Type A, B, or none. Those designations and the possible accompanying arbitration offers determine draft pick compensation (click here for a refresher).
The numbers beside the players' names represent their rankings. If teams sign more than one Type A free agent, one team gets a top compensation pick and other teams lose out. The team losing the highest-ranked free agent obtains the best pick the signing team can offer and other teams fall in line behind the team that loses the top-ranked player.
Bronson Arroyo — 80.033 – club option
Grant Balfour — 72.923
Adrian Beltre — 81.633 – player option
Carl Crawford — 85.128
Jorge de la Rosa — 74.422
Scott Downs — 76.352
Adam Dunn — 74.167
Frank Francisco — 73.171
Jason Frasor — 73.383
Vladimir Guerrero — 80.000 – mutual option
Matt Guerrier — 79.569
Ramon Hernandez — 74.517
Derek Jeter — 91.304
Paul Konerko — 78.095
Jason Kubel — 80.000 – club option
Cliff Lee — 87.500
Derrek Lee — 74.167
Ted Lilly — 80.116
Victor Martinez — 87.054
Bengie Molina — 72.321
Magglio Ordonez — 77.436
Carl Pavano — 75.568
Andy Pettitte — 80.492
A.J. Pierzynski — 80.804
Manny Ramirez — 76.154
Arthur Rhodes — 72.229
Mariano Rivera — 88.830
Takashi Saito — 69.657
Rafael Soriano — 91.799
Miguel Tejada — 76.720
Matt Thornton — 86.214 – club option exercised
Billy Wagner — 83.313
Jayson Werth — 91.807
Dan Wheeler — 74.673 – club option
Rod Barajas — 59.459
Joaquin Benoit — 66.879
Lance Berkman — 64.762 – club option declined
John Buck — 67.411
Orlando Cabrera — 66.667
Randy Choate — 62.460
Kevin Correia — 57.591
Jesse Crain — 60.657
Johnny Damon — 74.359
Octavio Dotel — 66.473
Chad Durbin — 57.471
David Eckstein — 65.801
Mark Ellis — 74.405 – club option
Pedro Feliciano — 66.855
Brian Fuentes — 67.055
Jon Garland — 71.947 – mutual option
Alex Gonzalez — 61.376 – club option
Kevin Gregg — 66.967 – club option
Brad Hawpe — 70.769
Aaron Heilman — 58.420
Trevor Hoffman — 62.829 – club option
Orlando Hudson — 70.238
Aubrey Huff — 60.000
Omar Infante — 62.338 – club option
Brandon Inge — 67.347
Hiroki Kuroda — 68.152
Gerald Laird — 60.045
Adam LaRoche — 61.667 – mutual option
Felipe Lopez – 67.532 - club option
Mike Lowell — 62.585
Hideki Matsui — 73.333
Kevin Millwood — 58.617
Miguel Olivo — 65.251 – mutual option
David Ortiz — 75.000 – club option
Vicente Padilla — 58.168
Carlos Pena — 64.762
Jhonny Peralta — 62.585 – club option
Scott Podsednik — 69.880 – club option
J.J. Putz — 62.213
Chad Qualls — 56.168
Aramis Ramirez — 63.187 – player option
Jon Rauch — 69.088
Jose Reyes — 62.434 – club option
Hisanori Takahashi — 58.650
Yorvit Torrealba — 63.900 – mutual option
Koji Uehara — 68.010
Juan Uribe — 65.608
Jason Varitek — 64.732
Javier Vazquez — 71.970
Kerry Wood — 62.778 – club option declined
Eddie Bajek reverse-engineered the Elias rankings for MLBTR and was right on every free agent except for Derrek Lee, Adam Dunn and Mark Ellis, who were all on the bubble at their respective positions.
Adam Dunn is an A? Isn’t this also a difference?
Dunn wasn’t a Type A under Eddie’s last projections either. He fell off at the end of the season. Makes the Nats’ decision to not trade him even worse.
He is listing as a Type A free agent on this list… This is different than the projection
Haha, I suppose I could’ve actually read the post. I misunderstood Upperdec’s comment. My mistake. Oops.
But seriously, his B rank makes him even more valuable to prospective teams, because they don’t have to give up their first rounder to get him. Rizzo will have to pay even more to keep him in Washington.
except he’s actually an A, not a B. but thanks for playing.
Doesn’t it make their decision to not trade him better. Now they get a first rounder when he declines arb.
everyone of those relief pitchers with the Type A designation better be saying their prayers that they aren’t offered arbitration; and if they are offered they should accept it as soon as possible. I don’t see a single name on the RP list, or on the SP list (other than Lee), who I would forfeit a draft pick for. There may be a lot of unemployed pitchers going late into the off-season this year
Nah, I don’t think so. You’re forgetting that if teams sign quality FA’s and then some relief help, they would be giving up a 2nd or 3rd rounder making the decision extremely easy.
