Good afternoon! Hope everyone enjoyed the weekend. I'll get going at 3pm CT, but as always, feel free to send in some questions ahead of time.
Hey all! Sorry for the delay
Lot of news happening right now as well.
Tony
If Sonny Gray agreed to waive his NTC, what could the Cardinals expect to get in return? How underwater is his contract? Thanks!
Steve Adams
I don't really think there's any surplus value there. You can say there's no such thing as a bad one-year deal, but Gray is being paid $35MM next year and has a $5MM buyout on a 2027 option. Is he getting $40MM if he goes to the open market and says he'll only sign a one-year deal? I doubt that. Even if you think it's not that much of an overpay, there's no excess value. I think they'd probably have to cover part of the salary to get anything of real note.
thebeatlesshow
OK, Steve, you're the Astros. Next year, do you put Issac Parades at 2nd and move Altuve to Left Field? Move Parades to left field? Move Parades to DH and play Yordan to left...or just trade Parades? What would you do?
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Darragh's off today so I'll have to wrap this up right around 4:00 Central to move to news coverage. Let's get going
RAGBRAI
How do you see Brewers SP lining up in a five game series?
Does MeGill make it back to Milwaukee next week?
Anthony Franco
On the rotation: Peralta, Woodruff, Priester, Q with Misiorwoski available in relief (especially on Quintana's start when they'll have a really quick hook)
Pat Murphy said that Megill threw a bullpen yesterday. Believe Adam McCalvy reported that they're targeting the 16th (beginning of the Angels series) for his return
RoxTalks
Thoughts on the Valdez-Salazar situation?
Anthony Franco
I'm skeptical that Framber deliberately crossed up his own catcher so he could nail him in the chest, but not showing any level of concern after it happened because you're pissed you just gave up a grand slam is a bad look
Salazar did his best postgame to downplay it, as did Joe Espada. I don't think it matters much for the Astros' season but it doesn't reflect well on Valdez even if it is a one-off situation and I imagine he'll have to answer questions about it from some teams when he gets to free agency
?
How/why is Roki Sasaki so bad? I know he's hurt but he has been equally as awful in OKC
Anthony Franco
The command is not good and I think most people (myself included) under appreciated how much of a problem his fastball shape -- very low spin that leads it to play below its velocity at the top of the strike zone -- would be an issue. That's easier to get away with when he's pumping 98-101 as he was for most of his time in Japan than it is at 95-96
He's still talented and I think there's a chance he can succeed the way Hurston Waldrep is for Atlanta by leaning so heavily on the split, but he's more of a project than I expected. Obviously doesn't help that he's been working with diminished stuff while fighting shoulder problems the whole time
Safeco Field Redux
I'm curious: How often do you think game announcers err when thy call a pitch; that is, is what they identify as a slider actually a sweeper or even a curve? And while I'm here, does a knuckle curve act differently than a standard curve?
Anthony Franco
Yeah I think this happens all the time. Backup sliders can look like changeups, breaking pitches blend together so much that it's very difficult to differentiate slider vs. sweeper or curve unless the pitcher's throwing them at a 4-5 MPH velocity differential
A lot of times a pitcher will call a breaking ball something different than the pitch classification systems will. "Sweeper" vs. slider wasn't even really in the lexicon until a couple years ago when Statcast tried to get more granular in splitting the deGrom slider from the 81 MPH pitch that you'll get from a low-slot lefty specialist
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Greetings all! Bit of an impromptu chat this week since my schedule didn’t really allow for one on Tuesday
Guards Nation
If the guardians lose Clase and Ortiz, will they free up payroll and if they do, can you envision them using the space to go out and get a high level bat or arm?
Steve Adams
Ortiz isn’t on a guaranteed contract, so there wouldn’t be any payroll savings. Clase’s contract had a pretty modest $6MM guarantee in 2026. They’d be spared that $6MM and the $2MM buyout on his 2027 option, which counts as guaranteed money).
That’s all if they’re suspended/banned, of course, and we have no good way of knowing that yet. Regardless, an extra $6-8MM of payroll space next year isn’t going to give them any sort of substantial savings or embolden them to sign a big-name free agent.
In general, if you’re hoping for Cleveland to sign marquee free agents, you’re probably setting yourself up for a disappointment. Not trying to sound insulting by any means — that’s just reality.
Kevin
Chances that Kim will rework deal with Braves to add on one or two more years?
Steve Adams
I don’t see why he’d sign a one-year extension when his value is at a low point. I expect him to just play out the 2026 season as Atlanta’s everyday shortstop and try again. He’d hit the market ahead of his age-31 season, which is still young enough to land a nice multi-year deal (4-5 years) if he can bounce back in ’26
The Pirates outlook discussed on this week’s podcast was bleak. Any chance of them going after Mullins or Grisham or will they have to settle for guys like Lane Thomas and Harrison Bader?
Steve Adams
Honestly, I’d be surprised if they even signed Bader, who I think has earned himself at least a two-year deal. Lane Thomas, Max Kepler, Chas McCormick, etc. all feel more plausible.
I do think it was perhaps encouraging that Ben Cherington told Darragh McDonald on our podcast the week prior that there’s some urgency, but I don’t envision Bob Nutting green-lighting the type of three- or four-year deal it might take to get Grisham. If Mullins is amenable to a pillow deal or a two-year deal under $30MM, I guess I can kind of see it, but I don’t find that likely.
Bucs should be looking at guys with more offensive ceiling than Bader, Thomas, Kepler, etc. anyhow. If they’re going to keep rolling on the one-year deal track, I’d say roll the dice on a Conforto rebound — but I think they should just be amenable to trading some pitching for controllable young hitters.
Dan
The starters for the Jays playoff rotation are….
Steve Adams
Bieber, Gausman, Scherzer — health-permitting
Reds GM
Who are some notable non tender candidates this winter? Garcia, Stephenson, India?
Steve Adams
Assuming that’s Luis Garcia in D.C., yeah, all three of them are NT candidates. Ryan Mountcastle, Trevor Larnach, Adolis Garcia, Jonah Heim all come to mind as well.
ChiSoxFan
Is the White Sox offense pretty set for next season? I can only see them adding a fourth outfielder.
Steve Adams
There’s enough uncertainty with Mead, Vargas, Meidroth and Montgomery that I think they ought to be pretty open to bringing in an infielder. I like Mike Tauchman, but I wouldn’t count on him as a regular in the OF, and you’ve got plenty of injury concern with Robert, so I think adding a semi-regular OF makes good sense as well.
One of the Achilles heels of the White Sox, even before their young core fell apart, was that there was never any depth beyond the starting group. And once all those guys got hurt (seemingly every year), the lineup was a trainwreck.
John
Did the Orioles find a gem in Jeremiah Jackson? 2nd round pick in 2018, but he looks like he’s part of this teams future.
Steve Adams
I don’t think he’s a regular, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be a decent piece of the bench. He can play multiple spots and has average-ish speed, and the contact skills are solid enough it seems. But he’s too free a swinger, doesn’t walk much and is only sitting on his current rate stats because nearly 40% of his balls in play have turned into hits (.395 BABIP). That’s not going to be sustainable, particularly not with a 52% ground-ball rate.
So… maybe some of both? I’d lean more toward him being an up-and-down bench/depth guy, but there’s value to that, and the cost of acquisition was … well. Nothing. He signed a minor league deal. That’s a nice pickup.
John
Thoughts on Framber and his upcoming free agency?
Steve Adams
I understand that the cross-up is weighing heavily on the minds of Astros fans, but I don’t think it’s going to matter. Even if it was intentional — or if it was accidental and he just didn’t care — he’s the most consistent and arguably most talented starter on the market.
Manny Machado got $300MM after publicly declaring “I’m not Johnny Hustle” when asked why he didn’t run out a grounder in the postseason and when he appeared to deliberately spike Jesus Aguilar.
The top guys get paid. Framber is a legitimate No. 1/2 arm.
That’s “No. 1 or No.2 arm” … not “half an arm” haha
Jeff F
Who are you thinking of in terms of a sneaky good add for #4 or #5 free agent starter during the off season?
Steve Adams
I don’t know if Zach Eflin is “sneaky,” but he’s better than a fourth starter when healthy and his price will be down coming off all the injuries. Griffin Canning looked pretty darn good in Queens before his injury.
Jays fan
Prediction on contract for Bo Bichette this offseason? Do you think he stays at SS for any new team, or move to 2B or 3B to open up more options for signing?
Steve Adams
There aren’t a ton of SS-needy teams I see that’ll be willing to spend the ~$200MM+ contract Bichette is hitting his way into, but injuries, trades, other circumstances could change that. I think Bichette would be wise to do what Willy Adames did straightaway last winter — broadcast a willingness to play other positions even if his heart is set on shortstop. The Giants were one of the only clear SS options for Adames, but he probably helped his market by building some interest as a 2B/3B option elsewhere.
Re-signing in Toronto is of course a possibility, and I could see the Tigers, Phillies, Yankees and a few others in the mix, especially if he’s marketing himself as a guy who’ll play anywhere.
Greg Allen Craig
Where is Justin Verlander going to pitch in 2026 since he says that he plans to?
Steve Adams
There will be plenty of teams willing to give Verlander a one-year deal. Still sitting 94 mph. 4.29 ERA/4.37 SIERA. K% only a tick below average, good command, average swinging-strike rate.
