Cubs senior vice president of player development and scouting Jason McLeod was once an assistant GM for the Padres, and he tells FanGraphs' David Laurila that the Friars would not have taken Javier Baez if he had fallen one pick to them in the 2011 draft. "The Cubs beat a lot of teams on Javy. They certainly beat the Padres," McLeod says. "I have to admit we weren’t set up to take him with our pick. Thankfully, the Cubs were smart and I don’t have to wear that one too bad." Baez, of course, is now among the best prospects in baseball, while the player the Padres took instead, second baseman Cory Spangenberg, struggled somewhat last year in Double-A — he hit .289, but struck out three times as often as he walked and hit for very little power. Here are more notes from the National League.
- The market for Cuban free agent infielder Aledmys Diaz will likely be set by the Dodgers' signings of Alexander Guerrero (four years, $28MM) and Erisbel Arruebarrena (five years, $25MM), Scout.com's Kiley McDaniel writes. The market for Cuban players is different from the markets for other player types, McDaniel argues, so it makes sense to compare Diaz to other Cuban players to determine his value. Diaz should hit well for average, and should be a decent defender at second base. Teams believe Diaz will likely receive a contract worth about $5MM-$7MM per season for five or six seasons, although the contracts of Cuban free agents can be difficult to predict.
- The Mets appear set to head into the season with Ruben Tejada as their shortstop, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. They don't appear likely to add Stephen Drew, and they haven't had serious trade talks recently with the Mariners (who have Nick Franklin and Brad Miller) or Diamondbacks (who have Didi Gregorius and Chris Owings). The Mariners and Diamondbacks are asking for a lot in return, Sherman says, since it's tough to find a good shortstop, and all four players have options.
Set with Tejada? Im not buying it. Mets should give Cleveland a call about Jose Ramirez since he’s the odd man out the way their middle infield is set up.
I agree, they clearly aren’t since they are still talking to teams about potential trades and since drew is still out there.. I don’t buy it in general cause if tejada has a year like last year or gets hurt who’s the backup? If they bring someone in he’s at least the backup SS/2B
Here’s my thing with Tejada: he’s 24. If he spent the last 2-3 years in AA he would be considered a prospect still. I really think it’s ridiculous to label him a bust and give up on him right now. As a 20 and 21 year old he completely overachieved, then he has one bad season and everyone throws him under the bus. I’m not saying he is definitely going to turn things around but Matt Harvey didn’t pitch a full season until he was 24. What if they had called him up early and he had a 5+ ERA? Should the Mets have given up on him because he didn’t perform?
The only problem I have with that logic is tejada doesn’t have one defining tool.. He’s not fast, has no pop, and is an average defender.. will see what he’s got that’s for sure
Oh, no doubt. I’m not saying it’s perfect logic, but you could say the same for Murphy. I’m actually excited to see Tejada. I think he is exactly what this lineup needs. Murphy and Wright are the only contact hitters in this lineup and if you are going to justify the K rate of guys like Granderson and Young you need guys on base for RBI potential. Not every guy on the team can steal 20+ bases or hit 20+ home runs. You need role players who aren’t going to blow up the stat line but will do what’s needed. I think that’s what Tejada has been and will be, given the chance
The elephant in the room here that nobody seems to be talking about is Matt Harvey. As soon as he went down for the year, it was already tanked. Thus, the NEED to overpay for a SS went bye bye. None of those guys mentioned is going to sell any more tickets than Tejada, so there is no need to make that trade. Next season is an entirely different story, but why throw good money after bad when it won’t affect the bottom line? It won’t change any Mets fans minds, it won’t affect the win total much, and it won’t sell many more tickets.
I know that it’s unpopular, but Sandy IS playing his cards right here. Now with that said, IF we are in the same boat next year, I’ll be the first to throw the Wilpons to the wolves, again. At that point, none of this hold any water and if they are still playing this game, THEN it’s all on the Wilpons and only massive boycotting from the fans will do any good.
On the flip side, they might also be better off grabbing Stephen Drew for 3-4 years at below market value now (especially with a protected 1st rounder this year), rather than competing in next years shortstop market. I wouldn’t doubt if two of Hardy, Ramirez, and Cabrera resigned with their respective clubs; plus they likely will have the Yankees to compete with in FA as they look to replace Jeter.
I think that is exactly what is going to happen, and the Yankees are going to snap up the odd man out, while the Mets will be left holding the bag. That said, at that point they will be the only trade partner teams looking to move people out of options at that point. I wouldn’t have a problem with a Drew deal of those parameters, but I’m guessing Boras would, so the trade market would be option B.
This is the point I have been saying all offseason. The SS market is a sellers market. In 2015, it will be so saturated that it will be a buyers market. There are a bunch of starting SS hitting the open market in 2013. Jeter’s retirement effects things but it’s still a better market than 2014. If they can get a good deal for a young controllable SS then fine, but in no way are the Mets desperate. Tejada is still only 24. There are highly sought after prospects in AA that are older than him. Just because he had a bad year last year after he had 2 very good years does not mean he is useless. Give him one last year to prove something then if he doesn’t look to the 2015 FA class
Why does Harvey’s injury suddenly become the scapegoat for not going for it in 2014 when according to the front office that was supposed to be the year the team would return to contention even before he debuted in in July of 2012?
Harvey turned into an ace that could lead a rotation into a deep playoff run, a rotation that doesn’t have another one of those anywhere (and no, Colon doesn’t count)
Um Spangenberg hit .289 in Double-A with 19 stolen bases. Not sure how he struggled.
Well in AA as a 22 yr old, he had a 5.3% BB rate, struck out 19% of the time, he hit for no power and had a wRC+ of 98. Considering the fact that most guys in AA are non-prospects, hitting below league average could accurately be called struggling.
