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Archives for 2013

Yankees Making Tanaka A Top Priority; Won’t Pursue Ervin Santana

By Steve Adams | November 8, 2013 at 4:43pm CDT

The Yankees are planning to make Japanese ace Masahiro Tanaka a "top priority" this winter and are considered the team to beat in bidding for the 25-year-old, according to Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports. Writes Passan: "If re-signing Robinson Cano is priority No. 1 for the New York Yankees this offseason, securing the rights to Japanese starter Masahiro Tanaka is No. 1a." 

The Yankess "are going to be bold" in bidding for Tanaka, Passan continues. Previously, Passan has spoken with executives who believe that Tanaka's posting fee could top $75MM, although we still don't quite know how the posting system will work going forward. Major League Baseball and Nippon Professional Baseball have been working on alterations to the posting process for quite some time, and George A. King III of the New York Post reported earlier today that a resolution could still be several weeks away. Under the previous system, Tanaka could have been posted on Nov. 1.

Passan writes that Yankees officials aren't concerned about previous failures of Hideki Irabu and Kei Igawa on the big stage in New York, adding that they liken Tanaka's makeup and personality to that of Hideki Matsui.

The Yankees are in the market for two starting pitchers to pair with CC Sabathia and Ivan Nova next year, Passan continues, and they're intrigued by Ubaldo Jimenez, Matt Garza and Dan Haren. The Yankees are not expected to be in the market for Ervin Santana, he adds, as they don't feel that he would fit well in New York. Jimenez and Santana would cost the Yankees a draft pick due to the fact that each is all but certain to reject the qualifying offers received on Monday. Garza and Haren did not receive qualifying offers.

The Yankees figure to have some deep-pocketed competition for Tanaka, as the Dodgers are expected to be aggressive in pursuing him, and he's on the Angels' radar as well. Despite the success of Yu Darvish, reports have indicated that the Rangers aren't expected to be big-time players for Tanaka, of whom they don't think as highly as Darvish. The Giants, another team that has spend liberally of late, aren't expected to be serious players for Tanaka either, despite having some interest.

The Yankees' motivation may be greater than that of any other suitor, as Tanaka fits within their desire to reduce payroll below the $189MM luxury tax threshold. Tanaka's posting fee won't count against that tax, and his average annual value could be notably lower than the current crop of Major League free agent pitchers.

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New York Yankees Dan Haren Ervin Santana Masahiro Tanaka Matt Garza Ubaldo Jimenez

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Rangers Notes: International Free Agents, Moreland, Lewis, Cruz

By Steve Adams | November 8, 2013 at 3:35pm CDT

In a special piece for Gammons Daily, Jamey Newberg examines the Rangers disappearance from the international free agent market from 2000 to 2005 and explains how re-entering that market in the middle of the last decade has saved the franchise. Martin Perez signed in 2007 for more money ($580K) than any Rangers international signee had received since 2000. Yesterday, he signed a four-year extension that could total seven years and $32.55MM based on a trio of club options. Here's more on the Rangers…

  • Newberg's piece above was inspired by an observation made by Nick J. Faleris of Baseball Prospectus (No. 11 on the list to which I've linked). Faleris points out the savvy nature of the Rangers' 2013-14 international spending spree. The Rangers blew past the new CBA's imposed cap for international free agents on the first day and will face harsh penalties that prevent them from spending more than $250K on a single international free agent next summer. However, starting in next year's international signing period, the penalty for the type of overages the Rangers took on this year doubles. In other words, any team that copies Texas' strategy will have its spending limit handcuffed in the summer of 2015 and the summer of 2016. The Cubs, of course, employed a similarly aggressive method in July.
  • Rangers GM Jon Daniels addressed reporters, including MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan, earlier today on a number of topics. Daniels said the team is receiving a number of calls on Mitch Moreland from teams that consider him a buy-low candidate. However as Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram tweeted, Daniels doesn't feel Moreland's power is something he can give up on (Twitter link).
  • Also from Sullivan's piece, Daniels said the team has made an offer to right-hander Colby Lewis (presumably a minor league deal), and they've been in contact with Nelson Cruz's agent, Adam Katz. The Rangers fully expect Cruz to decline his qualifying offer.
  • Daniels says the Rangers are willing to disucss their middle infield depth with other clubs. Other teams still have high regard for Jurickson Profar, he added.
  • ESPN Dallas' Richard Durrett also has some intel from Daniels' morning comments. Durrett reports that the team has internally discussed position switches for some of their infielders but has yet to approach any players with the idea.
  • Regarding the team's budget, Durrett quotes Daniels: "We have the ability to make the club better. I don’t know that we’re going to be the biggest spenders, but I don’t really want to be. I don’t think that’s the way to build it anyway."
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Texas Rangers Colby Lewis Jurickson Profar Mitch Moreland Nelson Cruz

