Midseason Trade Candidates: American League
It's never too early to try to predict which players will be traded in July. Here's a look at American League possibilities.
This is not meant as a slight toward the Orioles, Indians, Royals, and Mariners, but their chances of contention in 2011 appear slim. Given their division, the Blue Jays face long odds as well. Anything is possible; I pegged the Padres as deadline sellers before the 2010 season.
- If the Orioles shift into sell mode, veterans on one-year deals or in the last year of their contracts such as Vladimir Guerrero, Derrek Lee, Mike Gonzalez, Koji Uehara, Justin Duchscherer, and Cesar Izturis could be available. Though they're controlled beyond 2011, Luke Scott, Jeremy Guthrie, Mark Reynolds, Kevin Gregg, Josh Bell, Nolan Reimold, and Felix Pie might not be off-limits either. Keep in mind that if the Orioles are hovering around .500 at the trade deadline they may decide to keep everyone or even add a piece.
- Grady Sizemore headlines the Indians' list of movable trade chips, if he has a solid, healthy first half. Fausto Carmona would be tougher to pry loose, while recent signees Austin Kearns, Chad Durbin, Orlando Cabrera, and Nick Johnson should be available. Shin-Soo Choo, though under team control through 2013, could command multiple top prospects if the Indians decide to cash him in.
- Joakim Soria could reasonably be part of the next good Royals club, so he probably won't be available. Jason Kendall, Kyle Davies, Jeff Francoeur, Bruce Chen, Jeff Francis, Robinson Tejeda, Melky Cabrera, and Wilson Betemit should be fair game.
- The Mariners recently stated they won't be trading Felix Hernandez. Instead, Chone Figgins, Jack Wilson, David Aardsma, Jack Cust, Brandon League, Chris Ray, Manny Delcarmen, and Erik Bedard could find themselves in the rumor mill.
- The Blue Jays held on to their relievers last summer. If they lessen their demands this year, they could offer Frank Francisco, Jon Rauch, Jason Frasor, Octavio Dotel, and Shawn Camp. Juan Rivera, Aaron Hill, and Edwin Encarnacion seem like potential trade candidates as well.
- Kelly Shoppach and James Shields of the Rays, Marco Scutaro and Mike Cameron of the Red Sox, Michael Young of the Rangers, and Edwin Jackson of the White Sox could be trade chips even with these teams in contention. And don't forget the possibility of would-be contenders flopping badly and selling off parts, similar to the '10 Mariners.
- One thing you will not notice in this group of speculative trade candidates for the American League is a frontline starting pitcher. Even identifying a good surprise candidate is tough, unless things go awry for the Twins and they field offers for Francisco Liriano.
Release Candidate: Sergio Mitre
Some scouts are "convinced the Yankees are going to release Sergio Mitre," reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The club has two open rotation spots and one long relief job, which could go to Freddy Garcia, Bartolo Colon, and Ivan Nova in some combination.
If the Yankees release Mitre prior to March 28th, he'd only be due 45 days termination pay, which on his $900K salary equals $222,527. If they release him after that they'd owe the full $900K, less the prorated portion of the league minimum if he signs elsewhere. So either way the bill to let Mitre go should be less than $500K.
Mitre, 30, owns a 5.03 ERA, 5.2 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, and 1.4 HR/9 in 105 2/3 big league innings across two seasons for the Yankees, tossing another 68 innings in the minors. He's been homer-prone despite strong groundball rates. Mitre had Tommy John surgery in July of 2008, earning a release from the Marlins a few months later. He signed a split contract with the Yankees that November. While rehabbing his elbow, Mitre picked up a 50-game suspension for violating MLB's drug policy. Later in his Yankees career, he was retained for the '10 and '11 seasons as an arbitration eligible player.
Would-Be Walk Years
If not for an extension widely expected to be signed with the Red Sox, first baseman Adrian Gonzalez would be entering his walk year with a chance to join Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols on the free agent market. What other players would have been free agents for the first time after the 2011 season, if not for multiyear deals signed earlier?
Adrian Gonzalez Extension Talks May Resume Soon
Adrian Gonzalez's agent John Boggs will visit Fort Myers next week, according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports, and extension talks with the Red Sox for his client may resume at that time. Everything appears to be going according to plan, with a deal more likely after Opening Day. Alex Speier's December 5th article for WEEI explained why waiting until then to sign Gonzalez to an extension could save the team millions on their 2011 luxury tax bill.
Although vibes are positive from Boggs and the team, it is important to note that no agreement is in place. Morosi has the key quote from Boggs:
"We don’t have a term sheet signed. There’s nothing agreed to right now. But I fully expect we’ll start moving in a positive direction again in the near future. There is a mutual understanding of where our bottom line is. We’re going to try to pick up where we left off in December."
Reportedly, a seven-year contract in the $154MM range will get it done. Boggs told Morosi that Gonzalez assured the Red Sox he wouldn't change his December asking price.
Boggs has a pair of other young clients that I imagine he'll be checking in on in the near future: Trevor Cahill and Cole Hamels. ESPN's Buster Olney tweeted in December that the A's were exploring a Cahill extension, while Cole Hamels hopes to remain with the Phillies long-term according to Morosi and Ken Rosenthal. Hamels is under the team's control through 2012, with an eight-figure arbitration reward likely for that season.
