Steve Adams
- Good afternoon! Sorry to not get the queue up for advance questions a bit sooner. I'll get going at 3pm, but feel free to ask a question ahead of time if you prefer.
- Greetings! Let's get underway
Dodger Fan 1750
- Do you see a big trade splash happening soon with the Dodgers? Do you think Mason or Clause is possible for CP? If not pitching, what other trade do you see happening?
Steve Adams
- Everything deadline-wise, for every team, has to happen "soon" -- we're ten days out!But yeah, I think the Dodgers are going to add a reliever of note. I don't think Miller moves. Clase, I can see, but I wouldn't get my hopes up. If the Dodgers come away with Bednar or Helsley, that's still a notable upgrade. And I think both guys end up changing hands.
Coach
- Sandy Leon called up to ATL. Smoke = trade fire?
Steve Adams
- Leon just kind of reinforces the idea that Ozuna's not going to play a ton. His promotion in and of itself isn't a meaningful development so much as just one more piece of evidence to support what already felt inevitable: Ozuna will be traded.
Crusty Old Os Fan
- If a player has an option, and exercises it, is his current team allowed to submit a QO in order to recoup a draft pick?
Steve Adams
- I assume this is supposed to say "opt-out" and not "option"? Yes, a team can make a qualifying offer to a player if he triggers an opt-out in his contract and becomes a free agent
- Well -- as long as he hasn't received a QO in the past and spent the entire season on that club's major league roster/injured list.
Unqualified Reds Armchair GM
- Reds started Marte in right field yesterday. He seemed to handle it fine. Do they go bring back Eugenio to man 3b?
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MLBTR Chat Transcript
Mark P
- The Weekend Chat is back from a scheduling hiatus, as last Sunday night’s draft and the unexpected Nationals front office clearance led to a pair of postponements in everyone’s favorite discussion of beads, bees, and baseball.
But, on with the questions!
Squints
- You’re Matt Arnold, congrats! What are you going for at the deadline?
Mark P
- I think my first priority is to figure out how to change this Freaky Friday scenario, but if that can’t be fixed by July 31, I’d look to add lineup depth. Even with Hoskins not out for too long, I’d consider bolstering first base anyway, or at least try to get a versatile player that can help all over the infield
- I feel like “Willi Castro would be a great fit here” applies to like 20 teams, but he’d be a great fit in Milwaukee if the Twins decided to sell
Angels fan
- Arte is going to buy again isn’t he? The Angels are not a playoff team but I just know he will be delusional again and trade away prospects to make sure people keep coming to the stadium
Mark P
- Right now the Angels are a game under .500 and four back of a wild card. I agree with you that I doubt they’re getting into the playoffs, but given how starved the Angels and their fans are for winning, I won’t blame the club for trying to make some moves and stay competitive
Cashman
- is Lagrange and schlittler untouchables along side Lombard?
Mark P
- Lombard feels like the only prospect the Yankees absolutely wouldn’t part with.
Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Anthony Franco
- Good afternoon everyone, hope you're well!
- Sorry about dropping back to one subscriber chat these past two weeks. Prioritized getting those team-by-team deadline outlooks done before trade season really picks up
#1 Marlins Fan
- Sounds like all of the Marlins trade news has gone completely silent the last couple of days. How many of players do you expect to be dealt?
Alcantara
- When will the stove get warm? I am beginning to go crazy.
Anthony Franco
- Probably still another week before it really gets going. Most of the activity will take place in the July 29-31 window
- Barry Jackson with The Miami Herald had some details on the Marlins' thought process a couple days ago. Nothing especially surprising: listening on Cabrera, Sandy, Bender and Sánchez; would love to move Quantrill (obviously)
- I think the first four guys will all go. They should get a ton of hits on Cabrera given the scarcity of potential top-end starters. Feels like a sell-high opportunity with his injury history, and he's their trade candidate who'd get the biggest return
- I expect someone to add Fortes for a mid-level prospect. Might as well take what they can get for Faucher. Henriquez is probably their most interesting reliever but they might prefer to hold and let him build up a longer track record
Brewer Fan
- Why do prospects sign for less than slot value? I get why teams want to obviously but what stops a prospect from just saying pay me slot value?
