WEDNESDAY: The Phillies have requested multiple top prospects from the Dodgers, Red Sox and Yankees, reports Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, but officials who have expressed interest get the impression that Philadelphia isn’t serious about trading its ace.
MONDAY, 3:50pm: In today’s Rumblings & Grumblings column, ESPN’s Jayson Stark touched on Hamels’ availability (highlights from the rest of the piece can be seen here, though it’s worth reading in its entirety).
Officials from other teams tell Stark that the Phillies are asking for each team’s top three or four prospects in any Hamels deal, but they’re only willing to eat about $10MM of the remaining $90MM+ on Hamels’ contract. Stark quotes one unnamed executive, who told him, “Ruben wants his doors blown off in order to trade him. And you don’t get your doors blown off if this kind of money is attached. It doesn’t work that way.”
Meanwhile, Morosi hears that the Dodgers and Cardinals are the two most likely clubs to acquire Hamels (Twitter link).
3:03pm: Though we’ve been hearing for weeks that the Phillies won’t move ace Cole Hamels, Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports hears that the team has now made the lefty available, and the Dodgers are interested (Twitter link). However, the asking price on Hamels is still said to be very high, per Morosi.
Recently, it was reported that Hamels could block trades to 20 teams. The nine teams to which Hamels cannot block a trade are the Dodgers, Angels, Cardinals, Nationals, Braves, Yankees, Red Sox, Rangers and Padres, so he wouldn’t have any say should the Dodgers put together a strong enough offer.
Hamels, 30, is enjoying yet another strong season atop Philadelphia’s rotation, having pitched to a 2.72 ERA with 9.2 K/9, 2.9 BB/9 and a 47.5 percent ground-ball rate in 122 1/3 innings. He’s earning $22.5MM in 2014 and is guaranteed $90MM from 2015-18, with a $20MM club option for the 2019 season that can vest at $24MM with 400 innings from 2017-18 or 200 innings in 2018. He has about $7.87MM remaining on this year’s salary, meaning that he’s guaranteed another $97.87MM and could earn as much as $121.87MM before hitting free agency.
The Dodgers appear to be looking to make a big splash on the pitching front, as they’ve been oft-linked to David Price and have recently been heavily connected to Red Sox ace Jon Lester. Los Angeles has reportedly been loath to part with both Corey Seager and Joc Pederson in trades, but it’s worth wondering if they’d part with both hitters in order to acquire someone with so much team control remaining. Left-hander Julio Urias has seen his stock skyrocket in 2014 as well, while other pitching prospects such as Zach Lee, Chris Anderson and Tom Windle have delivered relatively disappointing results this year.
The Dodgers’ interest in Hamels isn’t entirely surprising, as the team could lose Zack Greinke to an opt-out clause following the 2015 season. Hamels would give them a dominant arm to pair with Clayton Kershaw in the event that Greinke signs elsewhere.
The Reds should trade Cueto for Pederson/Seager/J Urias.
They don’t even want to give up one of them u think they will give up 3 lol
He is still cheap and is controlled for a year and a half. I agree that all three is too much but taking into account his age, performance and contract situation the Reds should be asking for two of the three.
doesn’t make sense for L.A
Maybe the Dodgers will just give Pederson to the Reds for free. Great idea!
The Dodgers would rather move Ethier or Kemp for very little in terms of products in return and even send cash to pay their salary and open a spot for Pederson, rather than trade him.
Nobody wants Either after this season.
Nobody wants either of them. That’s the problem. Still, can’t hurt to hold to them and hope that one or the other rebuilds a little trade value early next season.
well a minority of red sox fans will somehow make an argument that this development actually increases the value they can demand for lester
What are you talking about? As if the Phillies will want anything less than what the Sox are demanding for Lester…likely even more due to the fact that he’s signed beyond 2014.
Hamels or not, there is gonna be a markt for Lester. Not to mention the fact that the Phillies ace is unlikely to be moved at this point if you ask me. Screams like an off-season deal to me. Phillies might force someone to take Howard as well.
Cole is the most valuable piece the Phillies have over the next four years. They can’t afford to use him as a means to dump Howard’s contract. If they do that, they get nothing of value in return for Hamels.
How about Hamels, Howard, Lee, and Papelbon to the Yankees for Almonte, Banuelos, Beltran, Judge, Robertson, Sanchez, Severino, and Whitley?
If the Yankees take all those contracts and give up that price in prospects, I hope you wouldn’t consider that a win for the Yankees.
I would consider it a good deal for both teams. Yankees are going to have a tough decision to make with Robertson this offseason anyway, so swapping him for Papelbon gives Betances more time to mature, while clearly creating a path for him to become the closer.
Beltran has become a DH anyway, so the difference in dollars between him and Howard is worth giving the Yankees another 1B option, especially if it helps them get Hamels and Lee. Are Judge, Sanchez, and Severino enough on their own to get Hamels? Does Almonte, Banuelos, and Whitley get the Yankees Lee? I doubt it. If I am wrong, I am willing to pay less, but I think that this deal makes sense for both the Yankees and the Phillies.
1) No trade clauses in this proposal: Beltran (full), Howard (21 teams so basic math will tell you it’s highly likely the Yankees are on there), Lee (confirmed, Yankees are on his list), Papelbon (can block trade to 17 teams). I could stop there. There’s no way they’d get all 4 of them to waive their no-trade clauses.
2) Howard’s due $25 million in ’15 AND ’16 and has a $23 million team option or a $10 million buyout for 2017. And here’s his numbers for this season: .224/.306/.380. I get the thinking is if the Yankees take that bad contract, they supposedly wouldn’t have to give up as much in terms of prospects but if you’re dealing Judge, Severino and Sanchez as it is, why take on Howard as well?
3) If Beltran truly is, as you say, a DH now, what are the Phillies going to do with him?
4) Lee is due $25 million in each of the next 2 seasons and then has a $27.5 million club option for 2017 or a $12.5 million buyout. On top of that, his two starts this past week were pretty bad. If I”m the Phillies, I might wait until after July 31st and hope some team claims him off waivers and then pull the old “his ENTIRE contract is your problem now!” trick.
That would be a ridiculously bad deal for the Yankees. Bad contracts and bad players. Howard is done. Lee is almost done. There probably isn’t a more “me first” player in the league than Papelbon. Hamels is a star, but acquiring him isn’t worth taking those other players and their contracts.
