News and notes out of the American League East..
- Orioles catcher Matt Wieters told reporters today that he doesn't hold a grudge against the club for renewing his contract, writes Peter Schmuck of The Baltimore Sun. The Scott Boras client will be eligible for arbitration after this season and can hit the open market after the 2015 season.
- Joel Sherman of the New York Post offers up two ideas for how the Yankees can stay below the $189MM threshold while keeping their core in tact. His first idea is to extend and rework Alex Rodriguez's after the 2013 season in order to lower the average value of his contract. Rodriguez is currently slated to make $86MM over four years starting in 2014 but Sherman suggests that the Bombers could turn $24MM in uncertain bonuses into a $14MM add-on for '18. The Bombers could also suppress the average salary of Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson by extending them under their current deals rather than after 2014.
- As he waited for the Yankees' call this offseason, Eric Chavez wasn't sure if he'd be playing this year, writes Jeff Bradley of the Star-Ledger. Chavez, 34, also had conversations with the White Sox but ultimately chose to return to New York.
- Bobby Valentine & Co. are working to solve the Red Sox bullpen puzzle, which involves several relievers who are out-of-options, writes Alex Speier of WEEI.com.
- Red Sox closer Andrew Bailey took a long and strange path to wind up where he is today, writes Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe.
We always bring up Wells, Soriano and Zito, but A-Rods contract is the worst of them all
Listen, first off, i am not a fan of Arod. He is my elast favorite player and i cannot stand the Yankees. But i am not ignorant to the fact that ARod has done them some good, much more than the names you mentioned. 2011-Down year, he was hurt, but 2010, 2009, 2008 were all solid offensive eyars. Yes his defense will start to decline but lets look at Arod from 2008 on…
2008: 35 HRs, 103 RBI, .573 SLG. .302 AVG…965 OPS
2009: 30 HRs, 100 RBIS, .532 SLG, .286 AVG… .933 OPS
2010: 30 HRs, 125 RBIS, .506 SLG, .270 AVG… .847 OPS
yes he is declining in some areas, but to say those three years was horrible, even more so than Wells, Soriano and Zito? That is a ridiculous Anti-ARod, Anti-yankee statement. I want you to do some homework, pull up those three guys contracts and the value they brought and compare it to ARod. But do not spew ignorant statements because you despise a player. Facts are facts no matter how you look at it..
And yes, Arod’s contract might end horribly and I mean AWFUL, but to say as of so far it is bad? I would have to disagree, strongly disagree. Yes 2011 was awful, but injuries plague every player sooner or later. Arod played majority of most seasons, but had one injury riddled year. If he continues having injury problems then the rest of his contract will look absurd, but one bad year doesnt put him in the categories of the others…YET.
A-Rod is probably the most naturally talented baseball player on the planet, and admittedly people are pretty hard on him for “only” putting up 3-4 WAR seasons in his advanced age, but that contract is awful on principle alone. He opted out after a career year, the Yankee brass panicked and bid against themselves and gave a 33 year old the largest contract in baseball history. He was 100% worth his original deal with the Rangers, but considering he is probably going to be moved to full time DH if misses significant time again this season…
I’d say J.Hamillton is more naturally talented, but arods close
True Five tool SS> any other position in baseball.
Please review how much A-rod is still owed, how much he made last year, how much he will make this year, and how much he will make at the age of 42. I rest my case.
I know how much he is still owed. I said as of this moment, Arod has earned for the most part his contract. i even said several times his age and future will most likely prove this contract to be completely ludicrous and horrific, but as of irght now it is not a bad contract (yes the Yankees bid against themselves).
