MLBTR Chat Transcript

Steve Adams

• Good morning! I’ll get going at 1pm, but feel free to send in questions sooner than that if you like.
• Greetings!
• Let’s get underway

Oz

• I don’t see any chance that the Braves can overtake 5 clubs currently ahead of them in the standings to qualify for the postseason, especially in view of the injury to Chris Sale.  If they decide to be sellers at the trade deadline, who are their most marketable assets?

Steve Adams

• Marcell Ozuna, Aaron Bummer, Pierce Johnson. Raisel Iglesias if he gets right between now and July 31. President Alex Anthopoulos sure doesn’t sound like someone who’s keen on a mass sell-off, so even trading Johnson and Bummer with their affordable options might be deemed a bridge too far, but reliever performance is volatile and teams overpay for bullpen help every deadline.

Nolan Arenado

• Will Yanks, Astros, LAD, or Mets be interested in pursuing me this trade deadline? My defense is still superb, and while I had a down May, my April and June have OPS+’s of over 110

Steve Adams

• Astros won’t go over the CBT. Yankees, Mets and Dodgers would pay a 110% tax on Arenado’s continued offensive decline. He’s just not worth his current contract — especially not for a top luxury offender — and he has the full no-trade to boot.
• He’s not even an upgrade in L.A. over Muncy (raking since late April) or Paredes (great all year). Suppose you could play Paredes at 2B, but again, owner Jim Crane doesn’t want to cross the CBT line

Artie moreno

• Will we see Kyren Paris again this year. What does he need to do

Steve Adams

• • Paris had a crazy start to the season but had terrible contact rates even when he was hot. It never felt sustainable. His contact rate since being sent to AAA is better than it was in the majors with the Angels but also worse than it was in AAA last year. I just don’t think he has the hit tool to be a big league regular, even though the power/speed combo is obviously tantalizing

Trader Jerry

• Montes, Ford + 1 FOR Naylor & Suarez + $  WHO SAYS NO?

Steve Adams

• Can’t see the Mariners giving up that much for a pair of rentals.

Kevin Gregg

• Suarez + Gallen for Caisie?

Steve Adams

• Same here … Caissie is a steep ask for two rentals. Gallen isn’t even pitching well.

Optimistic Ms Guy

• If u had to pick between o’hearn or naylor…. Who’s the better fit for us?

Steve Adams

• O’Hearn is the bigger upgrade to the lineup, but he’ll cost more, too. That’s not a knock on Naylor, who’s also quite good and would be a pronounced upgrade in Seattle — ROH is just having himself a moment in 2025.

Ray

• Is Casey Schmidt the best fit at 2B for the Giants once Matt Chapman is back at 3B, especially with Tyler Fitzgerald losing his spot, or will they look to add further before the deadline?

Steve Adams

• I think they’ll be open to further additions at 2B. Doesn’t necessarily have to be long-term since I’m sure they still hope Fitzgerald can be that (and because the offseason will have ample options to peruse at 2B, as always). Brandon Lowe, Willi Castro perhaps, Luis Urias — there’ll be some names, not all of them sexy, who could be had as a 2B alternative.

Dr. Mantis Tobogan

• Which CBT-never-payor (AZ, BAL, CIN, CLE, COL, KC, MIL, A’s, PIT, STL, TBR, MIA) will be the next one to pay it for the first time?

Steve Adams

• Ohh, that’s fun. The D-backs ran their payroll up to $200MM+ this year, so I’d probably go with them. None of the others seem likely to at any point anytime soon, but the Cardinals have at least pushed to the $175MM range, so I would take them — certainly over the Reds, Guards, Royals, Brewers, A’s, Pirates, Marlins.
• Twins are up for sale, too, so who knows if they end up with an owner with deep enough pockets. Hard to imagine and wouldn’t be anytime soon, but I don’t think it’ll happen anytime soon for any of these teams.

Jeimer Candalario

• Do I get another chance in the majors and with who? I wasn’t expecting DFA.

Steve Adams

• Oh yeah, someone will pick him up once he clears release waivers and is a free agent.
• Yankees, Tigers, Brewers, Twins could all use some other options in the infield. Back to the Cubs to see if he can recapture something there again doesn’t seem completely outlandish.