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Free Agent Profile: Dan Haren

By Steve Adams | November 8, 2013 at 2:23pm CDT

After a down season that saw the Angels decline their team option on him, Dan Haren signed a one-year, $13MM contract with the Nationals with the hope that a return to the Senior Circuit could boost his free agent stock. Unfortunately for Haren, 2013 brought more of the same, for the most part, and he's now set to head into free agency two seasons removed from his last ace-caliber campaign.

Strengths/Pros

Few pitchers in the game can boast better command than Haren, who has averaged more than 1.9 walks per nine innings just once in the past six seasons. Haren walked just 4.3 percent of the batters he faced in 2013, trailing only Bartolo Colon and Bronson Arroyo among free agents.  Haren-Dan

Haren has only been on the disabled list only twice. While both of those instances have occurred in the past two seasons, Haren seemed perturbed to be placed on the disabled list this season, implying at the time that the move was made more to give him a mental break than due to any true physical ailment in his shoulder.

Whether or not there was an injury severe enough to merit a DL stint, it's hard to argue with Haren's results after the time off. Upon being activated from the DL, Haren rattled off a 3.29 ERA over his final 15 starts (and one relief appearance in which he picked up a save in a 15-inning marathon game). Over those 16 appearances, Haren was in vintage form, striking out 84 batters against just 18 walks in 87 2/3 innings of work. Opponents batted just .228/.271/.355 against Haren in that time.

Both xFIP (3.67) and SIERA (3.60) feel that Haren's ERA should've been at least a full run lower than the 4.67 at which he finished.

National League clubs looking to sign Haren will be pleased with the offense he provides. The average NL pitcher hit .135/.167/.174 in 2013. Haren, who was an excellent hitter in his college days at Pepperdine, has a lifetime .215/.240/.312 batting line in 353 plate appearances. That line isn't pretty, but it's leagues better than most of his mound brethren can boast.

Haren recently turned 33, so while he's on the wrong side of his prime, he's not so old that there's no hope for him to sustain his second-half success over the course of a full a season next year. He didn't receive a qualifying offer from the Nats, so there's no draft pick compensation tied to Haren.

Weaknesses/Cons

One of Haren's main problems is that he's become increasingly homer-prone since 2012. Always a fly-ball pitcher, Haren's ground-ball rate dropped to a career-worst 36 percent in 2013. For the second straight season, he averaged more than 1.4 homers per nine innings, and that was coming in a pitcher-friendly stadium in the National League. Haren's average fastball velocity has clocked in at 88.7 mph over the past two seasons, which could have something to do with the increase in homers.

Haren's strikeout rate has dropped off in recent years. After averaging 8.7 K/9 with the Diamondbacks, he dropped to 7.2 K/9 with the Angels from 2010-12. This season with the Nationals, his strikeout rate climbed back to 8.0 per nine, but the move back to the NL played a large role in that jump. Haren whiffed nearly half of the opposing pitchers that he faced after facing just four pitchers in 2012. His K% against non-pitchers in 2013 (19.7 percent) was only a marginal improvement over his 2012 mark (19.1 percent).

Hitters are squaring up the ball with more frequency when facing Haren. His opponents' line-drive rate has risen in each of the past three seasons, climbing from 18.8 percent in 2010 to 19.5 percent in 2011 to 20.7 percent in 2012 to 21.9 percent in 2013.

