Indians Sign Nick Johnson
The Indians, perhaps seeking a midseason OBP boost, officially signed first baseman/DH Nick Johnson to a minor league deal today. Johnson will earn $750K if he makes the team, tweets SI's Jon Heyman. The Indians have a $2.75MM option for 2012, according to Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer (on Twitter).
Rex Gary, Johnson's agent, recently explained to MLBTR that his client is "heading in the right direction" after being limited to 24 games last year due to a wrist injury. Though Johnson probably won't be ready for the beginning of the season and can't swing a bat all-out at this point, he should be ready soon after the season starts.
Johnson, 32, has a .401 on-base percentage over the course of a nine-year career that's seen him hit the disabled list nine times. If Johnson can recover from the wrist operation that sidelined him for most of the 2010 campaign, the Indians will have added a cheap on-base specialist to contribute at first base and DH when Matt LaPorta and Travis Hafner are rested.
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports first reported the agreement on Twitter.
Tim Dierkes contributed to this post.
Cardinals Notes: Freese, Carpenter, Calero
The latest on the Cardinals, as third baseman David Freese makes his first spring start…
- Freese is now represented by CAA, tweets the agency. Phil Tannenbaum was his previous agent. Freese, 28 next month, is a ways off from arbitration eligibility.
- Chris Carpenter felt a twinge in his left hamstring during yesterday's bullpen session, reports Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. He's looking doubtful to start Friday, but there's no timetable for his return. Carpenter's hamstring first became a concern six days ago in a start against the Marlins. Perhaps by the weekend the Cardinals will decide whether to explore external options with Adam Wainwright out of the season and Carpenter's status unknown.
- Kiko Calero's slider looked good in his Cardinals audition, tweets SI's Jon Heyman, but the team told the righty they have a full roster.
Astros Interested In Jesus Flores
The Astros are looking at the Nationals' Jesus Flores as a possible replacement for Jason Castro, reports Ben Goessling of MASNsports.com. The two teams face off today, so hopefully the Nationals will get Flores into the game for the Astros scouts on hand. The Astros are concerned about the condition of Flores' shoulder, according to MLB.com's Bill Ladson.
Flores, 26, was signed by the Mets out of Venezuela nine years ago. Coming off a solid age 21 season in Low-A ball, Nationals GM Jim Bowden took Flores in the 2006 Rule 5 draft. Flores served his time in the Majors in '07 as Brian Schneider's backup, and by June of '08 he'd won the team's starting catcher job. In May of '09, a foul tip off the bat of Chris Young set in motion a major shoulder problem. The injury went from being labeled a bruise to a stress fracture to a torn labrum, resulting in September '09 surgery.
During Flores' long recovery, the Nationals signed Ivan Rodriguez, traded for Wilson Ramos, and saw major development from prospect Derek Norris. Now expendable for Washington, Flores is a great fit for an Astros club that can give him consistent at-bats with Castro out for the season with a torn ACL.
This Offseason’s Mutual Options
One year ago, MLBTR's Mike Axisa asked whether mutual options were baseball's new fad, after at least a dozen were included in contracts during the 2009-10 offseason. As Mike explained, mutual options are almost never picked up by both sides. Instead, they're one way of pushing dollars onto next year's payroll, a more basic version of deferred money. The team can also avoid the buyout altogether when the player declines, in many cases. Here's a look at the eleven contracts from this offseason that included mutual options:
- Diamondbacks: Stephen Drew, Henry Blanco, Willie Bloomquist
- Nationals: Adam LaRoche, Sean Burnett
- Padres: Aaron Harang, Brad Hawpe
- Cardinals: Jake Westbrook.
- Astros: Bill Hall
- Rockies: Rafael Betancourt
- Royals: Jeff Francoeur
Francoeur's buyout is unknown, but otherwise overall the buyouts accounted for 8.7% of the total guaranteed money. At most, a mutual option is a way of pushing a million bucks onto next year's payroll to create flexibility this year.
Who’s Next For A Matt Thornton Contract?
The White Sox "jumped the market" in signing reliever Matt Thornton to a two-year, $12MM extension with a club option for 2014, in the opinion of ESPN's Buster Olney. With free agent relievers cashing in this offseason like never before, the Sox moved early on Thornton to avoid guaranteeing a third year. Olney would not be surprised to see other relievers get similar deals in the coming months; let's look at a few possibilities.
- Ryan Madson is the best candidate, as he turns 31 this year and passed on the free agent market once before despite being represented by Scott Boras. A vintage Madson season puts him in line for three years and $15MM at the least.
- Heath Bell's agent is expected to talk with the Padres during Spring Training, but it's hard to picture the team doing something even in the Huston Street range of three years, $22.5MM. Bell might need to be traded before finding a suitable extension offer.