Paul

• Roki Sasaki for MacKenzie Gore: who says no? Seems like this could truly be a win-win for both teams.

Steve Adams

• It’s a fun question. I may be in the minority here, but I wouldn’t trade Gore for Sasaki. Touted as he is, Sasaki is almost completely untested against MLB lineups and is currently on the 60-day IL. He also had a notable injury history in Japan. MacKenzie Gore is among the best young pitchers in the league right now and has 2.5 years of club control remaining. At least in a straight-up swap, the Nats would have to ask for more.

NotBob

• Could Failter bring back a top 100 prospect?

Steve Adams

• No, Bailey Falter isn’t going to get that kind of return

John

• Do you believe the Rays will trade a starting pitcher for more offense with Boyle most likely ready to step into a starting role with the big league team

Steve Adams

• Both Joe Boyle and Ian Seymour are shoving in Triple-A. I think Zack Littell stands as one of the likelier trade candidates in the game, but he’s not having a great year and probably won’t bring much in return. Would be far, far more interesting if Tampa Bay sold high on Drew Rasmussen, whose contract is hugely valuable and could thus probably net them a pretty major return.Rasmussen is great, but workload and health are always going to be concerns and the Rays have the pitching to absorb that loss (especially since there’d probably be some kind of pitching prospect of note coming back in the deal).

Dana Brown

• I have Yordon coming back soon do I go get another left handed bat or a starting pitcher?

Prospect Hunter

• Rank the following prospects based on their next 3 years:  Chase Burns, Bubba Chandler, Andrew Painter, Travis Sykora

Steve Adams

• Oops, didn’t mean to double-publish there, but I’ll do both (in order)
• Brown said two days ago that a LH bat is his “big issue” and that he’s exploring various avenues:
  https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/06/astros-trade-rumors-left-handed…That’s the big one. The rotation question is contingent on the rehab processes of guys like Spencer Arrighetti, Cristian Javier, Lance McCullers, J.P. France, etc. — as Chandler Rome suggested in his recent Mailbag piece:
  https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6446390/2025/06/24/astros-trade-deadl…

  I think SP is on the back-burner with so many arms on the mend, but further injuries between now and July 31 could impact that.

  Also have to consider payroll. Houston is about $5.5MM from the CBT threshold and, again, Crane doesn’t want to pay the tax.

• On the prospects, I would go Chandler, Burns, Painter, Sykora — but I am not someone who is paid to specialize in evaluating prospects, so take that with a grain of salt.A lot of people might say Painter has the highest ceiling, but with a notable injury like this already under his belt, I’d dip him beneath Bubba and Burns.

  You can promote Bubba anytime now, Pirates.

SoCal Southsiders

• What would a Zach Neto extension look like?

Steve Adams

• https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/05/mlb-mailbag-neto-nationals-trad…

Perry

• What would it take to get German Marquez? I know it’s not a sexy pick up. But he could help the back end of of the rotation.

Steve Adams

• Yeah, I don’t think the asking price could be all that high — couple of 40-FV (future value) type prospects. Typically those guys fall in the 10 to 20 range of a team’s farm rankings, depending on depth of the system of course.

Nats Guy

• What would a James Wood or MacKenzie Gore extension look like?

Steve Adams

• They’re both young superstars repped by Scott Boras. Gore is already only 2.5 years from free agency. I don’t see either being extended, but the price on both is well into nine figures. Gore would probably be eyeing Crochet’s $170MM extension and looking to top it. Wood is good, I don’t even know. $200MM+? He’s an absolute monster.
• Phone call, one second
• Ok

Pirate Maximus

• What happened to candelario?  A low average slugger to dfa?  Age, injury or other?

Steve Adams

• He was injured for a lot of his time in Cincinnati. I’m surprised he fell off so sharply, but it sounds like he played through a fair bit of pain, at least in year one. I liked the deal for them at the time. Well above-average hitter in three of the four seasons prior to signing, with the exception being a 2022 season wrecked by shoulder problems.

Cubbie

• Would the Cubs consider making a move for Gore?   What would it cost prospect wise?

