Make Or Break Year: Jeff Francis
Jeff Francis seemed headed for stardom when, at the age of 26, he won 17 games and pitched in the World Series. This offseason, in his first appearance on the free agent market, he signed with the Royals for $2MM plus incentives. It's a modest guarantee for a pitcher who still has promise entering 2011.
Teams aren't going to commit aggressively to pitchers who post 5.00 ERAs, especially if they aren't far removed from serious shoulder issues. Francis' ERA sat precisely at 5.00 after 104 1/3 innings of work last year, in his return to the majors after missing the 2009 campaign with shoulder surgery. The former 9th overall pick wasn't in position to command much as a free agent, even after a successful return to the major leagues.
But things could be different next offseason. Francis, who just turned 30 in January, is still relatively young. And if he puts together a full season, he'll have an easier time convincing teams that his shoulder is no longer a concern.
Though Francis' 2010 ERA and 4-6 record don't look good, his peripheral stats do. He posted a robust 47% ground ball rate last year, striking out nearly three times as many hitters as he walked. What's more, his FIP and xFIP suggest he was more deserving of an ERA under 4.00. And while the American League has the DH, it doesn't have Coors Field, the only home park Francis has known as a big leaguer.
There are no guarantees for Francis or for his new team. If he encounters more shoulder problems or struggles to surpass last year's innings total, the market for him won't be strong after the season. But a healthy year and a little more luck could position Francis for the big free agent contract he didn't sign this past offseason.
Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.
NL Central Notes: Cubs, McClellan, Wallace, Rogers
Notes from the NL Central as Opening Day draws closer…
- Patrick Mooney of CSNChicago.com hears from Cubs sources that the team isn't talking to the Rangers about Michael Young. The Cubs maintain that they’re comfortable with Jeff Baker and Blake DeWitt at second base.
- Kyle McClellan solidified his bid to become the Cardinals' fifth starter today. As MLB.com's Matthew Leach reports, the converted setup man pitched five shutout innings against the Braves, which presumably lessens the chances that the Cards look outside of the organization for starting pitching. I took a look at McClellan's role in St. Louis last week.
- Brett Wallace collected four hits and drove in seven today, according to MLB.com's Brittany Ghiroli. The Astros acquired the first baseman from the Blue Jays last summer after obtaining Anthony Gose from the Phillies in the Roy Oswalt deal. Wallace is vying to become Houston's everyday first baseman.
- As MLB.com's Adam McCalvy reports, the Brewers optioned pitching prospect Mark Rogers to Triple-A today because they weren't confident his shoulder stiffness would go away in time for the season. Once he's at full strength, Rogers remains a candidate to fill in for Zack Greinke, who is expected to miss a few starts with a fractured rib.
Draft Prospect Q&A: George Springer
As the 2011 Draft draws closer, MLBTR will be introducing you to a handful of the top eligible prospects with a series of Q&As. The series started with three of the top college pitchers in the nation and continues today with a college position player.
Teams looking for powerful outfielders with speed to spare will be intrigued by George Springer of the UConn Huskies. The 6'4" 21-year-old has improved his draft stock dramatically since the Twins selected him in the 48th round of the 2008 draft; Springer is now a projected first round pick.
In its college baseball preview, Baseball America described Springer as one of the nation's best power hitters, who's a superb defender and a "plus-plus" runner to boot.
He hit 18 homers with 33 steals, 60 walks, 84 runs and a .491 on-base average last year, prompting ESPN.com's Keith Law to rate him second among eligible prospects last month. Law described Springer as "an athletic outfielder with an above-average arm who projects to hit and hit for power and just needs to refine his approach, especially with two strikes."
Springer started slowly and some said to ESPN that he changed his mechanics. After collecting just three hits in his first six games (22 at bats), Springer appears to have rediscovered his stroke, as his numbers are on the rise.
He spoke with MLBTR after UConn's loss to Sacred Heart today. Here's what he had to say:
AL East Notes: Martinez, Crawford, Sanchez
Daisuke Matsuzaka had his best outing of the spring against the Tigers today, allowing two hits and a walk in five scoreless innings, striking out five. Here's the latest on the AL East, as the Red Sox and their fans gain a little confidence in the back of their rotation…
- Victor Martinez, who was playing against his former team this afternoon, told the Boston Herald that he "loved" Boston and has no hard feelings toward the Red Sox. V-Mart added that he thinks the Red Sox are offseason winners because they improved their pitching and offense.