I am not saying the Yankees made a great investment, all I am saying is the three names that you listed are barely playable on field, while Arod is still putting up numbers that help a team. In two years i will say “yeah well here is where the Contract gets really bad” but thats in two years, do I think Arod is worth his contract? No, he is worth the first 3-4 eyars of it and not the rest.
yes I know injuries show a players decline (notsureifsrs) I have already addressed that. That one season might be an outlier as opposed to rest of career, and we shall see how that plays out of the next couple seasons.But Zito, Wells, Soriano are bench players, who play because of contracts and Arod is playing because he is not written off quite yet.
I am not defending Arod, i am simply saying to this point the contract hasnt been bad (detrimental) for the Yankees at this moment. Its an awful contract, I agree, but it hasnt been seen as of yet like the others. So as far as we know Arod hang on with 28/95 line for the next five years which is not worth the money but its not like he is going onto bench detail with that. That is all I am saying. Those other guys have become detrimental to there team and only play because of the contract, until Arod gets to that point, the contract isnt as bad, because the Yankees have a player who is actually capable of playing
Fortunately for the Yankees, A-Rod’s contract decreases every year the remainder of it. Still owed a ton though. I’d still say Zito’s contract was the worst.
Zito’s WAR is 6.6 TOTAL in 5 season with the Giants. A-Rod nearly matched that in his first season in his new contract.
You’re simply saying A-Rod’s is the worst because he makes the most money. Fact of the matter is, A-Rod, when healthy at least, still would give the Yankees a 4 WAR season.
The Giants overpaid for Zito more than the Yankees overpaid for A-Rod. A-Rod is still a well above average baseball player (when healthy that is). Zito is a well below average pitcher.
Unlike the Angels with Pujols, it’s very fortunate the Yankees took the opposite approach and have paid A-Rod the most amount of his money at the youngest of his years
You’re saying look at how much A-Rod will make at 42, well it’s about $14 million less than what Pujols will make at that age.
he didn’t say a-rod is worse than those players; he said his contract is worse than theirs. that’s true
he’s been a very good player the last few years, but he has been paid almost $100M in that time. he isn’t worth that money. at all
and you don’t get to write-off injuries as if they’re not part of the calculus here. decline and injury are two of the major reasons you don’t sign players to 10-year contracts through their late thirties – especially for $275M. both of them are predictable risks
good player, terrible contract. and sherman’s idea of idea of extending it through his age 42 season is just adorable
It is a bad contract but he is worth way more. Soriano, zito, wells are struggling to be a replacement player. Arod I would still put among the top 5-10 third basemen with a potential for top one
sure you would, but it’s 2012. a-rod has 6 years to go on his contract
A-Rod can be awful in his final 3 years and the Yankees STILL would make out like bandits in comparison to those other contracts.
that’s an interesting conclusion. why didn’t you show your work? let’s take a quick look at soriano
– 8/$135M starting in 2007
– to date, has produced 15.5 WAR over 5 seasons with 3 seasons left
– to date, has been paid $74M with $61M remaining
– he is 36. he projects to produce 1.5 – 2.5 WAR this year and 3 – 6 WAR over the next 3 years (.5 WAR per year decline)
18.5 – 21.5 total WAR over 8 seasons for $135M = ~$6.75M per win. now a-rod
10/$275 starting in 2008
– to date, has produced 18.6 WAR over 4 seasons with 6 seasons left
– to date, has been paid $122M with $153M remaining
– he is 36. he projects to produce 4 – 5 WAR this year and 16.5 – 22.5 WAR over the next 6 years (.5 WAR per year decline)
35.1 – 41.1 total WAR over ten seasons for $275M = ~$7.2M per win
so even on the straight-up basic counting math the a-rod deal comes out worse
now there is absolutely a real benefit to overpaying a ~4 WAR player versus overpaying a ~2 WAR player and that cannot be discounted. but that benefit is more than offset by the massive risk that comes with 3 additional years at $79M paid for the better player’s age 39-41 seasons. the .5 WAR decline rate we used for their 36-38 seasons is likely too lenient at that point – and that changes the outcome significantly
a-rod is the better player by far and the yankees are in a much better position to deal with it than the cubs were. but none of that changes the fact that the a-rod deal is the worst of the worst
If you are evaluating his contract strictly against his on-field performance then you have a point. But when investing so much money you would take marketing into account as well. The money A-rod brings in from equipment (jerseys, etc.) and people to games most likely offsets a large chunk of the his contract. This is something neither Wells, Soriano nor Zito can do.