And a 72hr negotiating window with Robertson. If the Phillies cannot lock him up long-term, they can send him back to the Yankees and take Shawn Kelley instead. Deal?
Hamels and Lester are almost the same exact pitcher for the career in terms of comparability and have almost identical resumes in terms of post season success. That said, I don’t think they really affect each other in this case considering Hamels is under control for 4-5 years where as Lester is a true rental and wouldn’t give a team a draft pick if he walks which is going to limit his value.
Hamels and Lester are almost the same exact pitcher for the career in terms of comparability and have almost identical resumes in terms of post season success. That said, I don’t think they really affect each other in this case considering Hamels is under control for 4-5 years where as Lester is a true rental and wouldn’t give a team a draft pick if he walks which is going to limit his value.
Agreed. However, keep in mind, Lester pitches in the usually offensive powerhouse AL East. Hamels pitches more games against some much weaker offenses. I haven’t looked at the splits and maybe I’m completely off-base, but I always am very wary about an AL team about bringing in NL pitchers. I think Hamels is an exception because of his stuff, but an awful lot of NL pitchers that come to the AL run back to the NL shortly thereafter.
Edit: This is speaking to their career, not 2014.
What hurts the red Sox in a Lester deal is that they are too forawrd with trading him. Phils are more likley to get more prospects back because there is at least the perception they dont want to trade him. Wheter that is true or not, teams know it will be harder to negotiate with them, and know they will have to give up a lot.
i am talking about a minority of sox fans. no one argued that there is no market for Lester. The phillies being unlikely to move hamels is a fact you are asserting, nobody else. i’m trying to find a point in what you are saying but it just kind of sounds like a red sox fan arguing that somehow if the phillies make Hamels available that that in no way affects how much the sox can ask for lester.
i am talking about a minority of sox fans. no one argued that there is no market for Lester. The phillies being unlikely to move hamels is a fact you are asserting, nobody else. i’m trying to find a point in what you are saying but it just kind of sounds like a red sox fan arguing that somehow if the phillies make Hamels available that that in no way affects how much the sox can ask for lester.
Phillies fans: The only reason to deal Hamels is if you can rebuild your farm system in doing so
Dodgers fans: We’ll pay his salary for you, but we’re not giving up any prospects along with it.
Phillies fans: The Phillies don’t need to get rid of salary per se, they need to send money out with big contracts to pile up the prospects they don’t currently have.
Annnnnd….go
That pretty accurately sums up almost every conversation from the Phillies side. Don’t need teams to take on salary (we’re even willing to take some on) – but desperately need prospects (we’ve got a decent, not great, top 5 – but it drops off quickly after that).
Sums it up well, with the lack of production they’ve gotten in CF, I highly doubt the Dodgers will look to trade pederson. Trading one good prospect for Lester and signing him to an extension makes more sense then trading for Hamels and giving up a package like Pederson/Seager/Lee
The Phillies could include someone like Ben Revere or maybe Marlon Byrd and shift Puig or Kemp back into center field.
I’ve honestly thought about having Revere added in a package with Hamels or Lee, especially if moved to Seattle.
The Phillies could include someone like Ben Revere or maybe Marlon Byrd and shift Puig or Kemp back into center field.
What exactly did the Phillies expect out of Revere when they traded for him in the offseason? Seems like all his stats are about the same as always. He will hit for average and steal bases and not much else…
I think they also expected him to increase his OBP as his years went on and become a really good lead off hitter, but it’s been the opposite. They also failed to realize how much of a defensive liability he is due to his noodle arm.
Even in the minors his OBP was weak.
Yeah, who knows what the Phillies were thinking. Just one of the many bad moves. May is also killing it this year in AAA.
Its just time for Ruben to go.
I always thought of him as a decent fielder, but after looking it up he really isn’t that good. It looks like its just not his arm either. His range stats are poor also which surprises me with his speed. He must take some really bad angles or has terrible jumps. Either way, his D looks better suited to LF, but he doesn’t have the bat to play there. He really looks like he should be a 4th OF/pinch runner at this point.
He was absolutely stellar in RF in Minnesota. He’s built like a CF, but he doesn’t have the arm, and apparently he’s just not able to play it well enough.
Interestingly, his arm didn’t hurt him nearly as much in RF as it has in CF, which you’d think would be the opposite… But it’s possible that Target Field’s RF is so deep that even average arms would have difficulty with some of those throws, so the ground he could cover was more valuable/important.
If they are making Hamels available because they are rebuilding wouldn’t also make the 35 year old Utley also available?
If Utley is in as far as the destination goes, I think he would have always been available.
Utley has 10-5 rights. Phillies can make him available all they want. Uts has the final say.
If the Phils trade Hamels , Utley will waive his no trade clause as the Phils would most likely be in full rebuild mode.
That’s your opinion – but do you have any evidence to back that up?
Yeah I kind of do. From Utley himself who said he doent plan on going anywhere but if management tells me they dont want me here I will change my mind. If Phils management trade Hamels they are basically saying its time to start over and move on.
He actually said if they “tell him they no longer want him in Philly, he may change his mind.” And then followed that up with “I really like playing in Philly”.
I don’t think trading a starter (even one as good as Hamels) is them telling him he is no longer wanted. I think he’d literally have to be run out of town, in order to want to leave (and I don’t see Philly fans doing that to Utley).
Utley’s not dumb – a Hamels trade wouldn’t signal anything he doesn’t already know.
It’s not like they’re in contention right now. He should waive them regardless.
No he shouldn’t. He’s a 10-5 player and he’s earned the right to decide what he wants to do. If he wants to retire in Philadelphia he can. He’s won a ring already and there’s no guarantee he wins another one if he leaves.
If the Dodgers get Hamels that could push the Giants to then add Utley.
Chase has 10-5 rights and is adamant about staying Philly. Only place I think he’d accept a deal to is San Fransisco.
Plus they want him there to sell tickets and mentor the younger guys as they come up (for whatever that’s worth). I think with Hamels, they’re trying to cash in on the best season of his career.
He is available. Utley is the one saying he doesn’t wish to go anywhere. I’m sure RAJ has been pushing them hard, but in a trade involving Chase or Jimmy, those two have the final say.