Anthony Franco
- Just a lack of leverage, especially for college guys. If you're a college senior, you basically can either take whatever the team offers you or not play affiliated baseball
- High schoolers who go underslot usually do so because they're drafted higher than they'd go if it were just based on talent. The Braves went underslot with their first-round pick, but he was around 45th on Baseball America's pre-draft board. Slot value around that pick is in the $2M range
- So if the Braves come to him and say "hey we'll take you at 22 but you have to sign for $2.6M against a slot value of $4M," he's better off taking that than waiting for the slot value of a pick between 40-60. That discussion happens before they make the pick, because if the player says no, then the Braves just draft someone else
Ross Atkins
- Do you think Reid Detmers and Jo Adell might be available if the Angels are sellers?
Anthony Franco
- I do not. I think the Angels will buy as long as they don't completely tank in the next two weeks, and even if they sell, it'd be rentals
Ken
- What could the A's get for JP Sears?
Anthony Franco
- Three and a half years of control. Durable but it's middling velocity and below-average swing and miss. You could kind of write off his huge home run rate this year as a product of the Sacramento bandbox, but that was an issue for him in Oakland as well
- There'd be interest for sure but I think most contenders would view him as a low-end #4 or a fifth starter. Could see someone packaging a few mid-tier prospects but I'd be surprised if they got a huge headliner
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MLBTR Chat Transcript
Steve Adams
- Good morning! Hope everyone enjoyed the Derby last night! We’ll get going at 1pm CT today, but feel free to submit questions ahead of time.
- Greetings!
- Let’s begin.
Tim
- What’s a comparative contract to what bichette is looking for?
Steve Adams
- He’s going to hit free agency ahead of his age-28 season and as (assuming this keeps up) a well above-average hitter in six of his seven MLB seasons, with an injury-ruined 2024 campaign being the outlier.I don’t see any reason he wouldn’t be looking to top the deals signed by Javier Baez (6 years, $140MM), Trevor Story (6/140), Dansby Swanson (7/177) and Willy Adames (7/182) — especially since he’s going to hit free agency a year younger than all of them were when they got to the market.
Brian
- Biggest Phillies need at deadline…OF help or bullpen arms?
Steve Adams
- Bullpen help, but it doesn’t have to be one or the other.
Steve Cohen
- Who would you list as the leading Candidates for ROY in each league? Does Jacob Misorowski have a legitimate shot?
Brewers Fan
- Assumig Misiorowski wins the ROY, how does that change his status with us? Do we lose a year of control? He wasn’t promoted early enough to get a draft pick through the promotional program thing right? The rules around that stuff always confuse me…
Steve Adams
- I love Misiorowski, but Rookie of the Year talk is pretty premature with only five starts. I think it’s fine that they took the buzzworthy rookie and put him on the All-Star team, but to call him the ROY favorite when Drake Baldwin is hitting .279/.351/.479 with plus defense in 65 games feels aggressive.Miz could absolutely end up getting there, but he needs to stay healthy and needs to remain as effective as he’s been, which isn’t a surefire thing for a guy who’s walking 11% of his opponents and benefiting from a .160 BABIP.
Misiorowski will earn a full year of service if he finishes first or second in ROY voting. The Brewers wouldn’t get a pick for that since he wasn’t called up until midseason.
Curious A’s Fan
- Is JJ Bleday the A’s best (realistic) trade chip at the deadline?
Steve Adams
- They’d be selling low, but I can see it. Jeffrey Springs is a more realistic trade option who’d net a decent return, though.
My Name
- With Buxton’s comments about having a no trade clause, will reporters be done with the trade rumors?
MLBTR Chat Transcript
Steve Adams
- Good morning! I’ll get started at the usual 1pm CT time, but feel free to send in questions ahead of time.
