Poll: Which Team Will Sign Orlando Cabrera?
Most of the big time free agents are off the board, leaving just spare parts and stopgap players on the shelves. One such player is Orlando Cabrera, who’s certainly familiar with this role. None of his three career free agent contracts were agreed to before the month of January, and he even had to wait until early March before joining the Athletics in 2009. Once again, he’s waiting for a team looking for a short-term solution to call his name.
The number of teams looking for an upgrade at short is surprisingly small, but the Reds (who employed Cabrera in 2010) are one of them; they recently spoke to Edgar Renteria‘s agent. Perhaps the Pirates get involved as well. A number of clubs are looking for infield help off the bench, including the Giants and Yankees, but Cabrera doesn’t exactly qualify as a bench player. He’s played shortstop exclusively for the last ten seasons, with his only other playing time coming at second base (just 241 career innings). That doesn’t mean he can’t play second or third, just that he hasn’t done in a while.
At age 36, Cabrera’s game is slipping noticeably. He was never a great on-base threat, but his OBP fell to just .303 this past season, his lowest since his rookie season. His overall batting line (.263/.303/.354) represents the lowest OPS (.657) he’s ever put up in a full season. Cabrera’s defense has declined but still qualifies as above average at +4.5 UZR over the last three seasons. The baseline for shortstop production is pretty low these days, so Cabrera can still be a viable everyday player.
Which team will sign Orlando Cabrera?
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Another team not listed 20% (1,178)
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Reds 19% (1,140)
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Pirates 19% (1,106)
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Giants 18% (1,090)
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Yankees 14% (834)
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He'll go unsigned 10% (591)
Total votes: 5,939
MLBTR Originals: 12/26/10 – 1/2/11
With a relatively small amount of baseball news being made during in the last week, we pumped out plenty of original content to help quench your hot stove thirst. Let's recap all of it…
- With 2010 drawing to close, we presented our list of the top 15 stories of the year, led by Cliff Lee's season-long saga. Ben Nicholson-Smith also rounded up the top 15 remaining free agents, and we also looked at each club's remaining needs.
- Tim Dierkes looked ahead to potential impact bats that could be available after the 2012 season, and wondering how long Phillies' four aces could stay together. He also listed the best signings from January 2010, the hardest available throwers, and wrote about all the backloaded deals being given out.
- Ben named five outfielders that could benefit from Jayson Werth's contract, and looked to see if there's a fit between the Rays and Brian Fuentes. He also examined the Mariners' offseason, explained what changed for Orlando Hudson, listed the remaining free agents that will cost a draft pick to sign, and explored outfield options for the Braves. Finally, he spoke to Pirates GM Neal Huntington about his team's rebuilt bench.
- Steve Adams looked at alternatives for Adam LaRoche, Dan Mennella broke down the market for Rafael Soriano, and Luke Adams tried to dig up possible fits for Grant Balfour. Ben did the same for Troy Glaus, Tim for Manny Ramirez. I examined the youngest free agent on the market.
- This week's poll questions asked which DH you'd sign for 2011, where Scott Podsednik will sign, where Adrian Beltre will sign, will Carl Pavano get a three-year deal, and whether or not Andy Pettitte will retire.
- Discussion topics included lefty relief options for the Mets, middle infield options for the Yankees, and Washington's first base backup plan.
- We explored the history of transactions made on December 26th, December 28th, December 31st, and January 2nd.
- Howard Megdal's latest Jack Of All Trades post focused on Esteban Loaiza.
- I rounded up the best the blogosphere had to offer in this week's Baseball Blogs Weigh In.
- This week's chat transcript can be found here.
- Our Arbitration Tracker debuted, and there will plenty of action for the Angels, Padres, Blue Jays, and Giants. Don't forget to check out our team Facebook pages.
Week In Review: 12/26/10 – 1/1/11
Happy New Year to all of our readers! Let's take a look back at the past seven days here on MLBTR:
- The Orioles continued to revamp their infield when they added Derrek Lee on a one-year deal worth close to $8MM. Lee's deal could total $10MM with incentives, and he should add yet another improved element to a rebuilt offense in Baltimore.
- Sticking in the AL East for a few more transactions: the Blue Jays signed Octavio Dotel for one year and $3.5MM with a club option for 2012, while the Red Sox brought back Hideki Okajima on a one-year deal.
- The Brewers signed Takashi Saito to a one-year deal with a base salary under $2MM. While he carries health risks, a healthy Saito at that price is a bargain, especially given this year's relief market.