Jimmy’s been available since 2012. They almost had a deal worked out with the Dodgers for a Dee Gordon/Jimmy Rollins type of swap but something fell through.
I am sure the Yanks would be interested in Utley because he would a an upgrade over Brian Roberts but that contract is terrible.
?????
He’s got 1 more appropriately priced year then a bunch of years with vesting options where if he gets hurt or is no longer effective, they go away.
?????
He’s got 1 more appropriately priced year then a bunch of years with vesting options where if he gets hurt or is no longer effective, they go away.
He’s paid like the best second baseman in the National League (which he arguably is). His contract is beyond team friendly.
Utley is on a great contract
Hamels has been available since the off season to any team willing to blow the Phillies away. It’s their level of sincerity though that would be more newsworthy, meaning whether the asking price has been lowered or not. Maybe they see an opportunity to strike while they have the best pitcher on the market with the most control.
I think it would still take Urias, Seager, and Pederson in some type of package plus two other lottery type guys.
Any 2 of those 3 would be good but I highly doubt the phillies could get those 3 plus 2 additional pieces.
That’s be ridiculous and I may apologize slightly to Amaro. Slightly.
Plus $120M in salary relief? That would be ridiculous.
Which is why they won’t move him. They could get a package equivalent to Pederson + a few B’s and C’s in 2 years when they have a better idea of who they need to pair with Crawford, Franco, Nola, Quinn, and whomever.
And just to clarify, I meant two of the three. Personally, I’m not very high on Pederson as a center piece in a deal for a talent like Cole Hamels, I’d prefer Seager.
Plus $120M in salary relief? That would be ridiculous.
In that case then, Hamels will remain a Phillie.
Hamels and Kershaw would be absolutely sick. Hamels era in the NL west would hover around 2. Hope the Phillies do the right thing and move him to a contender.
I doubt it would be close to 2.00
Maybe, at best, 2.50.
Dont underestimate the difference in pitching in the bandbox of Philly and the humidity drenched parks of the east coast to playing in Dodger Stadium and the NL West.
I cant tell you how many (Hamels)flyball HR’ Ive seen land in the flower boxes of CBP that would be routine outs at west and in Dodger Stadium
Dylan Bundy, Edwardo Rodriguez, Tim Berry, Michael Ohlman and Matt Hobgood for Hammel and 45mil.
Do it!
Not enough. Probably wouldn’t have any wheels without Bundy and Harvey.
I like this deal a whole lot better than the Jon Lester deal, who has said he doesn’t want to be anywhere but Boston and will not extend his contract so essentially they would give up Kemp which is a horrible idea. To get a pitcher who doesn’t want to be there for what 2 month’s? Bad deal! Lester said he will do everything in his power to get back to Boston. So why would we want someone who doesn’t want to be there?
because a few red sox fans really want la to give then 3 top 20 prospects for half a season of lester because it is the absolute best scenario for them.
It makes no sense what so ever! Kemp who is finally getting around to being himself. He may have ego problems, this is true, but still one hell of a outfielder and has a great bat. I can’t see trading him. And there is no way on the face of this earth they’re trading Pedersen or seager or urias. I say if they must van slyke or Crawford. Which I think are great players as well.
Sorry Ashley, but Crawford and Van Slyke are far from “great” players. The Dodgers would certainly move Crawford for a bag of balls should some team actually want him.
because a few red sox fans really want la to give then 3 top 20 prospects for half a season of lester because it is the absolute best scenario for them.
No lester said he would be open to going back to Boston. He didn’t say he’ll do anything in his power. Especially if Boston ends up 30-40 million less than what other teams offer him
Pederson, Arruebarrena, Lee, and Anderson for Hamels
That is probably the first sensible offer I have seen. People who think that Pederson, Urias and Seager are going to be included are delusional and if Ned did that, he should be fired on the spot.
People that think the Dodgers will keep Pederson, Urias and Seager are equally delusional. At least two would be required in a trade for Hamels.
Doubtful. Most teams cannot even consider taking on a $120M contract. The number of teams that can knock on that door has to limit the demands made by the seller. The Dodgers are not going to pay Hamels $23M a year AND give away the farm.
Then they will live without Hamels, which I must say is the most logical choice. The Dodgers do not need Hamels but the Phillies don’t need to trade him either. Hamels certainly doesn’t become a Dodger unless they give away the farm.
I don’t see either team as being very motivated, so on that part we probably agree. But I do think it’s kind of funny that every possible trade the Dodgers are linked to, according to posters here, involves them giving away the farm and a bunch of money. It is never just one or the other, always both.
It’s not a bad offer, but it’s going to take 2/3 of Urias/Seager/Pederson and a guy like lee for the Phillies to listen, which is why I don’t think Hamels gets moved.
Pederson, Guerrero, and C Anderson is the top 1-2-3 prospects Philly is looking for (those three better than almost any other teams top 3, but a few clubs, and only the Cubs have better and ability to take on the payroll).
Pederson yes, Anderson is struggling at high A, and Guerrero is 27 and wouldn’t serve much of a purpose to the Phillies.
Pederson, Guerrero, and C Anderson is the top 1-2-3 prospects Philly is looking for (those three better than almost any other teams top 3, but a few clubs, and only the Cubs have better and ability to take on the payroll).
This is a great trade idea, but would put Guerrero in for Arruebarrena and ask for Revere (and move Ethier and/or CC if possible with 50M), need a pure CF if we deal Joc.
Also opens up Grienke for trade this winter before opt out if we want to go that way.
Doubt greinke opts out and even less chance LA deals him. I think its more likely they sign another deal with him before he can opt out. Greinke said he’ll be watching what contracts lester and scherzer get this offseason, which makes me think greinke just wants to make sure he’s getting market value for his production, something I’m sure the dodgers would be willing to do. A fresh 5 yr/115-125 deal would probably get to stay
Unless he gets injured or becomes Barry Zito, he’s going to opt out. It’ll be interesting to see how the Dodgers react to it.
agree, he has shown he wants to maximize his earnings. I think he opts out and not sure LAD would be willing to go 6 years (what I think he gets on the open market.
Hamels would allow LAD to trade him in the offs eason and recoup some of what they gave for Hamels.