Steve Adams

• Any team that needs pitching would love to. Cubs included. The cost would be obscene, though. Like Horton, Shaw and then some? You’re talking 2.5 years of someone who increasingly looks like a genuine No. 1 starter and who has the prospect pedigree that’s always suggested that outcome is in there.You’re not getting him without multiple 50-FV types and/or young big leaguers. Plus, the Nationals are going to want to contend sooner than later. They’re four seasons into this rebuild. It would need to be a massive return. Gore has the second-highest K% of any qualified starter. Even if you include all qualified relievers, he’s 18th in K% — and he’s doing it with a plus walk rate. He’s up there with Skubal and Wheeler in terms of K-BB% and trailing only Skubal and Cease in swinging-strike rate.

Not Mark P

• Quick and easy one. Geno back to Seattle. Maybe?

Steve Adams

• “Maybe,” sure. But as I said before re: Jeimer, lots of teams could use some 3B help. Yankees, Brewers, Tigers, etc. etc.

James Wood Money

• I think I’m worth more like Vlad G money right?  500 million extension or more.

Steve Adams

• Wouldn’t be surprised if that’s the sort of deal Boras was eyeing long-term. If you told me right now the price was over $300MM, I wouldn’t even blink. James Wood is a superstar.

Ken

• Do you see the A’s regretting the Joe Boyle-Jeffrey Springs trade?

Steve Adams

• There’ll be all kinds of tentacles to it, namely because I think they’ll trade Springs in the next 38 days and then we’ll have to sit here saying, “Well the A’s gave up Boyle, but then they got XYZ for Springs………”
• Side note, if the Rays have managed to fix Joe Boyle’s like … 30 (??) grade command, I just throw my hands up and wonder what they can’t do, pitching-wise.
• (Besides, apparently, get good production out of Aaron Civale, which still seems weird)

Clint Eastwood

• Do you think WAR is an overrated stat? Especially since it combines hitting, defense and baserunning equally. Being sub-par in one area can hide your skill in another when I’d honestly rather have a good hitter than a good defender.

Steve Adams

• I don’t think it needs to appeal to everyone. You’re finishing your question with an opinion — “I prefer good hitting to good defense” — when WAR exists to try to function in place of such subjective measures. It boils things down to runs created (whether on offense, defense, baserunning), assigns run values and tries to empirically place a value on a player’s entire skill set.It’s of course not flawless, but it’s not intended to be used as a be-all, end-all measure of value. MVP voters aren’t sitting down thinking, “Oh — got to fill out my ballot … let me just sort B-Ref or FanGraphs by WAR, and there we go, there’s my list. Copy and submit!”
• I think, like any stat, it’s useful within its lane and also has fundamental aspects that it can never capture

Cory

• How would you fix whatever mojo the Twins don’t have right now?

Steve Adams

• They still have that now 16-month-old rally sausage floating around somewhere?

Tj Friedl

• Should it be me, EDC, or Abbott representing the reds in the ASG?

Steve Adams

• Any of the three are defensible. Could be multiple. Elly should be there for sure.

Last Marlins Fan

• Who’s the better prospect? Heriberto Hernandez or Victor Mesa….

Steve Adams

• Mesa, but I don’t think either of them is a big league regular.

Ben Fried Rice

• With Senga down, has the Mets pitching been exposed after being shockingly good to start?

Steve Adams

• It’s just being tested. They’re more talented than they’ve been recently, but it takes a toll when you lose your ace, get some short starts from the other guys and then have to ask the bullpen to take on a bigger load. Leads to long mop-up stints for guys who shouldn’t be in the game anymore but need to save the rest of the group. It gets and looks ugly in a hurry.The Twins have had basically the exact same thing happen over in the AL. Lost two starters back-to-back, got some short starts from the remaining guys and it all snowballs quickly.

  Both teams were among the best all-around staffs in baseball from mid-April through mid-June, and both are better than they’ve been during the recent slide.

I Miss Vin Scully

• Is Alex Feeland the centerpiece of a trade next month or do you believe the Dodgers keep him?

Steve Adams

• I think they’ll be open to listening but aren’t going to shop him or anything. Generally how the Dodgers are with their very top prospects. I haven’t heard or read anything to suggest that they expressly won’t part with Freeland. They did more or less take that stance with Rushing (although for the right player, pretty much anyone is available)

AJ Preller

• Does having to watch James Wood go nuclear so soon after the Soto deal change my wheeling and dealing ways? Or am I still going for broke and sending our (now lacking) top prospects away for a short term fix?