There’s no real way to predict where that’ll be, but I think any contender with a short-term need in the rotation could work. Return to SF or else the Jays, Red Sox, Orioles, Tigers, Rangers, Cubs … Verlander for a year and $12MM or so ought to intrigue plenty of clubs
Taeko
Can we say SF definitely won the Devers trade at this point? Hicks is barely serviceable for Bosox, Tibbs III was flipped to the Dodgers for nearly nothing, and Harrison is only just starting at the majors in September after struggling more at AAA. Meanwhile Devers has finally settled down and has been racking for SF and has provided a much needed power bat in a lineup that was struggling for runs. Was the clubhouse toxicity that bad in Boston?
Steve Adams
I don’t think we need to assign a winner/loser, and I don’t think we can until we see how Harrison pans out or what they do with the cost savings.
I didn’t like Boston’s return at all, and I like it less now that they traded Tibbs for two months of Dustin May, which was one of the biggest head-scratchers of the deadline.
But they control Harrison for another half decade. It’s totally feasible that he develops into a consistent rotation option for him, and they reallocate a chunk of that Devers money to a long-term deal for another player.
There’s a huge obsession among fans with winning/losing trades, but the calculus as to who “won” or “lost” changes wildly from year to year or even month to month.
Ask an Orioles fan from May who “won” Stowers/Norby for Trevor Rogers, and then ask them three months later, when Rogers has a 1.30 ERA in 15 MLB starts.
Dan
Ranger Suarez is not an ace, has a history of back problems and tends to fade in the second half. Still, despite the low velocity he avoids hard contact and has consistently had #2 starter results when healthy.
Steve Adams
I agree with all of this and think someone will give him $100MM as a result of it.
Tony B
Would a new power bat or new coaching staff benefit the Giants more?
Steve Adams
Kyle Tucker or Bo Bichette (2B) helps more than a new coach(es)
A fan
Do you expect Chaim Bloom to blow things up in STL or mostly stay the course that Mozeliak has laid out for him? Is a mini overhaul on the horizon?
Steve Adams
I think there’s a good chance they move on from some of the Mozeliak-era prospects who’ve yet to really pan out. Nolan Gorman, Jordan Walker, etc.
Winn/Wetherholt is a pair to build around. Liberatore and McGreevy will get rotation looks next year. But I imagine they’ll try to trade Sonny Gray and Nolan Arenado again.
In general, I think there’ll be a fair bit of turnover on next year’s roster. I find the whole slow rollout a bit confounding. If you want Bloom to take over, let him take over. But based on reporting and asking people closer to the situation, it seems like Mozeliak has retained all final say on baseball ops and roster decisions while Bloom has been focused on overhauling the player development department. It just feels a little clumsy, though I’m certainly sensitive to the fact that overhauling an entire player dev operation and managing the day-to-day of a whole organization from the very top seat is a lot (too much) to ask of one guy.
I don’t see why they didn’t just name Bloom an AGM or SVP or whatever, then announce the role changes after the season, but maybe that’d just have entailed the exact same setup with less transparency.
At any rate, weird year for the Cardinals
Kyle Tucker
Will the Red Sox be a favorite to land me with all that left over Devers money? Would you rather have Devers or Tucker next year if you’re the Sox?
Who gets me next year?
Steve Adams
Pitching and third base will (or should) be a bigger focus. They can run with Duran/Rafaela/Anthony in the outfield for the foreseeable future.
I’ll probably be wrong about who signs Tucker when I make my final pick in our free agent contest, but if I’m forced to make a pick right now, the Giants get my bet.
Captain Dunsel
The Phillies signed Walker Buehler to a minor league contract after he was released by the Red Sox. Does that minor league deal provide the Red Sox with any salary relief or does he need to be called up first? Thanks.
Steve Adams
The Phillies only owe Buehler the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the MLB roster. If he gets called up, that prorated minimum salary will be subtracted from what Boston owes. Otherwise, the Sox are on the hook for everything
Negligible, if any, savings.
Boomington
Why have the Dodgers not played up to expectation? Lackluster bullpen?
Steve Adams
I’d argue that it’s because expectations were comically high and unrealistic to begin with.
During spring training, when so many fans had Dodger fatigue, I recall many participants in these chats assuming 110 wins was a lock. One literally said the league needed a salary cap because as presently constructed, the Dodgers wouldn’t lose three games in a row at any point this season.
They made a bunch of big moves, yes. They have a great core, yes. They also have a ton of injury risk on the roster — some by design, since they can afford to have a huge margin for error in that regard — and are inherently subject to the randomness of baseball
Mavis staples
How much will Kyle schwarber get and how will the Phillies handle free agency this offseason?
Steve Adams
I’ve come around on him getting four years and $120-130MM, and I don’t think like 5/140 is even off the table. Elite offensive production, consistently so, and every team is in love with the person/teammate/leader.
SilverSlugs
What do you think of the Braves picking up Kim and Fraley? Seems smart. You now have SS and the 4th outfielder covered next year. Now all AA has to do is focus on the bullpen and potentially the starting rotation
Steve Adams
In a vacuum, either is fine. I find Anthopoulos’ repeated efforts to plug holes on his roster by just taking on bad money from other teams interesting, though. He ate the entire Raisel Iglesias contract (which worked). He took on all of Jorge Soler’s deal (oops, but the Angels helped out there). He took on all of Mark Melancon several years ago. He paid $30MM+ to buy Jarred Kelenic from Seattle (oops).
I don’t think it’s inherently bad, to be clear, but no other GM/president of baseball operations navigates like this.
I wouldn’t necessarily assume Fraley is tendered a contract, but I don’t mind the move either way.
Guest
It seems like CES is forgotten man in Cincinnati. Is there still room for him on that roster?
Steve Adams
I’ve never been a big CES guy. Power-over-hit with minimal defensive value and sub-par walk rates who’s on the short side of a 1B platoon. He still has options left and is only 25, so they’ll probably hang onto him through the offseason, but I’m not bullish on the long-term outlook, whether it be in Cincinnati or elsewhere.
Mr Met
Who was your favorite player when you were a kid?
Steve Adams
I was born in the mid-80s and grew up in Minnesota, so Kent Hrbek, Kirby Puckett and — because of course — Ken Griffey Jr.
Dad’s side of the family is from Chicago so I always enjoyed Ryne Sandberg, Shawon Dunston and Andre Dawson.
And Chipper and Andruw a bit later. Jim Thome, too.
I guess I had quite a few, haha.
Skenes
Would you trade Paul Skenes for Nick Kurtz?
Steve Adams
Nope
Guest
Will the Mariners make the postseason?
Steve Adams
I still think so yeah
RookTaker23
Is Schwarber a lock to sign the largest contract of anyone who was once non-tendered?
Steve Adams
Not even a lock to sign the biggest contract of a former NT’ed player this offseason! Bellinger should finally get a nice long-term deal. I’d probably take Schwarber to get the larger deal, but not by much. And if you told me right now Bellinger gets like 5/135 and Schwarber 4/126, I wouldn’t really bat an eye.
Darragh McDonald
Carlos Rodon was non-tendered and got 162MM.
Steve Adams
Darragh from the top rope
And I checked, and yes, that was actually him — not someone just using his name haha
Yankee Pinstripes or Dodger Blue
Munetaka Murakami?
Steve Adams
Can I choose neither? I can see both having interest, but neither has a massive corner infield need. Muncy has a cheap option, plus the Dodgers have Freeland. The Yankees traded for McMahon and have Rice for 1B.
Padres, Mariners, Red Sox… can never rule out a surprise team on a 25-year-old with 80 power, even if they don’t have a history of spending heavy in the NPB market (or in free agency in general)
FishFam
What odds would you give the Marlins to make the playoffs next year? Seems like a solid young team with some really promising young pitchers
Steve Adams
The only guys in the lineup I see as real regulars are Stowers, Marsee, maybe Edwards. I guess Agustin Ramirez if he can play a passable 1B, but even then, the lack of OBP is going to drag his value down pretty heavily. Maybe Joe Mack can handle C next year, but that’s a big if.
Plenty of upside on the pitching staff but even more injury risk. Eury, Sandy, Weathers, Cabrera, Meyer, Garrett all have major injuries in recent years.
Probably not the rosy outlook you were hoping for, haha, sorry. I think next year is too soon, but hey, they made the playoffs in 2023 despite having a roster I didn’t love.
I’ve got to call it for the week. Anthony will have a chat with Front Office subscribers tomorrow. I’m on X @Adams_Steve and Bluesky @adams-steve.bsky.social.
If you want more opinions from the MLBTR team, you can learn about our Front Office subscription package and sign up here. In addition to ad-free viewing on the site and in the app, you’ll get weekly analysis/opinion columns from Anthony Franco and myself, a weekly mailbag column from Tim Dierkes, weekly fantasy baseball chats and columns with Nicklaus Gaut, weekly subscriber-only chats with Anthony and with me (where your odds of getting a question answered are much, much higher), extra insight from Darragh McDonald, access to our Contract Tracker (a vital offseason resource) and our Agency Database, our GM Tracker and more.
Am I tempting fate by starting a live chat when teams could very easily still be making moves on the eve of the roster expansion? I sure am! What might be an interrupted edition of the Weekend Chat begins now!