- Alex Speier of WEEI.com wonders what might have happened if the Red Sox had re-signed Martinez. A team source tells Speier that the Red Sox thought there was a chance the backstop would return. But as we heard earlier in the offseason, the Red Sox had doubts about Martinez's ability to catch long-term.
- If Martinez had returned, Speier hears that the Red Sox would have had the resources to pursue either Carl Crawford or Adrian Gonzalez, but not both.
- Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports hears that Yankees right-hander Romulo Sanchez has been impressing scouts (Twitter link). The out-of-options 26-year-old could fit on a team looking for relief help, according to Rosenthal.
Collins May Prefer Hernandez To Castillo
Mets manager Terry Collins downplayed rumors that he wants the team's front office to release Luis Castillo and said that the second baseman has "picked it up" recently, according to Rich Coutinho of MetsBlog. Despite Collins' statements, the Mets' second base situation remains murky.
Mike Puma of the New York Post hears that Collins remains committed to making Luis Hernandez the team's starting second baseman, but Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork hears that Hernandez has just an "outside" shot at the job (Twitter links).
Hernandez and Castillo are in competition with Daniel Murphy and Rule 5 pick Brad Emaus for the starting second base job. Castillo is set to earn $6MM in 2011, the last year of his four-year, $25MM contract and the Mets appear prepared to absorb the 35-year-old's salary if he doesn't have a role on the team. He hit .235/.337/.267 last year and spent 47 days on the DL recovering from a left foot injury.
Potential Suitors For Chris Davis
Teams are asking the Rangers about Chris Davis and, by the sounds of it, he wouldn't mind if they listened to offers. Davis told Tim MacMahon of ESPNDallas.com that he wouldn't oppose a trade if the Rangers were interested in making one.
“I just want to be in the big leagues, whether it’s here or somewhere else,” Davis said. “In all fairness, I’ve done everything the Rangers have asked me to do. I’ve been a good sport about it. I’ve had a smile on my face and a good attitude about it. When it comes down to it, the fair thing to do is to give me a shot either here or somewhere else.”
Mitch Moreland is the favorite to become the Rangers' regular first baseman, so Davis, who has an option remaining, could find himself headed back to the minors despite his strong spring. But the 24-year-old Texan has some appeal to other clubs.
So which teams could use a powerful, affordable player who can play first and third and who has yet to hit left-handed pitching or hold down a job in the majors for a full season? Here's a speculative look at some teams that may have called GM Jon Daniels about the former top prospect:
- D'Backs – Though the D'Backs have been discussing another one of Texas' infielders, Davis doesn't appear to be a likely fit for Arizona. The D'Backs already have a couple veteran third basemen and three left-handed first basemen (Brandon Allen, Juan Miranda and Russell Branyan) in the mix.
- Marlins – Another one of the teams that inquired about Michael Young, the Marlins could acquire Davis to complement right-handed corner players Matt Dominguez, Gaby Sanchez and Wes Helms.
- Indians – Jason Donald, Matt LaPorta and Jayson Nix, three right-handed hitters, figure to get most of the playing time at the corners for now. Two left-handed hitters, Nick Johnson and top prospect Lonnie Chisenhall, threaten to join the big league club before long, but until then the Indians could mix Davis' left-handed bat in and see what happens.
- Rays – Though Dan Johnson and Ben Zobrist are capable of playing first, the Rays might like the idea of buying low on Davis.
- Blue Jays – The Blue Jays could also be intrigued. However, they appear set at the corners and DH with Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and Adam Lind.
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Ian Snell Retires
Pitcher Ian Snell has retired, tweets B.J. Rains of FOXSportsMidwest.com. The Cardinals sent Snell to minor league camp and he instead elected to hang up his cleats. Snell, 29, had signed a minor league contract with the Cardinals in January after being let go by the Mariners. He was described as eager and excited just last month upon arriving in Florida.
Snell's best season was 2007, when as a 25-year-old he posted a 3.76 ERA in 208 innings. That performance earned him a three-year, $8.6MM extension, but he quickly lost effectiveness.
