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Arbitration Eligibles: Chicago Cubs

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The Cubs are next in our arbitration eligibles series.

Hill is the most likely non-tender in this group.  However, he'd only get a mild raise to $850K, and it's quite possible the Cubs keep him around due to defense, familiarity with the pitching staff, and other intangibles.  

Wells ($2.2MM), Soto ($4MM), and Baker ($1.4MM) had disappointing seasons, but should be part of the 2012 club.  DeWitt showed enough promise to be worth $1.2MM.  Garza represents the Cubs' headline arbitration case, and we project $8.7MM for him.  Jeremy Guthrie and John Danks will be current comparables for Garza.  There is not much recent precedent for a pitcher with this type of track record to make it to his third arbitration year.

If the Cubs retain all six of their arbitration eligibles, we project $18.4MM in total salary.  Assuming Ryan Dempster exercises his player option and Aramis Ramirez doesn't get a new contract prior to his option decision, the Cubs have around $91MM in 2012 commitments before accounting for minimum salary players.  If payroll remains in the $134MM range, the Cubs would have around $40MM to spend in 2012 salaries.

Matt Swartz contributed to this post.

Quick Hits: Giants, Red Sox, Smith, Dodgers, Orioles

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Here are some items from around baseball to peruse after a great night of October baseball..

  • Giants GM Brian Sabean said that the club's paryoll in 2012 will be around $125MM but he may ask for more money based on a specific player they are targeting, writes Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle.  Schulman believes that if Sabean wants to re-sign Carlos Beltran and needs more payroll room to do it, ownership will be willing to listen.
  • Former Red Sox manager Terry Francona plans to manage next season if offered the opportunity, a source close to Francona told ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney.
  • Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated (via Twitter) suggests that Torey Lovullo is a name to consider for the Red Sox managerial vacancy.  Lovullo managed Boston's Triple-A affiliate in 2010 and currently serves as the first base coach of the Blue Jays.
  • There's been a great deal of trade talk surrounding the Rockies' Seth Smith lately but the outfielder says that he's trying not to think about it too much, writes Jim Amstrong of The Denver Post.  If Colorado were to sign an everyday left fielder like Michael Cuddyer, Smith could be flipped for pitching.
  • The Dodgers have asked the judge in their bankruptcy case to reconsider limits he placed on their arguments, write Bill Shaikin and Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times.  The team's attorneys want to present Bud Selig's dealings with other teams involving similar transactions.
  • Everybody is still waiting for both shoes to drop in the Orioles front office, writes Peter Schmuck of The Baltimore Sun.
Everybody is still waiting for both shoes to drop in the Orioles front office, where the respective status of president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail and manager Buck Showalter remain both intertwined and apparently undecided.

NL East Notes: Johnson, Phillies, Nationals, Flores

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Let's take a look at a few items out of the NL East..

  • There's no question in the mind of MLB.com's Bill Ladson that Davey Johnson will be back as manager of the Nationals in 2012 as players and people in the front office have told said that they want Johnson back in the same role.  Ladson also writes that Carlos Beltran is not a fit for the Nats and believes that he should get no more than a one-year deal due to his injury history.
  • The Red Sox will consider Phillies coach Pete Mackanin as a managerial candidate, sources tell Buster Olney of ESPN.com (via Twitter).
  • Jorge Arangure Jr. of ESPN The Magazine spoke with Ruben Amaro Jr. and Ed Wade about how Amaro came to join the Phillies as assistant GM.  The former outfielder had zero experience between going from the field to the front office.  
  • Nationals catcher Jesus Flores sounds like a player who may want to continue his career elsewhere, writes Adam Kilgore of The Washington Post.  Kilgore says that Flores doesn't seem bitter or angry about his lack of playing time, but he doesn't sound content.

AL West Notes: Angels, DiSarcina, Mariners

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Earlier today, we learned that the Angels dismissed assistant GM Ken Forsch and special assistant Gary Sutherland.  This comes after the Halos parted ways with GM Tony Reagins on Friday.  Here are some notes on their GM search and other items out of the American League West..

  • Today's dismissals make the possibility seem unlikely, but if the Angels decide to fill their GM vacancy from within, two candidates stand out above all the rest, writes Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times.  Gary DiSarcina, the former shortstop who is a special assistant to the GM, and Tory Hernandez, the team's manager of baseball operations, would have the best crack at the job.  Meanwhile, Oakland assistant GM David Forst and Chicago White Sox assistant GM Rick Hahn are believed to be very interested in the position.
  • The Halos are fighting perception that team is run in total by manager Mike Scioscia, tweets Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated.  A competing GM remarked to Heyman that "[Scioscia is] the GM" of the club.
  • Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter) echoed similar sentiments, wondering aloud if the Angels will hire an actual GM or another figurehead for the position.
  • The Mariners used this past season as a developmental year for their young players, but GM Jack Zduriencik is open to bringing in key veterans to bolster that group next season, writes Greg Johns of MLB.com.  Of course, Zduriencik expects a major boost from within with a healthy return of Franklin Gutierrez and a stronger year from Justin Smoak.