Tigers
Odds Kevin McGonigle gets called up tomorrow?
Mark P
Basically zero. The Tigers’ GM already said it isn’t happening, and calling McGonigle up past Triple-A entirely doesn’t seem realistic.
bmcferren
Ketel Marte the top target to bat cleanup for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2026?
Mark P
I find it unlikely that Marte will be dealt anywhere, let alone to a Pittsburgh team that will find his contract too pricey
Mike Trout
Poll: Do I get to 400 HR’s this season?
Mark P
He only has 20, so Trout surely won’t hit 380 home runs in just a month. Not even Judge or Jakob Marsee could do that.
Real answer: Trout has 398 career homers, so despite the major slump he’s currently in, he’ll surely go yard twice more before the year is out.
Padres and Preller
Padres look to be going with what they have. SS and starting pitching huge holes and no moves when better options available. Has ownership told AJ to go with what he had and no more $ available for roster improvement?
Mark P
There’s still some time for Preller to add a player (and interrupt my chat) before the 11pm CT deadline, and he could still make adds after today for players who just wouldn’t be playoff-eligible.
Kiner-Falefa really seemed like the kind of player that would be a good fit in San Diego, however. Would’ve been an easy fit into shortstop with Bogaerts out.
romorr
So the Orioles just signed Basallo, and now have a hot Trevor Rogers to consider. What does that contract look like at the end of the year?
Mark P
Rogers is eligible for free agency after the 2026 season, making him a very interesting extension candidate for Baltimore. Don’t forget — Rogers pitched poorly and battled injuries from 2022-24, making his impressive numbers this year all the more spectacular.
This could make Rogers more open to signing a long-term deal and locking in some money now while his value is at its highest. He might have an eye towards a very lucrative free agent deal next offseason, but the possibility of a lockout could make Rogers prefer getting some security now rather than deal with the added obstacle of labor unrest when he’s a free agent.
Now that the O’s have finally gotten the ball rolling on contract extensions, it opens up a whole new line of intriguing possibilities for future expenditures.
Feels like they have run in them. Only 5 back. Your thoughts?
Mark P
Interestingly, the Giants only play four more teams for the rest of the season…..two series each against the Dodgers, D’Backs, Rockies, and Cardinals.
Those extra games against Colorado in particular are a good chance to make up ground, but realistically, the Giants are probably too far out
Drew
Will the Nats come to regret not trading Gore before the deadline?
Mark P
Gore could be traded this winter for just as much if not more than he would’ve gotten at the deadline, unless this shoulder problem ends up being something serious (and apparently the MRI was clean). So I don’t think there was any particular rush for the Nats to make a move last month.
tigertownBob
With a little better season this year should the Tigers try to move Tork this offseason?
Mark P
That might a creative sell-high move for Detroit. As much as Torkelson has hit well for the bulk of the year, it ultimately depends on whether or not the front office sees him as someone who can still reach a higher level, or if this might be a peak.
Don’t forget that if you trade Tork, then that’s a lot of hitting you need to replace in a lineup that is also losing Torres to free agency.
Natitude
With news of Susana being pulled from a start today due to the dreaded triceps soreness, (see Travis Sykora) is it fair to say that the Nationals front office should punt on 2026 and focus on being competitive in 2027 and beyond? Zero pitching depth for this poverty franchise right now and no immediate help on the way.
Mark P
Regardless of what happens with Susana, it already seemed like the Nats would be treading water next year. A new PBO/GM will likely take a year to evaluate things and see what the organization has before deciding how to approach a return to contention.
Reds fan
Stewart being called a bit too late to provide the offensive spark the reds desperately needed over a week ago. Held down for some dumb financial/playing time reason?
Mark P
The PPI factor was surely on the Reds’ minds to some extent, but don’t forget that Stewart didn’t even make his Triple-A debut until after the All-Star break. It’s understandable how a team would want to give a good prospect some real run at Triple-A before giving him the extra challenge of the big leagues
Delman
Buehler will be joining the Phillies rotation after 1 AAA start. Expectations?
Mark P
Not much. His ultimate role will be as a bullpen arm, if that
Al Kaline Battery
Watching the Royal play the Tigers this weekend, they have a pretty good team . What do they need to get to the next level?.The outfield still seems like the week point.
Mark P
Yaz has been hitting like his grandfather since the trade, so that’s at least one outfield hole that has been filled. But long-term, the outfield should certainly still be the Royals’ priority this winter.
Bobby Cox
Philly going to miss wheeler in post season
Mark P
Absolutely. I don’t want to say losing Wheeler ends the Phillies’ chances since their team is still so good, but I can’t think of many examples of a club losing their best pitcher a month before the playoffs and still winning it all.
Eric
Do you think Bill Schmidt and Warren Schaffer are back next year as GM and as manager? Definitely not the right people for the job in Colorado.
Mark P
Because it’s the Rockies, my default view is to assume both will return. Until ownership actually makes a seismic change like bringing someone in from outside the organization, I’ll believe that the Rox will stick with the status quo.
Rangers
What is best case for Corey Seager? Comes back with 1 week left in season?
Mark P
It’s tricky since an appendectomy is the kind of thing that doesn’t come with a set timeline. Seager is probably likely to try and push it to come back sooner than later if the Rangers remain in contention.
Corbin Carroll Fan Club
Should AZ actually be excited about Blaze Alexander & Ryne Nelson?
Mark P
Nelson in particular looks like a rotation guy going forward, so yes. Alexander looks like a good multi-position bench guy, even if presumably Arizona’s infield will still be crowded in the club’s ideal scenario of Lawlar becoming an everyday 3B
JeffyM
Are you surprised the Rangers didn’t put their bullpen arms on waivers? Or is there a chance guys were put on waivers and could be claimed before 11 that we don’t know about yet?
Mark P
It’s possible we don’t know of some moves that might yet happen, but Texas is on a roll right now. They might’ve been more aggressive in trying to cut salary if a wild card spot wasn’t still such a distinct possibility.
White Sox Fan
Well, looks like we’re still gonna hold the record for most modern day loses
Mark P
Noted White Sox fan Pope Leo can’t work miracles this quickly
Touch ‘Em All
Do you think the Jays can hold on to the division, and do you trust their bullpen in the playoffs?
Mark P
No and no. I think Boston’s got more going for them right now, including at least one reliever in Chapman who is on the roll of his career. The Jays’ bullpen is almost en masse in a slump right now, either due to overwork or the league just getting a book on some of these guys.
It’s the nature of relief pitching that the Jays pen could suddenly snap back to form, but I have my doubts
Beat Em Bucs!!!
What can you see the Pirates doing this offseason? They need bats and have a surplus of good young pitching. I would like to see them add two bats to their lineup.
Mark P
As much as “you can never have too much pitching” applies, dealing a young arm for a young up-and-coming bat makes a ton of sense for the Pirates. I agree that they need multiple hitters to help get things turned around, and if ownership isn’t going to spend in free agency, then the front office has to be more aggressive on the trade front.
Jrmomo1000
Do you think marmol will be the cardinal manager next year
Mark P
2026 is the last guaranteed season of Marmol’s contract, so the Cards would be eating just one year of money in the event of a managerial change. Allowing Bloom to pick his own manager would make sense with Bloom fully taking over the front office, and Bloom might welcome this flexibility since he basically inherited Alex Cora in Boston.
Still Miller Park
Does this Brewers team have what it takes to win it all?
Mark P
Absolutely. The Brewers are a scary opponent for anyone in October.
Dodgers fan
The bullpen is scaring me what do you think
Mark P
It’s certainly a concern, but the Dodgers seem to go into October every year with a patchwork pitching staff but have still made it work with two titles in five years.
Mill Badlock
Can we now consider Henry Davis a complete 1/1 bust? I see no hope for improvement at the plate.
Mark P
For the “what should the Pirates do this winter” question earlier, the answer maybe should’ve been an overhaul of their hitting development strategies.
Davis has a 57 wRC+ over 610 career PA, or a little more than the equivalent of one full MLB season. While it’s early to write him off entirely, there haven’t been many or any flashes that Davis is close to breaking out, so that’s a very troubling lack of progress for a player that (as a 1-1 pick) had to be a key building block in a rebuild.
Peter Bendix
What happen to the Mets this weekend? Are the Marlins that good or the Mets are so bad?
Mark P
The Mets’ pitching is so inconsistent that they’re always prone to a rough series, or a rough week, or several weeks. The Mets’ biggest plus right now is that so many other NL teams are kind of treading water, so New York is still in a wild card spot
Nick Flack
do you think the cardinals should move on from arenado?
Mark P
They should’ve moved on last winter, and I suspect the front office is still shaking their head of the chain of events that led Arenado to reject that deal to Houston.
Going forward, it’s hard to see much of a trade market for Arenado at all given his salary and how his offense has completely fallen off the table this season.