- Matt Capps is probably only an extension candidate with the Twins if they decide to let Joe Nathan leave after the season. Three-year deals for setup men at top dollar are not the Twins' style, as they seemingly didn't consider the possibility with departing free agents Matt Guerrier and Jesse Crain.
- Jonathan Papelbon and the Red Sox have been content to go year-to-year, so this is probably his last season in Boston. If he's dealt midseason for some reason, maybe his new team would consider an extension.
- Frank Francisco might fit the criteria with a good showing, though the Jays may prefer to bring in new veterans on one-year deals.
- Jonathan Broxton could return to form this year as the Dodgers' closer. If so, the team could try to pluck him off the market early.
- Check out the relievers on our 2012 free agent list – do you see any other candidates to be locked up before the season ends?
Red Sox Notes: Adrian, Buchholz, Miller
The latest on the Red Sox, as John Lackey prepares for his second Spring Training start…
- Though Adrian Gonzalez and the Red Sox have not resumed contract talks since the weekend they traded for him, there is an understanding that a seven-year deal at around $22MM per year will get it done, writes ESPN's Buster Olney. Gonzalez has said a couple of times that there's no pre-set agreement in place, but his agent John Boggs and Sox president Larry Lucchino both expect a deal.
- Regarding a potential multiyear extension, Clay Buchholz told WEEI's Kirk Minihane, "I think we've talked a little bit about it but there's nothing." Buchholz likes the five-year, $30MM deals signed by Jon Lester, Yovani Gallardo, and Ricky Romero, but perhaps the Red Sox need to see more. Buchholz's numbers are comparable to those players, but for a team there is a lot that goes into the decision beyond the stats.
- Manager Terry Francona explained to ESPN's Gordon Edes that he's thinking about the long-term with lefty Andrew Miller (Twitter link). The Red Sox were able to get a unique contract approved for Miller with the aim of subverting the option system, with a $3MM club option that vests for 2012 if he's claimed by another team. On one hand, the Commissioner's Office allowed this clause at first pass. Still, I've spoken to a few execs who think the Red Sox won't get away with it if Miller is actually claimed.
- Red Sox players are meeting today with Players' Association executive director Michael Weiner as well as several special assistants. Jed Lowrie may have a lot to contribute; Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald says the shortstop recently finished up a political science degree from Stanford by writing a 17-page paper comparing the players' unions in MLB and the NFL.
Gregg Zaun Retires
9:59am: Zaun told MLB.com's Corey Brock his shoulder isn't where it needs to be, and he didn't want to leave the team hanging. Padres GM Jed Hoyer told Brock they'll consider both internal and external options. As we discussed with the Astros, there isn't a lot out there.
12:43am: Catcher Gregg Zaun is "set to retire from Major League Baseball," reports Sportsnet.ca. The report says to expect an announcement Monday. Zaun has served as an analyst for Sportsnet during the playoffs since 2006.
Zaun's decision comes as a surprise, as his first Spring Training start yesterday was deemed a success. He'd signed a minor league deal with the Padres and was attempting to win the backup catcher job. Zaun, 40 next month, saw his 2010 season end with June surgery to repair a torn labrum in his shoulder. Zaun contemplated retirement at that point, but told MLB.com's Corey Brock his shoulder responded well to treatment.
Zaun's retirement would clear a path for Rob Johnson to win the Padres' backup job. Johnson was acquired from the Mariners in December for a player to be named later or cash considerations.
Zaun always had a knack for drawing a walk, leading to a .252/.344/.388 line in over 4,000 plate appearances for the Orioles, Marlins, Rangers, Royals, Astros, Rockies, Blue Jays, Rays, and Brewers. He picked up a World Series ring with the '97 Marlins and earned almost $18MM in his career.
Analyzing CarGo’s Contract
In January, the Rockies accomplished a feat thought to be impossible: they locked up Carlos Gonzalez, who is represented by Scott Boras. Despite Boras providing CarGo with "actuary tables that would show Gonzalez's earning power if he would stay healthy and productive," the Rockies were able to buy out three free agent seasons at less than $18MM per year.
Gonzalez's seven-year, $80MM deal set a record for the largest deal signed by a player with between two and three years service time. The contract topped Hanley Ramirez's six-year, $70MM contract, signed nearly three years ago. Other recent deals for two-plus players include Justin Upton's six-year, $51.25MM contract and Jay Bruce's six-year, $51MM pact. A few details on the four contracts:
- Gonzalez is paid $23MM for his three arbitration years plus $53MM over the course of three free agent seasons ($17.67MM per). There are no option years, so CarGo could reach free agency at age 32 and score one more huge deal.
- Ramirez gets $23.5MM for his three arbitration years and plus $46.5MM over three free agent seasons ($15.5MM per). His deal also has no options, and he can reach free agency at age 30.
- Upton will earn $20.75MM for his three arbitration years plus $28.75MM over two free agent seasons ($14.375MM per). The deal has no options, and he can be a free agent at age 28.
