Our last few updates on Jeff Samardzija came back on Monday, but the Cubs pitcher's name is back in the rumor mill today, with an earlier report suggesting that the Diamondbacks may no longer be in the mix now that they've agreed to send Tyler Skaggs back to the Angels. Here are the latest updates on Samardzija:
- There was no resolution to Samardzija's long-term solution following his sitdown with the Cubs today, but team president Theo Epstein called it a "great meeting," according to Jesse Rogers of ESPN Chicago. "There is no trade imminent," Epstein said. "We'll see what happens. We hope he's here for a long time."
- Sources tell Rogers that if Samardzija were to sign an extension, he'd be seeking a deal that would pay him as if he's a free agent, as a trade-off for agreeing to stick with the Cubs through their rebuilding process. Based on Samardzija's reported asking price on a new contract and the team's reported asking price in trade talks, neither an extension nor a trade seems all that likely right now.
Earlier updates:
- The Cubs are meeting again today with Samardzija to discuss a possible extension, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post. According to Sherman, the Cubs aren't hearing what they were hoping for in trade talks, which might make the team more likely to pursue a long-term deal. However, the right-hander isn't overly anxious to commit long-term since he's not sure when the Cubs will contend, says Sherman (Twitter links).
- Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times writes that due to the Cubs' high asking price for Samardzija, it seems likely the club will ultimately revisit trade discussions in the summer rather than completing a deal during the offseason.
Unless Samardzija has a major breakout season he will never bring back the haul the cubs wants. He’s no David Price.
Since Shark has been a starter (all qualified pitchers 2012-2013):
Price: 9th FIP, 10th xFIP, 11th SEIRA
Shark: 30th FIP, 18th xFIP, 19th SERIA
Obviously he’s no David Price nor a Cy Young winner; however, they’re not asking for the package that Price is either. They’re asking for a package for a pitcher somewhere between 18th and 30th best in the game of baseball.
“According to Sherman, the Cubs aren’t hearing what they were hoping for in trade talks”
Perhaps because other teams realize that he isn’t a very good pitcher? I’m not saying he is terrible, but he is not a top of the rotation pitcher which is what they are making him out to be.
His career WAR is 3.1 in 558 innings.
yes, the 5.8 WAR over close to 400 IP in the last two years is irrelevant. 33rd in WAR among SP. Nah, let’s focus on what he did as a reliever instead.
Actually it’s 2.8 the last 2 years (I’m using rWAR, I assume you’re using Fangraphs)
Non-standardization is the problem with WAR. With WAR being the sabermetric darling (which I wholeheartedly support and believe is bringing analytic decision making to the masses), you would think fWAR, with its weight toward peripheral stats, would be the standard bearer.
We wont have this problem next year! Fangraphs and baseball reference agreed on common standard for WAR, yay!
I haven’t heard that. Pretty good to know. Wonder if they are coming up with new formulas.
Fangraphs put out a detailed article in march 2013, I can’t find it at the moment but is you Google “fangraphs agree with baseball reference war” and look for the 2013 articles you will find more info on it.
see march 28, 2013 article on fangraphs entitled “unifying replacement level”
Unifying replacement level =/= unifying their WAR metrics. Setting both to a .295 winning percentage to define was a replacement level team is ain’t the same thing as making one WAR statistic. Baseball-reference is never going to convert their WAR away from run-based and fangraphs is going to stick to DIPS theory-WAR and include what they are right now, RA9-WAR.
“Nah, let’s focus on what he did as a reliever instead.”
Not focusing on what he did as a reliever. I’m putting up career stats which is starter + reliever.
Also I got bad news for ya if you think his reliever years were worse, his ERA is nearly a half run higher as a starter. Though he has a better WHIP and K/BB ratio as a starter.
Samardzija is no ace and is not worth the cub’s asking price. He has a career FIP of 3.94 in 558 IP, his fWAR has never toped 3.0 in a season, his traditional starts are even worse (ERA of 4.19, W/L 29-35) and he’s only topped 200 IP once in his career. If you use rWAR his numbers are even worse.
Not shocked. There are better pitchers on the market and the Cubs want an ace like return. For For that cost cost I’d rather have Price, Lee, Hamels, or maybe Masterson
Price will cost much more. Lee/Hamels will cost the same in prospects but, reportedly, you also pay all their contract (and they’re not available). Masterson is not available.
Of course you’d rather give up a supposed “Shark package” for Price, that’s because a “Shark package” is an underpay and wouldn’t land Price.
Last I had heard, Theo was asking for an ace like return for Shark.
Red Sox should look at this, we have the prospects and a abundance of SP. Plus Theo knows are farm system somewhat. How about Middlebrooks, Ranaudo, Workman, and Webster for him. I think that is a great package of young arms and you get a 3B with 25-30 home run power to sweeten the pot. Then this leaves room to resign Drew and then Cecchini can step in without having to find playing time for Middlebrooks.
The Red Sox might need more than just Jeff back in return now that I think of it. It’d try and get them to add Castro in the deal i proposed. Would add more prospects if it was for Jeff and Castro, if its just Jeff than it might be too much just for him.
With seven years of team control left and a very affordable contract for at least the next 4 years the Cubs will not sell low on Castro now. Castro is the type of player they want to build around.
Cubs aren’t letting Castro go unless the haul is unheard of. I’d trade him for Webster and either Ranaudo or Barnes. Cubs already have two young 3B with 25-30 hr power in Olt and Bryant.
That would be a terrible trade for BOS.
That’s a huge overpay for the Red Sox. No way would they do that. No way is he even worth that.
After reading my first post i thought the same thing way too much for just Jeff. That’s why I did a second post saying they would have to throw in Castro or someone like him. I would do this trade if was for Jeff and Castro or a top prospects, like C.J. Edwards.
I was against giving him an extension, but if we aren’t gonna get much for him sign him long term now. One less piece to the puzzle at the major league level.
If the Diamondbacks were going to give up Eaton and Skaggs, the cubs should have done a swap for those two and Samardzija and Schierholtz. The D-Backs have inquired on both.
Jeff Samardzija absolutely has a lot of value.
xFIP bunches in IFBs and OFBs into the same FB group. That being said, an xFIP of 3.4 looks worse than the actual hit types he garnered. For example, he forced 8% more IFBs last year (23% OFBs in total), saw an uptick in groundballs to 48%, and maintained a high velocity on his FB. His control still was good, in addition.
Samardzija, because of his favorable hit types, his swing/miss capability, and control of his pitches, looks to be quite the asset, especially when considering there are 2 years left of team control. There is no reason to think Samardzija cannot exhibit an RA/9 in the upper 2s to lower 3s given variance and his actual talent level.
Rather than using fWAR, rWAR, career FIP, etc., contextualizing each metric to determine why they came to be needs to be taken into account. Samardzija is damn good, guys.
Preach on Charlie! As someone who has watched Jeff since his rookie season he is pretty underrated in my opinion. Even though he is 29 that arm is still young with lots of life left and room to improve. He is a fierce competitor and if he gets in a winning atmosphere I believe he will blossom. I would be plenty fine keeping him long term but my preference would be to trade him if he isn’t willing to budge in his contract demands but only if it is a high quality return which I believe he can bring.