- The Rangers made a pair of signings this week. First, they brought Brandon Webb on board for one year with a $3MM base and plenty of incentives. Second, they looked long-term and signed 16-year-old Venezuelan shortstop Rougned Odor for a $450K bonus.
- The Mets and Dodgers swapped lefty Mike Antonini and former top shortstop prospect Chin-lung Hu this week. Hu has been ranked as high as 55th on Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects list, but that was prior to 2008.
- With Lee off the board, the Nationals have turned their focus to Adam LaRoche, and have extended him a two-year offer worth $8MM-$9MM per season. LaRoche seems to be holding out for a third year.
- Adrian Beltre is still on the market, but the A's are no longer in on the free agent third baseman. Beltre appears to be down to the Rangers and Angels as serious suitors for the time being.
- Tons of rumors regarding the relief market this week, so let's tackle them with the remainder of this post. As many as 11 teams are interested in Brian Fuentes, particularly the Rays.
- Six teams, including the A's, are in on Chad Qualls, while the Orioles have interest in adding Grant Balfour.
- David Aardsma will undergo hip surgery to repair a torn labrum, meaning he won't be traded.
- Joakim Soria said he would OK a trade to the Yankees, or any other team, if given the opportunity.
- The White Sox have definite interest in bringing Rafael Soriano to the south side of Chicago, but they don't appear to have the remaining funds to do so.
Alternatives For Adam LaRoche
At this point, it seems like a match: Adam LaRoche and the Nationals need each other. The Nats seek a proven solution at first base in the wake of Adam Dunn's departure, and they've got the money to spend on the multiyear deal that LaRoche is seeking. With Derrek Lee off the table and on his way to Baltimore, it seems simple. And yet, it hasn't happened. LaRoche is still seeking a three-year deal, but without much obvious competition, the Nats have no reason to bid against themselves and increase their standing two-year offer.
Earlier today, the Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo speculated that the Nats may eventually cave into LaRoche's demands, but what if GM Mike Rizzo and his staff decide to stand their ground? LaRoche could conceivably sign yet another one-year deal somewhere and hope to cash in on a strong season, or sign a two-year deal with a team more apt to contend in the near future. Let's look at some possibilities:
- Rays: Tampa Bay lost Carlos Pena to free agency, and is currently looking to the likes of Dan Johnson as an option for both first base and DH. The Rays may not be able to offer the salary LaRoche would prefer, but their pitching staff and young core offer a shot at contention.
- Rangers: Mitch Moreland and Chris Davis are no sure things as first base options, and Texas offers one of the best environments for a slugger to build up some value on a short-term deal while also offering a chance to contend.
- Padres: While the spacious confines of Petco Park represent the opposite situation of those in Texas, LaRoche is a native of southern California. The Pads added Brad Hawpe earlier this offseason, but he carries plenty of question marks as a first baseman. If LaRoche's price drops enough, it's not unthinkable to see a match.
- Mariners, Braves: Both clubs have big-time prospects set to take over at first base in Justin Smoak and Freddie Freeman, respectively. If either club is hesitant about their young options though (Freeman is just 21 years old, Smoak is 24), LaRoche could represent a solid stopgap.
When it's all said and done, none of these teams are an ideal match; the Nationals represent the best fit for the 31-year-old LaRoche. Still, he and his agents at SFX could potentially drum up enough competition to either force the Nationals into a three-year commitment or find work elsewhere should the Nats hold their ground.
This Date In Transactions History: January 2nd
While New Year's Day historically hasn't featured many transactions, things generally start picking up again by the second day of the year. Here's a look at some of the more notable moves to occur on January 2nd over the years….
- Two interesting signings occurred just one year ago, when the Cubs inked Marlon Byrd to a three-year, $15MM contract and the Giants signed Santiago Casilla to a minor league deal. While Byrd had a successful season for the Cubs and earned his first All-Star berth, Casilla had the more significant impact on the 2010 pennant race. After being called up in May, the right-hander set career bests with a 1.95 ERA over 55 1/3 innings for the World Champions.
- On this day in 2003, the Cubs signed Rod Beck, who was coming off Tommy John surgery at the time. It was an eventful year for Beck; he made national headlines by welcoming fans to drop by his mobile home in Iowa for autographs and free beer. He was eventually traded to San Diego, where he replaced an injured Trevor Hoffman by recording a 1.78 ERA and 20 saves, earning the NL's Comeback Player of the Year award.
- In a pre-Moneyball world, Oakland's signing of Scott Hatteberg on this day in 2002 probably didn't raise many eyebrows. However, Hatteberg enjoyed the best year of his career to date, posting a .374 OBP and 15 homers for the Athletics, and was later immortalized as "Pickin' Machine" in Michael Lewis' book.