From 2005-11, only CC Sabathia threw more Major League innings than Haren. Once a virtual lock to provide 220+ innings, Haren has failed to top 180 in each of the past two seasons. The 169 2/3 innings he totaled in 2013 are the fewest he's thrown in any full season.

Personal

The baseball offseason lines up well with Haren's interests, as he's an avid fan of the NFL and college football. His wife and two young children live in California, and Haren expressed the difficulty he found in being away from them to the Washington Post's Adam Kilgore late in the season: "From a personal standpoint, it was really tough," Haren said. "I hadn’t been away from my kids. It’s a year of their lives I’ll never get back. From that standpoint, it’s sad."

Market

In a candid interview with MASNsports.com's Dan Kolko, Haren recently said that he's never had as much self-doubt as he did in 2013, and coping with his struggles in a city where he knew few people was difficult at times. At a few points, things got so bad that he debated retirement. Haren acknowledged that he won't have as much say in where he lands this offseason as he did in 2012-13, but his preference is to pitch on the West Coast. His hometown of Monterey Park, Calif. is just minutes outside of Los Angeles and is a mere 120 miles from San Diego. Having spent 2005-07 with the A's, the Bay Area is a familiar environment as well, and both Oakland and San Francisco could look to add a veteran starter this winter.

If Haren can't find a home on the West Coast, many other teams will be looking for rotation help. The Pirates have shown a recent affinity for starters whose xFIP numbers dwarf their ERA, and Haren fits that mold to a tee. A return to the Nationals could make sense given his strong finish and the fact that the city no longer feels so unfamiliar. The Orioles, Yankees, Blue Jays and Phillies could all use rotation help, though their hitter-friendly environments may not be a fit for a pitcher whose home run rate continues to climb. Earlier today it was reported that the Twins have reached out to Haren as well.

Expected Contract

Haren salvaged some of his free agent value with a solid second half upon his return from the disabled list, but he's still likely in for a pay cut on 2013's $13MM salary. Another one-year deal seems to be in the offing for he and agent Greg Landry of CAA Sports, and Haren's frank remarks about the unease he felt playing in an unfamiliar city could suggest that geography will play a larger role in his 2014 destination than it would in most free agents' decisions.

Haren has already banked $61MM in his career, so he could settle for less cash if it meant pitching on the West Coast. Ultimately, while he hasn't resembled his former ace self over the past two seasons, he's done enough to earn more than fellow former ace Roy Halladay. My expectation is that Haren will sign a one-year, $10MM contract.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Free Agent Profiles Washington Nationals Dan Haren

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Latest On Tim Hudson

By Steve Adams | November 8, 2013 at 1:32pm CDT

Tim Hudson had the surgical screw removed from his injured right ankle yesterday and should be cleared to run within a couple of weeks, according to David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (Twitter link). Hudson's recovery is on schedule, according to O'Brien. Earlier in the week it was reported that Hudson has an offer to return to Atlanta, but as many as eight teams have already reached out. Here's the latest on the longtime Brave as he and agent Paul Cohen of TWC Sports test the free agent market…

  • Despite already having six starters for five spots, the Red Sox "really want" Hudson, a person familiar with the team's thinking told Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Heyman adds that the Braves still value Hudson as a veteran in a surprisingly young clubhouse.
  • Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets that the interest is mutual between Hudson and the Red Sox. Hudson is close with catcher David Ross and wants to win a World Series ring before he retires, Passan adds.
  • Executives have told Passan that Hudson could command as much as a two-year, $24MM contract on the free agent market (Twitter link). Hudson is benefiting from not being tied to draft pick compensation, but a deal of that size would still shatter most pundits' expectations.
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Atlanta Braves Boston Red Sox Tim Hudson

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Twins Notes: Willingham, Johan, Rotation, Sano

By Steve Adams | November 8, 2013 at 12:47pm CDT

Josh Willingham's three-year, $21MM contract is the largest free agent contract the Twins have ever issued, but agent Matt Sosnick told Parker Hageman of Twins Daily that Willingham actually turned down a more lucrative offer from a team that was farther west than the Twins are from his Alabama home. More from Hageman's piece and some other Twins-related items below…