GM/Manager Notes: Cubs, Angels, Red Sox, Orioles

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The Cubs and Angels officially have general manager vacancies and, depending on what Buck Showalter decides to do, the Orioles could be looking for a GM, too. Throw in the uncertainty surrounding Theo Epstein's future and many expiring contracts for managers and there’s the possibility for a lot of leadership changes in the next month or so. Here are the details from around MLB… 

  • Cubs Chairman Tom Ricketts declined to address rumors that Red Sox GM Theo Epstein may be interested in coming to Chicago, writes Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune.
  • The Angels dismissed assistant GM Ken Forsch and special assistant Gary Sutherland, according to Mike DiGiovanna of the LA Times. They dismissed GM Tony Reagins on Friday.
  • ESPN.com's Buster Olney hears that the Red Sox have had informal conversations about what they'll do if Epstein is no longer their GM (Twitter link).
  • The Red Sox aren’t targeting Bobby Valentine or Joe Torre for their managerial opening, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com. It appears that Epstein is considering two candidates without MLB managerial experience, according to Heyman.
  • People who know Epstein tell Heyman that the GM doesn’t expect to work for the Red Sox for life. It’s possible that Red Sox ownership will add a couple years to Epstein’s contract (it expires after 2012) or change his title.
  • Cubs chairman Tom Ricketts likes the Red Sox organization, not just Epstein, according to Scott Miller of CBSSports.com (on Twitter). That could mean the Cubs are interested in assistant GM Ben Cherington.
  • The Red Sox would surely demand and obtain compensation if the Cubs hire Epstein, so Dave Cameron of FanGraphs wonders how much he is worth. Cameron isn't sure that spending big on recognizable executives makes sense, since there's a steady supply of qualified candidates who are available more cheaply.
  • Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports says it's time for the Red Sox to extend Epstein and that it would be a mistake on their part to let him go.
  • The Cubs' shortlist includes Cherington, White Sox assistant GM Rick Hahn and Braves director of professional scouting John Coppolella, according to Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun. 
  • Connolly explains that he expects the Orioles to hire someone from outside of the organization with a background in scouting and/or player development if Showalter continues managing the team.
  • Though GM John Mozeliak says he has a “very good” relationship with manager Tony La Russa, Heyman hears that some top Cardinals people don’t believe the skipper is worth his salary of $5MM or so.
  • Despite rumors connecting him to the White Sox, La Russa says he’s not going to manage another team, according to Heyman.
  • The Angels are meeting to start forming their list of GM candidates today and they seem likely to go outside of the organization for the position, Heyman writes.
  • Don't forget to check out our list of GM Candidates.

White Sox Notes: Quentin, Reed, Sale

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The White Sox will select 13th in next year's draft after finishing the 2011 season with a 79-83 record. Here's the latest as they begin an offseason that will include their first managerial search since the 2003 season ended…

  • GM Kenny Williams told Peter Gammons of MLB Network that the White Sox are "going to let the kids play" next season (Twitter link). Gammons expects the White Sox to be younger in 2012.
  • Doug Padilla of ESPNChicago.com wonders if Williams' comments signals that the White Sox would trade Carlos Quentin in the right deal. They could get by without Quentin if they play Brent Morel at third, Dayan Viciedo in right and Adam Dunn at DH.
  • Addison Reed, the 22-year-old right-hander who posted a 12K/1BB ratio in six relief appearances this year, could begin the 2012 season in the Major League bullpen, according to Padilla.
  • Williams told MLB.com's Scott Merkin that Chris Sale will "be given every opportunity in the rotation" next year (Twitter link).

Poll: Best In-Season Trade By A Playoff Team

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The Yankees and Rays combined to make one minor trade this season, but the other six playoff teams were active on the trade market in 2011. I recapped each team's in-season trades last week; here are some highlights (production with new team in parentheses):

Now that you've considered the trades, it's time to vote. 

