Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

Steve Adams

  • Good afternoon! Sorry to start a bit later than usual today. Schedule moved around a bit with Darragh having a well-deserved day off. We'll get going at 3:30pm CT, but feel free to ask questions ahead of time, as always.
  • Good afternoon! Let's get underway

El Chupacabra

  • If the Royals were to trade Seth Lugo today, how much more - or less - would the return likely be vs. if they waited until the trade deadline?

Steve Adams

  • I don't think the return would be materially different. You could say the acquiring team might be forced to give up more to compensate for the extra month of control, but there'd also be fewer teams bidding, which could impact the price as well. The extent to which those offset each other can really only be theorized upon.For what it's worth, I also don't expect the Royals to trade Lugo. They're intent on contending, and GM JJ Picollo was recently quoted on record when discussing how important back-to-back playoff appearances would be.

    Further, as I often say, player options/opt-outs are so hard to navigate in trade talks. Eventually we'll see a prominent player with an opt-out at season's end traded, but these guys never really move in actuality. The team trading for Lugo would have to know he's either going to pitch well and opt out or that he'd get hurt and/or see his performance tank and forgo the out... thus saddling them with an unwanted salary on the 2026 books.

  • That makes it really hard to agree on prospects to be exchanged in the deal, as the Royals will want to market him like a playoff-caliber starter but the acquiring team knows that if he bombs, they're essentially taking on a bad contract. Pricing in that downside makes the trade less appealing for Kansas City. And, again, the Royals probably don't really want to trade Lugo in the first place.

Stockholm, AZ

  • What are the Diamondbacks gonna do? That was a crap series against Miami, and now they’re under .500. Season beyond rescue? I had such high hopes..

Steve Adams

  • I just have a hard time seeing them wind up in genuine contention with Carroll out, Burnes out, and Zac Gallen pitching more like Zack Godley. Even if this iteration of the D-backs got to the postseason, could they feel good about a playoff rotation of this version of Gallen and Merrill Kelly leading the way, followed by one of Pfaadt or E-Rod? And without Justin Martinez or AJ Puk in the bullpen? It just feels like a soft reset (trading Suarez, Kelly, Gallen, etc.) is kind of inevitable to me.

RoxTalks

  • Does the Rockies' nepotism hiring of Monfort's son to be executive VP basically ensure this team will be bad forever? It is extremely difficult to continue to support this team. Cannot believe the league allows stuff like this.

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MLBTR Chat Transcript

Mark P

  • Beads, bees, stew preparation, and maybe even some baseball discussion….we’ve got it all here in the latest edition of the Weekend Chat!

ChrisMC88

  • What should the mets prioritize more at this point, pitching or offense.. both need attention.. or even maybe look deeper into their hitting coaches.

Mark P

  • Things have looked rough in general for the Mets over the last couple of weeks, but their rotation is still the bigger need than their lineup.  I expect the front office to pursue help in both areas, but it seems like the patchwork that has been the Mets’ rotation is simply starting to fray

Brian

  • Do u think Crawford(Phillies prospect) has better change to play for Phillies or be traded by deadline this year???

Mark P

  • Seems like a better chance that he’ll stick with the Phillies, since they need OF help already.

John

  • Is there a world there the orioles don’t sell?

Mark P

  • Because baseball is baseball, the O’s could turn around and win 11 of their next 13 games and nobody would bat an eye.

    That being said, it would take an extreme hot stretch like that in July to get the O’s fully back into the playoff picture.  Feels like they just dug themselves into too big a hole too early.

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

Anthony Franco

  • Hey everyone, hope you've had a good week!

Tony

  • Thanks for the chat! My question is Cardinal related. It appears that their biggest needs are bullpen and right handed hitting outfield. If they packaged Fedde and Gorman (change of scenery) and a minor league catcher (or Pages from the MLB team) what kind of returns would you expect? Any impact players?