Quick Hits: Peavy, Kontos, Rowand, Reyes
Some links to round out this Monday evening..
- Even though he's now with the White Sox, Jake Peavy still looks back fondly on his time with the Padres, writes Barry M. Bloom of MLB.com.
- MLB.com's Corey Brock writes that Rule 5 pick George Kontos was a longshot to make San Diego's bullpen. Earlier today the club returned the right-hander to the Yankees.
- The Giants would be better off releasing Aaron Rowand, opines Grant Brisbee of McCovey Chronicles.
- Left-hander Jo-Jo Reyes is out of options but MLB.com's Gregor Chisholm expects the Blue Jays to keep him on the 25-man roster.
- Now with his third club, the Orioles' J.J. Hardy is looking to get his career back on track, writes Brittany Ghiroli of MLB.com.
Rosenthal On Teahen, Linares, Red Sox
A couple of Spring Training notes from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports..
- The White Sox are open to trading Mark Teahen, who is set to earn $4.75MM this season and $5.5MM in 2012. At the moment, the veteran is little more than a pricey utility man, though he could serve as insurance for rookie third baseman Brent Morel. The youngster is viewed as an outstanding defender who might not be able to produce at the plate immediately. Manager Ozzie Guillen is likely in favor of keeping Teahen as he believes that he can find significant playing time for him if Morel wins the starting job at third base.
- Teams are asking the Red Sox about right-handed hitting outfielder Juan Carlos Linares. Boston signed the Cuban defector 2009 for $750K. Linares is currently set to open the season in Triple-A but the club doesn't want to sacrifice any depth. Because of that, we probably won't see them move any significant pieces before Opening Day.
Collins Wants Mets To Release Castillo
Mets manager Terry Collins does not want to see second baseman Luis Castillo on the Opening Day roster, a baseball insider tells Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com. Collins, the source says, wants to limit the drama around the club and releasing Castillo potentially helps that cause.
Collins may not get his way as the decision is not solely his. One rival executive believes that the skipper will get his way and Castillo won't be with the team by the end of Spring Training. Meanwhile, scouts say Castillo is the best candidate to man second base, partly because his competition is less-than-fierce.
Even though Castillo might not have the manager's support, Rule 5 pick Brad Emaus has a backer in team executive J.P. Ricciardi. The 24-year-old infielder hasn't impressed so far in the Grapefruit League.
Central Notes: Royals, Chisenhall, Theriot, Brewers
Let's take a look at some items from both the AL and NL Central..
- Royals manager Ned Yost told the Associated Press that he would like to have two left-handers in the bullpen to start the year, though he won't have two southpaw relievers just for the sake of it. For the time being, it sounds like Kansas City will look for an answer in-house, starting with their newest acquisition Robert Fish.
- When asked if service time factored into the decision to demote Lonnie Chisenhall, Indians GM Chris Antonetti said, "That's certainly not the case," tweets Jordan Bastian of MLB.com.
- After being dealt from the Dodgers to the Cardinals, Ryan Theriot says that he's looking to play the way he did in 2008, writes MLB.com's Matthew Leach. In '08, Theriot posted a slash line of .307/.387/.359 for the Cubs.
- Chris Cwik of Fangraphs wonders if the Brewers' acquisition of Zack Greinke has left them too thin in some areas.
Mets Rumors: Perez, Collins, DePodesta
Hot dogs, green grass all out at Shea. Here are some Mets links for you today..
- Plenty of people in the Mets organization are ready to give up on Oliver Perez, but pitching coach Dan Warthen is still a believer, writes Andy Martino of the New York Daily News. Sources say that several prominent voices in the organization have been wanting to cut the left-hander for weeks, but Perez is still in camp thanks in large part to Warthen's support. Even with the backing of the pitching coach, Perez will probably be released before Opening Day as many in the front office are skeptical that Perez can recapture some of his old magic as a reliever.
- Terry Collins and Paul DePodesta are reunited with the Mets, writes Steve Henson of Yahoo Sports. When he was the GM of the Dodgers, DePodesta pushed for Collins to become the club's next skipper after Jim Tracy. Owner Frank McCourt ultimately rejected the idea and fired DePodesta. When the 61-year-old was being considered for the Mets' managerial position, DePodesta gave a strong reccomendation to his boss, Sandy Alderson.
- The trustee in charge of recovering the money lost by the victims of the Bernie Madoff ponzi scheme plans to go after more funds associated with owners of the Mets, a source within baseball told ESPNNewYork.com's Adam Rubin. The trustee already is seeking $1 billion from Mets principal owner Fred Wilpon and his family.
Heyman On Castillo, Beltre, Belisario, Ackley
Carlos Silva looks like he has earned a release based on his spring performance, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com. Like Oliver Perez, Silva is set to earn $12MM in 2011. Here are the rest of Heyman’s rumors, including the latest on another candidate to be released…
- Heyman hears that Luis Castillo has looked better than the others in competition for the Mets second base job. Castillo's performance and the lack of a standout alternative may reduce the chances that the Mets release him.
- When Rangers GM Jon Daniels asked Adrian Beltre why two of his best seasons came in contract years, Beltre’s response was succinct: “I wish I [expletive] knew.”
- Ronald Belisario is having trouble getting a visa, so the Dodgers aren’t counting on him this year.
- Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik says Dustin Ackley, the second overall pick in 2009, has “a shot” to make the team out of Spring Training.