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Quick Hits: Orioles, Sizemore, Sabathia, Rays

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On this date ten years ago, 42-year-old Tim Raines and his son, 22-year-old Tim Raines Jr., played outfield for the Orioles, becoming the second father-son duo to play in the same outfield (the Griffeys were the first). Here are some recent updates from around MLB…

  • Orioles president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail has not yet decided on his future role with Baltimore, according to MLB.com’s Brittany Ghiroli. It’s expected that MacPhail will step down and that the Orioles will find a replacement. 
  • The Indians announced that Grady Sizemore underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right knee. The Indians say they expect the 29-year-old to be ready for spring training 2012, but it’s hard to be overly optimistic - Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer points out that it’s Sizemore’s fifth surgery in three years. GM Chris Antonetti told Hoynes that he isn’t going to speculate on Sizemore’s $9MM option for 2012.
  • FanGraphs’ Dave Cameron doesn’t deny that some batters have advantages over some pitchers, but he doesn’t endorse relying on past batter/pitcher confrontations to predict  future outcomes.
  • Dave Waldstein of the New York Times explains that there's a small chance C.C. Sabathia threw his last pitch for the Yankees last night, since the left-hander can opt out of his contract after the season. When MLBTR readers voted earlier today, they were divided on Sabathia's offseason earning power.
  • Rays owner Stuart Sternberg told Jim Caple of ESPN.com that he's frustrated that winning hasn't led to improved attendance in Tampa Bay. The Rays' attendance figures dropped by 15% this year and Sternberg says it's "untenable as a model going forward."

Red Sox Notes: Manager, Beltre, Scutaro

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The Cubs have asked the Red Sox for permission to interview GM Theo Epstein, whose contract expires after the 2012 season. Here are some updates on the Red Sox, who will presumably require compensation from Chicago if they lose their longtime GM…

  • In a series of tweets on his personal account, Red Sox owner John Henry says he's confident that the team will end up with a "great manager." Epstein and assistant GM Ben Cherington briefed top Red Sox executives on the managerial search this week and calls and interviews could start as soon as next week. "Excited to once again bring in smart, creative, hands-on leadership," Henry wrote. "We have the right people looking."
  • Adrian Beltre’s three homers carried the Rangers to the ALCS today and while it can’t be fun for Red Sox fans to watch their former third baseman excel for a new team, Alex Speier of WEEI.com reminds us that Beltre himself thought the Red Sox “made a good decision” when they let him go. 
  • Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal suggests that the Red Sox will exercise their $6MM option for Marco Scutaro in the offseason. I wrote last week that I expect the Red Sox to pick up the option instead of allowing Scutaro to explore the open market. As MacPherson explains, Jose Iglesias could use more experience against minor league pitching and Jed Lowrie has had trouble staying healthy.

Angels Notes: Moreno, GM, Napoli

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The Angels are looking for a new general manager after dismissing Tony Reagins and assistants Ken Forsch and Gary Sutherland. Here’s the latest on their offseason plans, starting with an update on who will be making the decisions… 

  • The Angels are having meetings this week to determine whether to hire a new general manager from within or add someone from outside of the organization, according to Scott Miller of CBS Sports (on Twitter). Angels manager of baseball operations Tory Hernandez was one person who came up when we were compiling our list of GM Candidates; Mike DiGiovanna of the LA Times mentioned him as a possible candidate yesterday.
  • Bill Shaikin of the LA Times believes Angels owner Arte Moreno should hire a general manager with a vision for success and strong relationships with teams and agents. As Shaikin points out, “the Angels' preferred one-and-done approach on offers to major free agents has largely failed.”
  • Josh Hamilton told Lyle Spencer of MLB.com that the Rangers might want to acquire another Angel this offseason. Texas successfully added Vladimir Guerrero before the 2010 season and Mike Napoli last offseason, so Hamilton's hoping for more (Twitter link). "I think we're going to look at who we can get from the Angels next year," he said.

Cubs Ask Permission To Speak With Epstein

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The Cubs have asked the Red Sox for permission to speak with GM Theo Epstein, according to Dan Shaughnessy of the Boston Globe. The Red Sox held meetings at Fenway Park today regarding their response to the Cubs' request, according to Shaughnessy. Epstein is under contract through 2012, so the Red Sox would have to grant permission to the Cubs if Epstein is indeed interested in the Cubs' open GM job. In the event that the Cubs try to hire him, the Red Sox will likely ask for compensation.

Epstein has led the Red Sox to two World Series championships since taking over Boston's baseball operations department in the fall of 2002, but Boston's fans currently seem more concerned about this year's late-season collapse than Epstein's past successes. MLBTR's Tim Dierkes examined Epstein's history of building starting rotations earlier today.

How The Rangers Acquired Their Newest Additions

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The Rangers have advanced to the American League Championship Series for the second consecutive October, yet their roster is considerably different in 2011. There are similarities, to be sure, but you don’t have to be Jon Daniels to point to the differences between last year’s team and the one that just eliminated the Rays.