Anthony Franco

  • Not getting any impact talent with those guys. I think they each have slightly positive trade value but that's a quantity over quality package at this point. You'd probably need a team that really likes Pages' glove and thinks he's a low-end #1 catcher to get anything of note back

Sandy

  • All of the mock trades for me have been wild. If seen mocks that include both Leo De Vries & Ethan Salas is crazy. What type of package do the Marlins get for me

Anthony Franco

  • I have no idea what you're referring to on the mock specifics but yeah, they wouldn't get either De Vries or Salas
  • I do think they can pull a 50-FV type headliner though, someone who'd fall into the back half of the top 100 range. The velocity's still there, the command has been better lately, and he's making fourth/fifth starter money

Grateful Follower

  • Do you think any team (Tampa?) might attempt to acquire Soderstrom from the A’s with an eye towards possibly returning him to Catcher (even if the switchback was to wait until next year)?  Or has that ship sailed?

Anthony Franco

  • That'd be a really interesting one. I can see the logic, especially if they pull a controllable MLB starter. Doesn't even necessarily need to be a catcher conversion -- that'd be really tough to do midseason especially -- but just finding a team that can put him back at first base makes some sense

Utah Fan

  • Who would be targets for the TWINS if they are buyers at the deadline?

Anthony Franco

  • Man, any kind of functional pitching. Aside from Ryan, the staff has totally collapsed after the López and Matthews injuries. Feels like they need multiple relievers and at least one new starter if they're going to try to make it work this year

Knock-Knock

  • If Garver is your backup catcher you’re doing great at the position. He was brought in to DH for the M's, but that didn’t work out. He is overqualified for his current job, but I’d rather have him sit in the dugout 4 days in a row than bring up Ford to sit. With Cal as the forever catcher, Ford is tradeable. Why bring him up and run the risk of diminishing his value or to play once a week when he can add to his value playing every day in the minors?

Anthony Franco

  • This one seems like it's conditional on a Garver IL stint but at some point, Ford just has nothing left to show them in Triple-A
  • Cal's not going away anytime soon. They're just going to have to do the Drake Baldwin/Dalton Rushing thing of using him infrequently as a backup with the potential for occasional DH starts and letting him get his feet wet against big league pitching

Gimenez

  • Whatever happened to Andres Gimenez? Did he peak at age 23? It's one thing being a .250 hitter, but he's been below the Mendoza line for most of the season.

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MLBTR Chat Transcript

Steve Adams

  • Good morning! I’ll get going at 1pm, but feel free to send in questions sooner than that if you like.
  • Greetings!
  • Let’s get underway

Oz

  • I don’t see any chance that the Braves can overtake 5 clubs currently ahead of them in the standings to qualify for the postseason, especially in view of the injury to Chris Sale.  If they decide to be sellers at the trade deadline, who are their most marketable assets?

Steve Adams

  • Marcell Ozuna, Aaron Bummer, Pierce Johnson. Raisel Iglesias if he gets right between now and July 31. President Alex Anthopoulos sure doesn’t sound like someone who’s keen on a mass sell-off, so even trading Johnson and Bummer with their affordable options might be deemed a bridge too far, but reliever performance is volatile and teams overpay for bullpen help every deadline.

Nolan Arenado

  • Will Yanks, Astros, LAD, or Mets be interested in pursuing me this trade deadline? My defense is still superb, and while I had a down May, my April and June have OPS+’s of over 110

Steve Adams

  • Astros won’t go over the CBT. Yankees, Mets and Dodgers would pay a 110% tax on Arenado’s continued offensive decline. He’s just not worth his current contract — especially not for a top luxury offender — and he has the full no-trade to boot.
  • He’s not even an upgrade in L.A. over Muncy (raking since late April) or Paredes (great all year). Suppose you could play Paredes at 2B, but again, owner Jim Crane doesn’t want to cross the CBT line

Artie moreno

  • Will we see Kyren Paris again this year. What does he need to do

Steve Adams

    • Paris had a crazy start to the season but had terrible contact rates even when he was hot. It never felt sustainable. His contact rate since being sent to AAA is better than it was in the majors with the Angels but also worse than it was in AAA last year. I just don’t think he has the hit tool to be a big league regular, even though the power/speed combo is obviously tantalizing

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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat, Today At 2pm CT

Steve Adams

  • Happy Monday! We'll get going in about 90 minutes, but feel free to send in questions ahead of time.
  • Hello! Let's get underway

Rafael Devers

  • (Sorry for the old news but it’s still hot for a lot of us.). Is my contract “under water”?  Some reports say yes, the market (I.e., the Giants) apparently say no.  Great hitter but not much more.  Is there surplus value in the contract or not?