Honestly the best offer I’ve seen in rumors for a while. Could definitely happen, especially since LA doesnt need Philly to eat money
why is Tom Windle getting so much attention we just drafted him last year and the guy was compared to Ted Lilly
what i mean by attention is that i see him in so many trade proposals
Not having a great season, not projected to be more than a back of rotation starter.
I know it’s been done on here plenty of times, but I really like how when you guys have articles like this, you omit wins and losses to show how good a pitcher actually has been.
You throw wins and losses in this article and people would be clamoring about how he hasn’t been that good.
wins and losses are a team stat… if he throws 8 innings of 1 run ball and his miserable offense doesn’t score, he gets a loss… likewise he could throw 5 terrible innings, allowing 9 runs and 15 hits and if his offense scores 10 (doubtful in Philly) he gets a win…. Wins and losses are not useful in examining a pitcher’s effectiveness
Thank you. The fact that wins and losses are still thought to be an important indicator of how good a pitcher is really annoys me.
FWIW Hamels has easily lost about 50 career wins pitching in Philly due to lack of run support and faulty bullpens over the years. Its amazing how much buzzards luck he has in Philly.
Hamels for Joc. Jose Dominguez and Cody Bellinger. Adding Bellinger as a 1B would be a great addition to the Phillies.
How about Hamels for Kemp, pitching prospects Reed, Lee, and either first baseman Chris Jacobs, O’Koyea Dickson or Clay Bellinger? Plus lots of cash?
darnell sweeney could be a good fit, utley wont be around much longer.
yeah i guess Kemp could be in talks. once he received that mega deal he was never the same.
Matt Kemp for Cole Hamels? Dodgers pay most of the load of course. I am more interested in Dodgers keeping their top three prospects then shipping them away. Huge mistake if the Dodgers did that.
Do you realize Kemp has negative value right now?
says people not watching kemp play, best bat for dodgers since the start of June. Id rather keep him, we are in First. our rotation kersh, greinke, ryu is still the best playoff rotation out there.
lemme guess you think he is still injured and playing terrible D in Center? he is healthy, in RF, and hitting the ball all over the field…may not have any power but not many people on the west coast this time of year do. watch the guy play before you say how terrible he is.
If Kemp plays decent RF (and he has in a short sample) he has value…LAD pays his salary down to 15M a year (about 32M in cash) and he has good value, if he shows power returning and both of the above, he has great value.
LAD better off shopping him this winter…hopefully after a monster post season from him 🙂
Agree with him being a decent bat since June, but I think it will take a 5-6 HR month to really get other teams aggressive to get him.
You guys said that last year before getting shown up by the Cards.
He’s been good the past two weeks. He’s been pretty awful since 2012 though.
Lol, you do realize the Dodgers are actually relying on Kemp right now, right? He plays every day and was instrumental in LA’s sweep of SF.
The problem with fans of other teams is that they don’t look at things from the other side. If the Dodgers trade Kemp, they only really have Puig as a legit right-handed bat in the OF. And Crawford & Ethier are bad against left-handed pitching. Dodgers have one of the most productive outfields, offensively, in baseball. Why would they do anything to change that?
Exactly, thank you!! kempy was 9 for 22 last week with 5 walks…he is just sooo terrible.
Yeah, fans of these other teams just think the Dodgers are going to dump players off of a 1st place team. Dodgers MIGHT trade Kemp, but they would likely want full value for him.
Dodgers are not looking to dump Kemp. They have the money to pay him and he’s been playing better of late.
sitting in first place, and people are so eager (a lot of Dodger fans) to see Pederson come up. I like the Lineup they had against SF…it obviously worked. Pederson will not do what Puig did last year. Make a trade in the offseason, see what he has in September. There is no reason to disrupt a first place team for unproven rook who cant hit lefties…to go along with 2 other OF who cant hit lefties.
Full value for Matt Kemp with his contract is nothing.
Okay, then I guess the Dodgers will just have to keep him. Fine by me.
-1.0 WAR this season at the beginning of a monster contract. That’s pretty bad.
He’s up to -0.1 per fangraphs, so now he’s almost exactly at replacement level! Woohoo!
The point of trading someone like Cole Hamels right now isn’t to pick up another player with an even bigger contract.
The Phillies would be looking to get young, cost-controlled talent, guys who they can plug into their lineup or rotation for numerous years at bargain prices. Matt Kemp gets 21.5M a year the rest of the way out, and even playing better is still a sub-.800 OPS guy right now. If you’re paying 21.5M a year to someone, you want a little better than a .775 OPS, especially if they’re now putting him in a corner outfield position.
Ruben is just raising the value of Jon Lester here.
Ruben is just raising the value of Jon Lester here.
90 million commitment for a 30 year old pitcher. No thanks…
Hamels is an ace, just turned 30, is under control for 4 more years and is relatively inexpensive when compared to the current free agent market. Teams can either give up top prospects for Hamels or sign a pitcher like Scherzer to a longer contract more expensive contract. People who think the Phillies will give Hamels away for salary relife are nuts.
Hamels at 4/90-5/110 is much better than Scherzer at 7/190+
Then the Phillies should just build around him. Personally, I think these rumors about Hamels are false. I doubt they are shopping him.
Build around Hamels with what, more aging and unproductive free agents?
He’s the Phil’s ace. Blow up the rest of the team. Trade Cliff Lee. Trade Utiley. Try and trade Howard. Collect as many prospects as you can to rebuild the farm system.
Meanwhile, like the Dodgers, Phils have money to spend. Go out and try to build a rotation around Hamels. Focus on pitching and defense, while developing position player prospects, like SS J.P. Crawford.
Its not going to be easy, but they need to get younger and rebuild mainly from within, with some key free agent acquisitions mixed in.
The Phillies have already tried that. Utley has 10-5 rights and no desire to move, no one is going trade for Howard no matter how hard PHI tries, Lee is injured and untadable at the moment… that leaves Hamels as their chance to rebuild the farm.
The phillies need to wake up and start coming to terms with their situation. They have an old roster that is injury prone and no longer producing the same as 3-4 years ago. They need to start trading veterans while they still have value. Giving out these unbelievably bad contracts like Papelbon’s with a no trade clause is making it worse.