Well looking at his previous years in the minors, he didnt hit many homeruns at any level, so you cannot say he struggled in power, since that really isn’t his game. I didn’t look at his other stats so yeah I can see how he struggled.
Sure I can. If a guy has no power, K’s more than average, and doesn’t walk, he has very little room for error and little likelihood of being a useful offensive player.
Austin Jackson strikes out more than average, walks very little, but has speed(like Spangenberg). Is he a useful offensive player?
Yep, those guys are exactly the same. Besides walking more and having more power, at the same age Jackson had spent an entire year at AAA already.
There is a reason that Spangenberger isn’t considered a top 10 Padre prospect by anyone.
Really? Most guys in AA are non-prospects? I’m not sure you can find a level where that is less true
Yes, really. Teams have at least 25 man rosters, often bigger, and you’ll be hard pressed to find a single AA team with 10 actual prospects on it.
10 prospects? You realize MLB team, between rookie ball, low A, high A, AA, and AAA has 5-6 major league teams. That would mean, for each team to have 10 prospects on it (and I’m using that as a minimum because that’s how you phrased it) they would have to have 50-60 actual prospects….you realize how ridiculous that is, right?
You read that the exact opposite of how he meant it. He didn’t say every team at every level has at least 10 prospects on it. He said it would be hard to find a AA team with as many as 10 prospects. Ergo, if AA rosters have 25 guys or more and no such roster has more than 10 prospects, it is literally true that most guys aren’t prospects.
Regardless, you aren’t going to find 10 prospects on a team at any level
He was trying to be exceptionally generous to you. Kind of weird that you’re arguing against him saying most AA players aren’t prospects, then arguing that his hypothetical number illustrating this is too high.
Yes, I do…you are making my argument for me. I said that MOST AA players are non-prospects, with which you disagreed. Most means more than 1/2, you know, most. If most AA players are actual prospects (as opposed to organizational players), then every single AA team must have a lot of actual prospects on them, with an average of at least 13/team. Most AA teams have a few actual prospects on them, just as most MLB teams are lucky to have more than 25 actual prospects at any one time among their 6-8 MiLB teams.
Which means, of course, that MOST AA players are non-prospects and that if you are a below average hitter in AA as a 22 yr old, that isn’t a great indicator of future success.
Well that argument could be made of every level then. There isn’t a single level where 10 out of 25 guys are legitimate prospects….unless you are talking about rookie ball where half the guys are teenagers and will be out of professional ball within 2 years anyways
Uh, yeah, that is why being below average in the minors means you aren’t a mlb player. Being average in the minors means you’re not a mlb player. Even being above average doesn’t mean you can make it in the mlb. You need to be significantly above average in the minors. When you start saying a guy is comparable to the average minor league player, you’re really saying that guy isn’t a prospect at all.
Robinson Cano put up an OPS of .695 in A+ and AA in 2003. He turned out ok. There are a thousand factors that go into evaluating a player…. his age, his tools, etc. Players develop at different paces, and put it together at different ages. Today AA is the new AAA, it’s the last stop for many prospects playing against younger players. AAA is littered with organization type players who are older.
I’d reply but rich pretty much hit the nail on the head and I’m going to avoid the redundancy
AA is the level most likely to have top prospects and is considered the biggest jump for a prospect except for the majors. I wouldn’t say Spangenberg was impressive at AA, the term struggled seems a bit strong.
He had a sub-700 OPS as a 22 y/o in AA. He still had a serviceable BA and OBP, so I don’t think anyone’s giving up on him. But he looks a long way from the guy who got drafted ahead of Baez and immediately put up a 1000+ OPS in Eugene.
He struggled compared to his perceived talent level.
He wasn’t selected before Baez he was selected after him. The Cubs selected Baez with the pick before the Padres selected Spangenberg.
Baez is clearly significantly better than Spangenberg but saying Spangenberg struggled last year in double A is not even remotely accurate
Struck out 112 times and had 6HR. I think he had hard time
The 6 HR’s is meaningless he’s not a power hitter and was never projected to be. Overall in 2013 his numbers were .292 avg 68R 6HR 51 RBi 36 SB with a .346 on base In single A he hit .296 33R 4HR 31 RBI .364 on base with 17 SB. After being promoted to double A he hit.289 35R 2HR 20 RBI with a .331 on base with 19 SB. That is not struggling. It is a pretty solid year.
The fact that he struck out over 100 times in the minors is a big concern. What’s worst is that he isn’t even a power hitter. Correct me if I’m wrong, but most of your minor league parks are hitter friendly, This is a huge concern. Well I’m just glad he’s on your team not mine.
He’s not on my team for one. I agree the 100+ is a bit of a concern but considering the solid avg and on base it’s not as big a concern as it would be otherwise. Sure some minor league parks are hitter friendly but that doesn’t mean every minor leaguer should hit double digit HR’s nor should they try. He has a decent shot of making the Padres opening day roster. I will give you he will never be a star but more of fringe starter or utility man. All I was saying from the beginning was he had a solid year in 2013 and did not struggle last season. The kid is a good athlete and is raw and like most guys that lean on pure athletic ability he has a lot to learn and his baseball skills may or may not ever catch up to his athletic tools.
The Mets really have botched their whole situation with Tejada. They are virtually handing him the job and chastising him at the same time. Not only is it unprofessional on the Mets part by their treatment of Ruben, but also if they want to trade him they are making it harder to find a taker. What team would want a player that management has gone out of their way to criticize.
who would trade for him? I agree they haven’t handled it great but to act like anyone would trade anything for him besides for a low grade prospect is laughable
So why do you think anyone would trade anything but a low grade prospect for him? The Mets need a long-term SS as bad as anyone and apparently havs zero faith in Tejada. Why would another team?