Steve Adams

  • I wouldn't say it's underwater. Devers is an elite hitter, top-10 in the sport, who won't turn 29 until October. We just saw Guerrero get a $500MM contract and Soto $765MM. Devers is owed $238.5MM beyond this season, starting with his age-29 campaign. That's older than Soto and Vlad were when they signed their contracts, of course, but if you asked me whether Devers would clear $238.5MM as a free agent this winter, I'd say he would, yes. Maybe not by leaps and bounds, as many teams would view him as a DH, but yeah, I think he'd get more than that in the open market still.

Knock-Knock

  • Are there ever thoughts about changing All Star Voting? I think the starters should be based on stat leaders at each position and then reserves should be who the fans vote for. Too many homers vote for their favorites when clearly, they aren’t the best. This year is better than past years (so far) but not totally true to who is playing the best at each spot.

Steve Adams

  • I doubt there will be, but yeah, I said last week in a chat that I don't really care about the All-Star Game whatsoever, in part because I find the voting process so stupid in the internet/social media era. It's always been more popularity contest than anything else, but it's just so exacerbated now.It'd be more appropriately labeled the "Fans' Choice" game or "Fan Selection" game, but in general, I don't find much excitement in it. I'll watch it if I have nothing else going on that night, but I find the All-Star Game less exciting than just tuning into a random Pirates/Reds game to watch Skenes vs. Greene or something.But it's also probably not aimed at the hardcore fan or a baseball sicko like me who consumes as much baseball content as I do. So maybe I'm just jaded and grumpy, haha.

What about Ann?

  • Tyler Fitzgerald a fit for Braves 2b?

 

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MLBTR Chat Transcript

Mark P

  • After a two-week hiatus due to some shift rescheduling, the Weekend Chat is back!

Thomas

  • Twins need to sell some pieces at the deadline. What would a trade package for Duran look like?

Mark P

  • It would be pretty substantial, yet I’m not sure I see Minnesota making that big of a move if they do sell.  Trading Duran would say something about the team’s plans for 2026 and beyond, and I think the Twins expect (hope?) to reload for next year if this season ends up going off the rails by the deadline

YamaPhoto

  • You predict the Braves to be sellers at the deadline?

Mark P

  • Anthopoulos pretty firmly closed the door on the idea of trading Chris Sale or anyone at the deadline, unless the team absolutely cratered.  These statements were made before Sale’s IL placement, however, which dealt another big blow to Atlanta’s chances.I don’t see the Braves selling (or fully deciding to sell) until close to the deadline, if at all.

Die Hard Rox Fan

  • What would a Jake Bird return look like. 2 top 100s?

Mark P

  • Bird’s having a great season, but that is a very, VERY optimistic hope for a reliever who hasn’t shown a whole lot prior to 2025

Andrew Abbott

  • Am I firmly in the Cy Young conversation?

Mark P

  • Too many NL pitchers having better years, and the advanced metrics hint at some regression coming for Abbott. That doesn’t detract from the fact that he’s pitched really well this year, and greatly helped Cincinnati’s rotation

….

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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

MLBTR's Steve Adams hosted a live chat today at 2pm CT, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.

 

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

Anthony Franco

  • Hey everyone, hope you had a good weekend! I'm not feeling great today so I'm going to keep this one around an hour. Let's get rolling

Duffy Scliff

  • You’re gonna get a million Devers questions, but tell me this, have you ever seen a trade like this? Where a contending team trades a player early into a massive contract? This is not Mookie, or Sale, or Nomar. This is not like A Rod or Stanton being traded in a salary dump. This is 100% unprecedented. This relationship must have been so far beyond repair and we didn’t see it. This is one of the most shocking trades in baseball history.

