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Revisiting Early Managerial Changes

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When should Terry Francona go? Obviously, whenever he wants. The two-time World Series winner isn't going anywhere; nor should he.

Still, with the Boston Red Sox starting 0-4, the worry in some corners of New England is palpable well beyond the Massachusetts border. Other Boston fans have a more sanguine view, as one observer I spoke to noted: "I've seen the Red Sox lose a road series before."

A four-game losing streak could even be taken as an omen for the Red Sox. In 2007, Boston's last World Series victory, the team had three such losing streaks. In 2004, the Red Sox lost five straight to start the month of May, then another four straight from May 31 through June 4. (They also lost three in a row to begin the ALCS against the Yankees.)

Still, if Theo Epstein goes against every parameter that has marked his successful tenure and rashly fires his manager on the basis of a ludicrously small sample, should he expect huge changes? Let's look at some examples.

Back in 2002, the Detroit Tigers believed Phil Garner was the right man to pilot their team. But after an 0-6 start, all of that changed somehow. Garner got the ax, and Luis Pujols took the helm. Rejuvenated, the Tigers won 55 games – but also, lost 100. Still, the evidence is clear: Detroit avoided a 0-162 record (Garner's pace) with the change.

In 1985, the New York Yankees struggled to a 6-10 start under Yogi Berra. George Steinbrenner fired the living legend and replaced him with Billy Martin, who helped New York to a 91-54 finish. The team's 97 wins came within two victories of first place. If only Steinbrenner had been more impulsive, it might have been enough to give the Yankees a pennant.

That's not to say an earlier firing always works. For instance, Steinbrenner also fired Bob Lemon after just 14 games, and a 6-8 record, in 1982. Gene Michael (44-42) and Clyde King (29-33) didn't do much better. Perhaps Lemon needed to go sooner, or this needed to be one of the five times Steinbrenner hired Martin. Or perhaps replacing Reggie Jackson with Dave Collins wasn't an inspired idea.

Still, rashly firing the manager can happen too early. Back in 1954, Phil Cavaretta got his walking papers in Spring Training after apparently expressing pessimism to the owner. Despite the change to Stan Hack, Chicago finished 64-90.

So as the Red Sox (or, more accurately, some callers into WEEI) mull the change, they must be careful. Unjustly firing the manager over a very small body of work is as much an art as it is a science.

Offseason In Review: Los Angeles Dodgers

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The Dodgers are next in our Offseason In Review series.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Summary

You've heard repeatedly that the biggest story of the offseason for the Dodgers was owner Frank McCourt's divorce.  At this point the question is whether Commissioner Bud Selig will approve McCourt's proposed television deal with Fox, allowing him to settle his divorce and resolve some of the team's massive debt.  While the situation surely prevented GM Ned Colletti from bidding on Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth this winter, he did guarantee over $125MM to 11 free agents and Chad Billingsley.  The Dodgers were one of the most aggressive teams in baseball in free agent spending as Colletti assembled a team for new manager Don Mattingly.

The Billingsley extension was Colletti's best move of the offseason, as two free agent years were acquired affordably and a club option was included.  MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith estimated savings of at least $6MM for the club.  Not to take away credit from Colletti, but it appears this extension fell into his lap.  Reportedly, agent Dave Stewart recommended the pitcher wait until after the season but Billingsley instructed him to broker a deal as soon as possible.

Kuroda

Similarly, Kuroda (pictured) was eager to re-sign on a team-friendly deal with the Dodgers, and he never felt the need to field offers from other clubs.  Re-signing the second-best free agent starter on a one-year commitment was a big win for Colletti, who at least deserves praise for the original signing in '07 that led to this goodwill.

Had he made it to the open market, Lilly might have placed ahead of Kuroda as the second-best free agent starter – especially if the Dodgers chose not to offer him arbitration.  Instead, they extended him at a fair price in October after a strong 12-start stint.  By early November, the huge rotation uncertainty expected from Kuroda and Lilly's free agency was resolved. 

The Garland signing was the icing on the cake; a solid 200 inning arm fell to the Dodgers for just $5MM.  Garland probably won't actually hit 200 innings in 2011, as a spring oblique strain should have him right around the 190 inning threshold that could turn this into a two-year deal.  I liked the depth added by the affordable Padilla signing as well at the time, but since then the righty required elbow surgery.  Colletti didn't out-fox other GMs in signing so many pitchers below market rates, but the moves do reflect well on the organization.

The Uribe and Guerrier additions were market-rate signings.  Uribe rose to the top in a weak free agent market for middle infielders, but it's a sizeable commitment for a guy with a .300 OBP.  His versatility should come in handy, at least, and it's nice to hurt the Giants slightly.  The Dodgers were also the one team willing to add a third year for Guerrier, whose recent success has relied on limiting hits allowed rather than striking batters out.  I'm wary of that kind of commitment to a 32-year-old reliever who struck out 89 in 147 1/3 innings over the last two years.