Steve Adams

• AJ Preller trades so much that he’s bound to ship out a star. Hasn’t stopped him before. Trea Turner immediately broke out in Washington after that trade and Preller shrugged and went right back to working the market.It stings to see someone blossom into a star like that, but I believe it’s also a genuine strength for a GM/president to be able to have the courage to trade those guys anyway. Some execs clearly get paralysis when it comes to trading top-tier talent and frequently watch those prospects slowly bleed value until they’re devoid of real value.

  Preller has traded away so many “he should be untouchable” types, and more of them have gone the way of Luis Urias than James Wood.

  Plus, he indirectly has Cease and Michael King by way of trading Soto, and that’ll only create further value both in terms of contending seasons in ’24-’25 and potential draft picks if/when they reject QOs

Guest

• thoughts on the Miguel Vargas trade now?

Steve Adams

• I’m on record at the time — and even into the offseason — as saying people are too quick to dump on guys like Vargas, who exhaust their prospect/rookie status and don’t immediately hit the ground running.
• People were aghast that Fedde/Kopech didn’t net a “top 100 prospect” and “only” got Vargas and two others, while ignoring that Vargas was less than a year from being like the No. 40 prospect in baseball and had never gotten a true everyday look in L.A.I’m wrong about plenty of trades — PLENTY — but that was one where I thought the return was far better than a lot of people were giving it credit for.

Dean

• What are the chances the Rays flip HSK if he has a few weeks to show his arm is back?  More or less likely than trading Brandon Lowe?

Steve Adams

• Trading Lowe is way likelier. Kim has the opt-out on his contract that’ll make it very difficult to move him. I won’t go full broken record, but I say every week how opt-out guys are overwhelmingly difficult to trade.
• I think Lowe has a very good chance to be moved.

ORIOLES SCOUTING CUBS PROSPECTS

• That is the rumor going around.  Who might the CUBS want from Baltimore and why??  What would be a prospective package going back to the Orioles??

Steve Adams

• Every team scouts every other team. I don’t put tons of stock in “this team sent an extra scout to watch this team.” There are probably 10 teams that would like to trade for one or more of Zach Eflin, Cedric Mullins, Ryan O’Hearn, Andrew Kittredge, etc. etc.Orioles haven’t made that call yet, but it behooves them to be as informed as possible if they get there.

Marlins

• Houston wants a LHH, would Jesus Sanchez get Brice Matthews?

Steve Adams

• No, I don’t think Sanchez has that kind of value. I also think whichever LHH they get would be better off being able to play both infield and outfield.

Still an A

• Ryan McMahon was a big trade target last year and the Rockies screwed that up by holding onto him. Does he have any value going into the deadline this year and does he get moved?

Steve Adams

• I gave my colleague Anthony Franco a hard time last week since he wrote back on May 1 how the Rox missed the boat by not trading McMahon when interest was high in 2024. He had been terrible for nearly a calendar year at that point, with a ton of ugly trends (K’s up, hard contact down, walks down, all kinds of red flags)
• McMahon homered that night and has been on a TEAR since.
• All arrows pointing up … lower K%, more walks, better contact, all of it.
• Anthony saved the man’s career.
• To your point, yes, McMahon should have considerable value and the Rockies should 100% trade him.I am … 15%  sure they do.
• McMahon is hitting .268/.362/.518 since Anthony wrote that piece, ha (which, to be clear, I agreed with in full at the time)

Padres getting old

• Oh boy. So when Cease and King leave we get a few draft picks and Randy Vasquez from the Soto dominos.

Steve Adams

• Well, that and a deep NLCS run last year and a possible playoff run this season. And those picks will be in the top 40 of the draft, so they could immediately turn into high-end prospects (who, with Preller at the helm, are possible bait to acquire even more star-caliber players).The circle of life!

Chris Gimenez

• Should the Guards trade one of Manzardo or Santana??