Probably hamels has more value than any other philly
Exactly how are they not “in terms with their situation”? The bad contracts you pointed out make it very difficult to move them. The 4 guys who do carry value, one would and should take a ton to consider moving (Hamels), 2 have 10/5 rights (Rollins, Utley) and the other is the best RH bat on the market so there’s no rush (Byrd). It’s not like they haven’t made up their mind on wanting to move Howard or Papelbon.
Yankees offer Severino, Sanchez, Clarkin and take on Hamels’ entire contract. The Phillies need a young catcher to come in and take over services and Sanchez doesn’t really have an opportunity with the Yankees because of McCann. Severino has looked like a stud this year and Clarkin is a hard throwing lefty with 2/3 potential. Honestly they could probably even throw in Baneulos as well since his stock has fallen so low with the Yankees and could just use a change of scenery at this point and could possibly rebound. But a top 5 prospect catcher, two great arms and a project for Hamels’ money to free up while also rebuilding the farm system would be great for the Phillies. As for the Yankees they would be ecstatic if one of Severino or Clarkin became anything close to Hamels and would love to contend in the post season for Jeter’s last season, not to mention Hamels and Tanaka would be crazy good for at least the next couple years. I feel like the Phillies would have to at least consider this trade… Thoughts?
Not enough
It’s not enough to get Hamels, but at the same time it’s also a big loss to NY’s system. Hamels alone wouldn’t be enough to get them over the top anyway, so they should just stand pat.
Hey you never know! In a wide open AL East where seemingly everyone is still in contention acquiring an Ace at this point in the season could be key. And hopefully if Tanaka comes back early September it would be like acquiring another Ace, making a strong 1-2 punch in a playoff series. IF the Yankees truly want somebody to complement Tanaka and keep their playoff hopes alive, they should be willing to give up there top prospects, especially the pitchers whom they hope one day would even be as good Hamels, without the certainty.
Not enough. It would probably take something like Severino, Sanchez, Clarkin, Judge and Betances.
That’s a crazy haul!! But I see what you mean, the Phillies aren’t really in a position of pressure to deal Hamels and would only do so if they were completely blown away which that deal does. Thanks for the comment.
I want Hamels so badly, I would take Howard, Lee, and Papelbon in the deal as well. My proposed package is along the same lines as yours but much larger. Let me know what you think about it.
I just feel likes thats too many huge contracts going the Yankees way. I mean yeah the payroll is inflated and were over the luxury tax and what not. But thats like destroying our salary cap for the next 3-4 years unless we can shed some other contracts which isn’t so likely. The more logical route would be to deal a prospect in a position of strength (catcher) and young starters that have bright futures, even giving up Judge if need be (we can find another replacement, possibly Castillo?) as Gardner and Ellsbury will hold down left and right for the near future but were looking to win now as Cashman’s aggressiveness has shown.
I don’t disagree, but I don’t get the sense that our four best prospects (Judge, Sanchez, Severino, ?) match up with other teams that would be interested in Hamels. If I could get Hamels and just give up prospects, I would do it in a nanosecond, but I think that the Yankees have to do what the Dodgers did when they were willing to take Beckett and Crawford to get Gonzalez. If I have to swap Beltran and Robertson for Howard and Papelbon and throw in a boatload of prospects to get Hamels and Leee, so be it. I also want to sign Jon Lester this offseason. What is the point of having a limitless supply of money if you aren’t going to spend it?
It would probably take Severino,Bentances,and Sanchez just to land Hamels alone.
Honestly if I’m Cashman I’m holding out on Betances to the last proposal. But if thats what it takes to get a bonafide ace in this market to be a staple in the rotation for the next 3-4 years I think I would have to pull the trigger. Dealing prospects is always a touchy matter, but what you have to realize is that there really a shot in the dark, whereas with Hamels you have a certainty that can carry your team in the present and the future.
It would take more than that to get Hamels. Significantly more.
i know that,I was trying to imply that,but I did a poor job of that.
I’m sure any conversation with the yanks would have to include Aaron Judge… and the Phils don’t need salary relief, they need prospects
Of course! I wasn’t suggesting that Hamels salary is a burden. He is making whats he’s worth as a starter right now and hasn’t shown any signs of regression yet. Nonetheless I feel like that deal is fair to fit the needs of the Phillies appropriately but if they wanted Judge as main piece to get some depth in their outfield they could do something like Judge Severino Sanchez Warren (setup man/future closer if they can deal Papelbon?) and see where those talks take them.
my bad, so many posters on here seem to think the Phils would be willing to move Hamels in a salary dump, didn’t mean to lump you in with them…
Check out my proposal and let me know what you think about it.
I saw it Bertin, was just too much at the time to fully wrap my head around it… I think I agree that there are just way too many moving parts and hurdles to get past for a deal like that to work.. not saying it’s a bad proposal, just think it would take weeks to get all the pieces squared away and we only have days..
Dodgers should get hamels he’s under team control for 4 years they should give up lee seager and other prospects or joc and dodgers sign the cuban outfielder and trade kemp to the mariners get other prospects from them .
there you go, leave them with one right handed batter in the OF, sign an unproven cuban outfielder with a terrible arm. I mena theyre only in first place why not just blow up the whole team and get rid of the top 3 prospects, dont know if you havent noticed dodgers rotation is pretty good.
People said puig wasn’t that good hes proved everyone wrong they got that cuban swag . Besides were not blowing the farm system we have urias n keep one of perderson or seager . Plus get one top prospect from the mariners and other lower level prospects
people said puig was overpayed, didnt mean he wasnt talented. cant give up seager though, I think he moves to 3rd and starts in 2016
Dodgers are starting to play well again they need a move like this to get them to the next level our #5 guy isn’t doing anything and beckett had a ruff outing last time out
People said puig wasn’t that good hes proved everyone wrong they got that cuban swag . Besides were not blowing the farm system we have urias n keep one of perderson or seager . Plus get one top prospect from the mariners and other lower level prospects
I think the point is if we could package Pederson and others (not seager and urias) for hammels and flip kemp for prospect, we can leave puig in center and van slyke has been a solid OF. Platoon Ethier and Crawford in Left. I also read somewhere that they’ve been having guerrero play LF in AAA, which would add another RH bat to the OF and keep gordon at 2B. An OF of Guerrero/Puig/Van Slyke is pretty good when you also factor in having AGON and Gordon in our line-up and keeping seager in the system.
