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Make Or Break Year: What Happened?

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Before the season, MLBTR writers identified 13 players who were set for 'make or break' years. These players had experienced ups and downs in their respective careers and were positioned to re-establish themselves as difference makers at the Major League level and set themselves up for success in free agency.

We checked in on the players at the quarter pole of the campaign and again at its midway point. Let's do it again now that the regular season's over (all links go to the MLBTR posts):

Players whose seasons met or exceeded preseason expectations:

  • Aramis Ramirez - Ramirez had a strong season, hitting 26 homers and posting a .306/.361/.510 line as the Cubs' everyday third baseman.
  • Edwin Jackson - Jackson, a free agent after the season, completed 199 2/3 innings with a 3.79 ERA, 6.7 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a 43.8% ground ball rate.
  • Bobby Abreu - Though Abreu's power dropped off, he managed a .353 on-base percentage and 21 steals. His 2012 option vested in July, so he should be back in Los Angeles for a fourth season with the Angels.
  • Carlos Beltran - A highly-coveted midsummer trade target, Beltran spent time on the DL with a strained right hand and wrist in August. His season line was .300/.385/.525, so agent Scott Boras will likely receive multiyear offers for the switch-hitter.
  • Jeff Francis - Francis pitched 183 innings with a 4.82 ERA, 4.5 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9. He wasn't spectacular, but he made his starts, quieting questions about the condition of his left shoulder.

Players who had disappointing seasons due to injury or poor performance:

  • Scott Kazmir - Kazmir spent time on the DL, made one appearance for the Angels and posted a 17.02 ERA with more walks than strikeouts at Triple-A before getting released. The 2011 season could not have gone much worse for the former first rounder.
  • Nate McLouth - McLouth's .228/.344/.333 line is better than it was last year and features a respectable on-base percentage, but he missed the second half with oblique and abdominal injuries.
  • Jonathan Broxton - It was a lost season for Broxton, who recently had surgery to remove loose bodies in his right elbow and is looking at an incentive-based one-year deal in free agency.
  • Grady Sizemore - Sizemore got off to a hot start, but finished the season with a .224/.285/.422 line. Knee and abdominal issues limited him to 71 games and there's no guarantee that the Indians will pick up his $9MM option for 2012.
  • Joel Zumaya - Zumaya didn't pitch in a Major League game after undergoing elbow surgery in March.
  • Ryan Doumit - A sprained left ankle limited the 30-year-old to 77 games. When healthy, he posted a .303/.353/.477 line, but it doesn't appear likely that the Pirates will pick up his $7.25MM option.
  • Casey Blake - Blake hit .252/.342/.371 in 239 plate appearances and spent considerable time on the DL with a cervical strain. He had surgery in September and the Dodgers will decline his $6MM option for 2012.
  • Matt Capps - Capps saw his strikeout rate (4.7 K/9), ground ball rate (41.6%), average fastball velocity (92.9 mph) and innings total (65 2/3) drop this year, while his ERA rose nearly two runs to 4.25. At least he stayed healthy, unlike many on this list.

Arbitration Eligibles: Washington Nationals

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The Nationals are next in our arbitration eligibles series.

Slaten battled a sore elbow this year, tossing only 16 1/3 innings in the Majors.  At $900K he'd be cheap to retain, but he is a candidate to be non-tendered.  Flores' shoulder injury knocked him down the Nationals' catching depth chart, and they could look to trade him before the December 12th non-tender deadline.  We project a salary of around $800K, so some team will likely take a chance if the Nationals don't.  Gorzelanny cleared waivers in August, indicating no team found him a good value at a $2.1MM salary this year.  Next year it'd be around $2.8MM through arbitration.  His strikeout and walk rates in 15 starts this year were solid, though his suitors may wait out the Nats to see if they tender him a contract.

Lannan ($4.8MM), Morse ($3.7MM), Zimmermann ($1.8MM), and Clippard ($1.7MM) all project to be relatively affordable and part of the 2012 Nationals.  The four players project to earn a total of $12MM next year.

Including that $12MM, the Nationals have about $57MM in 2012 commitments before accounting for minimum salary players.  Holding payroll steady at this year's $68MM wouldn't leave much flexibility, but the Nats are capable of going beyond that number in their offseason quest to add a starting pitcher and an outfielder. 

Red Sox Rumors: Epstein, Cherington, Managerial Candidates

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The Red Sox appear headed for an interesting offseason; here's the latest.