- Greetings! Sorry for the slight delay. Let’s get going
Yankees
- -3.5 on the Blue Jays, 9-16 over the last 25. Time to panic?
Steve Adams
- Panic? No. Time to go upgrade both the lineup and the rotation? Yeah. Losing Clarke Schmidt really hurts that staff. There’ll be several options to discuss with regard to third base. Yankees fans seem to really want Suarez, but Ryan McMahon fits them really nicely also and would be a manageable CBT hit for the next few seasons.
s45d64
- Who are the sure bets to be moved in Pittsburgh?
Steve Adams
- I’ll be surprised if all of Andrew Heaney, Isiah Kiner-Falefa and David Bednar aren’t traded. Dennis Santana only slightly less so.
- Caleb Ferguson will go, too.
Steve Cohen
- Shouldn’t the Marlins call up Deyvison De Los Santos to play first base? Ramirez has worked out very nicely.
Steve Adams
- He’s not really hitting well overall this season, and his best work came earlier in the year. He’s at .199/.287/.365 over the past two months.I like that De Los Santos is chasing a lot less and walking a little bit more, but his contact rate is still in the gutter. I’m more bullish on Ramirez in general.
Johnny Mo
- Surely the Cards are sellers now?
Steve Adams
- Losing 5 of 6, including a sweep at the hands of the Pirates, can’t feel good … but they’re five over .500 and 1.5 back of a Wild Card spot. That’s not a team that’s going to sell aggressively. If they spiral out of control from here and are suddenly 3-4 under .500 and 5+ games back of a Wild Card spot in 2-3 weeks, then sure.
Austin Jackon’s Catch In Boston
- Do guys like Santana, Thomas, and Sewald have any trade value? It’s looking like a lost season in Cleveland
Steve Adams
- Santana is still hitting at an average-ish level and is generally beloved in clubhouses. He’s overpaid, but if Cleveland eats some of the money left on his contract, I can see him netting a modest prospect return.I thought the Guards should’ve non-tendered Thomas — said to underscore my low expectations, not pat myself on the back or anything — and even I’m stunned by how far he’s fallen this year. He’s a DFA/release candidate more than a trade candidate.Sewald’s ERA is ugly, but the K%, BB% and SwStr% are all good and we’re talking a small sample of innings. They won’t get a ton, but yeah, he’s tradeable.
Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
- Hey everyone, hope you enjoyed the holiday weekend!
- Steve stretched his into a four-day weekend so I'm in today and he'll take the usual Friday slot. Going to stay around an hour on this one as a result
- Let's get rolling
Cactusflair
- Why didnt the Nats actually try to improve the team in this past off season?? Felt like outside of Sirotka signing they did nothing.
Denise Dunbar
- Do you think the Nats' first pick in next week's draft will be even more telling after the Rizzo firing? It seems to me if they pick Holliday, they're saying the rebuild is ongoing for quite a while. In that instance, I think they should trade Gore if they can get a haul for him. Conversely, if they take one of the college lefties, to me that means they think they could possibly contend for a wildcard next year and might signal they plan to spend more this offseason. Interestingly, they sent out a season ticket holder survey about 10 days ago asking lots of questions about how satisfied we were with the direction of the team. I lambasted ownership, but not management, in responses. But I also wonder if this survey and its overall results factored into their decision making?
Anthony Franco
- Two of a number of Nats questions in here. Martinez getting fired didn't really surprise me but I was a little taken aback that they moved on from Rizzo. I get why it happened, but I didn't see that coming
- I actually think their offseason made sense. They felt they were still a year off from being competitive and didn't think a Danny Jansen signing or Eugenio Suárez trade would've moved the needle. Hard for me to disagree with that. They probably should've been involved at the top of the rotation market, but that's as much an ownership question as it is a front office one
- Obviously, their series of low-cost bullpen pickups especially blew up, but I actually think they've shown progress this year in the more meaningful stuff (Wood's emergence as a superstar, Gore's development, etc.)