Back in early January, for example, the Rangers signed Adrian Beltre, who hit three homers today. Game 3 hero Mike Napoli arrived in a trade three weeks later. MLBTR’s Transaction Tracker offers a chronological look at the players Texas acquired since losing to the Giants in last year’s World Series. Though the Rangers have acquired dozens of players since them, we’re limiting our focus to those who made the ALDS roster:

In total, the Rangers obtained nine of the 25 players on their ALDS roster (36%) since last year (though German and Treanor also appeared on the 2010 team). The Rangers' new players include their All-Star third baseman, their three catchers, three relievers, a backup infielder and a backup outfielder. It may not be enough to out-do the 2010 team, but after 96 victories, an AL West title and a second consecutive trip to the ALCS, the Rangers’ post-pennant moves are looking good.

NL Central Notes: Astros, Lee, Reds

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The NL Central's two playoff representatives both play tonight. The Cardinals host the Phillies in St. Louis and the Brewers could eliminate the D'Backs in Phoenix. Here's the latest on the division's non-playoff teams as we await today's games…

Dodgers Decline Options On Garland, Blake

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The Dodgers announced on Twitter today that they've declined club options on starter Jon Garland and third baseman Casey Blake, and also outrighted Eugenio Velez to Triple-A.  Typically option decisions are announced after the World Series, but Garland and Blake were obvious choices.

For Garland, the Dodgers chose a $500K buyout over an $8MM club option.  Garland had signed for a below-market guarantee of $5MM in November, but a vesting option in the contract became moot when the righty when down for an oblique injury in March and shoulder surgery in July.  Garland, now 32, had previously been a lock for around 200 innings per season.  If Garland is healthy, his agents at LSW Baseball should have no problem finding a one-year deal worth a few million plus incentives, along with a back-end rotation job.

The Dodgers chose a $1.25MM buyout over a $6MM club option on Blake, finishing a contract signed in December of '08.  The 38-year-old Jim McDowell client hit .252/.342/.371 in 239 plate appearances.  Blake's season was shortened by a ribcage, elbow, and neck injuries, culminating in September neck surgery.  McDowell told MLBTR recently that his client should be "100% for 2012."  Blake is also looking at a one-year deal, probably of the part-time variety.  You can check out MLBTR's list of all the 2012 free agents here.

Velez, now the record-holder for a non-pitcher going hitless in a season with an 0-for-37 showing, was removed from the 40-man roster.  Once free agents Aaron Miles, Jamey Carroll, Hiroki Kuroda, Rod Barajas, Juan Rivera, Vicente Padilla, Jonathan Broxton, and Mike MacDougal are subtracted, the Dodgers' tally will be down to 30.

Poll: How Much Will C.C. Sabathia Get?

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The prevailing opinion is that Yankees ace C.C. Sabathia will opt out of the remaining four years and $92MM remaining on his contract, since he could easily get more money or years.  Bill Madden of the New York Daily News wonders if this will result in the Yankees making another Alex Rodriguez-like overpay, committing at least $125MM over five years in total.

On the high end, though, Sabathia could attempt to top the guarantee he received three years ago: $161MM over seven years.  Since that offseason, Sabathia has added three 230+ inning seasons to his resume, never posting an ERA over 3.37 in a season.  He's still only 31 years old.  Last winter Cliff Lee was 32 upon signing a five-year, $120MM deal with the Phillies.  At the time, we heard that Lee turned down offers guaranteeing $148MM over seven years from the Yankees and $138MM over six years (including heavy deferrals) from the Rangers.

There's more money in the game than there was three years ago, and Sabathia's resume is at least as strong as Lee's was.  Sabathia won't be able to match the 2.13 postseason ERA Lee carried into that offseason, but with a 3.47 mark in ten Yankees postseason starts C.C. hasn't been bad.  Sabathia's postseason work outside of '09 has been subpar, but I'm not sure that will affect the free agent bidding.  I see Sabathia's ceiling as Lee's $24MM salary over another seven-year term, which would be a new record for a pitcher at $168MM.  As with Lee, that seventh year will probably be a sticking point for all involved teams.  Let's hear what you think about the total dollars in today's poll.

 

Arbitration Eligibles: San Diego Padres

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The Padres are next in our arbitration eligibles series.

With 13 arbitration eligible players, the Padres have the biggest class of the 23 teams we've reviewed to date.  It's not a terribly expensive group, however, with no individual projected to exceed a $3MM salary.

The Padres have plenty of non-tender candidates.  September waiver claim Fulchino had a rough year; he'd earn $800K or so.  Others on the bubble include Thatcher ($800K), Johnson ($700K), Gonzalez ($800K), and Hermida ($500K).  There are reasons to retain several of them.  Thatcher had a lost 2011 season due to April shoulder surgery, but a strong 2010.  Gonzalez plays capable defense.  Hermida was a late waiver claim who may merit a look in 2012.