Jackson
Will the Phillies fix their outfield come the offseason and 2026? Bader is an improvement, but he’s a rental. It’s just getting old watching the same lackluster platoons play out year after year
Mark P
Crawford’s on the horizon, and it would help the Phillies a ton if he’s able to be a productive rookie from the jump. Kepler obviously isn’t returning and Bader is a BA, and I wonder if the Phils might try to explore any kind of “unwelcome contract swap” for Castellanos
The trouble is that the Phils have a lot of money invested elsewhere in the roster, so there’s less to spend on a big splashy outfield move. Now that being said, I won’t rule the Phillies out on Kyle Tucker or someone since that’s just how this team rolls, but to some extent Dombrowski’s hands are a little tied in terms of obvious ways to help the outfield
Bregman
What are you thinking? 1) He opts out, becomes a free agent and signs elsewhere? 2) He opts in & plays another year under his current deal? 3) He signs an extension?.
Mark P
My guess is that he signs an extension to remain in Boston, either before free agency opens or just after the market opens.
There’s no way he opts in, and there seems to be enough mutual admiration between him and the Sox that I suspect both sides want to make a deal happen
Bobby Cox
Braves will pick up Albies option? I mean numbers are padded by last month but he has 0 range arm but 2nd market is weak.
Mark P
Albies’ club option for 2026 is worth $7MM, but with a $4MM buyout. So the difference of just $3MM will almost certainly make Atlanta exercise the option, even if there’s a chance Albies is then traded elsewhere
I don’t know’s on 3rd
Why don’t the Phillies have to pick up all of Buehlers contract?
Mark P
When a team releases a player, they are responsible for the rest of any salary owed. A new team is responsible for just the prorated portion of the MLB minimum salary, subtracted from the remaining overall salary left on the contract (in Buehler’s case, $3.4MM or so).
Dave D
I understand why they reduced the roster size in September, but 28 seems small Any discussion of may be expanding to maybe 30 at least ?
Mark P
I’m sure the MLBPA wouldn’t mind having more jobs available for a month. But, I think having having 30 roster spots still gets into the “competitive advantage or disadvantage during pennant races” territory the league and union looked to eliminate when cutting September rosters down from 40.
Brewers Fan
At what point does the evaluation of a particular player trait change? Asking re Bruce Turang, whose 40 power grade is looking ridiculous at the moment
Mark P
I dunno who this Bruce Turang guy is, but Brice Turang has been on an absolute scorcher for the last month. Don’t be surprised if/when Turang wins NL Player of the Month for August.
different brewer fan
yeah and can we adjust his fielding grade?
Mark P
DRS still has him at +9, but even that’s down from +22 last year. I’m not sure I’ve watched the Brewers enough to make an eye test evaluation, but put it his way, if you’re a Milwaukee supporter…..you’re pretty happily taking this better-hitting version of Turang, right?
Brian
Do the M’s call up Harry Ford in September? With Raleigh not going anywhere, what do you think of his future in Seattle?
Mark P
I’m on record as predicting Ford to have been a deadline trade piece, so I was a touch surprised to see him stay put. Then again, teams were loath to move big prospects in general midseason, so maybe we’ll need to wait until the winter to see Ford dealt, since I still feel he’s now an expendable piece.
Bobby Cox
Where does Nick Allen rate this season fielding had to be top 5. Can’t hit at all, I would rather Raffy Belliard at plate.
Mark P
Allen’s defensive metrics are elite. He should be at the very least a Gold Glove finalist, and probably a winner.
Having a fantastic defensive shortstop who can’t hit isn’t really an issue if the rest of your lineup can pick up the slack. Allen’s lack of offense has been magnified the fact that so many other Braves hitters struggled for much of the year, but if the front office improves elsewhere, I can see AA standing pat with Allen as the starter.
Santana
Is picking up Carlos Santana a difference maker for the Cubs? Could he help them get to the series?
Mark P
It’s more of a talent floor raise over Turner
Andy
It seems like alot more players are getting released than in years past. Is this because teams are trying to save some prorated salary?
Mark P
Don’t forget that the rules were changed a few years ago concerning August trades. So since teams can no longer move most players after the deadline, you’re seeing more releases or waiver situations as teams try to clear roster space (and save money)
Halos
Do you think the Angels will bring back Ron Washington next year, make Ray Montgomery the manager or will they go look elsewhere for a manager?
Mark P
Wash’s health is the biggest factor, so hopefully is given full clearance from his doctors. The Angels probably exercise his option year and bring Washington back for at least one more year.
Billington
Chandler Simpson leads league in SB and also caught SB??
Mark P
Caballero leads in steals, but Simpson is the leader in CS. This isn’t that surprising to see Simpson so high in both categories given that he’s such a baserunning specialist with elite speed.
rusty
With Wheeler’s move to IL is Painter’s call up coming soon?
Mark P
Painter hasn’t pitched great at Triple-A, so it seems like the Buehler signing was in part the Phillies way of adding a rotation option and lessening the pressure on Painter to even be part of the MLB picture this year
I’d be surprised if Painter wasn’t called up at all for at least a cup of coffee in the majors, but I don’t see him getting any major role on the roster (or in a playoff roster)
Realignment
what do you think is more likely, 8 divisions of 4 teams, or 4 divisions of 8?
Mark P
It depends on how the geography works out with two expansion cities, plus any lingering possibility that the Rays or A’s might be playing elsewhere than Tampa/St. Pete or in Vegas.
I’d probably prefer four divisions of eight just to add more cache to being a division championship. Yet the league may prefer more divisions and fewer wild card teams, even if some of the wild card clubs’ records will inevitably top some division winners more often than not
Hungry
What’s for supper?
Mark P
I haven’t eaten since lunch, since that flurry of transactions earlier kept me busy on the site. Post-chat, I might have to hit the fridge for a snack.
Mike DeBartolo
Why on Earth would I want to trade Mackenzie Gore?
Mark P
You might not want to, but the next Nationals PBO might be open to the idea.
If you don’t think Gore (a Scott Boras client) is a long-term candidate to stay in Washington and 2026 is another rebuild year anyway, than there’s some merit to the idea of selling high on Gore in a trade this offseason.
Al Kaline Battery
I know you guys did a poll this week on regional realignment if the league expands. What are your personal feelings on the subject?
Mark P
There is so much tradition within the AL/NL that I want to see that preserved, rather than the weirdness of a “West League” and “East League.” You can rework the geography within the current league alignments and incorporate expansion teams into the mix, but I want to see the AL and NL groupings generally remain intact.
Then again, as a Jays fan, my main priority in any alignment would be to see the Blue Jays get out of any division with the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays. So if this means the Jays in the NL, bring it on! 🙂
Lou Brown
Mark, I always ask of you think Trout really has 6 years left in him/will play out his contract…And you never wanna comment..I get that you don’t wanna jinx the man, but come on! Whadaya think??
Mark P
I doubt Trout would walk away from a year or two of guaranteed money and retire early, but only he knows the state of his body, or how much longer he wants to keep playing. Since this is shaping up as one of his healthiest seasons in some time, if anything, you’d think Trout might have more confidence in his ability to stay on the field
O Brother Where Cart Now
Is Carter Jensen is, or is Carter Jensen ain’t, a long term glove option behind the plate versus another 1B/DH bat?
Mark P
The scouting reports seem to think his glovework is pretty good, so there’s no immediate to reason to think that Jensen can’t stick as a catcher.
Whether he’s the heir apparent to Salvy remains to be seen, in no small part because Blake Mitchell might ultimately have that role. It gives the Royals some interesting options for the future once Perez decides to hang it up.
What to do with Marcus Semien
I know Marcus Semien is a fan favorite for his hustle, defense and durability. However he is clearly in decline and not worth his contract which was definitely a Scotty B special. Do you think the Rangers could get him to agree to a restructuring or pay cut and assuming that’s a no, is it worth eating a chunk of his salary to get a couple of mid to lower level prospects and move on?
Mark P
A restructure is clearly a no. Semien is owed $72MM from 2026-28, and other teams are just as aware of Semien’s offensive dropoff, so the Rangers would have to eat a big chunk of that contract in the event of a trade.
Barring some kind of bad contract swap, all the Rangers can really do with Semien is hope that he rediscovers his old form at the plate. This seems like an odd suggestion for a player who is still a very good defender, but perhaps some DH days to help keep him fresher might help? It could be that Semien’s durability is a bit of a hindrance at this point, and a few more breaks might help him re-adjust.
Reds country
will Sal Stewart be available for the postseason if the reds get their act together and make it?
Mark P
Yep. The August 31 rule only applies to players coming into the organization. Teams can and have called up prospects well after September 1 who have gone to play big roles in the playoffs.
Time to call it a wrap on tonight’s chat. Thanks for all of your questions, and the Weekend Chat will re-open in, oh, let’s say six or seven days’ time.
If you’re interested in more baseball Q&A, one of the many benefits of our Trade Rumors Front Office subscription is the exclusive weekly live chats. The more limited field means you’re about 10 times more likely to get a question answered, as opposed to battling for space with hundreds of other questions in today’s chat. For more on our memberships, check out this link:
Hey everyone, hope you've enjoyed your week! Looking forward to another of these, let's get going
Dave Dombrowski
How much has Kyle Schwarber raised his salary now? Does 4/140 keep him in Philly and away from FA? Does the uncertainty regarding Wheeler push me to make a strong offer to Ranger Suarez? And will there be enough left to resign JTR, the real rock of the pitching staff? Do you think that John Middleton will back a payroll approaching $400M?
