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Archives for September 2012

Heyman On Possible Manager, GM Turnover

By Dan Mennella | September 19, 2012 at 7:45am CDT

What began as a season that figured to have little managerial and front-office turnover at its conclusion has gone in the opposite direction over the course of a long — and for some teams very disappointing — summer, writes Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. Here's a look at the teams that could make shakeups on the bench and/or in the front office:

  • Red Sox manager Bobby Valentine seems very likely to be dismissed, as "everyone in baseball is sure he is a goner." Boston likes Toronto manager John Farrell as a possible replacement, but Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos has reiterated that organization policy is to preclude personnel from leaving for a lateral move. GM Ben Cherington, meanwhile, appears safe, though other tweaks could be made in the front office.
  • Marlins manager Ozzie Guillen's fate is up in the air, but Miami is more likely to shake up its front office. Factions have reportedly taken shape among the organization's top executives.
  • The Angels came into the season with very lofty goals after spending heavily in free agency. But owner Arte Moreno is reportedly unhappy with the team's poor play, while some say GM Jerry Dipoto and manager Mike Scioscia haven't hit it off so far, with the firing of hitting coach Mickey Hatcher earlier this year an apparent point of contention. The pricey balance on Scioscia's contract may make firing him too difficult, though, so his departure could ultimately be his own decision. 
  • Indians manager Manny Acta has a "very real chance to be fired," as Cleveland has slipped into its second consecutive second-half slump. GM Chris Antonetti, though, is probably safe, as he's well regarded and hasn't yet been on the job for two full years.
  • Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski appears to be safe, but manager Jim Leyland, whose contract expires at the end of this season, may not be brought back, as owner Mike Ilitch is displeased with the way this season is going after spending on Prince Fielder in the offseason. 
  • Pirates manager Clint Hurdle is safe after instilling a new attitude in Pittsburgh, but GM Neal Huntington could be in trouble, especially if the team finishes under .500 for a 20th consecutive season.
  • Yankees manager Joe Girardi is safe despite his frustrations with his team's second-half struggles, and the "popular" GM Brian Cashman is in no trouble.
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Boston Red Sox Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers Los Angeles Angels Miami Marlins New York Yankees Pittsburgh Pirates

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NL West Links: Dodgers, Rockies, Headley

By Dan Mennella | September 18, 2012 at 9:42pm CDT

The NL West was pretty much settled entering tonight's action, with the first-place Giants enjoying an eight-game lead, but the Dodgers were very much in the Wild Card hunt, only a game behind the Cardinals. Here's the latest …

  • Dodgers GM Ned Colletti maintains that regardless of where the team finishes in the standings, he'd make the slew of midseason trades over again if given the chance, writes Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles.com. "Just like the players that are traded, you can't measure this on what they do in 2012," Colletti said. "As time goes on, you can evaluate the trade for a lot of different reasons. But with ownership allowing us to be aggressive, we decided we would take chances and we would go for it.
  • The Rockies are hoping to hire Marlins special assistant Mark Wiley as their new director of pitching, writes Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com. In this role, Wiley, who previously worked for the Rockies before joining the Marlins, "would have responsibility and authority over all parts of the organization, from scouting and drafting, through development, and all the way to bringing pitchers to the major leagues."
  • If you're looking for an NL MVP sleeper, Padres third baseman Chase Headley deserves strong consideration, writes Jeff Sanders of the North County Times. Headley has been on a second-half tear, leading the Majors in both homers and RBIs since the Midsummer Classic entering Tuesday night's action, to go along with 6.6 fWAR on the year. It seems hard to believe now that Headley was a trade candidate leading up the July deadline, but his stock will probably never be higher than it is heading into the offseason.
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Colorado Rockies Los Angeles Dodgers

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Central Links: Hafner, Leyland, Astros

By Dan Mennella | September 18, 2012 at 8:07pm CDT

The Tigers are holding their collective breath after righty Max Scherzer exited Tuesday night's start prematurely because of shoulder pain. Scherzer, who leads the American League in strikeouts, is scheduled to undergo an MRI. More on the Tigers in this batch of links …

