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Archives for 2011

Epstein ‘On Cusp’ Of Deal With Cubs

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | October 11, 2011 at 8:25pm CDT

8:25pm: ESPN's Karl Ravech hears that the compensation would involve prospects and/or cash, but no MLB players. Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe hears that the Red Sox wouldn't saddle the Cubs with bad contracts in the proposed arrangement and notes that Epstein remains undecided about the possible change (Twitter links).

8:05pm: Epstein would need Boston's approval to bring employees with him to Chicago, according to ESPN.com's Buster Olney (on Twitter). Carrie Muskat of MLB.com hears that the Cubs made an offer and Epstein is now deciding whether to leave the Red Sox (Twitter link).

7:20pm: Epstein's nearing a deal with the Cubs, Sean McAdam of CSNNE.com confirms. The deal isn't done yet, as some issues other than compensation have to be resolved. Meanwhile, Yahoo's Tim Brown hears that Red Sox ownership is making a play to keep Epstein, but won't ask him to continue in a job he doesn't want (Twitter link).

5:44pm: Boston GM Theo Epstein is "on the cusp" of leaving the Red Sox for a job with the Cubs, according to Steve Buckley of the Boston Herald. Red Sox ownership still hopes to retain Epstein and if he is to leave, Boston will demand "something real" as compensation.

Epstein's proposed deal with the Cubs would include more power than he has in Boston, according to Buckley. The teams could make an announcement within a day or two and the situation will be "resolved very soon."

When Cubs chairman Tom Ricketts outlined his ideal GM candidate after firing Jim Hendry, he said he wanted someone with a commitment to player development and a strong analytical background who came from a background of success. Epstein, who became Boston's GM in 2002, certainly qualifies.

The Red Sox won two World Series titles under Epstein (2004, 2007) and have made six playoff appearances since 2003. They missed the postseason for the second consecutive year in 2011 after a September slide that cost manager Terry Francona his job. Our Transaction Tracker has every one of Epstein's moves as GM. Check out Tim Dierkes' look ahead to the Cubs' offseason for a preview of Epstein's first winter in the Windy City.

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Boston Red Sox Chicago Cubs Theo Epstein

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Orioles Considering Several GM Candidates

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | October 11, 2011 at 5:38pm CDT

The Orioles have assembled a list of six candidates to be their next general manager, according to ESPN.com's Buster Olney. Josh Byrnes of the Padres, Gerry Hunsicker of the Rays, J.P. Ricciardi of the Mets, Thad Levine of the Rangers, Tony LaCava of the Blue Jays and Dan Jennings of the Marlins are considered possible successors to president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail, according to Olney.

The Orioles are forming a panel to interview the candidates, Olney writes. Others may enter the mix for the position, which MacPhail announced he will not be returning to. 

Manager Buck Showalter and owner Peter Angelos are expected to meet tomorrow to discuss candidates, according to Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun (Twitter link). Connolly notes that the Orioles haven't asked for permission to interview anyone at this point and suggests that the club won't consider more than five candidates.

Hunsicker recently told Murray Chass that he'll listen if a team expresses interest in him as a GM, but he doesn't sound eager to leave the Rays. "This is a unique situation," he said. "This means a whole lot more to me than running a baseball team under less than ideal circumstances.” Ricciardi told Brian Costa of the Wall Street Journal that he'd listen if the Orioles contact him (Twitter link).

Connolly suggests former Reds GM Wayne Krivsky, Yankees scouting director Damon Oppenheimer, Phillies assistant GM Scott Proefrock and Rangers senior director of player development Scott Servais are also possible candidates. For more information on GM Candidates in MLB, check out our list.