The Dodgers' pitching staff looks strong top to bottom.  Scoring runs should be an issue, with the low OBPs of Uribe and Barajas and a possible lack of corner infield power from James Loney and Casey Blake.  The left field mix of Thames, Gwynn, and Gibbons figures to prove dicey offensively or defensively, depending on who's out there.  I'd hate to see the Dodgers waste this pitching staff, which includes Clayton Kershaw's last cheap season.  To compete, they'll need big offensive years from Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, and Rafael Furcal, plus a few surprises at other spots in the batting order.

Ben Nicholson-Smith contributed to this post.  Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

Pirates Release Craig Hansen

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The Pirates announced that they released right-hander Craig Hansen, a former first rounder who was part of the 2008 Jason Bay trade. Pirates Prospects first reported the move.

The 6'6" 27-year-old arrived in Pittsburgh nearly thee years ago, when the Pirates sent Bay to Boston. Hansen appeared in 21 games for the Pirates over the course of two seasons, posting a 6.95 ERA with twice as many walks (24) as strikeouts (12). A rare nerve injury limited Hansen to 12 minor league appearances in 2010 and sidelined him for much of 2009.

Bryan Morris is the lone player from the Bay trade remaining in the Pirates' organization, now that Brandon Moss, Andy LaRoche and Hansen have been released. In 133 2/3 minor league innings last year, Morris posted a 3.03 ERA with 8.3 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9. For the Pirates to salvage something of value from the Bay trade, Morris will have to provide value in the Major Leagues.

New York Notes: Pavano, Posada, Mets

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Links for Wednesday, before Carl Pavano faces some former teammates in the Bronx…

  • Yankees manager Joe Girardi confirmed to Spencer Fordin of MLB.com that the Yankees were considering Pavano last offseason, despite his injury-riddled stint with the club from 2005-08. "He's resurrected his career," Girardi said. "He's pitched well for the Twins, and he's given them innings. When we've faced him in the playoffs, he's pitched well. The guy knows how to pitch. The big thing for Carl is he's been healthy."
  • Neither the Yankees front office nor Girardi seems to assume Jorge Posada will re-sign in New York after the season, when his contract expires, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Posada, who turns 40 in August, does not want to leave and intends to produce and force the Yankees’ hand.
  • Newsday's Ken Davidoff looks back at the Mets' recent GMs and managers and says the organization hasn't come close to maximizing its resources because of ineffective leaders. Sandy Alderson is the Mets' best hire since Frank Cashen, according to Davidoff.
  • MLBTR's Howard Megdal ranked Cashen as the best GM in Mets franchise history during the offseason.

Olney On Astros, Castro, Dodgers

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ESPN.com's Buster Olney is not buying Boston's slow start, though no World Series winner has ever opened the season with four consecutive losses. Another 0-4 team, the Rays, entered the year with a fragile equation for success and may be more vulnerable than their struggling division rivals, Olney says. Here are more rumblings from around baseball:

  • Rival scouts don’t see much MLB caliber hitting on the Astros other than Hunter Pence, Michael Bourn and Carlos Lee. The over/under for Astros wins in 2011 should be 60, according to one scout. Houston won 76 games last year and has a solid rotation, so I'll take the over on that one.
  • A couple of years ago, Cubs GM Jim Hendry described Starlin Castro as someone who could remind us of Edgar Renteria. The 21-year-old shortstop already has 10 hits this season and could become one of the top shortstops in baseball.
  • The Dodgers are paying some deferred money this year, but Olney points out that their payroll has dropped from $118MM to $92MM since 2008. Owner Frank McCourt is trying to come up with $200MM to maintain the rights to the franchise.

Offseason In Review: Toronto Blue Jays

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The Blue Jays are next in our Offseason In Review series.

Major League Signings

International Signings

  • Jairo Labour, Francisco Tejada

    • 

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Summary

The 2010-11 offseason was another active one for Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos, filled with low-risk free agent signings, intriguing deals, a major extension and the hiring of manager John Farrell.  Pull up a chair.

A couple of last winter's signings, John Buck and Kevin Gregg, improved their stock playing for the 2010 Blue Jays, each contributing a supplemental draft pick to the club as a parting gift.  The four veteran relievers acquired this winter, all in the $3-4MM salary range, must be viewed with Anthopoulos' draft pick obsession in mind.  The Blue Jays also bolstered the trade value of Dotel, Rauch, and Frasor by getting reasonable club options for 2012.  On the surface the four relievers will replace Downs and Gregg, but the bigger picture seems to be about future value in terms of draft picks or trades.  The signings are also forward-facing moves in that the Jays' young starters might be their greatest asset, and they'll be aided by a reliable bullpen.

