The latest on the Red Sox, as John Lackey prepares for his second Spring Training start…
- Though Adrian Gonzalez and the Red Sox have not resumed contract talks since the weekend they traded for him, there is an understanding that a seven-year deal at around $22MM per year will get it done, writes ESPN's Buster Olney. Gonzalez has said a couple of times that there's no pre-set agreement in place, but his agent John Boggs and Sox president Larry Lucchino both expect a deal.
- Regarding a potential multiyear extension, Clay Buchholz told WEEI's Kirk Minihane, "I think we've talked a little bit about it but there's nothing." Buchholz likes the five-year, $30MM deals signed by Jon Lester, Yovani Gallardo, and Ricky Romero, but perhaps the Red Sox need to see more. Buchholz's numbers are comparable to those players, but for a team there is a lot that goes into the decision beyond the stats.
- Manager Terry Francona explained to ESPN's Gordon Edes that he's thinking about the long-term with lefty Andrew Miller (Twitter link). The Red Sox were able to get a unique contract approved for Miller with the aim of subverting the option system, with a $3MM club option that vests for 2012 if he's claimed by another team. On one hand, the Commissioner's Office allowed this clause at first pass. Still, I've spoken to a few execs who think the Red Sox won't get away with it if Miller is actually claimed.
- Red Sox players are meeting today with Players' Association executive director Michael Weiner as well as several special assistants. Jed Lowrie may have a lot to contribute; Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald says the shortstop recently finished up a political science degree from Stanford by writing a 17-page paper comparing the players' unions in MLB and the NFL.
Nothing wrong with waiting a few months on Buchholtz, since his numbers seemed to be a little inflated last year.
have a look at fangraphs’ recent piece on buchholz. by the numbers — peripherals included — he’s worthy of the lester extension
As I said there’s a lot to look at beyond the periphs though. His health for one, and his expected motivation if locked up for two.
If Andrew Miller wanted to go to a team that claimed him, couldn’t he say that the option doesn’t have to become garaunteed?
It’s up to the Red Sox, since it’s a club option. Of course, Andrew could ask them to not pick it up, but I don’t know how well that would work. What intrigues me is how some people think the option won’t fly with MLB if it’s attempted, despite it being in the contract.
“Manager Terry Francona explained to ESPN’s Gordon Edes that he’s thinking about the long-term with lefty Andrew Miller”
Translation: He’s starting the season in Pawtucket.
It is great for the red sox that they get team friendly contracts from their homegrown players. The Yankees are extorted even from Jeter. You can bet right now Cano will be seeking more than $6M annually.
That’s because Cano is obviously worth much more than $6M annually…
like 12 million!
or 20!
The Yankees felt pressured to sign Jeter because of his fan appeal, but from everything I heard the fans were more on managements side than Jeter. The Yankees were not forced to sign him. It was their choice.
I’d like to read Lowrie’s 17 page paper.
Wouldn’t it be smarter for Adrian Gonzalez to NOT sign an extension and go free agent? He will be the second best available 1st baseman this winter after Pujols?
Sometimes it’s more than money. Look at Lee, he’s left millions on the table to sign with a team he wants to play for.
Gonzalez has said that he wants to play for the Red Sox, and if they Red Sox are willing to pay him market value ($154M/7 years), then why not sign now?
I agree, I don’t want him to leave. I’m just saying that you never know with these guys. As for Lee if and when his last year kicks in, he will not have left any money on the table as it’s rumored.
The Yankees’ best offer was $132 million over six years, with a $16 million vesting seventh-year option
Lee’s contract with the Phillies has a maximum value of $135 million over six years, with a $27.5 million vesting sixth-year option and a $12.5 million buyout. So it’s a max of $135 million, and a minimum of $120 million. So in essence he really left a seventh year on the table, not THAT much cash wise.
He’s made it clear he wants to play for the REd Sox, and that it was his second dream to play for them, with his first dream being playing with the Padres. There is also no other team that could pay him any more than the Red Sox, seeing as how the Yankees have no need for him, with Teixeira at 1B and various other options for DH. He’s also said he just wants fair market value, and a 7yr./$151M deal would be fair.
Sorry, I mean $154M, not $151M
Buchholz will be extended for about the same as Lester, which is a team friendly deal. I expect him to turn up the K’s this year too.
That’s what some say. I tend to think it has more to do with wanting to make sure the shoulder is completely healed and ready to go. I would think they want to make sure he is 100% healthy before signing him to his mega-deal.
Yes. Basically they’ll be signing him to next year’s (and beyond) contract using money they currently pay to Drew and Cameron. By doing it after the start of the season, it doesn’t count against this year’s luxury tax.
Neither of those are things we can properly evaluate from an outside perspective as compared to the info the Red Sox have.
and big papelbon
Do you guys think he’ll be making more than ARod? The salaries of Drew and Cameron should just about cover it. OK, maybe throw in Wakefield.