I think Kemp has more value than a lot of people are giving him credit for, but i also think his defense will fall off sooner rather than later, so they could keep Kemp for this yr and move him in the offseason, or still build a package around him for lester
That would be super expensive. Kemp may not net a lot, or little at all from Seattle.
Hamels would take Seager+Pederson. Pederson looks like he be the second coming of puig
How about Hamels, Howard, Lee, and Papelbon to the Yankees for Almonte, Banuelos, Beltran, Judge, Robertson (with a 72hr negotiating window – if the Phillies cannot lock him up long-term, they can send him back to the Yankees and take Shawn Lelley instead), Sanchez, Severino, and Whitley?
Interesting idea but there are a few too many pieces in there for it ever to work. Just for starters Lee, Paelbon, Howard and Beltran all have no-trade clauses.
I don’t think that Papelbon would reject a trade to the Yankees. Lee will most likely OK a trade if his option year is guaranteed. Howard probably wouldn’t mind playing in NY. Beltran is a wild-card. Not sure what the Yankees could do to get him to accept a trade to the Phillies.
Any idea what Beltran’s NTC looks like?
Full no trade clause plus an immovable contract.
Not immovable, if you are swapping him for Howard.
Ok not a productively movable contract. Howard, Hamilton and BJ Upton might be about the only players you could trade Beltran for.
Nope. Didn’t know that he had one until now.
Kelley, not Lelley.
your kidding right?
Nope.
You should be. That act would kill on stage in Philly.
As others have pointed out, Beltran has a NTC. He’s not going to accept going to a losing team, and if there was ANY chance of that, he CERTAINLY wouldn’t accept going to a losing team in the NL, seeing as he’s mostly a DH these days.
If it’s a deal with the Dodgers, it’d gotta include Seager and Pederson. Could do something like this:
Hamels, Asche and Altherr to the Dodgers for Seager, Pederson, Anderson, Schebler, Sweeney and Y. Garcia.
Honestly though, I don’t see the reason why the Dodgers would be interested in Hamels when they know it’ll take a system gutting to get him and there will be front of the rotation arms available in free agency.
talk about gutting the farm, just stand pat and win with the team they have. Roation is solid.
I agree. I don’t quite understand why the Dodgers would be interested in Hamels knowing the cost. I could see it if maybe they lose Kershaw, Greinke or Ryu to TJ surgery and know they’ll miss this pennant chase and likely next year’s as well.
Its greed. It would be way too expensive to get Hamels for them.
Pederson+Seager to start,and that is hefty.
How about a trade that makes sense for both teams?
Carlos Martinez, Stephen Piscotty, Alex Reyes, and Greg Garcia for Hamels and $10 million
Not sure that’s enough, but it’s in the ballpark. Maybe add in Grichuk or a PTBNL that would be one of the pitchers they took in the 1st round this year.
they would want oscar tavera
No. Every trade does not demand a top 5 prospect.
And if that’s Amaro’s demand, then I have no problem with Wainwright, Lynn, Wacha, Martinez rotation.
when you generally trade ace, or high end pitching they generally do.
Cubs Sama for Addison Russell top 15
R.A Dickey for Noah Syndergaard+ Travis D’arnaud
James Shields for Wil Myers.
Generally high end pitching has cost high end talent. Grant it the Russel deal was at the deadline,but the other trades were not.
all of those deals include a top 20 prospect or better overall at the trade.
Yes Hamels has a contract attached to him,but his contract is a value to the contracts pitchers are getting today.
Hamels has a $22.5m per year contract for 4 years (with an option that PROTECTS the team if he goes on the DL with an elbow or shoulder injury). On the open market Lester is going to get 5 yrs guaranteed with likely a vesting year and might be AAV in the $25m range.
Scherzer has already rejected a ridiculously generous contract.
The Phils have been said to even be willing to kick in $10m with Cole. That puts him under $20m per year which seems even better than ‘hometown discount cheap’ for a #1 pitcher
Then it looks like he’ll have to be traded to the Twins, Cubs, or Cardinals. I’d say he’ll be in Philly.
Piscotty is just outside the top 50, and Carlos Martinez was ranked as high as 27th at one point, and given what he already accomplished last off-season, I wouldn’t say his value has gone down since last year. It’s not a crazy low-ball offer.
I understand that, but the Phillies are going to want a top 20 prospect for Hamels. Even though this team is tanking this year they are in no rush to deal Hamels. Thats what I think people don’t get. Hamels is just 30,and the youngest of the core.
Plus pitching is at a premium now. The game has changed from what it was 10 years ago. The game has changed from what used to be a more “hitting based” to developing young talented controllable pitchers. As a Cards fan I think you will understand this. Miller(even though terrible year so far),Martinez,Wacha,Wainwright(not so young but you get the point) etc. I think the Phillies will demand a package starting with
Tavares+Piscotti+ Some low end prospects.(because tavares is a super prospect the Cardinals shouldn’t be required to include much more.)
As a Phillies fan I’d want him too, but he’s probably not available in any scenario that doesn’t involve Kershaw or Trout.
2015
Tanaka
Hamels
Sabathia
Nova
Mc Carthy
Thats a impressive rotation.
Not particularly given the health concerns with Sabathia and Nova, and Tanaka potentially needing TJ surgery.
yes, but even so for the long term Hamels is a potential if not ace, that can carry a team even with those health concerns. You can’t undervalue aces,and lets be honest other then a slight hot streak from Solarte a ace in Tanaka has carried the yanks.
The only thing impressive about Sabathia lately is his bloated salary.
not really. We have no idea if Tanaka needs surgery, Nova will be coming off surgery, Sabathia is fading, McCarthy is a free agent.
Position players only RAJ! Draft your SPs or Sign them in FA.
Diamondbacks… I got nothing.
No team will assume 80 Million remaining for Hamels plus give up their 3 or 4 best prospects for the Phillies to choose from. Within the 9 teams above, Phillies GM, Ruben Amaro, will be forced to choose upon the team offering to assume full remainder and the best players package offered. That would appear to be any within the list except the Padres. Yet, with Hamels being from Southern California and the Dodgers shakey upon that Time Warner TV deal, the Angels might have a good shot at him there.