I agree that a guy like Jason Frasor has no hope as a Type A
but Scott Downs would and should generate plenty of interest and get himself a nice contract.
Soriano is more difficult because he is ranked so high very few players are slotted in front of him, but maybe a team with a protected pick takes him
If guys like Downs and Soriano are offered arbitration they will get higher salaries upon their acceptance than they will if they enter into free agency. TB will not offer Soriano Arbitration, no way they want to get stuck again wtih a high priced closer. Downs has no chance of getting an annual avg salary over what he would get wtih arbitration, and a less likely chance that a team will commit more to him than his arb number over multiple years and yield any sort of draft picks. This is one issue that needs to get addressed by the MLBPA in the next collective bargaining agreement, they are costing a lot of their members a large amount of freedom and money
are you insane?… sure he might not get more then 5 million a year, but he will EASILY get a 3/12 contract for one of the best non closing relievers in the league.
You can’t compare year by year. Scott downs would probably get a raise if he accepts arb to if he goes through free agency, but if he blows his arm out the second game he’ll have no contract to fall back on.
There is no chance that Scott Downs accepts arbitration, many teams are interested in him, and especially teams with protected picks wouldn’t mind losing a second rounder to solidify their bullpen.
Insane? not really…but some have questioned. How many of these teams with protected picks are going to forfeit an early pick AND commit 3 years to a RP? Makes no sense for a team that isn’t close to competing (protected pick), to give that much up in a commitment. Injury could happen to any player that is always the risk with a one year arbitration deal, pitcher, catcher, SS or any position. My point was IF he is offered Arbitration that will limit his market and drop his annual price and i stand by this.
He will be offered arbitration, and he will not accept it. I am willing to bet any money on this.
Teams outside of the AL east have a chance to go from ‘protected picks’ to playoffs teams. . Not to mention teams like the phillies, tampa, nationals, texas, etc who may lose Type A free agents, would be more willing to sign a type A because they have another pick coming there way.
Also teams like the yankees, red sox, etc who go after werth, crawford, lee or any other fa would be giving up a second or third round pick for the best non closer in the game. I mean imagine Downs setting up for philly or the yanks?
So I take it Vicente Padilla is unranked?
Error of omission on our part, he’s on there now.
Error of omission on our part, he’s on there now.
They are several teams that could use those relievers that didn’t have winning records. Therefore they’ll only lose second/compensation selections)
Also Saito was released so he wasn’t offered Arbitration.
Maybe I’m just failing to understand this, but are you by chance suggesting that some relievers aren’t type A because of their W-L records? If so, please delete this comment.
EDIT: Apparently I’m a numpty and misread your comment. Thanks to those below for correcting me.
Read it again. Typo on the first word aside, he’s clearly referring to the fact that plenty of teams with protected first round picks might have use for one of those Type A relievers.
It was a crude way of saying it though, as Detriot finished 16th [tied] yet weren’t under .500. That’s how I was thrown off.
No he’s saying that there are a bunch of teams with losing records that would be interested in type A free agent relievers because they wouldn’t have to forfeit their first round pick
I think he’s saying the teams don’t have winning record there for have a top 15 pick which is protected regardless of who they sign.
I think the White Sox have an interesting option on AJ Pierzynski. The guy had an off year, but he makes only around 7 million, which is not a ton. I think it makes a lot of sense for the Sox to offer him arbitration, as he’s better than any potential replacement they have in house, so unless they think they can sign V-Mart, why not?
if they offer arbitration he will get a raise. They are better off not offering and letting him walk. He will not get 7 mil in the open market
They’ve got Tyler Flowers and $7.5MM or so for AJ coming off a season that bad is awful. AJ would accept it in a heartbeat, and they’d be stuck paying about $7MM more than they could be paying Flowers. They’re better off saying bye and letting AJ go his own way.
Also Ted Lilly doesn’t belong on the list and neither does Brandon Inge since they have already signed.
“MLBTR has obtained the official Elias rankings for the upcoming offseason. The list below includes all ranked players, including those who have already signed, those who say they’ll retire and those whose options will likely be picked up.”Please read the post before you post.
okay, well lets offer arb to Pedro and grab our sandwich pick. i think if he was a type A, he would of probably accepted arb.
He would accept either way. He’ll make about $4 million if offered and accepted arbitration. He won’t make no $4 million next season unless someone goes crazy.