any numbers on that? merchandising revenue is split evenly between the 30 clubs, so that’s a non-factor
would the yankees sell fewer tickets without a-rod? not if his money was used to keep a winning team on the field (that’s what sell tickets)
and if cashman is as good as most believe, that shouldn’t be a problem
overall there’s probably a difference, but it probably isn’t significant
You are nitpicking now though.
The revenue maybe be distributed to all 30 clubs but it doesn’t negate the fact that Arod himself does bring other benefits besides his performance that none of the other 3 players can bring in. Neither of those three guys would bring a significant amount of revenue and I am willing to bet that all 3 combine cant bring in what Arod brings in.
You can argue that Arod does bring people to games. If instead of having Arod you have Soriano or Wells, you basically lose a rather large fanbase (Arod’s fans), compared to a Wells, Soriano, or Zito fanbase. Numbers may not be large or significant on a larger scale (overall team attendance) but comparing these 4 guys there’s probably a large difference between them.
My point was that Arod’s contract isn’t so bad as many would like to think when you factor the other variables. Do I think his contract is bad? I do. Do I think his contract is as bad as Wells, Soriano or Zito’s? I don’t.
I don’t think the revenue that Arod bring is significant enough to make his contract acceptable but it is significant enough to make it better than the other three contracts.
Let me ask you this, if all players are put on waivers, which one would you choose if you had to choose one? Assume you have to take on his full contract and that you are not financially handicapped.
– the point is that they’d get similar merchandise revenue from a-rod even if he didn’t play in NY
– i’d wager that well under 1% of fans go to yankees games because of a-rod
– zito in a heartbeat. after that, it’s an ugly toss up between wells and soriano. a-rod is the last one i’d take
it’s not because i dislike him. he’s the best player of the group by a mile. but these are awful contracts, so the sooner you’re free from them the better off your team is
his contract would sink just about any team that isn’t the yankees. age 36-41 seasons are hugely uncertain. $30M per dice roll? no way
You point is probably valid but that’s not my point. My point is not about how much revenue a team gets after distribution but about the amount of revenue, before distribution, each player can bring in. Arod wins hands down. Even if you want to consider the after distribution number, Arod would bring much more than what the other 3 would bring in. That is one of the reason why Arod contract is better than the other 3.
You would rather pay $57mil (assuming his option vests, highly possible due to his track record) for 3 years of a pitcher who is gives you the same performance a $2-3mil pitcher can give you in a pitcher’s park? One good thing about him is that he is consistent. With Wells and Soriano you’ll be paying $63mil and $54mil, respectively, for 3 years and who are about to enter into their decline ages. Arod is due $143mil for 6 more years but he has yet to show major decline in performance and even with all the injuries from last year he posted respectable numbers (not worth $30mil obviously). For the best performance per dollar, he is probably the best option. I don’t see him having a sharp decline in performance, especially since he will be transitioning to the DH spot. His salary also decreases to $20-21mil for the last three years.
Reading this posts are getting more and more difficult and typing is a pain as well so I guess this would be my last reply. nice talking with you though.
You just leave your maths out of this.
Problem 1: The WAR to money conversion is never reliable in the slightest bit since it all depends on the market and not at all to do with your silly formulas.
Problem 2: WAR is a pretty bad stat to use in total considering half of it uses defensive metrics which are very far from perfect (even if it is better than traditional defensive stats) and even if we pretended defensive metrics were reliable, UZR isn’t reliable anyway when used for a period of less than 3 years.