Many teams would give that up for a proven front of the rotation arm with 4+ years of control. It really comes down to need and if they have prospects the Phillies want.
If Hamels is considered the missing piece of a team’s puzzle for the next 4 years then a team will trade away prospects. And Hamels contract for an ace of his caliber is not a problem at all, plus it will expire when he is 34, and not 37 or 38 like some free agents (Lester or Scherzer) who are about the hit market and will want 7 years and probably 175 million (Scherzer not Lester, more than likely). Also, if a team has the positions covered that the prospects play, then it would be a done deal for me (ex. Dodgers have 4 OF and Joc P. their top prospect – so why not use that prospect to add Hamels?). Not every GM is hesitant, some want to bring home the championship to their cities while they can!
He won’t be forced to do anything. He doesn’t have to move him at all, let alone by Thursday.
TimeWarner is on the hook for $8.5B no matter what. It’s not like the deal gets dissolved because TimeWarner can’t get the most profitable deal with the other carriers. TimeWarner will just take a hit in their bottom line, which would effectually burst the RSN bubble, leaving the Dodgers as the last big money beneficiary.
If Hamels is considered the missing piece of a team’s puzzle for the next 4 years then a team will trade away prospects. And Hamels contract for an ace of his caliber is not a problem at all, plus it will expire when he is 34, and not 37 or 38 like some free agents (Lester or Scherzer) who are about the hit market and will want 7 years and probably 175 million (Scherzer not Lester, more than likely). Also, if a team has the positions covered that the prospects play, then it would be a done deal for me (ex. Dodgers have 4 OF and Joc P. their top prospect – so why not use that prospect to add Hamels?). Not every GM is hesitant, some want to bring home the championship to their cities while they can
Because 3 of their outfielders stink. Crawford, Ethier and Kemp no longer scare anyone, but Dodgers management. Pederson next to Puig would be an outfield for future dominance.
But Dodgers probably lose Greinke soon, a team needs 2 to 3 great arms to win a championship.
The Dodgers said they want to build their team with the farm system. How are you going to do that if you clean out the farm system all the time?
I think Pederson and Urias gets it done. Plus another mid level prospect. Urias won’t be in the bugs for a couple years.
I don’t think the Dodgers are trading Urias. If the Dodgers were in a dogfight for a wild card spot or if any of their top 3 SPs were injured, then I could see them making Urias available, but they aren’t going to deal their prized arm for icing on the cake. Urias could be this generation’s Fernando, a star player who transcends baseball in the LA market.
Why would the Dodgers lose Greinke? He’ll probably opt-out after next season if the market is right and he continues pitching well, but why wouldn’t the Dodgers then re-sign him?
There’s no indication that Greinke will opt out. And the Dodgers can afford Scherzer or another top line starter in the offseason. Giving up top prospects isn’t necessary.
The problem with Scherzer is her is going to command 6-8 years and that means you get him well into his mid 30s and later. And he will be paid probably, what, close to $200 million for those years of age? Hamels is 30, you have him 4 years at 80 million, and you can trade him 2 years down the road and get some top guys back.
But Dodgers probably lose Greinke soon, a team needs 2 to 3 great arms to win a championship.
I’d move Gary Sanchez and Luis Severino in a heart beat for Cole Hamels. I’d love to hold onto Aaron Judge. I’d sooner push Rob Refsnyder, John Ryan Murphy and/or Eric Jagielo on the Phillies but if push came to shove…..maybe I couldn’t pass on that. Hamels is an ace, he’s left-handed (huge for Yankee Stadium) and he’s signed to a very reasonable contract, for his talent level.
Given the Yankees system it would probably take at least Severino, Sanchez, Judge and Clarkin just to get the Phillies to the table. I know that’s 4 of the Yankees top 5-6 prospects, but because they don’t have a Joc Pederson and Corey Seager, a Carlos Martinez and Stephen Piscotty or a Henry Owens and Blake Swihart, they’d have to include most of their top prospects.
We’re talking 5+ years of a front of the rotation arm with a very reasonable contract. It’ll take a system gutting to get him for the Yankees.
Stark says the Phillies are willing to eat $10 million of Hamels’ contract to make it happen. I would hope eating all of the contract (which is reasonable compared to what Scherzer and/or Lester might get this off-season) might save the Yankees from having to move the Judge.
I doubt it would save them from having to move Judge. Teams don’t compromise much when dealing a talent like Hamels. It’s pretty much here’s the price, take it or leave.
I’d do it, then, for Hamels. Judge + Severino + Sanchez. But then I would be sure to cross off any free agent this coming off-season who receives a qualifying offer so that the Yankees receive their first round pick. Maybe make Robertson a qualifying offer and let him walk away, make Betances the closer and take another post round 1 pick, to make up some of the difference. Unless Lester is dealt in the next few days–then his new team wouldn’t be able to make him a qualifying offer and all bets are off.
Robertson takes the QO. That would be the highest single season salary for a relief pitcher ever.
I know you are probably thinking full time reliever but there are some expensive starters that threw out of the pen like Barry Zito.
That’s great. if you were a closer hitting the open market and someone offered you 15 million for one season would you take it? Because that matches the most that has ever been paid for a single season to a relief pitcher. He would take that offer so fast your head would spin. And then he would do it again the next year if it was offered. He’s a good closer, but he isn’t the best in the league, and draft pick compensation would prevent him from getting better offers anywhere else. He’s making 5.2 this year, you think he’s turn down 15 for one year?
No he wont turn that down, the Yankees probably won’t offer him a QO but they can offer him 3 years 32 million. I can see Robertson playing elsewhere next season, it looks like the Yankees are prepared to move on without him. They should have extended him.
Ever wonder why our respective teams are only willing to overpay for players we didn’t homegrow?
Yeah I have, it puzzles me.
I have a question for you. Where is the elite prospect in there? Severino is still unproven,and Sancheze’s value has tanked this year. Aaron Judge has potential,but thats about it.