Anthony Franco
Yeah I have to imagine 4/140 would get it done before he hits the market. Still don't see Philly going to 35M annually especially at their luxury tax status, but I do think he's got a shot at five years that could approach that guarantee
DH who is soon to be 33 is a profile the market hates but Schwarber's pretty clearly in a different tier from the Santander/Teoscar group. You could point to Alonso's quiet market last year as a counterargument, but Schwarber's walk year is so much better than Alonso's 2024
I don't think the Wheeler injury dramatically changes things on Ranger. Never seemed all that likely to me that they'd re-sign him for nine figures, even after trading Abel. I think they're just more likely to be in on an Adrian Houser type who can serve as a fifth starter or long man once Painter is in the rotation
Slick
Are the Nationals looking at another five years of rebuilding? From top to bottom this team appears to be in disarray.
Anthony Franco
I'm not as pessimistic on a core with Wood, Abrams, Gore, etc. but based on Steve's forthcoming Front Office post this week, I think he's more in your camp
He's about to drop like 2000 words on this topic
Mariners
What are your thoughts on the Robles suspension? Fair? Too long? Too short?
Anthony Franco
Start at 10, drop to seven seems fine. I feel like Contreras should have been at that level as well though, so I guess you could argue it's inconsistent
Chris
More likely to rebound in 2026: Braves or Orioles?
Anthony Franco
Tough one. I think I'd take Baltimore. Atlanta's got more high-end talent coming back, especially on the pitching staff, but they're probably going to put a lot on Sale, Schwellenbach and López to stay healthy in a way that concerns me
The O's have a lot of heavy lifting to do this offseason, especially in the bullpen, but I think they're a little more well equipped to navigate 162 with in-house depth
JeffyM82
Bo Bichette 2025 total hits over/under Bo Bichette total free agent contract (millions). Where are you putting your money? Bo Currently has 169 hits with 28 games remaining.
Anthony Franco
Ha yeah I'll take the hits. I like this one though, reasonable argument either way
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Good morning! I need to get the chat wrapped up a bit before 2pm today, so moving the start time up ever so slightly, from the usual 1pm CT to 12:45pm. As always, feel free to ask questions in advance if you prefer.
Greetings! Let’s get rolling
Cincinnati kid.
If the reds fail to make the playoffs I see McLain and Stephenson as trade bait. Would you consider dealing DeLaCruz to someone like the Yankees or dodgers since management will never give him the contract he’s expecting to get
Steve Adams
Stephenson for sure, if not a non-tender candidate. The Reds extended Trevino and have Alfredo Duno climbing the minor league ladder. Stephenson is controlled only one more year and due a raise that’ll take him north of $6MM in a season where he’s taken huge steps back at the plate and spent significant time on the IL. I don’t think there’d be a ton of surplus value, but I do think he’s a viable change-of-scenery candidate.As for McLain, it’s hard for me to imagine them selling so low on him, but I suppose if they could move him for a genuine upgrade in the outfield (with much lesser team control), maybe you entertain that thought.I generally don’t think it’s wise to just staunchly say any individual player is off limits — always listen — but it’d be hard to move Elly, who’s still controlled four more years.
Guest
Is Kyle Tucker still the biggest Free Agent this winter ?
Steve Adams
Yeah. If anything, I think the previously hush-hush fracture in his finger kind of quells some concern about why he’d struggled so much. Of course his numbers are going to take a hit. But he’s still a 29-year-old with plus power who at his best walks more than he strikes out and plays a fine right field. No one on the market can match his earning power.
FP
Will we see Jonah Tong in MLB this season?
Steve Adams
I think there’s enough smoke there that we should expect it, yeah.
Tigers
Tigers should trade skubal this offseason #1 to get as much value as possible and #2 because a 10 yr+ deal could kill you in the later years
Not the first Tigers fan I’ve seen suggest this, but I couldn’t disagree more with trading Skubal. This is their window to win a World Series. If he walks and you “only” get a draft pick next winter, so be it, but Skubal is one of the two best pitchers in the game. Trading him in the midst of a win-now window because you want to make sure the 2028 team is better for it … I don’t see it. At least not for the Tigers. If you’re the Rays or Brewers and know you’re never going to get anything close to even a league-average payroll from ownership, perhaps that’s another story, but that’s not the case for Detroit.
Baltimore Fan
What is Adley’s future? Could he be traded this offseason? To where?
Steve Adams
I don’t think it’s completely off the table, but I also don’t think they’ll shop him or anything. With Basallo up/extended and Adley down to two years of club control, there’ll be teams calling, however, and Elias is going to listen since that’s his job.Padres, Guardians, Rays, Rangers, Astros, Cubs, Reds, Phillies all make varying degrees of sense as teams that could look into the possibility
“Cracker” Ray Schalk
Chisox catcher in 2026 will be…………
Steve Adams
I imagine they’ll just split reps between Kyle Teel and Edgar Quero, probably mixing in some DH and 1B work at times. Korey Lee could factor in as a third catcher since he’ll be out of options, but they could also just trade him to a team looking for a cheap option behind the plate.
Chris
What do you think Ben Rice’s role is next year? 1B only, lead C, backup C? Its tricky bc he needs a righty caddy and their other primary C is a lefty too.
Steve Adams
I’d say it’s likelier that Rice’s role hinges on what other opportunities present themselves this winter than it is that they have a set role for Rice that’ll drive their offseason pursuits. Ultimately, he’ll probably see time at both spots and mix in at DH, since you pretty much have to bake in some downtime for Stanton to any expectations/projections.
Tommy
What do you think the Orioles need to do for the rotation in the offseason? I could see Elias talking himself into a staring group of Bradish, Rogers, GRod, Kremer, Wells with Povich/Saurez/Young behind them. But there’s injury concerns galore. Does an ace complete the work or do they need multiple additions? Who do you think is reasonably available to improve them?
Steve Adams
I don’t see how they can just run it back with this group. They’ve been pretty timid in adding to the rotation under Elias, with the exception of the Corbin Burnes acquisition — and even that was just for one year.They’ll have major questions on the workloads for Bradish, Rodriguez and Wells. Povich/Young haven’t proven anything. Rogers is a free agent after 2026. Kremer after 2027.They should be looking to add multiple arms, at least one of whom can be controlled multiple seasons. Could be via trade or free agency, but you can’t carry that group into 2026 and hope for better results, and this past offseason’s barrage of low-upside one-year deals proved to be a notable misstep that played a big role in sinking their season.
Carlos Mendoza
Am I in over my head? Will I be back next season?
Steve Adams
He’s signed through next year with a 2027 option. I don’t really think this is a question, but I guess Mets fans have been frustrated enough that David Stearns felt it necessary to publicly state this morning that Mendoza will be back… I saw his quote and thought, “Well… yeah.”
Free Agency
Who’s giving up a draft pick to sign Gallen, Cease, King, Woodruff, Mahle?
Steve Adams
I don’t think Mahle gets a QO, and if he does, I would imagine he accepts it. The others are all pretty clear cases to reject QOs, for me. I suppose maybe Gallen would consider it, but he’s on a nice run right now and I think he’ll get the two-year/opt-out treatment at least.
RookTaker23
How much do home/road splits impact FA offers? Cody Bellinger (predictably) has some extreme ones.
Steve Adams
I doubt Bellinger’s home/road splits are going to be a prominent factor in his free agency. Most players hit better at home, even if they don’t necessarily play in a hitters’ paradise. Bellinger’s career-long home/road splits skew heavily toward his home performance, for instance, and he’s only spent four-plus months with Yankee Stadium’s short porch.
Cool Mama Bell
What does a long-term extension of Winn look like? 10 years, $300M?
Steve Adams
Nowhere close to that. He still has one pre-arb year where he’ll make basically the league minimum. Even if you project him to make $30MM in arbitration (just using an arbitrary round number), you’d be talking six free agent years at around $270MM, or $45MM per year. No way he’s getting that.Fernando Tatis Jr. is the only position player in this service bracket to ever clear $300MM, and he did it over 14 years (and with a much better offensive profile than Winn has put together). I doubt Winn would get even $150MM, which isn’t to disrespect him as a player, but here are the top three extensions for 2+ years of service position players:Tatis: 14 years, $340MM
Witt Jr.: 11 years, $288.7MM
Yordan Alvarez: 6 years, $115MM
Think Volpe might be available next season and if so would the Braves be interested?
Steve Adams
I do think there will be some talk about the Yankees looking for a better option at shortstop, and I have wondered whether Volpe is someone the Braves would look into, yeah.
Richard
Would 250 over 7 with a player opt out after 3 years be about right for Bichette? Adds a lot of risk for the team but gives him a chance to hit the market one last time in his career.
Steve Adams
I think that’s steep, despite the strong rebound. I like Bichette and all, but him being a year younger than Willy Adames doesn’t justify him shattering Adames’ $182MM by $68MM. I have him somewhere around $175-200MM. We’ll see how he finishes.
Reds GM
It seems this year that there are a lot more players who may qualify for Super 2 and reach arbitration a year early. Does everyone who reaches the cutoff and has 86 days of service time qualify? Or is there a limit on how many players can qualify for Super 2 every year?