- I wouldn't read too much into the #1 pick as a sign of their long-term direction. Even if they do take Holliday (or Eli Willits, I guess), it's not uncommon for top high school draftees to get to the majors within two or three years. It'd just be a sign that they think those guys are better prospects than the top college pitcher on their board
Opt-Out
- Is this the trade deadline someone with an opt-out or player option finally gets traded?
Anthony Franco
- Happened with Scherzer a few years ago, though he preemptively exercised the option to make it happen. I think someone will take the risk on Lugo this summer
- He's obviously going to opt out if he's healthy, $15M if he does blow out would suck but isn't catastrophic (it's what teams gamble on the current version of Scherzer and Verlander and Alex Cobb), and the supply of starting pitching is really light
Edward Cabrera
- What does a trade package look like for me and who do you think will be calling Bendix the most about it? Is there a world where Sandy and I get dealt to the same team?
Anthony Franco
- He fits anywhere really (aside from the deep rebuild teams like Colorado and the White Sox). Cheap, amidst a potential breakout, two and a half seasons of control
- Yankees, Cubs and Padres are the first three that come to mind but there aren't many places he could land that would surprise me
- Seems less likely that someone would do the Alcantara/Cabrera package deal. They're both good enough to support a strong return individually, and the Fish would probably be better off splitting them up and shopping each individually. No guarantee they move Cabrera at all
-
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
- Do you want to spend today at a cookout with your friends, family and neighbors? Or do you want to spend it talking to a Canadian about baseball on the internet?
- Use your freedom to decide on that and I'll be back at 2pm Central. Feel free to drop questions in the meantime.
- Hello.
- Do you hear the chimes of freedom where you are?
- There's construction going on outside my home, so I can barely hear myself think.
- Let's enjoy discussing baseball together.
Western skies
- Happy four days after Canada Day! The Braves are saying all the right things, but they’re going to more than tweak before the deadline, right? I’ve thought for some time they will use the All-Star stuff as a showcase/diversion before making any big moves. Then what?
Steve
- Do you think the Braves sell after the Schwellenbach news? Would Olson to the Red Sox for Casas plus some other pieces be possible?
notsohotlanta
- As the Braves continue their quest to prove they are pulseless ,when does the sale/trade begin? When does Snitker and the hitting staff exit?
Darragh McDonald
- Barring a red-hot streak in the coming weeks, I do think Atlanta needs to accept their fate and sell. I assume that, internally, they are aware things aren't going well.
- I understand why AA felt the need to project outward confidence. You don't want to tell your players you're waving the white flag.
- But making a run with no Sale, Schwellenbach, Lopez or AJSS is really hard to see.
- FanGraphs gives them just a 13.5% chance of making the playoffs as of this moment. Unless they crack off a 13-game winning streak or something, I think they will do some selling, at least of impending free agents.
- I don't think Olson will be available.
- As for Snitker and the staff, that I don't know. The World Series victory surely gives him a lot of rope but things have been trending down for a few years now.
-
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MLBTR Chat Transcript
Steve Adams
- Good morning! We’ll get going at 1pm CT, but feel free to send in questions ahead of time, as always.
- Good afternoon!
Grover
- if anyone does pick up candelario who will it be
Steve Adams
- Brewers, Astros, Mariners could all take a more or less free look while they wait for more appealing options to become available on the trade market.
Dinelson Lament
- Assuming he stays healthy and reaches free agency, what type of contract might Skubal command in the 2026-2027 off season?
Steve Adams
- Something north of $400MM
Ben
- Will Eugenio Suarez cost a top 100 prospect, considering no top 100 prospects were traded at last year’s deadline, including for multi-year controllable players, while Geno is a rental?
Steve Adams
- “Top 100” prospect are subjective. There are several different lists, and the gap between the No. 100 prospect and the No. 130 prospect is pretty negligible. The Tigers probably had Thayron Liranzo as a top-100 guy when they got him as the Flaherty headliner last year. He was generally considered a 50 FV prospect, which is where all back-of-the-top-100 guys are. Within a few weeks, he was on most top-100 lists.Top-100 rankings are far more volatile than a lot of people give them credit for, and they kind of inherently misrepresent that there’s a larger gap between 100 and 150 than there really is. (Or between, say, 60 and 100, for that matter).At any rate, I don’t think Suarez will command a 50 FV type of prospect, but a 45 type headlining the deal wouldn’t surprise me.