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Baltimore Orioles

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Yankees Notes: Cashman, Sabathia, Swisher

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | October 11, 2011 at 4:24pm CDT

There's a 100% chance GM Brian Cashman signs a new contract with the Yankees before long, based on what Joel Sherman of the New York Post is hearing (Twitter link). However, many questions about the 2012 Yankees persist. Here's a look ahead at some of the team's upcoming decisions…

  • The Yankees haven't had any contract talks with Cashman at this point, according to Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News. Feinsand hasn't heard from anyone who thinks the sides will fail to reach a deal.
  • C.C. Sabathia told Mark Hale of the New York Post that baseball is a business, while acknowledging that it would be difficult to leave New York. The left-hander will likely opt out of the four years and $92MM remaining on his seven-year, $161MM deal. Cashman says the Yankees haven't started talking extension with Sabathia.
  • Manager Joe Girardi says he doesn't want to imagine his rotation without Sabathia, according to Feinsand (all Twitter links). Girardi says he's sure the Yankees will look to add top-of-the-rotation pitching even if Sabathia returns.
  • Girardi says he expects Alex Rodriguez to start at third, rather than DH, in 2012, according to Feinsand.
  • Sherman knows that it'd be easiest for the Yankees to pick up Nick Swisher's $10.25MM option and work Jesus Montero into the lineup, but he makes the case that Carlos Beltran is in many ways preferable to Swisher. It will cost more than $10.25MM to sign Beltran, who could obtain a three-year deal this winter.
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New York Yankees Alex Rodriguez Brian Cashman C.C. Sabathia Nick Swisher

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Raul Valdes, Scott Proctor Elect Free Agency

By Tim Dierkes | October 11, 2011 at 2:20pm CDT

Relievers Raul Valdes and Scott Proctor have elected free agency, the Yankees announced today (Bryan Hoch of MLB.com tweeted the news).  Having lost Aaron Laffey as well, the Yankees' 40-man roster now stands at 37.

Valdes, a 33-year-old southpaw, joined the Yankees on an August waiver claim from the Cardinals after being designated for assignment.  Valdes tossed 12 big league innings overall and another 63 2/3 in the minors.   He's had some success against lefties.

Proctor, a 34-year-old right-hander, returned to the Yankees for eight games in September after spending most of the season with the Braves.  He began his career with the Yankees, suiting up in pinstripes from 2004-07.  In 40 1/3 innings for Atlanta and New York this year, Proctor posted a 7.14 ERA with more walks (31) than strikeouts (29).

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New York Yankees Transactions Raul Valdes Scott Proctor

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Royals Claim Laffey, Designate Chavez

By Tim Dierkes | October 11, 2011 at 2:13pm CDT

The Royals announced today they've claimed lefty Aaron Laffey off outright waivers from the Yankees and designated reliever Jesse Chavez to create a 40-man roster spot.

Laffey, 26, posted a 3.88 ERA, 5.1 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1.18 HR/9, and 48.1% groundball rate in 53 1/3 innings for the Mariners and Yankees this year.  He wasn't any better against left-handed hitters.  Earlier today, Joe Pawlikowski of River Ave. Blues wrote that Laffey was an expected victim of the Yankees' upcoming 40-man roster crunch.

Chavez, 28, had joined the Royals at last year's trade deadline in the Rick Ankiel/Kyle Farnsworth deal.  He struggled mightily in the Majors this year but had a 3.75 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, and 0.9 HR/9 in 57 2/3 Triple-A innings.  Chavez averaged 94.5 miles per hour on his fastball the last few years, but that dropped a full two miles per hour this year in the Majors.

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Kansas City Royals New York Yankees Transactions Aaron Laffey Jesse Chavez

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Arbitration Eligibles: San Francisco Giants

By Tim Dierkes | October 11, 2011 at 2:12pm CDT

The Giants are next in our arbitration eligibles series.

  • First time: Pablo Sandoval, Sergio Romo, Nate Schierholtz, Eli Whiteside, Emmanuel Burriss
  • Second time: Andres Torres, Santiago Casilla
  • Third time: Tim Lincecum, Jonathan Sanchez, Jeff Keppinger, Ramon Ramirez, Mike Fontenot, Ryan Vogelsong     

With 13 arbitration eligible players, the Giants are tied with the Padres for having the biggest group we've reviewed so far.  The difference?  Lincecum projects to earn about as much as all 13 arbitration eligible Padres combined.

Lincecum is primed for a historic arbitration case, as I explained in detail in May.  At that time, one agent told me, "This negotiation will transcend arbitration and will be a mini free agency discussion."  The $19MM figure mentioned by agents at the time holds up under Matt Swartz's arbitration projection system, which predicts $19.2MM assuming Lincecum is working from a $14.1MM base in 2011.  No matter what the exact number, Lincecum will set an arbitration record unless he signs a multiyear deal.  He's open to another two-year contract, and I think something like $35MM would be a good deal for the club.  Keep in mind that Lincecum will otherwise be arbitration eligible one last time for 2013.