- Jamie Moyer was already a well-traveled veteran when the Red Sox signed him on January 2nd, 1996. Boston was Moyer's fifth team, but it was number six that stuck – prior to the trade deadline, the Red Sox sent the left-hander to Seattle, where Moyer spent the next ten years.
- On the same day Moyer signed with Boston, the Reds brought back a key player from their 1990 World Champion squad: Eric Davis. Plagued by injuries, Davis had hit just .227/.317/.368 in 957 plate appearances since leaving Cincinnati. He bounced back nicely in '96 for the Reds though, with 26 home runs and a .917 OPS.
- After earning an All-Star berth for his first half, Frank Viola had a disastrous second half for the Mets in 1991, losing ten games and pitching to a 5.53 ERA following the All-Star break. That ended his stint in New York, resulting in Boston signing him on this day in 1992. Viola's time in Boston was cut short by Tommy John surgery in 1994, but the former Cy Young winner pitched well to that point, with a 3.40 ERA in 70 starts for the Red Sox.
Cafardo On Blanton, Beltre, Indians, LaRoche
In today's column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe names ten teams who might reap the benefits of bargain shopping as the winter winds down. The Rays, Mets, Yankees, and Angels top the list of clubs Cafardo thinks could make discounted moves in the coming weeks. Here are the rest of his hot stove notes:
- While the Mets will be hunting for affordable starting pitching options, don't expect the Phillies to trade Joe Blanton within the division.
- The Angels are making sure they don't bid against themselves on Adrian Beltre, and could eventually land the third baseman for a lesser price than Scott Boras is seeking.
- The Indians could make some more moves if they want to continue stockpiling prospects. Other teams would have interest in players like Chris Perez, Rafael Perez, Joe Smith, and Fausto Carmona, while Cleveland would "love to trade" Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner.
- The Nationals "know it’s tough to get players to buy into the future of the team," writes Cafardo. As such, they may eventually commit to Adam LaRoche for the three years he's looking for.
- Jim Masteralexis, Manny Delcarmen's agent, says several teams are interested in his client, and Cafardo warns not to bet against the Rays.
- Carl Pavano may make a decision this week, and it appears that while he'd prefer to return to Minnesota, the Nationals will offer the better contract. Of course, we already saw one top free agent pitcher choose comfort over more guaranteed money, when Cliff Lee signed with the Phillies.
Poll: The Designated Hitter Market
The market for designated hitters has been slow to develop this winter, meaning that a few intriguing veteran bats are still available. When we looked at MLBTR's top 15 remaining free agents this week, three of the top six names were designated hitters, with another likely DH, Johnny Damon, also cracking the list.
Manny Ramirez, Jim Thome, Vladimir Guerrero, and Damon all appear capable of contributing solid offensive production in 2011. Of the four, only Damon had a 2010 OPS below .841, and he still reached base at a .355 clip, right in line with his career rate. Considering their defensive limitations and the fact that they're on the wrong side of 35, it seems unlikely that any of these four will land multiyear deals. While the values may vary, one-year contracts in designated hitter roles appear probable for all four players.
Taking into account that likely variance in salary, here's tonight's poll question: if you were an American League GM in search of a DH, which player would you prefer to add? Who will provide the most bang for your buck in 2011? Ramirez, Thome, Guerrero, and Damon are the most intriguing names out there, but there are also a few under-the-radar DH candidates available, as MLBTR's free agent tracker shows, so be sure to take that into consideration as well.
Which DH would you sign for 2011?
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Vladimir Guerrero 49% (9,328)
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Jim Thome 29% (5,563)
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Manny Ramirez 15% (2,878)
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Johnny Damon 5% (1,046)
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Someone else 2% (365)
Total votes: 19,180
White Sox Eyeing Soriano, Done Spending?
While "there seems to be interest" in bringing Rafael Soriano to Chicago, the White Sox may not have enough cash left to seriously pursue the right-hander, reports SI.com's Jon Heyman (via Twitter).
The White Sox have made well over $100MM in contract commitments so far this offseason, re-signing Paul Konerko and A.J. Pierzynski, as well as bringing in Adam Dunn and Jesse Crain. As a result, they have "little if any" spending money at the moment, according to Heyman.
Soriano appears poised to land a multiyear deal that exceeds, if not Mariano Rivera's $30MM agreement with the Yankees, at least Joaquin Benoit's $16.5MM pact with the Tigers. As Heyman points out (on Twitter), signing Soriano would be a great way for Chicago to replace the non-tendered Bobby Jenks, but the Sox will have to find some money before they can be considered a legit suitor for the market's top closer.