Utah Fan
- Who gets traded by the TWINS at the deadline, if their recent decline continues?
Steve Adams
- Willi Castro, Chris Paddack, Harrison Bader, Danny Coulombe all make sense. Someone might grab Ty France as a cheap RH bat off the bench.
Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Steve Adams
- Good afternoon! Sorry to start a bit later than usual today. Schedule moved around a bit with Darragh having a well-deserved day off. We'll get going at 3:30pm CT, but feel free to ask questions ahead of time, as always.
- Good afternoon! Let's get underway
El Chupacabra
- If the Royals were to trade Seth Lugo today, how much more - or less - would the return likely be vs. if they waited until the trade deadline?
Steve Adams
- I don't think the return would be materially different. You could say the acquiring team might be forced to give up more to compensate for the extra month of control, but there'd also be fewer teams bidding, which could impact the price as well. The extent to which those offset each other can really only be theorized upon.For what it's worth, I also don't expect the Royals to trade Lugo. They're intent on contending, and GM JJ Picollo was recently quoted on record when discussing how important back-to-back playoff appearances would be.
Further, as I often say, player options/opt-outs are so hard to navigate in trade talks. Eventually we'll see a prominent player with an opt-out at season's end traded, but these guys never really move in actuality. The team trading for Lugo would have to know he's either going to pitch well and opt out or that he'd get hurt and/or see his performance tank and forgo the out... thus saddling them with an unwanted salary on the 2026 books.
- That makes it really hard to agree on prospects to be exchanged in the deal, as the Royals will want to market him like a playoff-caliber starter but the acquiring team knows that if he bombs, they're essentially taking on a bad contract. Pricing in that downside makes the trade less appealing for Kansas City. And, again, the Royals probably don't really want to trade Lugo in the first place.
Stockholm, AZ
- What are the Diamondbacks gonna do? That was a crap series against Miami, and now they’re under .500. Season beyond rescue? I had such high hopes..
Steve Adams
- I just have a hard time seeing them wind up in genuine contention with Carroll out, Burnes out, and Zac Gallen pitching more like Zack Godley. Even if this iteration of the D-backs got to the postseason, could they feel good about a playoff rotation of this version of Gallen and Merrill Kelly leading the way, followed by one of Pfaadt or E-Rod? And without Justin Martinez or AJ Puk in the bullpen? It just feels like a soft reset (trading Suarez, Kelly, Gallen, etc.) is kind of inevitable to me.
RoxTalks
- Does the Rockies' nepotism hiring of Monfort's son to be executive VP basically ensure this team will be bad forever? It is extremely difficult to continue to support this team. Cannot believe the league allows stuff like this.
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MLBTR Chat Transcript
- Beads, bees, stew preparation, and maybe even some baseball discussion….we’ve got it all here in the latest edition of the Weekend Chat!
ChrisMC88
- What should the mets prioritize more at this point, pitching or offense.. both need attention.. or even maybe look deeper into their hitting coaches.
Mark P
- Things have looked rough in general for the Mets over the last couple of weeks, but their rotation is still the bigger need than their lineup. I expect the front office to pursue help in both areas, but it seems like the patchwork that has been the Mets’ rotation is simply starting to fray
Brian
- Do u think Crawford(Phillies prospect) has better change to play for Phillies or be traded by deadline this year???
Mark P
- Seems like a better chance that he’ll stick with the Phillies, since they need OF help already.
John
- Is there a world there the orioles don’t sell?
Mark P
- Because baseball is baseball, the O’s could turn around and win 11 of their next 13 games and nobody would bat an eye.
That being said, it would take an extreme hot stretch like that in July to get the O’s fully back into the playoff picture. Feels like they just dug themselves into too big a hole too early.