- Bruce will make $25.25MM over four arbitration years plus $25.5MM guaranteed over two free agent seasons ($12.75MM per). In the likely event Bruce's 2017 club option is exercised, that's $37.5MM over three free agent seasons or $12.5MM per. If the option is exercised he'll reach free agency at age 30.
CarGo essentially matches Ramirez's arbitration earnings and tops his free agent take by a total of $6.5MM. In one sense Boras deserves credit for brokering the largest deal ever for a two-plus player, but in another Hanley's agents at WMG win since their deal came almost three years earlier.
Though the Rockies paid top dollar to do Gonzalez's extension now, the savings could still be significant. Further along in their careers, Ryan Howard and Joey Votto required $44MM and $38MM for their three arbitration years, respectively. Howard later gave up five free agent seasons at $25MM each, so paying CarGo $16MM in 2015 could be a downright bargain if he remains an elite player.
For my take on the Rockies' other huge extension, the Troy Tulowitzki contract, click here.
Astros Willing To Stretch Payroll For Catcher Addition
Though the Astros are already $2MM over their 2011 payroll target, owner Drayton McLane and GM Ed Wade met yesterday "to set financial parameters for going outside the organization" for a catcher in the wake of Jason Castro's season-ending injury, reports Steve Campbell of the Houston Chronicle.
Comments from McLane and Wade suggest any acquisition will be minor, and Wade isn't ruling out opening the season with Humberto Quintero and J.R. Towles. A few days ago, MLBTR's Mark Polishuk looked at potentially available backstops the Astros could consider.
Ryan Doumit is an obvious fit for the Astros, though in a general sense Wade said, "Even if there was a guy out there making substantial dollars available, I'm not sure we would be in the mix to be able to go do something like that." Keep in mind that the Pirates would likely assume at least half of the $5.6MM owed to Doumit. Ron Musselman of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette has the latest from GM Neal Huntington on the near-dormant Doumit talks.
Evaluating Tulowitzki’s Extension
Troy Tulowitzki's first extension with the Rockies, a six-year, $31MM deal signed three years ago, set a precedent at the time as the largest deal ever for a player with less than two years of Major League service time. Tulowitzki had one full big league season under his belt, but the Rockies guaranteed $17.25MM for his three arbitration years and $10MM for a far-off free agent season, with a club option at $15MM for an additional free agent year. Even with Tulo's lack of service time, the risk in total dollars was minimal.
With the Rockies' first bet on Tulowitzki looking prescient, a few months ago they made another wager about four times the size by guaranteeing their shortstop's 2014 option year (plus an extra million bucks) and adding $118MM for the 2015-20 seasons. The popular question was, why now? Tulowitzki was already under team control through '14. Wouldn't the safe move be to wait at least a few more years?
The answer is that the Rockies likely feared that the price to retain Tulowitzki for his age 30-35 seasons would increase drastically with each additional MVP-caliber season. With the new money totaling $119MM over six years, that's $19.83MM per year. The cost of Tulowitzki's age 30-35 seasons falls between the salaries of newly-signed free agent outfielders Jayson Werth and Carl Crawford, but they're poor comparables. Premium all-around up-the-middle players almost never reach free agency, with only Alex Rodriguez, Carlos Beltran, Torii Hunter, and Miguel Tejada coming to mind in recent years. With such a tiny sample of similar free agents, not to mention economic uncertainty, I can't use a formula to predict what Tulowitzki might have gotten as a free agent in 2015.
Still, it's easy to look at the player Tulowitzki is now and imagine him getting a $200MM+ contract on the open market in four years, given inflation and the rarity of elite shortstops. Since 2000, only Tulowitzki, A-Rod, Brian McCann, Grady Sizemore, Hanley Ramirez, and Joe Mauer posted a pair of 130 OPS+ seasons at age 25 or younger while playing up the middle. Take the sample back to the 90s and we add Mike Piazza, Ken Griffey Jr., and Nomar Garciaparra.
This is where I start to worry about the Rockies' gamble. Sizemore, Griffey, Nomar – in their mid-20s it sure looked like they'd still be premium players at age 30-35. Fans might have responded positively to Tulo-style extensions, unable to imagine worst case scenarios. But Griffey and Nomar saw that slice of their careers destroyed by injuries, and Sizemore currently has something to prove at age 28. Tulowitzki has already missed significant time with a broken wrist and a quad tear in his young career, but he came back strong in both cases.
To their credit, the Rockies built in slight protection by dropping Tulowitzki's base salary down to $14MM in 2020, his final guaranteed season. Performance decline isn't the main concern – even as just a good player, Tulo's contract won't look bad in his early 30s. The greater worry is that injuries will take over at that stage, perhaps due to the extra wear and tear of playing an up-the-middle position.