This week's mailbag gets into a potential extension for Zach Neto, who could offer a Juan Soto-like package for Paul Skenes, Ken Rosenthal's recent article on the Nationals, potentially available outfielders and relievers, upcoming free agents who have helped and hurt their stock, and much more.
RJ asks:
What would an extension look like for Zach Neto?
Neto, 24, was the first player from the 2022 draft class to reach the Majors. As a rookie in 2023, Neto missed a month with an oblique strain and later missed more than that with a back injury. He didn't hit much as a rookie, but as a shortstop was still worth about 2 WAR per 150 games.
Neto avoided the IL in his breakout 2024 season and took off offensively around May, posting a 122 wRC+ from that point forward. He logged over 1,300 innings at shortstop and was worth 3.5 WAR. His baseball card stats were strong too, with 23 homers and 30 steals.
Statcast's Outs Above Average says Neto is a subpar defender in terms of range, suggesting he's not great at lateral movement. The more holistic DRS sees Neto as a positive (we discussed OAA and DRS last week). I don't get the impression his defense is considered a liability, and it probably won't limit his earning power much.
Neto underwent November shoulder surgery, making his season debut on April 18th as a result. He's posted a 141 wRC+ in 152 plate appearances since then, which ranks 32nd in the Majors and fifth among shortstops. He's on pace for 5.8 WAR per 150 games, which would make him a top-five shortstop in baseball. In the small 2025 sample, Neto has traded contact for power, with a pace putting him close to 40 bombs over a full season. Neto went from no red on his Statcast page last year to tons of it this year, with an expected slugging percentage that's actually higher than his already-excellent .542 mark. The second-phase breakout seems real.
The Angels could hardly be accused of service time manipulation, having promoted Neto less than nine months after they signed him out of the draft. Yet as it stands, he entered the season with one year and 170 days of Major League service, two days shy of two full years. That means Neto will go through arbitration four times starting with the 2026 season, resulting in free agency after 2029.
Let's fire up the MLB Contract Tracker, our robust tool designed for this purpose, included with your subscription!
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Feels like I’ve heard this debate about neto’s defense. Supposedly he has bad range, but you can’t see it in games. Also he’s not getting traded.
Rex – I don’t know what they base their stats on but he’s a good defender based on my eyeballs. He’s a keeper.
I love watching Neto play. He passes every eye test in my mind. Is Merrill’s extension something to compare for Neto?
@major
Initially I was going to say no, but comparing stats, Neto is a lot closer than I thought, and I could see him easily getting 20 million/yr.
@kellin. Talking halos said 5/140. I can’t remember who they comped. But it made sense. Also were talking about locking up o’hoppe.
Yes! I like O’Hoppe too. Angels would have a new identity if both were extended.
28/yr. Man the salaries have gotten out of control.
@kellin. I think they comped Swanson for neto, and Murphy for o’hoppe. It’s definitely around that or you wait for the prices to jump.
kellin: Out of control based on what criteria? Based on the amount of revenue generated by the players that fans pay to see, compensation is quite reasonable.
Merrill was extended for 10 years. Halos aren’t extending Neto at that price for 5 years and only gaining 1 year of his free agency. They’d be better off using up years of control at a discount and having him 1 less season and let him decline QO.
Blue Baron
Out of control based on what criteria?
=======================
No such thing in a capitalistic society. Owners that pay more than their products can generate will go out of business.
Which is why it’s not “out of control.”
@tigers3232 should’ve said extended, but it probably creeps up to 8/180.
If the Pirates could get a return for Skenes like the Nationals received from the Padres . .. . they should make the trade.
Shut up, Bob Nutting.
Take a look at the players the Padres traded to the Nationals for Juan Soto.
Absolutely no doubt. Any noise about the Pirates taking a publicity hit is just that, NOISE.
Pirates flat out suck. They should be listening to all offers for Skenes BEFORE he breaks.
I disagree with you about it being noise. Not that it *shouldn’t* be noise, but that it appears for Nutting marketing *really* matters. That’s the most reasonable/plausable explanation for why he’s vetoed at least one trade of David Bednar.