  • Sosnick also told Hageman he "loves the Twins" and that there's no GM in the game he respects more than Terry Ryan. His respect for the Twins' honesty and player development led him to turn down more money for German outfield prospect Max Kepler back in 2009 to sign with Minnesota. Kepler still signed for $800K, which was, at the time, the largest bonus ever signed by a European prospect.
  • Within his piece, Hageman notes that he also spoke with Ryan about the upcoming offseason. Ryan "flinched" when talking about signing pitchers on the wrong side of 30 to multiyear deals, as they're more likely to break down.
  • The Twins are one of several teams to reach out to Johan Santana's agent and request his medicals, writes La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune. Santana's agent, Ed Greenberg, told Neal that his client "still loves Minnesota" and enjoyed working with pitching coach Rick Anderson, who is still serving the same role on the Twins' coaching staff.
  • Neal also reports that the Twins have checked in with the agents for Ervin Santana, Ricky Nolasco (who is represented by Sosnick), Dan Haren and Scott Feldman, though their specific level of interest in each is unknown. Ryan told Neal that he thinks the quick turnarounds of the Indians and Red Sox will be good for non-contending teams' chances at signing free agents, as they served as examples that a team's fortunes can change quickly. The Twins won just 66 games in 2013 — just two and three games fewer than the Indians and Red Sox won in 2012, respectively.
  • Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reported earlier in the week Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano are done for their respective seasons in the Arizona Fall League and Dominican Winter League. Buxton has been battling a left (non-throwing) shoulder strain, and Sano has been diagnosed with a strained UCL in his throwing elbow. Sano's injury sounds more serious, but he's been examined by Dr. James Andrews, who agreed with the team's medical staff that no surgery is necessary. Paul Molitor, the newest member of the Twins' coaching staff, told Berardino that Sano's elbow troubles aren't related to his throwing mechanics.
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Minnesota Twins Dan Haren Ervin Santana Johan Santana Josh Willingham Miguel Sano Ricky Nolasco Scott Feldman

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International Links: Posting System, Bello, Watanabe

By Steve Adams | November 8, 2013 at 12:10pm CDT

Major League Baseball and Nippon Professional Baseball are still trying to come to an agreement on changes to the posting system for Japanese players, but that agreement could be "several weeks away," writes George A. King III of the New York Post. Under the previous system, Japanese teams could've begun posting players on Nov. 1, making the restructuring a significantly negative impact for teams targeting Rakuten ace Masahiro Tanaka this winter. With Tanaka expected to command such a large financial commitment, teams stand to benefit from knowing sooner rather than later whether or not they have a chance to land him. Here are a few more notes from the international market…

  • Independent league right-hander Hideyoshi Ohtake has a tryout with the Red Sox, according to a report from Yahoo Japan passed along by Patrick Newman of NPBTracker (via Twitter).  Ohtake's fastball reaches 94 mph on the radar gun.
  • Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reports that 15-20 teams scouted Cuban catcher Yenier Bello's showcase earlier this week. Bello took batting practice and gave teams a glimpse of his work behind the plate, including making throws to second base and third base.
  • Also at that showcase, writes Nicholson-Smith, were right-hander Rogelio Armenteros and first baseman Jozzen Cuesta. Armenteros threw for scouts and topped 90 mph with his heater. The pair of Cuban prospects is represented by the Wasserman Media Group.
  • Side-armer Shunsuke Watanabe is going to try to make the jump to Major League Baseball at age 37, according to an Asahi report passed on by NPB Tracker's Patrick Newman. Watanbe's delivery is one of the lowest to the ground in pro baseball, Newman notes (his second tweet includes a video), but his pitches top out around 70 mph (Twitter links). Watanabe has spent 13 season with NPB's Chiba Lotte Marines, totaling a 3.65 ERA with 4.8 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9. Despite his unorthodox delivery, he's spent nearly his entire career as a starting pitcher.
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Uncategorized Masahiro Tanaka Shunsuke Watanabe Yenier Bello

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Reds To Sign Brayan Pena

By Steve Adams | November 8, 2013 at 9:27am CDT

The Reds have agreed to a two-year contract with catcher Brayan Pena, according to Enrique Rojas of ESPNDeportes.com. Pena, who is represented by the Kinzer Management Group, will earn at least $1.25MM in the first year of the deal, though complete financial terms aren't yet available.