Where does Biggie Smalls fit into all of this?
dunno about big karl up there, but i was just indicating how much salary they’ll be shedding next offseason (~$46MM), offsetting the big money they’ll be paying gonzalez and crawford (~42MM)
It’s a vesting club option. If it vests, I think the club could still waive it if they wanted to.
The hair thing drives me nuts. They look like they are all posing for GQ. Ugh. Give me Youk with dirt from his knees to his elbows.
I’d tend to say its a mixture of both. Adrian himself has said it, I’m pretty sure, that he thinks they’d want to wait to see how his shoulder is. So i’m sure thast part of it, thought not all of it. I don’t believe it when he says they don’t have a deal in place though. Well, maybe i should rephrase that. They probably don’t have an actual deal in place, but my guess is both sides know what it will take. And personally, since we’re paying Crawford $20M per yer, i’m ok with Adrain at $22M per
Yeah, OK, but Crawford is already paid for with money they shed THIS off-season (Lugo and Lowell, for instance). Anyway, I don’t think we’re really in disagreement here. I was only responding to the Gonzalez luxury tax question.
Actually theyre shedding 58 million! Drew 14, papi 12.5, papelbon 12, cameron 8, scutaro 6.5, wake 3, tek 2!
I agree. He needs repeatability in his mechanics and you don’t fix that in one month.
“His xFIP was 4.20 while his ERA was 2.33. His HR/FB ratio was 5.6%”
you pretty much just said the same thing twice
PLAYER – GS – IP – K/9 – BB/9 – HR/9 – BABIP – FIP – ERA
Jon Lester – 59 – 354.2 – 6.65 – 3.55 – 0.79 – .303 – 4.13 – 3.81
Y.Gallardo – 51 – 320.0 – 9.14 – 3.91 – 0.90 – .285 – 3.79 – 3.57
Ri.Romero – 61 – 388.0 – 7.31 – 3.73 – 0.77 – .309 – 3.95 – 3.99
CBuchholz – 62 – 364.1 – 6.97 – 3.80 – 0.82 – .285 – 4.08 – 3.68
he’s due for some regression, but the level to which he’s likely to regress is a pretty high quality one
What part about “inlated numbers last year” that ‘garrettf’ mentioned about Buchholz didnt u understand. He actually agrees with you and yet you still argue! A true sox hater who makes yankees fans look bad!
So FANGRAPHS is the Holy Bible of baseball stats? Especially to selective Yankees nutjobs who are jealous of the Red Sox I see!
can you read?
yankees 5th starter
I would say that would qualify for a number 2 starter…for the yanks!!! j/k
XFIP factors in a normalized HR/FB rate. That’s how you were saying the same thing twice.
Also, keep in mind that while some regression is to be expected following a lucky 2010, he should also progress as a pitcher which should off-set some of that regression. Bill James is projecting about a 3.5 ERA which would be consistent with a low end #1, high end #2 starter.
“I don’t see how I was saying the same thing twice.”
the only thing unique to xFIP is that it normalizes HR/FB%
“I also don’t see how regressing to an ERA over 4 is deemed regressing to a “pretty high quality”.”
i don’t see how you could make a determination of quality using ERA anyway. but the biggest flaw here might be assuming that buchholz – a guy with 1 full season under his belt — is finished developing and will get not better. among other things, the list i gave you above suggests otherwise
Tim, I completely agree. Also I believe the Sox would hold off on any long term deal with Buchholz until after opening day for luxury tax purposes. Say he signs the same deal as Lester (5yrs $30M), that’s an extra ~$5.5M that would be counted for this years tax bill if they signed him today instead of early April.
I’m not entirely sure how it would work though, if it would maybe be 6 years and $30.5M, but you get the concept behind what I’m trying to say at least.
this is what happens when i forget to wear my tin foil hat
I blame it on being the end of the work day, but whatever does it for you 😛
Edit: just saw the other similarity… I like the way you think!
they aren’t necessarily shedding scutaro
What makes you say that?
he has a club option at $6m; he has a player option at $3m, and he’s a useful infielder to keep around at either of those prices
With Iglesias slated to be ready for 2012 + Lowrie in the fold there is ZERO chance the club option is exercised and I doubt he would take the player option for 3mil..he could probably get more than that elsewhere. I think it’s more likely that Scutaro is traded before the end of the season than him being a Red Sox in 2012.
“With Iglesias slated to be ready for 2012 + Lowrie in the fold there is ZERO chance the club option is exercised ”
you may want to wait for 2011 to happen before you “slate” iglesias as the starting shortstop for 2012
even if he does start in 2012, why wouldn’t you keep sctuaro? you forgot to show your work. lowrie’s presence doesn’t preclude scutaro’s. you just implied you think he’s trade bait, so why wouldn’t you exercise his option and then trade him? or trade lowrie if you’re already crowning iglesias
You wouldn’t keep Scutaro because they’re better options for less money. He’s gone after this year, just get over it.
thorough analysis
you’re so right bro it would suck to have a surplus of affordable quality shortstops those are a dime a dozen these days better get rid of that guy