Steve Adams
The Reds have several of those guys (McLain, Elly, Abbott, Brandon Williamson). But it seems like there’s some fundamental misunderstanding of what the cutoff is. Super Two status is given to the top 22% of players (in terms of total service time) between two and three years of MLB service. By definition, only 22% of all players between two and three years of service can be Super 2 newcomers.The number could vary year to year, simply because the volume of players between 2 and 3 years of service changes somewhat each season, but on a rate basis, it’ll always be the same proportion of the service class.Cincinnati just happens to have quite a few guys in that boat this year, so perhaps it seems to you like there are more.
For what it’s worth, EDLC and Abbott will probably be right around the bubble.
McLain and Williamson are locks, though Williamson isn’t going to get a salary of note after missing the season due to injury. Probably like $800K. If he’s tendered.
Champdo
Does Riley Greene’s rising k rate and plummeting walk rate limit the amount of money he’ll get in an extension or in FA
Steve Adams
I don’t think it matters a ton just yet. He’s traded out some extra K’s for the best power output of his career, both in terms of volume and on a rate basis.I wouldn’t want to see the strikeouts climb any higher, though, and I’d already like to see some of the walks creep back in. He’s clearly working with a bit of a different approach this year, swinging far more often than at any point in the past. If he can maintain some of the power gains and restore a bit of his former selectivity, there could be a sweet spot where he really dials in.
Whatever concerns the less-exciting plate discipline profile create would also be offset by him inching closer to free agency (and topping 30 homers). He’d probably clear $100MM on an extension if they pursue it.
Free Agency
How robust is Gleyber Torres’ market going to be? I’m a little surprised not see him on the monthly power rankings of impending free agents, given his youth and performance
Steve Adams
I had him 14th and wrote him up on the Power Rankings follow-up (Nos. 11-15) we did for subscribers.Broadly speaking, the market doesn’t pay pure second basemen. Marcus Semien is the only one who’s gotten the huge payday, and he did it coming off a 6-WAR, 45-homer season with plus defense and baserunning (and from a Rangers team that was willing to splash around some silly money).Torres has had a nice year, but he’s been a more good than great hitter with minimal defensive/baserunning value. To me, he feels like someone who’ll come in comfortably under $100MM, age notwithstanding.
Gashouse Gorilla
I’m interesting in the decision on Nathaniel Lowe. I realize he was having a poor year, but it seems strange with his past history he was just let go. Nationals have a reason other than (some) money?
Steve Adams
They’d have non-tendered him in the offseason. No one was going to give up a prospect of any value to acquire one year of Lowe when he’d have gotten a raise north of $12MM. They cut him loose to open at-bats for younger players and probably held out a small bit of hope that maybe someone would claim the contract, which they unsurprisingly did not.
I tend to agree, though it’s hardly a sure thing just yet.
King Tuck
O/U 75% chance the Cubs re-sign Tucker? If they do would a Cody Bellinger contract be possible? 3-4 years with an opt out after 2 and 3 years. 150mil over 4 years. 37.5 mil aav is a hefty pay raise from this year.
Steve Adams
Way under on the percentage the Cubs re-sign him, and no way he’s taking a three- or four-year deal.
$ for a question?
Only way a question can be fielded is if I pay a subscription?……..poor people like baseball too!
Steve Adams
This chat is hosted on third-party software. I have no idea who in here is a subscriber or not. But there are 448 people participating/asking questions, and that constitutes a (very) lightly attended chat. Which is par for the course this time of year, as opposed to the deadline or offseason.
anxious jays fan
whats our plan if bichette walks? start clement full time? kick gimenez over?
Steve Adams
Gimenez to shortstop and go outside the organization at 2B, I would think.But I thought the Guardians should’ve moved Gimenez to SS years ago and they chose not to. So we shall see. I think the Jays will make a genuine effort to re-sign Bichette, too, so it’s not a foregone conclusion that he leaves.
Pete
Now that a little more time has passed, does the White Sox handling of the Louis Robert situation make any more sense to you?
Steve Adams
Robert could stay healthy and hit .300/.375/.530 from the deadline on, and I would still say it was a risk I wouldn’t have taken, even if it pans out perfectly like that.
I understood the risk they were taking, I just didn’t agree with it and still don’t. But teams and players take risks all the time where I say “Woof, I don’t like that at all” and it still works out. Part of the game/business.
BTinVT
Can you see Gorman turning into Muncy? Thank you
Steve Adams
Gorman doesn’t walk like Muncy, and Muncy has never struck out as much as Gorman. I guess he could be a poor man’s version of Muncy, but I don’t think he has that same sort of offensive ceiling as Muncy
PhilsPhansince1965
Should we unload either Castellanos or Taijuan over the winter to save some $$?
Steve Adams
Far easier said than done. No one’s going to take much (any?) of Castellanos’ contract. I guess maybe you could pay Walker down to like $5-8MM and dump him for little to no return.
Even year
What will need to happen for the Giants to contend in 26?
Steve Adams
If they add one more legitimate bat, get Devers healthy, and bring in some rotation support for Webb/Ray, I don’t think it’s far-fetched that they contend. I’d like to see two bats (one in RF, one at 2B), but you can’t just expect them to go sign Tucker, Gleyber, Cease and a couple relievers, so trying to traffic somewhat in reality here.
rusty
Will Jakob Marsee go 20/20 in ’26?
Steve Adams
At this rate he might do it in 2025!
Kidding, obviously. I think it’s a pretty easy yes on the steals. Bit more skeptical on the power, but it’s not outside the realm of plausibility.
Guest
Do you see any big ticket free agents heading to San Francisco in the near future?
Steve Adams
They’re among the more obvious suitors for Kyle Tucker and Gleyber Torres, sure. I imagine Bichette is going to state early on that he’ll play any position (a la Story and Adames) to increase his market viability as well, even if he wants to stay at shortstop. Giants pursuing him as a 2B option wouldn’t surprise me.
Ok, I’ve got to wrap up for the week.I’m on X @Adams_Steve or Bluesky @adams-steve.bsky.social if you have more questions. If you want more opinions from the MLBTR team, you can learn about our Front Office subscription package and sign up here. In addition to ad-free viewing on the site and in the app, you’ll get weekly analysis/opinion columns from Anthony Franco and myself, a weekly mailbag column from Tim Dierkes, weekly fantasy baseball chats and columns with Nicklaus Gaut, two weekly subscriber-only chats (one with me, one with Anthony) where your odds of getting a question answered are much higher, direct Q&A opportunities with Darragh McDonald, access to our Contract Tracker, our GM Tracker and our Agency Database, and more.Have a great week, everyone!
Good afternoon! I'll get going at 2pm CT, but feel free to ask a question ahead of time if you like.
Hello! Let's get underway
small mouth bass
For 2026, could the Jays opt for slick middle infield - Gimenez + Clement - and go hard after Bregman to play 3rd (with Barger going to RF)?
Steve Adams
I don't see any reason the Jays wouldn't be on Bregman this offseason. He's a good fit for the roster, they have plenty of cash coming off the books, they'll be firmly in win-now mode, the cost won't be beyond their comfort level, etc.That said, I don't think that means you need to resign yourself to Gimenez/Clement up the middle. Second basemen generally aren't paid that richly in free agency. Gleyber Torres is probably going to be the top earner among this year's group, but I don't think he's going to get nine figures or anything. They could look for a bounceback from Luis Rengifo or look into trading for Brandon Lowe or Ozzie Albies. There are lots of paths to consider.
Unqualified Reds GM
Nick Lodolo for Jarren Duran. What/who else needs to be tossed in for this to happen?
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Have a bunch going on today so I need to keep this one at an hour
Olereb
Who do you see the Braves targeting to upgrade at ss, also do you see the Braves trying to rid themselves of Justin Profar?
Anthony Franco
Bichette would be uncharacteristic for them but they've got Iglesias and Ozuna coming off the books short term and there's a case they need to move off their usual operating procedure of prioritizing trades/extensions based on how poorly they've played this year
Albies doesn't look like a core piece anymore, so they'd be able to slide Bo over to second in a couple years if he can't stick at SS long term. Trade market at the position has been bad for a while. Sox would probably move Story to make room for Marcelo Mayer (eh), could try to get the Royals to give up Maikel Garcia but it'd take a lot
Profar's mashing since he's been back. They'd need a new left fielder if they trade him. I'm sure they're not happy with how things went down, but keeping him at 2/30 seems fine to me
Sam
What's the Twins' offseason ahead look like? Will it be frugal once again due to the Pohlads retaining ownership of the team, or will they decide to start spending again (a la Correa) to try to get back into contention?
Anthony Franco
I have a hard time seeing them kick up spending dramatically. Teams almost never follow up a massive teardown by throwing a bunch of money at it and trying again
I expect Ryan and Jeffers to go at least. Feels like they could hold Pablo into next season because of the injury impacting his trade value. Then backfill with a bunch of smaller deals in the bullpen (similar to last winter's Rangers approach) at catcher, and for a right-handed outfield bat
They brought back enough upper level talent, particularly in the rotation, that I could see a path to contention in 2027. Much harder for me to envision it next season
Brian
with Samuel Basallo now locked up long term, what are chances the O's trade Adley this offseason?