Giants GM Brian Sabean admitted to reporters in September that the team will probably not bring all 13 arbitration eligible players back.  Sanchez, with a projected $5.2MM salary, would seem a prime non-tender candidate.  However, Sabean suggested Sanchez would be in the rotation mix next year.  Sabean said Keppinger "might be a luxury item" for next year, since Freddy Sanchez is under contract.  At a projected $2.7MM, I think the Giants will be able to make a trade if they feel Sanchez is ready.

I think Torres at a projected $2.5MM is a candidate to be non-tendered.  Fontenot ($1.3MM), Whiteside ($700K), and Burriss ($600K) are on the bubble as well.  That leaves Sandoval ($3.2MM), Vogelsong ($2.5MM), Ramirez ($2.3MM), Casilla ($1.9MM), Romo ($1.3MM), and Schierholtz ($1.2MM) as players you can expect back in 2012.   

If Torres, Fontenot, Burriss, and Whiteside are non-tendered, the remaining nine could cost the Giants an estimated $39.5MM.  Sabean expects a $124MM payroll.  The team owes $72.433MM to players under contract, if Jeremy Affeldt's buyout is excluded but Aaron Rowand's salary is included.  Add the arbitration group and we're up at $112MM, $12MM shy of Sabean's payroll figure, before minimum salary players are considered.  The Giants expect to re-sign Affeldt, and perhaps a center fielder/leadoff man.  That might be all they can afford, but as Sabean indicated, the team's flexibility will hinge on how much money they allocate toward retaining their top pitchers.

Matt Swartz contributed to this post.

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Arbitration Eligibles San Francisco Giants

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Outrighted: Jeremy Accardo

By Tim Dierkes | October 11, 2011 at 12:32pm CDT

The latest players to be outrighted to Triple-A…

  • Reliever Jeremy Accardo cleared waivers and was outrighted to Triple-A Norfolk, the Orioles announced.  The move drops the team's 40-man roster count to 39.  MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith noted Accardo as a non-tender candidate earlier this morning, so it's no surprise he was removed from the 40-man today.  Accardo, 29, posted a 5.73 ERA, 5.5 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, 1.19 HR/9, and 37.4% groundball rate in 37 2/3 innings for the Orioles this year.  He was designated for assignment in June and accepted a Triple-A assignment, but was re-added to the 40-man in September.
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Baltimore Orioles Transactions Jeremy Accardo

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Phillies Aim To Sign Free Agent Closer

By Tim Dierkes | October 11, 2011 at 12:30pm CDT

Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. talked to reporters today at Citizens Bank Park, and David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News has the transcript.  Highlights:

  • If the Phillies don't re-sign closer Ryan Madson, Amaro will go outside the organization for a replacement, he told reporters including MLB.com's Todd Zolecki today.  Madson, a Scott Boras client, could be a tough sign.  Amaro said he talked to Madson yesterday, and the righty is excited about free agency.  The Phillies can at least get a couple of draft picks as a consolation prize.  Heath Bell, Jonathan Papelbon, Jonathan Broxton, Matt Capps, Francisco Cordero, Frank Francisco, Joe Nathan, and Francisco Rodriguez are also on the free agent market.
  • Amaro said he'd like Domonic Brown to spend another full season in Triple-A (Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer with the tweet).  Brown, one of the game's top prospects prior to the season, hit .245/.333/.391 in 210 plate appearances in the Majors this year.  Most of Brown's starts came prior to the team's acquisition of Hunter Pence.  Amaro says Brown has some work to do in left field, a position that will be an "open competition" for the 2012 Phillies.
  • Amaro does not think Ryan Howard's torn Achilles tendon will impact the team's offseason moves.
  • Free agent signings are more likely than trades.
  • The Phillies are still discussing Roy Oswalt's $16MM option internally.  Amaro says that "might be a tough one."  The Phillies' front office has also internally discussed extending Cole Hamels.
  • The Phillies' payroll is expected to be similar to this year's.
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Philadelphia Phillies Cole Hamels Domonic Brown Roy Oswalt Ryan Madson

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Arbitration Eligibles: Los Angeles Dodgers

By Tim Dierkes | October 11, 2011 at 12:19pm CDT

The Dodgers are next in our arbitration eligibles series.