  • The Indians are expected to decline their $13MM club option on DH Travis Hafner for 2013, writes Jordan Bastian of MLB.com. Hafner, sidelined since early August due to a back injury, is trying to get back on the field for what could be his final appearances as a member of the Tribe. With a career line of .278/.382/.508, the 35-year-old has posted solid offensive numbers when healthy, but staying on the field has been an issue, as he's missed chunks of time in each of the past five seasons.
  • Tigers manager Jim Leyland said he is focused on his team's playoff chase rather than his own contract status, writes Anthony Odoardi of MLB.com. Leyland's deal expires after this season, but he maintains he has held no discussions with Detroit about this future: "I haven't discussed my situation with anyone nor has my situation been discussed with me. And I don't want to discuss my situation with anyone nor do they want to discuss it with me right now. We're trying to win a division."
  • The Astros hope to pick their next manager by the end of next week, but they may have to wait till after then to announce the decision, writes Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. If the selected candidate is on a team that's still in the playoffs, Houston will wait till that team's season is over, McTaggart explains.
  • Astros owner Jim Crane reiterated that he's not expecting Roger Clemens to pitch this season, tweets Zachary Levine of the Houston Chronicle.
  • While some consider the second-place Tigers a disappointment after a splashy offseason that saw them land top free agent Prince Fielder, Detroit has played pretty close to where some advanced metrics suggest they should be, explains Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs.
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Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers Houston Astros Travis Hafner

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NL East Links: Davis, Guillen, Utley

By Dan Mennella | September 18, 2012 at 6:18pm CDT

A few links of note out of the NL East, where the first-place Nationals' hunt for a first playoff berth was placed on hold tonight due to a rain postponement.

  • Mets manager Terry Collins said that the organization supports first baseman Ike Davis and that there are no questions about his work ethic or receptiveness to coaching, tweets Marc Carig of Newsday. Earlier today, we heard that the Mets will be open to trading Davis during the upcoming offseason, in part because they have concerns about his commitment. Davis quickly refuted that allegation.
  • Marlins manager Ozzie Guillen said he expects to return as Miami's manager next season, though he understands why some are speculating about his job security, according to the Associated Press (via ESPN.com). "At this moment everybody in the organization ought to be up in the air," Guilen said. "It's not up to me. If it's up to me, I'd love to be here." Guillen is under contract through 2015 after signing a four-year deal prior to this season.
  • Phillies second baseman Chase Utley may start a few games at third base before the season is over, according to Todd Zolecki of MLB.com. Though the sample would likely be too small for GM Ruben Amaro to arrive at any definitive conclusions as to whether the switch could be made long-term, it may nonetheless factor into his offseason planning, as Amaro said the market for third basemen — via trade or free agency — is "not very good."
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Miami Marlins New York Mets Philadelphia Phillies Ike Davis Ozzie Guillen

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AL East Notes: Escobar, Orioles, Chavez

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | September 18, 2012 at 4:39pm CDT

The Blue Jays announced that they’ve suspended Yunel Escobar for three games because the shortstop played with a homophobic slur written under his eyes in Spanish this past weekend. Here are today’s AL East notes, starting with the Blue Jays…

  • Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com suggests the Blue Jays will make Escobar available in trades again this coming offseason. Knobler expects Escobar will draw interest, despite his poor offensive performance and the perception that he can be a difficult teammate. The Blue Jays had planned to move Escobar to second base, but were apprehensive about having to deliver the message to the 29-year-old, Knobler reports.
  • When Orioles executive VP Dan Duquette got started in Baltimore, he said he wanted to improve his team's on-base percentage and acquire talented players who weren't getting opportunities elsewhere. As Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun explains, Duquette has found unexpected contributors, but hasn't improved the team's on-base percentage. Expect Duquette to look for players with above-average on-base percentages this coming offseason.
  • Endy Chavez's presence has made the Orioles’ search for outfield help less urgent, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports (on Twitter).
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Baltimore Orioles Toronto Blue Jays Endy Chavez Yunel Escobar

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Managerial Notes: Bowa, Bogar, Scioscia

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | September 18, 2012 at 4:25pm CDT