Anthony Franco
I don't think the Basallo extension moves the odds much. They had him under team control for six seasons and knew how good he was already
They can coexist with the DH but Rutschman's offensive decline has made it feel for a while that he's running out of time there. Guess I'd put the odds of an offseason trade at 55%? Feels like at least 75% chance he's dealt by the 2026-27 offseason
The best evah
Can you explain what makes Mackenzie Gore so attractive to MLB teams? Despite a higher K/9 this year compared to previous years (10.7), he has a career 4.01 ERA and (as far as I can tell) striking out half a batter more per nine seems to be the only thing he's improved in his game this year. To throw out another data point, Will Warren is a year younger and sporting a HR9/BB9/K9 of 1.0/3.9/10.1, compared to Gore's 1.2/3.4/10.7. Is Warren half a strikeout per nine away from being seen in a similar light to Gore?
Anthony Franco
I'm sure there are plenty of teams that really like Warren but Gore throws two MPH harder from the left side, and there's a huge gap in swinging strikes on a per-pitch basis. Gore's eighth among pitchers with 100+ IP with a 13.4% swinging strike rate. Warren is 69th at 9.5%
Warren gets a ton of called strikes, so they're pretty close in overall strikeout rate, but that's a little tougher to bank on year over year. Gore getting tons of whiffs with plus stuff from the left side feels like a higher upside play
Also feels like Gore's results are weighed down a little bit pitching in front of a Nationals infield that is by far the worst in MLB. It's a good shout though. Warren's good, just a tier down below Gore for me
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Good morning! We’ll get going at 1:00 CT, give or take a couple minutes, but feel free to begin sending in questions ahead of time if you prefer.
Greetings! Let’s get going
Doug Sisk
What happens to Frankie Montas’ 2026 player option if the Mets release him before the end of the 2025 season?
Steve Adams
The player option is guaranteed money. He’d make next year’s $17MM and count against the luxury tax whether he’s on the roster or not.
OsKnows
Mountcastle’s time as an O almost over?
Steve Adams
I do think he’ll be traded this offseason (or perhaps just non-tendered if he really struggles down the stretch, but he’s hitting well since returning from the IL anyhow). I’d expect first base to primarily be a combination of Mayo and Basallo next year. Mountcastle only has one year of club control left and will probably make more than $8MM. O’s can move him and put that money toward pitching instead.
When a player is released to pursue an opportunity overseas, does that generally happen because the players agent is looking for better financial opportunities for their client or is it because the foreign team reaches out? I’m trying to figure out how a AAAA player is identified as a good fit for a Korean baseball team etc.
Steve Adams
KBO and NPB teams have scouts watching MLB and MiLB games. They’ll identify guys they like, get in touch with the agent, and if there’s reciprocal interest you can then pull in the player’s current organization and discuss some kind of release fee.By the time a player is getting released to pursue a foreign opportunity, the contract and any release fee have typically already been sorted out.
Jerry Dipoto
Am I going to re-sign Josh Naylor to be my 1B next year? Or is there a different external options I should be looking at? I don’t see the player in house.
Steve Adams
I lean toward no. Mitch Garver is the only free agent position player Dipoto has signed to a multi-year deal since taking over the Mariners a decade ago.
TennesseeMG
Do you think Kyle Tucker’s monster slump will have a major impact, moderate impact or little to no impact on the deal he gets in free agency?
Steve Adams
Little to none, provided it’s not due to an injury or anything. We have like 5 years of telling us this guy’s an amazing hitter… that’s not going to get overshadowed by a few weeks of struggles. I mean, if he hits like .150/.225/.250 down the stretch, maybe it starts to impact, but as of right now, it’s not a factor really.
Steve Cohen
Who do you think wins the MVP in each league?
Steve Adams
Ohtani in the NL, and I’ve probably flipped to Raleigh in the AL. I could go either way at this moment, but it increasingly seems like Judge is going to be limited or a total nonfactor on defense for the rest of the season, and he’s in a pretty rough stretch at the plate which seems attributable to the injury.
Jose Alvarado
I’m coming off the restricted list today… My contract is done at the end of 2025… but if I perform down the stretch similar to what I did before my PED suspension – do you think the Phillies will try to re-sign me? Or did a door close in Philly after I screwed up.
Steve Adams
The Phillies have a $9MM club option that comes with a $500K buyout. A net $8.5MM option is a pretty easy call for them on Alvarado. He’ll be back.
Effin Eflin
Does Zach Eflin get a QO from the Orioles this off season?
Steve Adams
Had he been healthy, yeah — but with the lat/back injuries and now back surgery clouding some of his offseason, no. The O’s aren’t risking around $22MM on day one of the offseason when he’ll only be a couple months into the rehab process.
Jays in 43 parks
Bassitt is having a decent season. Would a 2 yr ext at same AAV be smart for the Jays. Would Bassitt accept?
Steve Adams
I think a two-year term is pretty reasonable — he’s not going to get more than that for ages 37 and 38 — but the $21MM AAV feels a little steep to me. Bassitt is still effective, and he’s consistent, but his velo is down more than a mile per hour from last year and nearly two miles per hour from the point at which he signed the contract. I don’t think teams are going to excited about $20MM+ for a 37-year-old who’s sitting 91 mph with his heater. I’d probably guess like $15-16MM per year over two.
Walter
How much longer before the Clase and Ortiz situation is resolved?
Steve Adams
They’re on leave through Aug. 31, and it’ll probably extend beyond that if this is anything like prior instances of players being placed on administrative leave.
PhilsPhansince1965
Harrison Bader is a hard one for me to forecast – love the CF defense even while he is now at an age that it can decline rapidly. His bat has never been a steady plus however, but perhaps he can be league average in center. What range of contract offers might he get this winter?
Steve Adams
I think he’s done enough to get a multi-year deal. He’ll be 32, but you can bank on the defense being good and there have been some real offensive gains. Something like two years and $22MM?
Brew Crewzing
NL Cy Young? Skenes is most dominant but has a losing record, Wheeler is out for awhile. Who can sneak in? (Freddy Peralta? If he can reach 20 wins.)
Steve Adams
The record is irrelevant. It’ll be Skenes, barring some late injury or collapse, and deservedly so. It’s not his fault the team around him is awful.
John
Is Trevor Rogers a true 1? Does he finish top 5 cy young this year?
Steve Adams
I don’t think he’ll have the workload to finish top 5, and I don’t buy him as an ace, no. He’s obviously improved over last year, but it’s an average strikeout rate and swinging-strike rate, good command … and huge assists from a .214 BABIP and 85% strand rate, neither of which is sustainable over a lengthy period.I loved Rogers back in ’21, but he had an extra 1.5 mph on his heater then, several extra percentage points in his swinging-strike rate and was giving up less contact on pitches in the zone.
This version of him sure looks like a good mid-rotation guy to me, but I don’t buy into the results being THIS good.
Oz
There were indications that the Braves would use Sean Murphy and Drake Baldwin next year as their DH/catcher tandem. In view of Sean Murphy’s struggles, is it possible that they might re-sign Marcell Ozuna to a 1-year deal, acquire a back-up catcher, and trade Murphy to fill another team need?
Steve Adams
I do think there’s a chance that they end up trading Murphy, but I’d be surprised to see Ozuna back with how much he’s struggled since June.
Tom Kelly’s blues
Do the Twins build around the core of Keashal, Lee, Lewis, Wallner, Martin and Larnach along with Buxton and Jeffers?
Steve Adams
I wouldn’t call all of them core pieces. Keaschall and Buxton, yes. Lee will get every chance to prove he can be that, and I can’t imagine them selling low on Royce Lewis. Wallner, Martin and especially Larnach feel much less like core pieces to me. I think Larnach is probably non-tendered or traded early in the offseason. Jeffers just has one year of club control left as well, making him a pretty viable offseason trade candidate.
Mike
why havent I heard anything about Merrill Kelly receiving a QO? He should get one right?
Steve Adams
He can’t receive one because he was traded midseason.
If the D-backs had kept him, yeah, he’d have gotten one.
John
this would’ve sounded crazy a couple years ago, but do the rangers non tender Josh Jung or still too early?
Steve Adams
They won’t non-tender him. He’s only going into his first arb year. But I wouldn’t be shocked with a trade, either. I imagine there are going to be sweeping changes to that lineup this offseason.
2023 Angels
If the Red Sox make the playoffs, is Nathaniel Lowe eligible for their post-season roster? Would this also be true if he had been claimed off waivers – i.e. if Boston had assumed his remaining contract? Does this change for waived players added after August?
Steve Adams
As long as a player is in the organization — not even on the 40-man roster — before Sept. 1, he can be eligible for the postseason. If that player isn’t on the 40 as of 9/1, they’d need to petition the league to have him replace an injured player, but teams do that every year.
Anyone signed/claimed Sept. 1 or later is ineligible.
Luis Robert Jr
What sort of contract offer can I expect this offseason?
Steve Adams
You can expect the White Sox to pick up your $20MM option, which I wouldn’t do — I’d have traded him — but they wouldn’t have held him just to decline the option.
Kyle
Nate Lowe has a 1.000 OPS so far with Boston, how long can he continue this level of production?
Steve Adams
Forever.
WT
Do you see the Reds this winter signing Tyler Stephenson to an extension? He only has 1 year of control after this season. Or will the Reds try to flip him this winter and make Jose Trevino their starter given Jose is locked up for several years? Catching depth in the Reds system seems light if they trade him or let him walk off after 2026.