  • First time: Clayton Kershaw
  • Second time: Tony Gwynn Jr.
  • Third time: Matt Kemp, James Loney, Hong-Chih Kuo
  • Fourth time: Andre Ethier

Should Kershaw win the Cy Young award, our model projects a record-shattering first-time pitcher salary of $8.4MM.  Tim Lincecum had two Cy Youngs under his belt when he submitted for $13MM against the Giants' $8MM figure in February of 2010.  We know Lincecum would have gotten one of those two figures had he not signed an extension.  Kershaw's agents, the Hendricks brothers, could position their client as Lincecum Lite.  Kershaw won't have the two Cys but he will have almost 120 more innings, seven more wins, and pretty much the same ERA Lincecum did.

Kemp could bring an MVP award or at least a lot of votes to the arbitration table.  Matt Swartz's work for MLBTR has shown that MVP and Cy Young awards boost salary more for first-time arbitration eligibles, so Kemp's huge payday may come mostly from his stellar stats.  The model projects a $16.3MM salary for Kemp, though admittedly a $9.35MM raise might be a tough sell for his agent Dave Stewart.  Matt explained to me, "There's just no one in recent history who has the kind of AVG/SB combined with the HR/RBI like Kemp, so he’s basically getting a Prince Fielder/Ryan Howard raise and a B.J. Upton/Corey Patterson raise at the same time."  Matt notes that the Kemp and Kershaw projections have the widest error bars, because there is so little precedent for them.

Ethier will be well-paid as well; he projects at $10.7MM.  That represents a pretty small raise from the last year of his two-year deal, as Ethier was lacking in counting stats this year.  A few days ago, Dodgers GM Ned Colletti told ESPN's Jim Bowden he's not inclined to trade Ethier.  Colletti said in September he'd love to have Loney back; we think the first baseman could get $6.5MM in arbitration.  Kuo, a non-tender candidate, projects at a salary reduction to about $2.5MM.  Gwynn is on the bubble as well; he could make $1.1MM in arbitration.

If all six arbitration eligible Dodgers are retained, the total could reach a staggering $45MM.  But if Loney, Kuo, and Gwynn are deemed too expensive at arbitration prices, that'd trim about $10MM.  Cot's Baseball Contracts shows contractual commitments totaling $46.2MM for 2012, including $11.5MM for Manny Ramirez and Andruw Jones.  Even the high-end arbitration estimate puts the Dodgers around $90MM before accounting for minimum salary players, and that's $30MM below the 2011 Opening Day payroll.  Further savings could be found through trades or non-tenders, or reduced salaries in long-term deals for Kershaw and/or Kemp.  The team's ownership turmoil figures to result in a reduced payroll, but Colletti seems to think he can afford some significant free agents.

Matt Swartz contributed to this post.

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Arbitration Eligibles Los Angeles Dodgers

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Rollins On Free Agency

By Tim Dierkes | October 11, 2011 at 11:32am CDT

Phillies shortstop and impending free agent Jimmy Rollins met with the media at Citizens Bank Park today.  Rollins' quotes will be easier to parse once a full transcript is available, but in the meantime here are a few nuggets from the team's beat writers.

  • Rollins reiterated that he's seeking a five-year deal, tweets MLB.com's Todd Zolecki.  The shortstop said he's open to a fifth-year option, however.  Zolecki indicates that it'd have to be Rollins' option, so perhaps a player or vesting one.  Rollins turns 33 next month.  He talked about his five-year goal to SI's Jon Heyman on September 28th.
  • Rollins says there's a "good chance" a deal with the Phillies happens, tweets Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer.  Zolecki has Rollins saying he can't picture wearing another uniform, but noted that the shortstop also said it's about years and money.
  • GM Ruben Amaro Jr. said he plans to keep talks with Rollins private.  Asked what losing Rollins would mean, Amaro said, "I will say that it will be a huge blow for us, but not insurmountable."  Amaro said some in the organization feel Freddy Galvis is ready to play shortstop every day, and some do not, so he's not sure whether they'd go outside the organization for a replacement.
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