Steve Adams

• I’d be open to trading Santana, who’s on a pricey one-year deal, regardless of contention status. Manzardo can move to 1B full-time. I don’t think the return would be great, though, so if it gets to the point where you’re potentially pissing off the clubhouse to add some Low-A relief prospect with a 3-5% chance of developing into a big leaguer, then it’s probably not worth it.But if Santana goes on a tear here and rebuilds some trade value, you’ve got to at least be open to it.

Senator Blutarsky

• If not traded, would Ohearn and or Mullins get a QO?

Steve Adams

• Both should.

Minister of Silly Walks

• Even if the Cards are contending, could you see them try to move Nolan Gorman. He’s a power hitting lefty but the Cards are already pretty good on the infield (Nado, Wynn, Donny, Willi with Saggese already up and JJ looking ready for AAA)

Steve Adams

• Gorman increasingly feels like a change-of-scenery guy to me, yeah

MostlyToasty1

• Who is a player not being talked about much that you think is very likely to be moved prior to the TDL?

Steve Adams

• Trying to think of a few off the cuff here. I already mentioned Jeffrey Springs. Mike Tauchman isn’t a big name or talked about much (despite playing on a clear seller) and is having a nice year. Edward Cabrera in Miami isn’t “very” likely but is plausible. Feels like the Astros will want to find a taker to buy low on Chas McCormick.Adolis Garcia?

D Hat

• How do you rate questions worthy enough to be asked in your chat?

Steve Adams

• There are 784 people actively in here at the moment, plus people coming and going the whole time. I just try to grab one I can answer quickly, usually. And obviously if I see a bunch of readers with different IP addresses (not usernames, haha … I think many don’t realize we can tell when you’re just changing your name) asking about the same topic, I’ll try to get that since it’s on a lot of peoples’ minds.

Steve Cohen

• Now that Chase Burns is making his debut tonight isn’t it overdue for  Bubba Chandler to make his MLB Debut?

Steve Adams

• Bubba has been overdue for about 2-3 months, but the Pirates clearly want to make sure he doesn’t get a full year of service in 2025.

TREVOR ROGERS

• If Rogers manages to pitch 4 more starts like the one from yesterday, could the Orioles be BOLD enough to attempt to FLIP him to recoup some players ( since Mike Elias sacrificed Stowers & Norby for this guy )?????

Steve Adams

• I don’t think it’s out of the question. If it makes you feel better, I’m not at all sold on Stowers being a legitimate building block in Miami. I liked Norby a lot coming into the season but it’s been a rough year.

Mike Rizzo

• If you’re shopping for a back end starter at this deadline, would you rather go for Soroka or Trevor Williams

Steve Adams

• Personally, I wouldn’t target either. Although I’d be happy to take Soroka and put him in the bullpen.

Mets

• What can the Mets receive for Blackburn?  Not enamored with his ability and would love to see him get moved.

Steve Adams

• I don’t think they’ll trade him at this point with Senga and Megill down
• Side note
• Twins president of baseball ops Derek Falvey said this to the Minneapolis Star Tribune yesterday:”Even when we had a couple injuries, there was a team that felt like they had some pitching depth and we had a brief trade conversation, ‘Hey, could we pick off some?’ And they were open to it. Within 72 hours, there were two different pitching injuries on that team that ultimately peeled them back from the market.”
• Gee, I wonder which team he could be talking about. Ha.
• Doesn’t mean a deal was close, but sure seems like the Twins were looking into Blackburn to backfill the fifth spot in the rotation with Lopez/Matthews out and Woods Richardson/Festa struggling.
• Alrighty, I’ve got to call it this week. I’m on X @Adams_Steve and Bluesky @adams-steve.bsky.social if you have more questions.If you want more opinions from the MLBTR team, you can learn about our Front Office subscription package and sign up here. In addition to ad-free viewing on the site and in the app, you’ll get weekly analysis/opinion columns from Anthony Franco and myself, a weekly mailbag column from Tim Dierkes, weekly fantasy baseball chats and columns with Nicklaus Gaut, two weekly subscriber-only chats (one with me, one with Anthony) where your odds of getting a question answered are much better, direct Q&A opps with Darragh McDonald, access to our new Trade Deadline Outlook series, access to our Contract Tracker, GM Tracker and our Agency Database, and more. It all starts at $2.99/month.

  Have a great week everyone!