Devers

  • Why would SF do this deal? They don't have 3B open for him and with Eldridge coming up soon, Devers is going to be a very expensive DH only bat. The upside exists, but that's gambling a lot on a guy adjusting to the NL West gaunlet and changing his clubhouse negativity for a team surprisingly in the midst of a tough playoff race.

Anthony Franco

  • A quick control Ctrl-F shows there are 18 mentions of Devers in the queue. Not going to publish all of them for obvious reasons
  • Broadly speaking, I like it more for SF though I get where both sides are coming from. If Boston felt the relationship was truly beyond repair, I have a hard time seeing them getting more than this. Giants took the whole deal (minus the Hicks contract, which is a negative value asset but a short-term commitment) and Harrison and Tibbs are arguably on par with Top 100 type prospects
  • Harrison obviously is no longer a prospect but I think he'd be valued equivalently to a back of the top 100 guy if he hadn't exhausted his rookie eligibility
  • There's definitely risk for the Giants in creating a long-term logjam at the corner infield with Chapman signed forever and Eldridge knocking on the door. But we've also seen the top of the market for elite hitters spike in the couple years since the Devers contract was signed -- Vlad Jr. might be a worse player and just got $500M -- and they're in a division where there's always going to be huge pressure to pursue top-end talent

Dear Evan Carter

  • do you see the Mets transitioning well given canning is starting to show his true colors and senga being out awhile? i am concerned about what we could expect from montas/manaea given the time off.

John

  • Would it make sense for the Mets to trade one of their depth starters to try to get a higher leverage reliever or use some of the younger prospects in a bullpen role later in the season? I get a feeling the bullpen market will be light given how scarce quality arms are, especially lefties

Anthony Franco

  • Yeah I think they're going to be fine. The rotation is going to regress a little bit but the offense was heating up (at least going into the TB series) and they were starting to produce more with RISP
  • I imagine they'll just deal prospects to a non-contender for lefty bullpen help but I wouldn't be wedded to keeping Blackburn if they had another win-now team that wanted to swap MLB assets

Bat first

  • Yankees' designating Pablo Reyes for assignment in favor of keeping Ben Rice in the lineup is a bit surprising. With Rice/Escarra on the bench, that leaves Peraza/Grisham (or whichever outfielder is sitting that day) as the only pieces on the bench that can play a position other than 1B or C. Wouldn't it have been better to give Rice or Escarra everyday reps down in AAA, rather than let your 100 wRc+ players rust on the bench if you simply don't have everyday spots for them?

Anthony Franco

  • They like Escarra more than Rice defensively as the backup C and I'd much rather have Rice on my team than two of Reyes and Peraza
  • Tough to count on Stanton playing every day and there's not much harm in mixing in a few more rest days for Goldy. Between that and maybe an occasional start at catcher, I think they can find 3-4 starts a week to keep Rice in a groove

Robert from SC

  • I saw that Braves fans were disappointed today when Nacho Alvarez was optioned. I don't understand why. He's not going to save this team from the disappointing season they're having. Is Nacho the long term answer at SS?

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

Anthony Franco

  • Hey everyone, hope you're doing well!
  • Looking forward to another of these, let's get it going

Tony

  • What moved do you see the cards making at the deadline? They seem to think hesley will form down a QO but I think fedde would take it.  I would trade fedde and some mix of Gorman, Burleson and Scott/Siani

Gadzooks

  • There are 3 NL Central teams between 2.5 and 4 games of the last Wild Card spot; Milwaukee, St Louis, and Cincinnati. Who's most likely to be a seller come the Deadline?