Trading Skenes before Chandler’s been promoted and shown he’s “the next Skenes” on top of the fact their offense is putrid and Jones is out for at least the rest of 2025 would definitely kill their current marketing plan.
Such a situation reminds me of what happened to the Nats marketing post-Soto and Scherzer/Turner deals. Before those deals, the Nats had banners of Soto, Scherzer and Turner hanging from a parking garage beyond the OF. After those deals, they had two banners left hanging there for at least a couple years. One had a photo of manager Davey Martinez and the other had a photo of Screech, the mascot.
Nutting’s clearly not “a baseball guy,” and focused on short term profits over setting the franchise up for long term winning/sustainability (and long term profit!). That’s why I don’t think the criticism of the Pirates GM really matters all that much. Even if they had a great GM who just “knew” what draft picks/trades were the right moves to make from a baseball perspective, Nutting’s focus on short term profits would eventually interfere with what the GM wanted to do.
Another really important of the trading Skenes “argument” is whether the Pirates have the proper coaching and player development systems set up to help the players they got in return maximize their potential. In terms of helping players develop offensively, IMO the answer is absolutely a resounding no.
Since Nutting bought the team, I don’t think any team in MLB has had more first round hitters who were outright busts, or have never matched their pre-draft precicted potential, than the Pirates. At just catcher alone they’ve had two outright first round busts who aren’t prospects or even in MLB anymore, and Davis’s development doesn’t look all that promising right now either. In the OF they’ve drafted eventual replacement level guys like Connor Joe.
I can see why many Pirates fans don’t want to trade away a known star #1 SP like Skenes for “potential” talent, There’s just not much evidence the Pirates can develop hitters, even if they’re allegedly “Can’t miss!” prospects. There’s also no evidence Nutting’s going to do what Nats ownership finally did 3-4 years ago: Fire a bunch of Rizzo’s hand picked people and force the adoption of more analytics and technology to go alongside the more traditional scouting/player development methods throughout the system.
At the time of the team’s sell off IMO many Nats fans saw the development of Harper, Soto, Rendon, Strasburg and Turner more like a case of players the Nats just couldn’t screw up than players who they’d really “developed.” (Regardless of whether that narrative was triue for any of those players or not.)
Until relatively recently, IMO the Nats also had a poor player development record overall. When they won in 2019 it was with one of the oldest rosters in MLB. Ted Lerner wanted to win a WS before he died, and he spent money in free agency to make that happen. It didn’t happen because the Nats had a good minor league/player development system like the Braves.
Back in 2019, the Nats top prospects were Robles, Kieboom, Garcia Jr., Mason Denaburg and Will Crowe. Their system also turned out rather underwhelming players like Fedde, Austin Voth and Giolito. Fedde and Giolito actually both became better pitchers *after* they went elsewhere. Robles’s most “sustained” success (both at the plate and in terms of the lack of truly boneheaded mental errors) happened after he got DFA’d and signed with Seattle.
IMO Pirates fans are truly in almost a “no win” situation because of ownership. At least now they get to watch Skenes every 5th day even though the team won’t likely challenge for a playoff spot before he’s gone in a few years.
Superb reply.
If Nutting wants to be the voice representing small market teams and make a difference for the new CBA, they will not trade him.
After 1-1/3 seasons and with more than four years of control left? Why not just trade the whole farm system?
No.
1-It’s almost impossible to get fair value for Skenes. Almost no minor league system has that type of value.
Keep in mind that Soto had 2.5 year left while Skenes has 4.5+ years left.
2-While SD did give up a king’s ransom, it is unusual for a trade to work out that badly. Wood, Abrams and Gore all turned out at the top of their expected value. How often does any team hit on 3-3 prospects.
@joebrady. I agree the price is going to be insane. Plus probably a good chance he’s out two years with Tommy john. With that being said I doubt a team does it. The reward isn’t worth the risk.