  • A Major League source close to Theo Epstein told ESPN's Gordon Edes it's "50-50" the Red Sox GM would leave for the right situation.  Edes hears Epstein "believes in honoring a contract that has a year remaining," yet owner John Henry "would not stand in the way if Epstein wanted to pursue another opportunity."  Edes feels that while giving Epstein a club president title would be a promotion, the business aspect of that role has never held appeal for him.  If Epstein leaves, Edes has a source who would be very surprised if current assistant GM Ben Cherington didn't replace him.
  • Edes believes that if the Cubs or Angels intend to make a move for Epstein, it will come as early as this week.  The Red Sox "will likely ask for stiff compensation if they permit Epstein to leave for the Cubs, though an extension is still possible," tweets Bob Nightengale of USA Today.  Sources are split on whether Angels owner Arte Moreno wants Epstein, writes Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald.
  • Edes says the Red Sox have internally discussed Sandy Alomar Jr., Dave Martinez, Pete Mackanin, Ryne Sandberg, and Tony La Russa as candidates to replace Terry Francona as manager.  It is tricky to have Epstein overseeing this process given his uncertainty, but Cherington is involved as well.
  • In a must-read article, WEEI's Rob Bradford addresses the future of each Red Sox position player.

Offseason Outlook: Houston Astros

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Expect a quiet offseason for the Astros, who conducted their fire sale in July.  Intrigue may come from possible ownership, GM, and league changes.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Carlos Lee, LF/1B: $18.5MM through 2012, ten-and-five rights
  • Wandy Rodriguez, SP: $25.5MM through 2013, 2014 club option becomes player option upon trade
  • Brett Myers, SP: $14MM through 2012 unless '13 option vests
  • Brandon Lyon, RP: $5.5MM through 2012 

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Free Agents

As the worst team in baseball, the 2012 Astros seem lacking just about everywhere. Things may get worse before they get better.  Second baseman Jose Altuve, starting pitchers Bud Norris and Jordan Lyles, and closer Mark Melancon are bright spots who should be around for a while.  Versatile 27-year-old Matt Downs had a nice second half in 2011.  However, there may not be many reasons to watch this team in 2012.

The Astros could have over $20MM to work with for the 2012 season if they hold payroll steady, as our arbitration eligibles post shows.  There's no need to spend the entire surplus on free agents for a team going nowhere.  I'd tinker with the bullpen by bringing in a few upside relievers on one-year deals with an eye on flipping them midseason.  Failing that, the 'Stros could at least hope to snag a supplemental pick or two after the season.

Every team needs veterans, but the four the Astros have under contract are somewhat expensive.  Rodriguez may be the only one with trade value, but with a potential $36MM owed over 2012-14, the Astros wouldn't get elite prospects in return.  There has to be a middle ground between simply dumping the contract, which the Astros decided against when the Rockies claimed him in August, and making outlandish player demands.  If Wandy is dealt, the Astros could reinvest in a more affordable veteran starter.

Jim Crane hasn't yet been approved as the next owner of the Astros and his group will have the option to opt out of purchasing the team from Drayton McLane on November 30th.  If MLB resolves its questions about past charges against two of Crane's companies, the remaining hurdle would be convincing the new owner to join the AL West.  The Angels, A's, Mariners, and Rangers would welcome the Astros, who appear several years away from contention.  Should Crane decide GM Ed Wade is not the man to continue rebuilding efforts, the goal becomes finding a patient executive with great scouting acumen.  For the Astros' sake, hopefully hard slotting is not part of the next collective bargaining agreement.

East Notes: Orioles, Rays, Rollins, Lee, Zambrano

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Some links pertaining to baseball's Eastern divisions for your Sunday evening reading:

  • Peter Schmuck of the Baltimore Sun wonders if the reason we've yet to hear anything regarding Thursday's summit involving Orioles owner Peter Angelos and president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail is because Angelos has convinced MacPhail to stay with the club in an advisory capacity. MacPhail will give up his current title, but Schmuck believes Angelos would give him any title he desired short of co-owner to keep him around.
  • Steve Melewski of MASNsports believes Buck Showalter should remain the manager of the Orioles, not take over the position of GM. That said however, Showalter needs to work closely with the new GM to honestly evaluate the organization on all levels to turn the franchise around.
  • Rays manager Joe Maddon endorses his bench coach Davey Martinez wholeheartedly for the White Sox managerial opening, and told Dave van Dyck of the Chicago Tribune that he'd "do somersaults" if Martinez got the job, despite how difficult he'd be to replace.
  • It's probably implied by the five-year deal he's seeking, but Jimmy Rollins won't be offering the Phillies a hometown discount, according to this MLB.com report from Todd Zolecki, Brian McTaggart, and Nate Mink.
  • Tyler Kepner of the New York Times writes that Cliff Lee is one of the most popular athletes in recent Philadelphia history, and spoke with GM Ruben Amaro Jr. and the $120MM man himself about his decision to return to the Phillies last offseason.
  • The Miami Sun Sentinel's Juan C. Rodriguez questions whether pitching for Ozzie Guillen and the Marlins and getting away from Chicago would make Carlos Zambrano a better citizen. While Zambrano could change in Miami, Rodriguez points out his declining K/9 and increasing WHIP as red flags that need to be considered along with his character.