1 – i didn’t do any WAR/dollar conversions
2 – i’d take your criticism of WAR more seriously if you provided any insight, any alternative, any work at all that supports your conclusion or challenges mine. what you’ve done so far amounts to “nuh uh”
”
he’s been a very good player the last few years, but he has been paid almost $100M in that time. he isn’t worth that money. at all”
A-Rod’s WAR since his contract started is 18.6 which would mean he would be “worth” $93 million.
“last few years” = 3. sorry if that wasn’t clear
if you start when the contract starts, he’s been paid $122M – a $30M deficit
Yeah I figured he was paid more than “almost $100 mil”. Just to note, $122 mil is not “almost $100 mil”, it’s well over it lol
Zito has made exactly $80 million and has produced a 4.6 WAR (I average B-Ref and FWar together). Approximately a loss of $59 million.
So yes, Zito’s has been worse than A-Rods and there’s a good chance it will be.
Depends on if you go based on total $ lost or Percentage won/lost
Meaning a guy who produced a WAR value of $50 million on a $100 million contract. Do you consider that better or worse than a guy who produced a value of $40 million on an $85 million contract.
Example 1 – Cost a team $50 million more than worth but produced better (or I should say, didn’t produce as bad) as Example 2 – Who cost his team less money than #1 but performed worse for the $.
but the contracts aren’t finished, so neither can your analysis be. projecting zito at a lame 1 WAR going forward, he’ll total for ~7 WAR over 7 years for $126M. absolutely awful by any standard
the problem is that zito’s contract basically starts right now for a-rod (who has 6y/$153M remaining) only it isn’t for his 29-35 seasons as it was for zito; it’s for his 36-42 seasons
yes, he’s a much better player. and physically he is a phenom; there’s a chance he could beat all the odds and remain productive into his 40s
but the risk is absolutely massive. having already lost money on the deal, the yankees are basically giving him the zito contract (less one year and plus $30M) as a player 6 years older than zito was
that’s why i call it the worst one. that’s the kind of risk that probably kills any non-yankee franchise
If my analysis can’t be finished, then yours and no one else’s can either. As I said right now, Zito’s has been worse without question. Zito has played 5 seasons under his if I’m not mistaken, and A-Rod’s has played 4 under his. Chances are Zito will not pitch like he did in Oakland and A-Rod will stay around at least a 4-5 WAR average (If Healthy) for the reaminer of his contract. The Giatns got NO production from Zito, the Yankees have gotten fairly good prodution from A-Rod. Simply put as I said, THUS FAR, I’d take a productive A-Rod at $28 mil over a terrible Zito had $18.5 mil. (No need to responsd because I know what you’ll say next and I agree with it, you’d rather have Zito for 2 years than A-Rod for 6)
“If my analysis can’t be finished, then yours and no one else’s can either.”
that doesn’t make any sense. if we can’t do an analysis until a contract is over, then how do you know if a contract is good or bad when it is signed?
by measuring risk against potential reward, of course. it’s standard practice. and that’s why your analysis was unfinished and mine was not. all you did was talk about what already happened. you have to also account for what has been committed to for the future
”
that doesn’t make any sense. if we can’t do an analysis until a contract is over, then how do you know if a contract is good or bad when it is signed?”
You first stated (actually Wonderboy did) that A-Rod has the worst contract out of all of them, yet as you also said now, none have finished.
I’ll ask a simple question, how has A-Rod’s contract THUSFAR been worse than Zito’s?
it hasn’t
as i have said a few times, it’s the magnitude of the commitment going forward that dooms the a-rod contract. if they ended at the same time, his contract would easily be the best of the group
but when the other contracts end, he still has 5-6 years and ~$130M left to go – for his worst seasons
that’s what makes the difference
also
“chances are…a-rod will stay around at least 4-5 WAR average for the remainder of his contract”
is an absolutely absurd claim. he’s a 4-5 WAR player now. he won’t decline at all from age 36 to 42? you should stay away from vegas
Way to leave out the part where I said IF HEALTHY. He’s only been a 4-5 WAR player becuase he hasn’t been fully healthy. Well that’s not the full reason but that is a key reason why. He hasn’t played 140 games since 2007.