MLB’s Newest $100MM Players: One Year In

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Six players signed deals worth $100MM or more last offseason and they've now completed one year since finalizing their respective deals. Here's a look at how baseball's newest $100MM players fared in 2011 (in order of contract value):

  • Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies, ten-year, $157.75MM extension – This deal, which was somewhat unexpected last offseason, is going as well as the Rockies could hope. Tulowitzki put together another tremendous season: .302/.372/.544 with 30 home runs at shortstop.
  • Adrian Gonzalez, Red Sox, seven-year, $154MM extension - Gonzalez led the American League in hits and nearly won the batting title in his return to the Junior Circuit. He posted a .338/.410/.548 line and hit 27 homers on his way to an MVP-caliber season. His seven-year extension officially kicks in next season, though.
  • Carl Crawford, Red Sox, seven-year, $142MM contract - Crawford posted a sub-.300 on-base percentage, saw his stolen base total drop by 29 and hit fewer home runs, triples and doubles than he did during his final season in Tampa Bay. The Red Sox still owe him $128MM, so they have to find a way to turn their left fielder's career around.
  • Jayson Werth, Nationals, seven-year, $126MM contract – Though Werth doesn't like the idea that 2011 was a lost season for him and the Nationals, there's no denying that his numbers fell off. He had a .232/.330/.389 line with 20 homers and 19 stolen bases.
  • Cliff Lee, Phillies, five-year, $120MM contract – We knew Lee was good, but it would not have been fair to expect this kind of year: he posted a 2.40 ERA with 9.2 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9 in 232 2/3 innings.
  • Ryan Braun, Brewers, five-year, $105MM extension - Braun could win the MVP after leading the league in slugging percentage (.597) and OPS (.994). He hit 33 homers and stole 33 bases, posted a career-high .397 on-base percentage and made his fourth consecutive All-Star team.

Crawford and Werth were sources of excitement for their respective teams when they signed free agent contracts and the outfielders have since become sources of concern. The other position players – Tulowitzki, Gonzalez and Braun – have turned in MVP-caliber seasons, while Lee should be a top-three finisher in this year's NL Cy Young balloting.

Wren Talks Prado, Chipper, Bourn

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The Braves narrowly missed the playoffs last week, losing to the Phillies in the final game of the regular season as the Cardinals surged past them into the Division Series. Atlanta GM Frank Wren looked ahead to the offseason in a Q&A with reporters, including Carroll Rogers of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. The details:

  • There’s a strong likelihood that Martin Prado will return to left field in 2012. The Braves haven’t discussed moving Prado to another position.
  • The Braves know that Chipper Jones’ knee won’t permit him to play seven days in a row, so they’ll be on the lookout for utility help this offseason. They have a $1.5MM option for Eric Hinske in 2012 ($100K buyout).
  • Wren isn’t looking for bullpen depth, since he was pleased with the late-season results from Cristhian Martinez and Anthony Varvaro.
  • The Braves aren’t certain whether Kris Medlen will start or relieve in 2012.
  • Wren is open to the idea of extending Michael Bourn. They “like the infusion of speed” and could discuss a mutliyear deal instead of going through the arbitration process. Bourn, who is scheduled to hit free agency after 2012, will earn a raise from $4.4MM next year.

Explaining Non-Tenders

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Russell Martin, Alfredo Aceves and Joel Peralta were all non-tendered last offseason. One year later, we’re well on our way to welcoming another class of non-tenders to the club. It can be a confusing kind of transaction, so here’s an explanation of what exactly a non-tender is.

To tender a player a contract is to offer a contract, but non-tenders refer to a specific kind of offer: offers of arbitration. Rules and precedent shape the kind of salary a player can expect through arbitration, so players under team control usually get raises through the process. 

For example, Jacoby Ellsbury isn’t eligible for free agency yet, but he and agent Scott Boras have some say in his future earnings. If the Red Sox offered Ellsbury $3MM in arbitration this offseason, Boras and Ellsbury could counter with a $10MM submission and win. Arbitration can be expensive for teams, since a player’s salary depends on his previous earnings and comparable players.

Players generally earn $400K or so for their first few major league seasons, so they’re usually relatively cheap in their first arbitration seasons. But players entering their second, third or (for super twos) fourth arbitration seasons stand to make more money if they’re tendered an offer. 

If an arbitration eligible player hasn’t performed well and projects to earn a considerable amount, his team will likely consider a non-tender to save money and preserve roster flexibility. That means they have turned down the option to negotiate a contract with that player through arbitration, but it doesn’t mean the player’s going to sign elsewhere.

Left-handers Hideki Okajima and Andrew Miller both re-signed with the Red Sox after Boston non-tendered them last winter. The Red Sox signed the pair of pitchers for less guaranteed money, but only after they risked losing them to rival teams. (After a player is non-tendered he hits free agency and can sign anywhere.)

It’s complicated, but here’s what you need to know: teams non-tender players when they would rather risk losing them to another team than go through the potentially expensive arbitration process.

MLBTR first published a modified version of this post by Ben Nicholson-Smith in September 2010.

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