Ordonez Nearly Retired Midseason

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Magglio Ordonez went 3-for-3 today in the Tigers' victory over the Yankees in Game 2 of the ALDS, but he almost didn't have the opportunity to do so. The longtime Tiger told Danny Knobler of CBS Sports that he almost retired a few months ago due to lingering issues in his surgically-repaired right ankle.

"When I was playing, I didn't enjoy the game," he said. "And I play with my heart."

Ordonez told Knobler he "almost hung it up" at that point. However, he talked with his family and decided to stick with it. As Knobler points out, Ordonez hit .365/.377/.459 over his final 21 games. The power that made Ordonez such a terror to his opponents in the early and mid-2000s is no longer there, but the 37-year-old now says his ankle feels "normal" like it did before the injury.

Ordonez debuted with the White Sox in 1997 and played there from age 23-30, but joined the rival Tigers as a free agent only to see Chicago win it all in its first year without him. Now, his persistence has positioned him for another shot at a World Series title. He won't sign another eight-figure contract like last offseason's one-year, $10MM deal with the Tigers if he decides he can play again in 2012, but that's probably the last thing on the veteran's mind right now.

Quick Hits: Mets, Rockies, La Russa, Vizquel

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Links for Sunday..

  • Mets lefties Pat Misch and Mike O'Connor declared minor league free agency, writes Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. O'Connor posted an ugly 5.22 ERA but strong 9.8 K/9 in 60 1/3 innings at Triple-A, while Misch posted a 4.00 ERA, 6.0 K/9, and 2.6 BB/9 in 141 2/3 innings.
  • The Rockies will look to bolster their rotation this winter, writes Jim Armstrong of The Denver Post.  General Manager Dan O'Dowd says that he'll especially be looking for an innings eater.
  • Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated (via Twitter) believes that Tony La Russa can have the White Sox job if he really wants it, though that is a big if.  Heyman also tweets that he doesn't see Francona coming to the South Side of Chicago.
  • Shortstop Omar Vizquel talked with Edgar Leal Suarez of La Verdad (Spanish link, translation provided by Nick Collias) about the 2011 campaign and his future plans.  The veteran reiterated that he hopes to continue playing next season and will evaluate his opportunities after the World Series.  
  • David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (via Twitter) expects the Braves to go target shortstops, corner outfielders, and utility infielders this winter.
  • Yankees left-hander C.C. Sabathia is expected to opt-out of his contract but earlier today he confessed that New York is the best place to play baseball, tweets David Waldstein of the New York Times.

Red Sox Notes: Francona, Epstein, Papi, Free Agents

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It's been a tumultuous few weeks for the Red Sox and their fans, and this array of links can speak to that…

  • Steve Buckley of the Boston Herald writes that the ownership trio of John Henry, Tom Werner, and Larry Lucchino deserve some of the blame for Terry Francona's departure from Boston.
  • Boston's brass doesn't want to comment on the possibility of GM Theo Epstein winding up with the Cubs, says the Boston Herald's Scott Lauber, but until they address the situation or until Chicago hires someone, the potential is there.
  • Ken Rosenthal quotes a rival GM who says that when the Red Sox are in crisis mode, "all bets are off," meaning that they could conceivably let Epstein interview for the Cubs' position (Twitter link).
  • In a second tweet, Rosenthal relays a thought from another GM: what could Epstein fetch in return from the Cubs after the White Sox netted two minor leaguers for Ozzie Guillen?
  • Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe wonders if Epstein is the next to head through the Red Sox "spin cycle." Abraham discusses the possibility of Epstein going to the Cubs, and the intriguing possibility of him hiring Francona as his manager there.
  • In the same piece, Abraham notes that if Epstein were to leave the Red Sox, senior vice president and assistant GM Ben Cherington would be a logical replacement. MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith looked at Cherington as a GM candidate back in August.
  • Still in Abraham's article, David Ortiz says he wants to return to the Red Sox in 2012 and beyond, and that Boston fans "don't deserve what we offered them."
  • Hideki Okajima, Drew Sutton, and Dennys Reyes, join yesterday's list of minor leaguers who officially declared free agency, according to Abraham.

MLBTR Originals: 9/25/11 – 10/1/11

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Here's a look back at some of the original content from the MLBTR team this past week:

Week In Review: 9/25/11 – 10/1/11

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It's time to take a look back at the week that was..

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