Archives for April 2012

The cutoff for super two players after the 2012 season will be two years and 134 days of service time, according to preliminary internal studies by CAA (Twitter link). A year ago this time the agency correctly anticipated that the 2011 cutoff would be two years and 146 days of service time.

This would be good news for players such as Josh Thole, Chris Johnson, Michael Saunders, Tyler Colvin, Sam Fuld, Esmil Rogers, Drew Storen and Mark Melancon. They'll project as super twos this coming offseason, assuming they accrue a full year of service in 2012 and the CAA projection is accurate.

Super two status entitles certain players to four years of arbitration eligibility, rather than the usual three. In other words, they'll earn more than their peers. Under baseball's new collective bargaining agreement, 22% of players qualify as super twos. This represents an increase from 17% and helps explain why the cutoff is lower than it was a year ago.

Jonathan Lucroy would qualify as a super two if the cutoff falls at 2.134. If he qualifies, he'll earn an additional $2MM over the course of the extension he recently signed. 

The following players will finish the season with less than two years and 134 days of service time: Carlos Santana, Justin Smoak, Danny Valencia, Michael Brantley, Jordan Schafer, Giancarlo Stanton, Madison Bumgarner, Stephen Strasburg, Daniel Hudson, Dan Runzler, Andrew Cashner and Alexi Ogando. They don't project as super twos, so their teams may only have to worry about going through the arbitration process three times.

I looked ahead to some upcoming first-time arbitration eligible players earlier in the year.

No right-handed pitcher had surpassed the $105MM contract that Kevin Brown signed in 1998 until this week, when the Giants locked up one of the National League’s best starters. Now that Brown’s contract has been erased from the books, current players hold the record for every position. Let’s check in on the biggest deals in baseball history by position:

• Right-handed pitcher: Matt Cain signed for five years and $112.5MM in April, 2012.
• Left-handed pitcher: C.C. Sabathia signed for seven years and $161MM in December, 2008.
• Relief pitcher: Jonathan Papelbon signed for four years and $50MM in November, 2011.
• Catcher: Joe Mauer signed for eight years and $184MM in March, 2010.
• First base: Albert Pujols signed for ten years and $240MM in December, 2011.
• Second base: Chase Utley signed for seven years and $85MM in January, 2007.
• Third base: Alex Rodriguez signed for ten years and $275MM in December, 2007.
• Shortstop: Alex Rodriguez signed for ten years and $252MM in December, 2000.
• Outfield: Manny Ramirez signed for eight years and $160MM in December, 2000. Matt Kemp signed for eight years and $160MM in November, 2011.