2009 – 5.2 WAR per 150 games
2010 – 4.2 WAR per 150 games
2011 – 6.3 WAR per 150 games
weighted average: 5.4 WAR per 150 games
so, according to you, if he were healthy, he would only decline .4 to 1.4 WAR over his age 36-42 seasons
madness. that would defy every aging curve that has ever existed
on top of that, he is injury prone already. so not only will he decline like every other baseball player in history, he may miss significant time along the way
Unfortunately you don’t have a clue what you’re talking about. A-Rod is overpaid, but those players would not have jobs on any major league team if they were not locked into their contracts. Rios, Hampton, Pavano, Igawa, Lugo, etc all also had worse contracts by far. Being overpaid by about $10m is not even remotely close to giving enormous contracts to players who might only receive minor league deals if not for their huge contracts. A-Rod is extremely productive, only had 1 really unhealthy year, will bring in tons of revenue as he goes for each HR milestone, and is just merely overpaid.
A-Rod was the best player in the game when he got that contract, just like Pujols. He won two MVPs and one world series while with the Yanks. Up until last year, when he got injured A-Rod had something like 13 years with 30HRs and 100 RBIs the most in MLB history. Most free agents aren’t worth the money they get.
Very true, and what’s crazy is that Pujols will be making over $100 million from the ages of 39-42.
Oh man.. Making sure I understand that.. But Rodriquez cold tag on yet another 5year deal worth 5/100 to NY when he turns 43? Only if he will drop his AAV and salary until then down to 20m? Are the Steinbrener’s losing it? They will get some relief now, but have they thought about the anchor he will be then and the animosity that contract and Rodriquez will give the fan base for years to come? HR record or not?
This will just mean they will be paying a useless player for 7-8+ seasons who probably isn’t even in the game anymore.
This is just a suggestion from a writer. He’s not saying to do another 5 years on top of his current contract but to re-work his contract where they tack on 1 more year so that the money is less and be under the luxury tax to pay both Cano and Granderson.
That was how understood it i *think*.. That is.. Not a 1 year deal, but another 5 year deal beginning in 2018?
It seemed friendly to Rodriquez in the LT and sort of if NY wanted to just get under the cap in the ST, but fan ire, if that 5 year deal is what I thought sherman was proposing? 2018-2022 for 5/100M, just to erase the bonuses and drop the AAV down to 20m until the original contact expires?
But then you handcuff yourself with 20m aav when he won’t even be playing
How about the Mets paying Bobby Bonilla deal!
You are right, then just looked and it’s not quite as bad as had thought.. 2m a year for 25 years… I actually thought it was 4m a year over 20…
Thanks for the reminder of another NY team making one of those nice, thoughtful contracts however.. i always like being reminded of conscientious payroll expenditures.
If he retires wont that money disappear?
Anyone read the Red Sox article and wondered where is John Maine? I remember when he signed they considered him to have a legitimate shot to make the bullpen, and now he isn’t even listed as an NRI. He is currently on Pawtucket’s roster, so I’m guessing he never got an invite to big league camp?
Extending Cano and Granderson now would not help at all. They are on very team-friendly contracts right now, $13mil and $15mil. The best option to handle both players would be to offer them back-loaded contracts similar to Werth and Pujol’s contract.
Back-loading a contract doesn’t do anything for luxury tax purposes. What’s counted against the tax is the AAV of the total contract. So, considering that both players are likely to have a higher AAVs on their next contracts than what they are making this year, it would make some sense to extend them now, because it would help the Yankees get under 189MM by 2014.
Cashman will do the right thing, the Yanks have had the same stability in their line up for years. They don’t have many weak spots!