Offseason In Review: Atlanta Braves
The Braves are next in our Offseason In Review series.
Major League/International Signings
- Alex Gonzalez, SS: one year, $2.5MM. Club option exercised.
- Eric Hinske, 1B/LF: one year, $1.45MM.
- George Sherrill, RP: one year, $1.2MM.
- $500K buyouts for Kyle Farnsworth and Rick Ankiel
- Total spend: $6.15MM.
Notable Minor League Signings
Extensions
- Dan Uggla, 2B: five years, $62MM.
Trades and Claims
- Claimed OF Joe Mather off waivers from Cardinals
- Acquired 2B Dan Uggla from Marlins for IF Omar Infante and RP Mike Dunn
- Acquired RP Scott Linebrink and $3.5MM from White Sox for P Kyle Cofield
- Claimed RP Anthony Varvaro off waivers from Mariners
Notable Losses
- Billy Wagner, Takashi Saito, Kyle Farnsworth, Omar Infante, Mike Dunn, Kyle Cofield, Scott Diamond, Melky Cabrera, Troy Glaus, Matt Diaz, Derrek Lee, Rick Ankiel
Summary
The Braves' winter kicked off with the October hiring of Fredi Gonzalez as manager. GM Frank Wren's ensuing offseason was one of the game's best, as he was able to avoid a soaring free agent market and trade for a star player at a discount.
Uggla's acquisition price and the Marlins' willingness to trade him within the division surprised me. The Braves came out smelling like roses, giving up one year of a good utility player and a hard-throwing but wild reliever. Uggla (pictured) seems to boost the Braves' offense more than most available left fielders would have. However, adding four years and $52MM for Uggla doesn't seem like much of a discount compared to his expected free agent contract. Had he not been extended, Uggla might have been looking at an additional $5-9MM over the 2011-15 seasons.
The Braves lost Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez from their pen in the previous offseason and signed Wagner and Saito as replacements. Those two have since departed as well. The Braves continued the veteran reliever cycle for just $3.2MM for Sherrill and Linebrink, also retaining arbitration eligible Scott Proctor for $750K. All three represent cases of buying low, but even if they don't bounce back the Braves will have a full season of Craig Kimbrel and other holdovers like Jonny Venters, Peter Moylan, and Eric O'Flaherty. The organization's power arms in the minors accentuate the fact that only secondary bullpen additions were needed.
I liked several of Wren's smaller moves this offseason. He retained Hinske without adding a second year. Lopez, who pitched 200 innings last year, adds rotation depth on a minor league deal. Mather is a good athlete who figures to make the team as an extra outfielder.
Because of the depth they've accumulated, the Braves were able to avoid the high end of the free agent market for first basemen, starting pitchers, and relievers. The club's rotation depth should take them far, and with many good young pitchers pushing toward the Majors they may even have a surplus soon. The Braves may be exposed in left and center field if Prado has to fill in for Chipper Jones at third base for an extended period of time. I expect Wren to be active on the trade market if the outfield does become a concern.
Ben Nicholson-Smith contributed to this post. Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.
Rangers Manager Seeks Experienced Closer
Rangers manager Ron Washington seeks an experienced closer if Neftali Feliz goes to the rotation, reports MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan. Washington told Sullivan he has confidence that GM Jon Daniels can find that reliever; Tim MacMahon of ESPN Dallas/Fort Worth has quotes. Feliz recently changed his mind and expressed a preference to start, which seems to match the Rangers' choice.
Sullivan names Alexi Ogando and Mark Lowe as the "leading in-house candidates" to close, but notes that neither has much ninth inning experience. Lefties Darren Oliver and Arthur Rhodes have seen just about everything, but they're not known for closing either.
Speculating on potentially available experienced closers, Heath Bell, David Aardsma (when he's healthy), Francisco Rodriguez, and Mike Gonzalez come to mind. The Blue Jays have four relievers with closing experience in Frank Francisco (if healthy), Jason Frasor, Octavio Dotel, and Jon Rauch. Dotel and Rauch, I believe, cannot be dealt without their consent until after June 15th. By the way, if you're looking for instant closer updates to help you win your fantasy league, follow @closernews on Twitter.