The latest managerial notes from around the Major Leagues…

  • Astros owner Jim Crane said he hopes to have decided on a manager by the end of next week, Zachary Levine of the Houston Chronicle reports (on Twitter). Crane said the Astros have interviewed five or six candidates and have a few upcoming interviews, MLB.com's Brian McTaggart reports (on Twitter).
  • Larry Bowa won't be the Astros' next manager, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports. Bowa said he and Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow agreed the team needs a younger manager. The 66-year-old Bowa added that he was "very impressed" by Luhnow when the two spoke earlier in the month.
  • Red Sox bench coach Tim Bogar will interview for the Astros' managerial opening, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports. The Astros are expected to conduct the interview in the Tampa Bay area when the Red Sox visit the Rays. The interview will take place tomorrow, McTaggart reports (on Twitter). Bogar was also a candidate for Houston's managerial opening before the 2011 season. 
  • Nationals third base coach Bo Porter, Rays bench coach Dave Martinez and interim skipper Tony DeFrancesco have already interviewed for the Astros job.
  • Angels GM Jerry Dipoto continues to support manager Mike Scioscia, Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times reports. Dipoto pointed to Scioscia's "great track record of success," and declined to speculate about the manager's job security in detail. Scioscia is under contract through 2018.
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Boston Red Sox Houston Astros Los Angeles Angels

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Central Notes: Indians, Tigers, Lohse

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | September 18, 2012 at 3:20pm CDT

Dusty Baker will manage his 3,000th MLB game when the Reds visit the Cubs at Wrigley Field tonight. It’ll be a familiar setting for Baker, who managed the Cubs for four seasons before moving on to Cincinnati. Here are the latest links from MLB's two central divisions…

  • Indians president Mark Shapiro indicated that the team will have the ability to spend this offseason (Twitter link). However, Shapiro questions the depth of this particular free agent market. The Indians could be looking to sign an outfielder, and this year’s free agent class is particularly strong in the outfield.
  • Anibal Sanchez of the Tigers and Wandy Rodriguez of the Pirates are among the trade deadline acquisitions who have recovered from shaky beginnings in new cities, Paul Casella of MLB.com writes.
  • St. Louis Post-Dispatch writers Derrick Goold, Rick Hummel, Jeff Gordon and Tom Timmermann weigh in on whether the Cardinals should look to retain Kyle Lohse for 2013. The writers note that the Cardinals have starting pitching depth and need to spend on other areas, such as a possible extension for Adam Wainwright. Nearly three quarters of respondents to a recent MLBTR poll suggested the Cardinals should make Lohse a qualifying offer when he hits free agency after the season.
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Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers St. Louis Cardinals Kyle Lohse

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Jason Grilli

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | September 18, 2012 at 1:47pm CDT

Established closers such as Jose Valverde, Brandon League and Jonathan Broxton will draw interest when they hit free agency this offseason. But those relievers aren't pitching as well as Jason Grilli, the Pirates right-hander who is enjoying a career year in Pittsburgh as he approaches his 36th birthday. Grilli’s breakout season figures to pay off a few months from now when he signs his next contract.

Jason Grilli - Pirates (PW)

Grilli has put together a dominant season in Pittsburgh largely because of his ability to generate strikeouts. He’s fourth among MLB pitchers with 13.8 strikeouts per nine innings (minimum 50 innings pitched) for a total of 84 strikeouts in 54 2/3 innings. He’s also fourth on the Pirates in strikeouts, ahead of Kevin Correia and Jeff Karstens, who both spent most of the year in Pittsburgh’s rotation.

Grilli’s fastball averages 93.7mph, a career high. Opponents swing and miss at 14.3% of his offerings, also a career high. While he’s not quite in Craig Kimbrel/Aroldis Chapman territory when it comes to generating swinging strikes, he's ahead of swing and miss relievers such as Jonny Venters and Fernando Rodney. 

Both left-handers and right-handers have struggled against Grilli, the Giants’ first round pick in 1997. He strikes out 43.1% of the left-handed hitters he faces, fourth among all relievers and tops among those headed for free agency. Right-handers have slightly more success; they strike out 31.6% of the time.

Overall, Grilli’s numbers are phenomenal: a 2.96 ERA with 13.8 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 and a 31.9% ground ball rate in 54 2/3 innings. Though 2012 has been Grilli's best season, he has had success at the MLB level before. He pitched effectively for Pittsburgh last year and his strikeout rate has risen in each of the last six seasons (excluding 2010, when Grilli didn't pitch).