Steve Adams
He’s been below-average at the plate (albeit average relative to his position) and would be getting a raise north of $7MM probably. I don’t know that he’s a non-tender candidate, but I could see him traded.Trevino gives them an elite, affordable glove to start back there until Alfredo Duno is ready for a look in a couple years. And while the system is lacking volume in terms of catching prospects, Duno is one of the better catching prospects in the sport.
Zeke haydn
Who will be the first pirate traded after the season has ended?Skenes? Or Cruz?
Steve Adams
Neither? But definitely not Skenes. Either Mitch Keller or Dennis Santana seems like they’d have a good chance to go, though.
Mike T
Will Nick Allen be looking for a new team after this year? Will he even still be in the majors?
Steve Adams
He’s such a good defender that someone will have him on a roster on Opening Day, but the Braves should 100% be looking for shortstop upgrades, with Allen either moving to a bench role or being traded.
Playing Nats GM
Between the 5 OFs on the MLB roster and a few others in the pipeline, trading from that group to fill another need makes sense for Washington. Is that something you could see the Nationals doing this winter?
Steve Adams
Sure. They’re not going to move Wood or Crews, but any of Young, Hassell or Lile seems plausible.
Ryan
Eovaldi = 2025 AL Cy Young winner?
Steve Adams
He’s going to come in 30 or so innings behind Skubal, Crochet and Hunter Brown. I don’t think he’s going to have the innings. But I suppose if he can somehow sustain a 1.75 ERA or even improve upon it, at a certain point the workload gap will take a backseat to the rate stats. I don’t know that anyone can really expect to sustain results this good, though, and I wouldn’t say we’ve reached the point yet where the gap can be justifiably overlooked.
Kyle
Does Bichette find someone to pay him like a SS this offseason, or do teams see him more as a guy who needs to move to 2B/3B and pay him accordingly?
Steve Adams
I think he’ll sign as a shortstop but probably move to one of those other spots a few years into a deal. Jays, Tigers, Braves are the obvious potential landing spots (not that the Braves typically spend to that extent in free agency). Detroit has McGonigle coming, but he’s still only 20 and as said, Bichette could move to another spot in a few years.But, much like Willy Adames last winter, I think it’d be beneficial to get it out there early in the winter that he’s willing to play other positions, even if the goal is to sign somewhere that he can continue as a shortstop for a few years.
Alex Bregman
Can I top 40 MM AAV again but on a longer deal?
Steve Adams
No, but he’ll crush the $80MM he has left. And you can argue he doesn’t really even have a $40MM AAV right now anyway, once you factor in deferrals.
Tom Kelly
Will Emmanuel Rodriguez be starting in lf for Twins next year?
Steve Adams
I can see him up at some point, maybe even early in the season, but the K’s are a huge concern as is the durability (or lack thereof)
Moneyball
Who would you dangle in trades for pitching from the position player logjam forming on the A’s and which team(s) do you think would line up well as potential trade partners?
Steve Adams
Bleday and Soderstrom feel like the most straightforward calls to me, though I think you can keep functioning with Soderstrom, Kurtz and Rooker all on the same roster. Soderstrom has handled the outfield move just fine. Colby Thomas would get some interest if the A’s are envisioning Soderstrom, Clarke and Butler as the long-term outfield trio.I imagine they’ll have teams trying to pry Langeliers away, and if someone offers enough pitching, I think you have to be open to it. Three years of control remaining, price tag is going to skyrocket in arb, etc.
Ranger Danger
Will Philly make a QO to Suarez?
Steve Adams
Yup
The Mick
What years/$ will it take to sign Bellinger next season?
Steve Adams
Five years in the $25MM per year range?
Kyle
Any chance King exercises his option for next year and stays in SD, given the amount of time he’s doesn’t on the IL with health issues the year?
Steve Adams
No. Even with the injuries, he could decline and expect a much better one-year deal than the net $11.25MM. He gets the $3.75MM buyout regardless.
Jeremy
Contract that gets Bregman resigned next year? 5 years/150m?
Steve Adams
I’ll take the over.
Bud Man, Cub Fan
Cubbies have to be kicking themselves for not trading one of Cassie or Alcantara for another starter, right?
Steve Adams
Cubs’ and Tigers’ passive deadlines still surprise me.
MonarchsAllDay
Can the Royals at least make things interesting over the next month for that final playoff spot, however unlikely?
Steve Adams
They’re only 3.5 out, so sure, I can see them kind of hanging around. But the rest of their schedule is pretty rough. They have a stretch coming up where they play the Tigers six times in nine games, and they still have series against the Phillies, Mariners and Blue Jays.So… I don’t expect it, but they’re close enough already that it’s not unthinkable.
Kyle
Assuming Giolito passes the 140 innings and declines the option, does it make sense for Boston to give him a QO?
Steve Adams
It does. If he accepted, that’d be a fine price for him on a one-year deal, but I think he’d be very likely to decline. When you’ve got Jameson Taillon, Eduardo Rodriguez and Taijuan Walker signing in the $68-80MM range, I don’t see why Giolito can’t get into that range.
Dandy the mascot
Are Dominguez and Stanton the worst defensive corner OFs for a playoff bound team this century?
Steve Adams
Not great, but the Phillies got there with Schwarber and Castellanos playing OF regularly in 2022.
Schwarberr
How scary are the 2026 Reds if they sign Schwarber given their Rotation.
Steve Adams
I’ll believe they sign Schwarber when I see it. I know he’s from there and there was the recent piece in The Athletic about the idea of him playing at GABP, but I’ve come around on the idea of him signing a precedent-setting deal for someone of his age and lack of defensive versatility, and I don’t see Cincinnati topping $100MM to sign him.
Brian S
Any chance my White Sox have any chance of signing Murakami?
Steve Adams
I’d be surprised, as they haven’t really been active in the NPB market since………… Tadahito Iguchi? Am I missing anyone?Also, they’ve never signed a player for more than $75MM (which is still insane to think about for a team from Chicago … or really, for any team in MLB at this point).
Hard to say what Murakami’s earning power will be with the strikeouts, struggles against velocity and a half season lost to injury, but a 25-year-old with 80 raw power is going to get interest. He’s also demolishing the ball since he came off the injured list a couple weeks ago (albeit while still striking out in about a third of his plate appearances).
Kyle
Chances Cease and/or King sign short term high AAV deals with opt outs (a la Bregman) to hopefully have a bounce back year and hit free agency again next year?
Steve Adams
I can see it with either, sure.
Mike Elias
Do I trade Adley to the Mariners this offseason for much needed pitching?
Steve Adams
Think Seattle’s pretty good at catcher. They have a young guy back there who’s having an OK season. Can’t recall his name, but he’s one to watch for in the years ahead. 🙂
CHISOX FAN
Will Braden Montgomery be given a chance to make the team next year?
Steve Adams
I’d be surprised if he makes the club out of camp. He still only has 15-20 games in AA and has struck out a lot there. But sometime next summer, sure.
Alrighty, I’ve got to call it this week. I’m on X @Adams_Steve or Bluesky @adams-steve.bsky.social if you have more questions.If you want more opinions from the MLBTR team, you can learn about our Front Office subscription package and sign up here. In addition to ad-free viewing on the site and in the app, you’ll get weekly analysis/opinion columns from Anthony Franco and myself, a weekly mailbag column from Tim Dierkes, weekly fantasy baseball chats and columns with Nicklaus Gaut, a weekly subscriber-only chat with Anthony (where your odds of getting a question answered are much, much higher), extra insight from Darragh McDonald, access to our Contract Tracker, our GM Tracker and our Agency Database, and more.
Good afternoon! I'll get going at 2pm CT, but feel free to send in questions ahead of time, as usual.
Greetings!
Let's begin
RAGBRAI
Does Gallen get a QO from AZ and if so does he take it? What would he get on the open market with a respectable ROS?
Steve Adams
They'll give him a QO. His decision probably hinges somewhat on how he finishes, though I expect him to decline it. Gallen feels like he's going to be the next relatively high-profile starting pitcher/Boras client to sign a two-year deal with an opt-out. If he finishes poorly enough, maybe he accepts or (more surprisingly) doesn't get a QO. But I think if the D-backs saw any real scenario where they wouldn't give him the qualifying offer, he'd have been traded in July.
Obviously, a major injury changes that calculus, but short of that, I'd be surprised if he doesn't get one.
If he accepts that, it's not the end of the world. They paid Jordan Montgomery $22MM not to throw a pitch for them in 2025. A similarly priced gamble on a Gallen rebound isn't a terrible bet.
Brad
How many major league free agent contracts have surplus value? I feel like the percentage is much lower than you think.
Steve Adams
By definition, very few of them are going to provide surplus value. Free agency is an auction, and most teams tap out of the bidding because they feel the price has exceeded the player's value. On some one-year deals or some mid-range free agent deals, you can find some bargains, but it's only natural for the weightier free-agent deals to come in to provide minimal surplus value -- if any at all.
JM
Why can a player stay under club control after he's released and granted free agency? For instance (if reports are correct), Nathaniel Lowe is a free agent and will sign today with the Red Sox, after the Nats DFAed and released him upon clearing waivers. But those same reports say the Sox will have a final arb year of club control in 2026 (though likely non-tender him anyway). Once a free agent (after a release or a non-tender), not always a free agent?
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