Pena, 32 in January, batted .297/.315/.397 with four homers as the primary backup for Detroit's Alex Avila in 2013. A switch-hitter, Pena was significantly better as a left-handed hitter (.801 OPS) than as a right-handed hitter (.608 OPS) — a trend that he's shown throughout his career.

Pena joins incumbent catchers Devin Mesoraco and Ryan Hanigan on Cincinnati's 40-man roster, which figures to be one more catcher than the team needs. Hanigan projects to earn $2.3MM in arbitration next season, so the Reds could look to trade him elsewhere or non-tender him following a season in which he batted .198/.306/.261 — easily the worst numbers of his career. Mesoraco has certainly failed to live up to his lofty prospect status at this point, but he's still just 25 years old and is not yet arbitration eligible, so I'd imagine the Reds don't consider him the odd man out.

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Cincinnati Reds Transactions Brayan Pena

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Arbitration Breakdown: Chris Davis

By Matt Swartz | November 8, 2013 at 7:53am CDT

Over the next few months, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.

Chris Davis had a fantastic 2013 campaign, which will earn him a large raise on his $3.3MM salary. As a hitter reaching arbitration for the second time, the primary determinants of Davis’ 2014 salary will be his 2013 statistics, which will be used as a basis to determine his raise. Unlike first-year arbitration eligible players whose entire history is generally discussed, players who reach arbitration eligibility in subsequent years have their raises determined by their platform year statistics, and their previous salary serves as the only relevant summary of their historical performance.

This benefits Davis immensely, who had a career year in 2013. He led the American League in home runs (53) and runs batted in (138), while putting up a solid average of .286. Playing time is very important to arbitration panels too, which also will be an argument in favor of a big raise for Davis. He played in 160 games, coming to the plate 673 times last year.

Few other sluggers have matched this performance going into their second years of arbitration eligibility. In the last seven years, the largest raise went to Jacoby Ellsbury, who got a $5.65MM raise from $2.4MM to $8.05MM in 2012, after hitting .321 with 32 home runs and 105 runs batted in, while swiping 39 bags. Ellsbury also helped his case with 729 plate appearances that year.

In most other cases where an elite slugger reached arbitration eligibility for the second time, clubs have elected to sign multi-year deals. While we are able to use multi-year deals with adjustments to fill in the some of the gaps this leaves in our analysis, it makes it difficult to find precisely comparable players for teams and agents to use in negotiations. In some of these cases, we can look at the first year salary in the multi-year deal, but take it with a grain of salt. In some of these cases though, a more valuable piece of evidence is what the salary figures were when the player and team exchange numbers in advance of a potential hearing.

For instance, Ryan Howard is a decent comparable for Davis. Howard signed a three-year deal going into his second year of arbitration eligibility in 2009. He was coming off a $10MM salary, and hit .251 (much worse than Davis’ .286) but his 48 home runs and 146 RBI are the only thing remotely similar in recent memory (among second-year arbitration eligible players) to Davis’ 53 home runs and 138 RBI. Howard got a $5MM raise his second year as part of that deal, but this came after exchanging numbers with the Phillies. He had requested an $8MM raise and the Phillies proposed just a $4MM. Given that Davis had a much better average and five more home runs, plus the fact that Howard’s raise is five years old, Davis should easily clear $4MM.

Matt Holliday’s raise of $5.1MM in 2008 (including his pro-rated signing bonus) as part of a multi-year deal is also relatively comparable. While he only hit 36 home runs, he hit .340 and knocked in 137 runs, while stealing 11 bags. Again, the fact that six years has passed since this deal, plus the fact that it was a multi-year deal, suggest that this will not be a great comparison. However, given the similarity of Holliday’s and Howard’s effective raises, it stands to reason that adding a few years of inflation should get Davis a solid gain beyond this amount, especially since he hit more home runs (which is the most important stat in arbitration outside of playing time).