He settled for a minor league deal leading up to the 2011 season, after missing all of 2010 with a leg injury. This offseason, he’ll be one of the top free agent relievers available. He’ll be guaranteed millions and a big league roster spot. It’s a question of how much money and how many years.

His agent, former MLB star Gary Sheffield, should push for a multiyear contract despite his client’s age (in case you’re wondering, the slugger turned agent was hitless in two career at bats against Grilli). Sheffield will note recent multiyear contracts signed by non-closing relievers such as Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier and Grant Balfour. Parallels also exist between Grilli and Joaquin Benoit, who missed the entire 2009 season then pitched his way to a three-year, $16.5MM contract with a dominant age-32 season.

It must be noted that the market for relief pitchers seems increasingly hostile. Multiyear contracts for free agent relievers dropped from 17 in 2010-11 to six last offseason. General managers will surely ask themselves if Grilli, who will be 36 by Opening Day 2013, can replicate his 2012 numbers. 

In my view the floor for Grilli is a one-year deal with a base salary in the $3-5MM range. For someone whose career prospects seemed to be fading two years ago that’d be a notable contract, but there’s a good chance he can do even better. I expect a two-year deal in the $10MM range for Grilli, who won’t be tied to draft pick compensation thanks to the sport’s new collective bargaining agreement. He’s pitching at an elite level and that’ll be reflected in his next contract.

Photo courtesy of US Presswire.

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Free Agent Stock Watch Pittsburgh Pirates Jason Grilli

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New York Notes: Davis, Mets, Jeter

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | September 18, 2012 at 12:12pm CDT

Andy Pettitte will return to the mound against the Blue Jays tonight — assuming the Yankees aren't rained out in New York. Meanwhile, the Mets will start Matt Harvey against the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Here are today's New York Notes…

  • Ike Davis was surprised and confused to hear that the Mets are concerned about his nightlife, Andy Martino of the New York Daily News reports. “I have never missed games or not been ready to work because of anything to do with staying up too late,” Davis told Martino. Adam Rubin reported today that the Mets will consider trade offers for Davis, in part because they have questions about his lifestyle.
  • Andy McCullough of the Star-Ledger suggests the Mets will consider trading any player not named David Wright this winter (Twitter link). The Mets will reportedly consider trades for Davis and Lucas Duda this offseason.
  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post explains how Derek Jeter’s durability impacts other players on the 2012 Yankees. Jeter's hitting .323/.366/.444 in a league-leading 665 plate appearances.
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Poll: Should Kyle Lohse Get A Qualifying Offer?

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | September 18, 2012 at 10:04am CDT

Kyle Lohse’s strong season is part of the reason the Cardinals are on track to return to the playoffs for the third time in the last four seasons. Lohse, who starts against the Astros tonight, has a 2.81 ERA with 5.8 K/9, 1.6 BB/9 and a 40.2% ground ball rate in 192 innings over the course of 30 starts this year. The 33-year-old right-hander has an eye-catching 14-3 record with an average fastball velocity of 89.4 mph and a swinging strike rate of 7.1%.

Despite his production, he’s not expected to return to St. Louis when he hits free agency this offseason, as the Cardinals already have an assortment of options for their 2013 rotation. Instead, the Scott Boras client figures to seek another multiyear deal in free agency when his four-year, $41MM contract expires after the season.

The Cardinals could make him a qualifying offer, even if they don’t expect him to return in 2013. Extending Lohse a qualifying offer would be the only way for GM John Mozeliak to obtain a compensatory draft pick next year. Without an offer, Lohse would leave and the Cardinals would get nothing.

If St. Louis does make Lohse an offer, he’d be tied to draft pick compensation and one of two things would happen: he’d accept and get locked in to a one-year deal at a salary of $13MM-plus, or he’d decline in search of a multiyear deal, setting St. Louis up for draft pick compensation in 2013. 

The Cardinals will have other needs to address this offseason, such as bullpen help and a potential extension for Adam Wainwright, so spending $13MM on another starter might be considered a luxury. But they could move Lohse, who would generate trade interest on a one-year deal in the $13MM range. 

If the Cardinals are willing to take this risk, they can set themselves up for draft pick compensation in 2013. If not, they can keep it simple and let Lohse depart without making him a qualifying offer. What should they do?

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