For every one trade we see like that, we see tons more where teams get junk that doesn’t work out.
“Absolutely no doubt..Pirates flat out suck”..I totally agree, but the last several high draft picks by the Pirates suggest they’re not too good at evaluating talent and would surely blow a Skenes trade.
Highly impractical for the Orioles to trade for Skenes. He’s only one pitcher. They need many pitchers.
They have SP, they just don’t have a sure fire #1 “ace” SP.
Trading for Skenes, and only giving up position players, would improve the O’s staff because it would allow them to move guys “down” into roles they’re probably better suited to do. They get Skenes and their staff eventually looks like this: Skenes, Grayson Rodriguez or Eflin, and two out of a mix of Dean Kremer, Sugano and Cade Povich as #4 and #5.
Povich was once the Orioles #14 prospect overall, and #2 pitching prospect. Only DL Hall was ranked higher in the system. Povich grades out as a 45 overall prospect with above average command, and he’s only 23.
You’re right that the O’s don’t have much pitching depth at the top of their minor league system, which IMO is why trading for Skenes makes even more sense than their deal for Burns last year.
Their top pitching prospect after Povich is Chayce McDermott. His control problems probably have him better suited for a bullpen role. After that, they’re waiting for kids like Michael Forrett, Keeler Morfe, Patrick Reilly and Nestor German who are all still at High A or AA. Their GMs problem is that he can’t “get to there from here.” He’s got offensive players who are (apparently) reaady to compete at the big league level and can’t wait for the young SP to develop. Getting Skenes, as long as he also has a healthy Rodriguez and Eflin solves that problem.
Their GMs problem is that he can’t “get to there from here.”
==========================
It’s often like that. That’s where owners need to step in and bridge the gap.
“the need for outfielders in KC is acute”, The need for outfielders in KC was acute in February when their projected corner OF was Melendez and Renfroe, but they didn’t do anything about it then. Matsushita is not a good fit, He’d have to DH some and Royals DH is crowded with Pasquantino, Sal Perez and India. Laureano is a good choice as he’s only making $4 million, if his 1.2WAR so far is real and he’s healthy. Orioles almost have to trade him, While he’s been valuable filling in there’s no place to play him when Westburg, Cowser and O’Neill return. Given their high pre-season expectations, can’t see the Os packing it in until the deadline, so I expect Mullins, a fan favorite, stays at least until then, but trading Laureano wouldn’t be seen as capitulation., Orioles need arms, however, and Royals don’t have much in minor league arms worth trading for Mullins unless maybe the Os would take Luinder Avila,
Would Boston pull the trigger for Skenes? Anthony, Mayer, etc. Who says No deal?
@mlbnyy. Won’t happen he will take alot more. That’s why it won’t happen. It would be double the crochet deal.
Boston, because of the risk of pitcher injuries.
I don’t think Neto would take any kind of discount given Trout’s contracts,
I think maybe like 12 years/$375M or something could get it done (4 years/$75M for his arbitration years and 8 years/$300M for his free agency years)
Takes him through his age 36 season, is relatively team friendly in today’s market, etc.
Sure. I mean why not give Zach Neto more than Mookie Bett’s contract just 4-5 years after it was signed.
He’s got HOFer with 9-10 WAR peak seasons written all over him, and that’s as his median outcome! What could possibly go wrong?
As someone who is not an Angels fan and thinks Neto is a good but not amazing player, I *absolutely* want them to sign him to like 15 years/$450M etc.
They should extend. They waste far too much money on 30+ year old players with limited value and time horizon.
That said, his awful K/W suggests that some reversion is in order, kind of like with Witt. It’s been a long time since LAA didn’t anything I thought was smart, so I don’t see an extension happening.
If any team has the high level players needed to trade for Skenes its the Cubs. 7 players in the MLB top 100 prospects is as good as it gets. I saw a proposal the other day involving Shaw, Horton, Alcantara and Busch for Skenes. Seems like an overpay to me. Pitching is too volatile to give up that much for just one guy, even if he is a true ace.