I’d say take the risk anyway
Dang, was hoping Thome would slip just barely into Type B…
So when Detroit signs Crawford and Pavano, Twins get their juicy #19 1st round pick?
Really, if the Twins offer aggressive arbitration (Pavano, Guerrier, Crain, Fuentes, Hudson, Rausch), and they walk, we could have a massive haul in draft picks.
Actually, Rays would win the thing between Crawford and Pavano, since he has a higher percentage.
I thought the team with the worse record (Twins) got the pick if multiple players were signed of the same Type?
it goes based on their elias rankings. Like when the Jays only got a 3rd rounder for losing burnette because Tex and CC we’re ranked ahead of AJ
It’s like this. If Crawford and Beltre are both offer arbitration. And they would both sign with a team outside the 15 safe picks, then the Rays would get their first round pick, and the Red Sox would their second round pick, since Crawford has a higher percentage than Beltre.
Yeah, I get it now. Did some homework. I don’t know where I got the impression the higher pick went to the team with the worse record from…
I blame the NFL.
That would be Waivers.
since when does felipe lopez have a team option, and for how much?
Manny Type A… White Sox PROBABLY not counting on 2 draft picks
Zero chance he gets offered arb
I dunno, maybe the Sox are feeling generous and have nothing better to do with $25MM… 🙂
If that’s the case, then I’m available to play DH and spot-start LF. Hell, I’ll take a paycut and play for $5MM 😛
Whats your career obp?
His career OBP is so good he has never actually given up an out.
My career OBP is 1.000, going 0 for 0 in that span. Got to love the odds of me getting on base with that type of consistancy.
Wish Lee could be offered arbitration, but nope, he would accept so the Braves could pay him like $15-$20 million next season. Wagner will be a Brave or retire. Gonzalez’s option will be picked up.
Yeah Wagner’s already signed for next year so he shouldn’t be here.
“MLBTR has obtained the official Elias rankings for the upcoming offseason. The list below includes all ranked players, including those who have already signed, those who say they’ll retire and those whose options will likely be picked up.”
Note word: RETIRE
Can teams talk to players with player options or is that considered tampering?
I thought there was a hard deadline when player and club options had to be exercised or declined. After that date all’s fair. Pretty sure it’s like 8 days after the WS ends or something along those lines.
I’ve seen deadlines from 3-7 days after the World Series ends.
Tampering. Until a player officially files for FA or declines an option, no other team can make any overtures to them, official or unofficial.
I am surprised that Pena is a Type B. Also, what is the story with Kuroda? Does he warrant compensation if offered arbitration or not?
If offered and declined, he’ll get the Dodgers a compensation pick for between the first and second rounds.
so adam dunn is a type A just like he should be
i will sleep easier 2night and i imagine the nats will too
just for the record
im confused about how this whole story goes with compnesation and aj burnett a couple years back
i was under the impression if a team signs lets say 3 type A’s then that team gives up its 1st 2nd and 3rd round pick but the teams they were signed away from still get sandwich picks at the end of the 1st round before the 2nd round? is this not correct??? if not please explain
How it works is, and lets use the yankees as an example since you already mentioned it.
So the yankees sign three type As, CC, Tex and AJ.. Each one has an overall number which is their elias ranking. CC is highest, Tex 2nd and Aj 3rd.
So therefore the Brewers get the yanks 1st round draft pick and sandwich pick
The Angels get the yankees 2nd round draft pick and a sandwich pick
The Jays get the yankees 3rd round draft pick and a sandwich pick
The first round is only extended when protected picks from the year before fail to sign, so the teams get the exact same pick, plus 1 in the next draft.
What is everyone’s view on Grant Balfour. Will he be offered arbitration?
I would say there’s a fair chance. His 2010 salary should be modest enough (~$2MM) that the Rays won’t suffer much if he accepts and he’s a useful reliever. The reward if he declines outpaces the risk of him accepting, since the latter case wouldn’t actually be that bad.
The Elias ranking system just goes to show that it only takes one off year for Big Bad Vlad Guerrero to be no better than Jason Kubel. Tisk.
How can David Ortiz be a 75 and be a Type B while Dunn is 74.167 and be a Type A?
1B/OF/DH are all ranked together, right?
ARod gave something back to baseball, IMO, when he dumped Scott Boros. Rafi Soriano gave no indication that he was about the money, until he recently signed with Boros.
BUT, the rumors now are that Carlos Pena, another Boros client, might be working out a deal with the Rays. Is this going to be a Two-fer? And Soriano signing with the Rays? A couple weeks ago I would not have thought so. But now, I wouldn’t rule it out.