Headley ($3MM), Stauffer ($3MM), Richard ($2MM), Moseley ($1.8MM), Venable ($1.8MM), Hundley ($1.6MM), Gregerson ($1.3MM), and Denorfia ($1.2MM) are on firmer ground.  Richard and Moseley had decent but low-strikeout seasons cut short this summer due to shoulder surgery.  There are also concerns with guys like Venable and Gregerson, but the prices aren't scary.

I don't expect all 13 players to be retained, but their combined salaries project for about $19.3MM.  The Padres have just $13.55MM in 2012 contractual commitments, mostly from their middle infield.  Adding the arbitration eligibles puts the team at $33MM in commitments next year, before minimum salary players are considered.  Next year's payroll is expected to be in the $53-55MM range, leaving around $20MM in 2012 salaries for GM Jed Hoyer to allocate toward another group of low-risk, moderate reward free agents.

Matt Swartz contributed to this post.

Theo Epstein And Starting Pitching

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Theo Epstein was hired as GM of the Red Sox on November 25th, 2002, so he's coming up on nine years at the helm.  The fatal flaw with Epstein's disappointing 2011 club was starting pitching, which prompted me to investigate his work assembling rotations.

2003 – Won wild card.  4.30 rotation ERA ranked fifth in AL.

Epstein had nothing to do with the '03 rotation, so we can strike it from his record.

2004 – Won World Series.  4.31 rotation ERA ranked third in AL.

Epstein deserves credit for 40% of this group, and Schilling was of course crucial.

2005 – Won wild card.  4.56 rotation ERA ranked seventh in AL.

  • Tim Wakefield – He signed an extension in '05 with a recurring $4MM club option, so perhaps he became part of Epstein's ledger here or with the '06 season.
  • Bronson Arroyo
  • Matt Clement – signed by Epstein in '04
  • David Wells – signed by Epstein in '04.
  • Curt Schilling
  • Wade Miller – signed by Epstein in '04.

This was not an impressive group, and most of them can be attributed to Epstein.

2006 – Missed playoffs.  5.00 rotation ERA ranked 11th in AL.

  • Josh Beckett - Seth Mnookin's 2006 book Feeding the Monster mainly credits president Larry Lucchino for the November '05 Beckett trade, as Epstein was on hiatus.  The book says assistant GM Jed Hoyer was in constant consultation with Epstein at the time and was wary of making the deal.  Beckett had a rough '06 season, during which Epstein extended him potentially through 2010.
  • Curt Schilling
  • Tim Wakefield
  • Jon Lester – The 2002 draftee officially goes on the ledger of interim GM Mike Port, though Epstein was in the organization as assistant GM by that point.
  • Matt Clement
  • Kyle Snyder – claimed off waivers by Epstein in '06.

2007 – Won World Series.  4.21 rotation ERA ranked second in AL.

2008 – Won wild card.  4.02 rotation ERA ranked third in AL.

2009 – Won wild card.  4.63 rotation ERA ranked eighth in AL.

  • Josh Beckett
  • Jon Lester – Prior to this season, Epstein signed Lester potentially through 2014.
  • Brad Penny – signed by Epstein as a free agent in '08.
  • Tim Wakefield
  • Clay Buchholz – drafted by Epstein in '05.
  • Daisuke Matsuzaka
  • John Smoltz – signed by Epstein as a free agent in '09.

2010 – Missed playoffs.  4.17 rotation ERA ranked sixth in AL.

  • John Lackey – signed by Epstein as a free agent in '09.
  • Jon Lester
  • Clay Buchholz
  • Daisuke Matsuzaka
  • Josh Beckett – A new extension for Beckett was completed by Epstein prior to this season, running through 2014.
  • Tim Wakefield – Wakefield's recurring option had been exercised three times.  Prior to this season, Epstein hammered out a new two-year extension.

2011 – Missed playoffs.  4.49 rotation ERA ranked ninth in AL.

  • Jon Lester
  • Josh Beckett
  • John Lackey
  • Tim Wakefield
  • Clay Buchholz
  • Andrew Miller – signed by Epstein as a free agent in '10.

Epstein has put together eight rotations in his time as Red Sox GM.  Three could comfortably be described as above-average.  Schilling and Arroyo, his best starting pitching acquisitions, came eight years ago.  So far Buchholz has been the only drafted starting pitcher to make an impact in one of Epstein's rotations, with '06 pick Justin Masterson becoming a major piece of the '09 trade for Victor Martinez.  While Matsuzaka has been disappointing as a whole, he made major contributions in '07 and '08.  Epstein also deserves credit for extending Wakefield, Beckett, and Lester.

Free agent starting pitchers have been a problem, with significant dollars spent on Lackey, Clement, Penny, and Smoltz.  And for a $103MM commitment, Dice-K has not paid off.

The Red Sox seem to have relative stability in their recent rotations, and Lester, Beckett, and Buchholz will be part of the 2012 group.  Still, a major acquisition seems likely this offseason.  For all of Epstein's positive contributions to the club, his ability to acquire good veteran starting pitching must be questioned.

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