MLBTR's Dan Mennella examined Soriano's market on Thursday, while earlier in December, we asked MLBTR's readers where you thought Soriano would sign. Nearly 13% of over 13,000 respondents picked the White Sox.
Possible Fits For Grant Balfour
Earlier this week, MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith noted that only four free agents who'd cost a draft pick to sign remain on the market. Because Adrian Beltre, Rafael Soriano, Carl Pavano, and Grant Balfour were Type A players who turned down offers of arbitration, teams signing them will have to surrender a high pick in the 2011 draft.
While parting with a draft pick wouldn't be a huge price to pay for signing Beltre, Soriano, or Pavano, the same can't necessarily be said about Balfour. The right-hander ranks 12th among our top 15 remaining free agents, whereas Beltre, Soriano, and Pavano grab the top three spots, respectively. Even in an offseason that has featured many lucrative deals for bullpen arms, giving up a first- or second-round pick for a reliever who's just one year removed from a 4.81 ERA is risky.
Which teams will be willing to take that risk and pursue Balfour anyway? Let's try to find some potential fits….
- Orioles: They are said to have a "definite interest" in the righty, and their first-round pick in 2011 is protected, meaning they'd send a second-rounder to the Rays if they signed Balfour. They've been linked to Kevin Gregg in recent weeks as well, and seem unlikely to add both pitchers, so an agreement with Gregg could potentially take them out of the running.
- Rays: It was no sure thing that Balfour would turn down their arbitration offer – they appeared willing to bring him back. They're still in the market for late-inning relief help, and Balfour would be a fit if the price was right.
- Nationals: Draft pick compensation shouldn't be a concern for Washington; they added extra picks when Adam Dunn signed with the White Sox, and have already parted with their second-rounder due to the Jayson Werth signing. As such, they'd be giving up a third-rounder if they added Balfour, and MLBTR's Tim Dierkes identified the bullpen as one area the team could still address this winter.
- Athletics, Pirates: Both clubs have a little money to spend, as shown by Oakland's pursuit of Beltre and bid on Hisashi Iwakuma, as well as Pittsburgh's handful of free agent signings. They also both have protected first-round picks. Billy Beane hinted after the Josh Willingham trade that the A's might look to add a reliever, while the Pirates had some interest in Octavio Dotel before the veteran agreed to sign with Toronto.
- Yankees, Twins: Both teams would have to surrender their first-rounder to sign Balfour, which makes them unlikely suitors. Still, the Twins have already lost Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier to free agency, so they could use some relief help. The Yankees don't necessarily have a pressing need, but they've been linked to at least one reliever recently, in Brian Fuentes, and it's never safe to write them off on any free agent.
Last week, over 56% of about 5800 MLBTR readers voted that Balfour would land a multiyear deal somewhere. I agreed when I examined Balfour's free agent stock on the heels of Joaquin Benoit's $16.5MM deal, expressing optimism about the 33-year-old's chances of landing a multiyear contract worth at least $10MM or so. Although that's still a possibility, many of the teams we expected to be in on Balfour have addressed their bullpen in other ways. And as Tim pointed out when discussing Fuentes, a shift toward a buyer's market may occur as the spring approaches.
Several Teams Interested In Brian Fuentes
SATURDAY: Having added Hideki Okajima, the Red Sox appear out of the running for Fuentes, tweets Heyman. However, the Rays, Yankees, and a handful of other teams are still showing interest.
THURSDAY: The Rays appear to be very interested in Fuentes and are pursuing him, according to Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times.
TUESDAY: SI's Jon Heyman pegs the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Rays, Rockies, Mariners, Twins, Pirates, Phillies, Brewers, Yankees, and Mets as teams with some interest in free agent lefty reliever Brian Fuentes.
If Fuentes is still looking for Scott Downs money, as ESPN's Buster Olney suggested 12 days ago, many of those eleven teams will drop out. I'm skeptical the Red Sox would sign Fuentes, as he'd be a luxury and they'd be hit with a 30% added tax. The Blue Jays appear close with Octavio Dotel, the Rockies just added Matt Lindstrom, the Brewers signed Takashi Saito, the Yankees added Pedro Feliciano, the Twins have big commitments to Joe Nathan and Matt Capps, and the Phillies and Mets appear nearly tapped out on payroll.
The Blue Jays, Rays, Mariners, Twins, Pirates, Yankees, and Mets do seem destined to add relievers, though I can see a shift toward a buyer's market a few weeks from now.