For further proof of Anthopoulos' draft pick hoarding, consider the Olivo maneuvers.  The Jays essentially bought the #53 overall draft pick for $500K plus whatever amount was sent to the Rockies, the first time I've seen that strategy employed.  Given the free agent contracts they eventually signed, it seems that Gregg and Olivo might have had trade value had the Blue Jays exercised their options, but the team either didn't forecast that or just preferred the picks.

Anthopoulos made more traditional trades as well.  The Wells deal was a masterstroke, as the Toronto GM moved his predecessor's unmovable contract, clearing significant payroll space and even netting a useful player down the line in Francisco.  Anthopoulos cashed in on Marcum's fine 2010, netting a top 50 prospect in Lawrie.  He did take on risk in that deal, dealing one of baseball's precious commodities (multiple years of a top starting pitcher) while pinning the success of the trade on one prospect.  The Blue Jays dealt their ace for the second consecutive offseason, a trend that is probably finished.

I liked the Davis pickup, given the scarcity of center fielders.  And while the Villanueva trade is not complete, it doesn't seem that the Jays gave up much for a guy who had an 11.4 K/9 last year.  I'm not sure why the Brewers found Villanueva expendable.   

I'm a fan of the Bautista extension as well.  There's risk in any long-term deal, but if Bautista is now a consistent 30 home run bat, $14MM per free agent year is a fair price.

The Blue Jays will likely become progressively more aggressive about competing in the AL East, starting with the 2012 season.  A playoff berth could be added by MLB, and Toronto's goal is to begin an extended period of contention.  They've got a respectable 2011 club, but this coming offseason could be Anthopoulos' biggest push yet toward winning now. 

Ben Nicholson-Smith contributed to this post.

Giants Sign Doug Mathis

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The Giants signed righty Doug Mathis yesterday, according to the Pacific Coast League's transactions page.  He's already made a start for the Fresno Grizzlies.  The 27-year-old had been released by the Indians last week.

Mathis posted a 5.66 ERA, 5.5 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, and 0.7 HR/9 in 89 Triple-A innings last year, mostly as a starter.  He was worse with the Rangers in 22 1/3 relief innings, allowing seven home runs and 30 hits.

Pirates Sign Dan Meyer

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The Pirates signed left-hander Dan Meyer and assigned him to Triple-A, according to MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch (on Twitter). The Phillies had released him over the weekend.

Meyer appeared in just 13 games for the Marlins last year after posting a 3.09 ERA with 8.6 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in 71 appearances for Florida in 2009. The results weren't there in 2010, when Meyer spent most of the season in the minors and spent time on the disabled list with a calf strain. Meyer walked 12 and struck out four in 9 1/3 innings of big league work, though his minor league numbers (2.93 ERA, 7.0 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 in 46 innings) suggest he's capable of more.

A first round selection of Atlanta's in 2002, Meyer developed into a highly touted prospect. The Braves sent him to Oakland in the Tim Hudson deal and he has since been in the Phillies' and Marlins' organizations. Still just 29, Meyer will provide depth in the minors for the Pirates.

Langosch also confirmed that the Pirates signed Tim Wood, as MLBTR reported last week.

NL West Notes: Bell, Kemp, McCourt

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The latest from the NL West, as Troy Tulowitzki hits his first home run of the season…

  • Padres closer Heath Bell, who has expressed his desire for an extension, says he will stop discussing his contract status in the media, according to Tom Krasovic of Inside the Padres. The Padres had preliminary discussions with Bell about an extension earlier in the spring. If they don't sign him long-term, he'll become a free agent after the season.
  • Matt Kemp is in a different state of mind this year, writes Yahoo's Tim Brown. The talented Dodgers center fielder says he's putting his disappointing 2010 campaign behind him.
  • Dodgers owner Frank McCourt sent representatives to meet with the commissioner's office about preserving the rights to the team, according to Bill Shaikin of the LA Times. McCourt's people proposed a plan that involves a TV deal with Fox that could help stabilize the team. 
  • Jon Heyman of SI.com, who first reported the meeting, says that McCourt needs $200MM to settle his divorce and keep the team.

Orioles Eyeing Rotation Depth

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Baltimore's front office is 'poking around' for No. 5 starter types, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (on Twitter). The undefeated Orioles have allowed just one run in each of their first four games, but now that Brian Matusz is on the 15-day disabled list with an intercostal strain, the team's rotation is thinner than expected.

Jeremy Guthrie, Jake Arrieta, Chris Tillman and Zach Britton have impressed so far and Brad Bergesen will start against the Tigers tomorrow. It's a promising, but inexperienced group, so it's not surprising to see that president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail has some interest in adding depth.

Potentially available starters include Kevin Slowey, free agent Carlos Silva, Jo-Jo Reyes and former Orioles starter turned Braves minor leaguer Rodrigo Lopez. Though there's no indication that the Orioles are interested in those arms, their names could come up in conversation.

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