Anthony Franco

  • Cards have hit the skids here a little bit, which makes sense since it felt they were playing above their level in May. I still lean towards them as soft sellers and think they should move the rentals
  • Definitely wouldn't QO Fedde (that'd be an easy accept) and probably wouldn't do it for Helsley either. Decent chance he'd accept and a $21M+ salary for a very good but not top-tier reliever is rich, especially for a team that pulled back spending over the winter
  • As for the broader division picture, I think Milwaukee will try to straddle the line (shop Hoskins while acquiring MLB talent elsewhere), though Civale was the most obvious candidate for that even before he asked out. Cincinnati doesn't have a ton of short-term pieces beyond Nick Martinez, who is good but expensive since he's playing on a QO salary. I think they'll be soft buyers as long as they're within five or six games of a Wild Card spot

Wandering Chief

  • Heyman suggests that the Braves are studying the shortstop and outfield markets. I can see a couple of outfield options - I love Durran - but I don't think there's an outfield market to study. What say you?

Sam

  • Let's say that you're Alex Anthopoulos and Braves ownership has told you that you must buy at the trade deadline and attempt to compete this year. What steps would you take to improve the Braves' roster?

Anthony Franco

  • Outfield has a little more than shortstop. I'd be really surprised if the Braves made a massive push for Duran when they're this far out of it. Taylor Ward might be available, Ryan O'Hearn could play some outfield (though there'll be a lot of completion for him). Maybe someone takes a flier on Chas McCormick when he comes back from an oblique injury
  • Braves need bullpen help too. I don't really agree that they should buy unless they really turn things on over the next six weeks, but they're a potential Bednar fit to stabilize the ninth

Bo Knows Deadlines

  • Obviously with the Blue Jays now leading the wild card chase in the AL Bichette isn't likely going anywhere but if the unthinkable happens and the Jays drop out of the running between now and the deadline what would a package for a Bo rental look like given the nice bounce back season he's current enjoying?

Anthony Franco

  • I think they could pull a 50 FV prospect (a back of the top 100 type) and a mid-level guy for a Bichette rental -- especially given the lack of alternatives at shortstop. They'd need to absolutely tank over the next month to do it though

Matt

  • Do you think Taylor Walls will be DFA’d when Kim gets activated? On a related note, how good of a defender do you have to be in order for teams to overlook the fact that you can’t hit? I’m flummoxed that he’s kept his roster spot for this long.

Anthony Franco

  • He'd feel redundant with Kim and Caballero. Still has options so it doesn't necessarily need to be a DFA. They could demote Mead instead, I guess. Not like either of them (or Morel for that matter) have done much
  • Plus glove at shortstop gets you a decent leash as long as you're not making any money and have options. Teams like that profile a lot less when you don't have any roster flexibility

RAGBRAI

  • Are the Brewers gambling a bit by letting Civali go? Or is the depth good enough to withstand an injury loss?

GBS42

  • Do you think the Brewers sending Civale to the White Sox was simply a matter of doing their best for the team and player while fulfilling his request, or was there some, "Well fine, enjoy your time with the hapless Southsiders!" Reminds me of the Cardinals spitefully trading Rolen to the Blue Jays, the last place he wanted to go. (It could have been worse for Civale, they could have seen him to the Rockies.)

Anthony Franco

  • Eh he asked his way out and I just don't think he's all that good to begin with. I was surprised they tendered him a contract for $8M in all honesty
  • Low-90s velocity with declining whiff rates, inconsistent durability history, escalating home run issues. I like him more as a swingman than as a fourth or fifth starter
  • As for the trade itself, definitely wouldn't have predicted it but I guess I get it. Vaughn wasn't getting another chance in Chicago. Sox can give Civale six or seven starts and try to get a 40 FV prospect for him at the deadline, which was less likely with Vaughn. I don't see a whole lot in it for the Brewers but it felt like they just wanted to get this over with before it became a distraction and maybe there's a 5-10% chance that a change of scenery gets something out of Vaughn

Rhys Hoskins

  • Can I find myself back in Philly? I would boost the offense, let Harper DH a bit if Schwarber plays some LF, and bring good vibes to friends and teammates alike.

Anthony Franco

  • Tough for me to see that one with the number of bat-first players they've got already
  • I kind of get the vision but you're putting a lot on Schwarber's plate defensively and more or less pulling the plug on Kepler, who hasn't been productive but is a guy they signed for $10M over the winter

Chris

  • Can you see Schwarber getting more than 90M this offseason?

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