Somewhat more recently, Josh Hamilton hit .359 with 32 home runs and 100 runs batted in going into 2011, which earned him a $5.5MM raise as part of a multi-year deal. He had been offered a $5.45MM raise already and had countered with a request for a $8.75MM raise, even larger than Howard’s $8MM request two years earlier.

Putting all these together, it is pretty clear that Davis is in his own territory and seems very likely to break Ellsbury’s record Arb-2 raise of $5.65MM. The model actually predicts that Davis would get $10.8MM, but given the new limits of “The Kimbrel Rule,” we are only letting him break Ellsbury’s record by $1MM, giving him a $6.65MM raise to $9.95MM.

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Arbitration Breakdown Baltimore Orioles Chris Davis

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Yankees Notes: Cano, Rodriguez, Closer, Starters

By Jeff Todd | November 7, 2013 at 11:22pm CDT

Baseball's best rivalry … Dodgers-Giants? Yanks-Sox? Or, perhaps, Scott Boras-Jay-Z. As Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com writes in a fascinating piece, the rapper-turned-mogul's challenge to baseball's old school super agent is a real one, but the success of the gambit could turn on whether or not Jay-Z lands Robinson Cano a contract that befits his status as the game's premier free agent. Here's more on Cano and the Yanks:

  • There has been no recent movement in negotiations between the Yankees' front office and Cano's representatives, reports Dan Martin of the New York Post (hat tip to Mike Axisa of River Ave. Blues). Martin also explains that Cano has yet to get a read on what other teams might be willing to pay.
  • Indeed, Cano has acknowledged that no other clubs have made an offer, according to Christian Red of the New York Daily News. Of course, that is far from surprising at this early stage.
  • Meanwhile, the Alex Rodriguez grievance proceedings remain a constraint on the club, according to manager Joe Girardi. As the Associated Press reports (via the Boston Herald), Girardi said that the club needs to know as soon as possible whether it needs to acquire a full-time third baseman for next season.
  • The skipper also declined to annoint David Robertson as the team's closer, saying "we've got to see what we can put together as a team as a whole before we do anything." The back of the bullpen may not be the Bombers' biggest area of need, but there are a lot of guys with closing experience hoping that it is on the radar.
  • If the Yanks lose Hiroki Kuroda and/or fail to land Masahiro Tanaka, power pitchers could make up the backup plan, the New York Post's Joel Sherman wrote yesterday. Sherman notes Josh Johnson and Dan Haren as possibilities, while his Post colleague George A. King III says that the club could be in on Ubaldo Jimenez.
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New York Yankees Robinson Cano

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Phillies Have Made Offers To Free Agents, Will Not Wait On Ruiz

By Jeff Todd | November 7, 2013 at 9:05pm CDT

Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. says that the club has "already made offers to several players," reports MLB.com's Todd Zolecki. Though no specific offer targets are identified in the piece, it seems that Amaro intends to act aggressively. As Zolecki notes, that is what happened back in 2011, when the Phils moved fast on Jonathan Papelbon. 

One player that could be feeling the heat from Amaro is longtime Phils catcher Carlos Ruiz. Amaro said he feels there are "several candidates that could be our catcher next year," Zolecki reports. And the Philly GM also made clear that he had no interest in a prolonged dalliance with Ruiz, as occurred with Jimmy Rollins in 2011.

"There will be very little chance of bringing Chooch back" if that kind of delay takes place, Amaro told Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Daily News, because the club "can't afford to miss out on other opportunities." Though Amaro indicated that he believes Ruiz is still a fit with the club, he says his front office is "perusing the landscape of catching right now."

Philly may need to make a sizeable commitment to get Ruiz to commit early. He seems to have had his fair share of interest and would be a solid fallback for teams that miss on Brian McCann and Jarrod Saltalamacchia, or prefer a more reasonably priced alternative. Most recently, we learned that the Rockies are expected to dangle multiple years at the veteran over the coming days.

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Philadelphia Phillies Carlos Ruiz

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