I don’t appreciate your tone but I will answer your question albeit with another question: Severino is “unproven”? Aren’t “prospect” and “unproven” redundant? Javier Baez is “unproven”. Now you can say, “Oh, he’s this great prospect and all blah, blah, blah” but Dustin Ackley was the second guy taken in his draft class overall by the Mariners and look at how he’s done in the majors. Would you count HIM as “proven” prospect to center a Hamels deal around? 6-3, 2.36 ERA, 83 H. in 103 IP., .217 BAA., 1.05WHIP.–that’s Severino’s number across low-A, high-A and AA this season. He’s dominated everywhere he’s been. You might not be impressed with him but it seems his name came up any time Brian Cashman talked to any other team prior to the trade deadline.
Your missing the point. He is not a “stud” prospect yet. He isn’t
a top pitching prospect like Giolto,Syndergaard,Bradley,Walker,Gausman,Bundy etc.
The Phillies would be looking for a arm like that in any deal for Hamels,and the Yankees just don’t have it. Yes all prospects are unproven you are correct,but Severino has to prove a bit more before we start issuing him that higher ceiling.
And the lack of intelligence, advance planning and creativity is why the Phillies’ roster / farm system is a disaster.
It is bad,but they have a few nice players in there. J.P Crawford,and Makiel Franco(has had a terrible year so far),but still has upside to be a average 3B or better.
Philadelphia isn’t serious about trading…. that about sums up the last 2 years for them
Teams aren’t serious about trading some players. The make outrageous demands for them.
Not hard to see this one coming. seriously, though, trading Hamels and holding on to the other bad contracts does what for the Phillies?
Lets you finish a rebuild in 2 years when all those bad contracts come off the books?
You don’t give a left handed ace at 30 years old who is locked up for years away for less than multiple top prospects.
You don’t give a left handed ace at 30 years old who is locked up for years away for less than multiple top prospects.
All Phillies trades are on hold………their GM will get fired
Rueben Amaro destroyed the team Gillick built.
Hamels makes so much sense for the cards and Phillies. Phillies should get Taveras, Shelbey Miller and another 4-7 ranked prospect in return. Cards have a rotation of Adam W., Hamels, Wacha, Lynn etc for years. Yikes!!!
Phillies get a young potential stud in Taveras to build baround with Franco. The Phillies also are serious about the Cuban kid Rusney Castillo. Put !iller in the rotation.
That’s a nice core to build around.
This makes too much sense.
That works,and Miller has upside
Hamels makes so much sense for the cards and Phillies. Phillies should get Taveras, Shelbey Miller and another 4-7 ranked prospect in return. Cards have a rotation of Adam W., Hamels, Wacha, Lynn etc for years. Yikes!!!
Phillies get a young potential stud in Taveras to build baround with Franco. The Phillies also are serious about the Cuban kid Rusney Castillo. Put !iller in the rotation.
That’s a nice core to build around.
This makes too much sense.
I think it’s important to add that only the cubs, dodgers, and i think maybe the twins have 3 top 20 prospects. The cubs have more highly ranked prospects overall than dodgers. Twins obviously have like #1 and #10 plus one possibly at the just before the dodgers at 17 18 19. Can you expect the buying teams to cough up a prospect that far exceeds the top ceiling of the other teams #1 prospect? The twins aren’t even relevant in any of these trades for sp’s. The cubs have already sold so why would they want a rental? The dodgers are pretty sure for playoffs but they already have 3 good starters with (laugh at the argument) 12 wins lol a piece. But yes they all have 100+ era with ryu being closest to average. It makes me ask myself if the crown jewels make sense for the dodgers to trade to add a good/great pitcher to add to an already stuffed staff? A position player would be different. The dodgers suffering an injury to any of their big 3 would change the dynamic easily. The pirates system have 2 in top 20 and probably 4-5 in the top 100. Is their need the rotation? I don’t know but it seems the market is more sp’s available but the teams that can pay the most just don’t have a pressing need for sp’s.
Exactly. I think in general, Hammels is a great fit for the Dodgers. But I’m not the benefit of him to that rotation outweighs the king’s ransom. There are other starters out there (Houston’s three, Danks in CHW, etc.) that would help the dodgers and wouldn’t require giving up the prospect load. I agree with people on here that “if you want a cost controlled proven assett, you have to pay” but it doesnt make sense to give up any combination of Pederson/Seager/Urias for the Dodgers or event the cubs to give up a combo of Bryant/Baez/Russel for Hamels. There’s better value out there
Given the asking price, as a Cardinals fan, I hope they push more for David Price rather than Hamels. The package of Taveras, Miller, and the compensation pick between the 1st and 2nd round is a pretty strong package that should put the Cardinals in contention for Price, and if they can’t resign him, they still get a full season of him plus a NEW compensation pick when Price goes.
As good as the Cardinals farm system is, top 4 prospects for Hamels is just too much in my opinion (not that I blame the Phillies GM for asking for that much). And I doubt Lester would come much cheaper in the way of prospects, but there’s no assurance he’d end up being more than a 2-3 month rental, and I’d hate to see Taveras go for the equivalent of about 10 starts.
If you could give that same package to the Phillies would you not do that over Price? Price may be a better starter (although its not by a huge amount) but you get Hammels for longer. I feel Phillies asking price would come down if Taveras is involved.
By ERA+, Hamels and Price are pretty much interchangeable.
In RAJ language, what this means is: “I’m looking for a desperate GM to eat the back end of the Cole Hamels deal and in return I’ll take the farm.”
Logically speaking, if they want 2 or more top prospects, they need to eat 50% of the remaining dollars.
Teams are not eating anything. Aces in their prime cost what he is getting paid. Aces cost money.
Which is fair. but the point is, very few teams can take on a 15+ million a yr player outright, let alone take him on, give up tops prospects, and still compete in the present and future. Hammel’s value, or any aces value, might very well be 2-3 top prospects and eating all the salary, but teams aren’t going to do that when they can sign scherzer or lester in the offseason. Hammels 4/90 or 5/115 left is reasonable, but from the Dodgers perspective if you give option A) Hammels and his full contract for pederson and seager or Option B) Lester at 5/125 or 6/150, I’m taking lester because the top prospects and their control is worth more than the 35 mil in savings. GMs are right to be asking for these outrageous prices, but fans can’t then get upset when no one offers up that much and deals don’t get done
I hear what you’re saying but you also need to try and win in the present time as well. Phillies said they would pay 10-15 million for Hamels so that’s 18 million per year for him which ius a steal. Hamels gives you the best chance to win for the next 3 years compared to having Taveras. They still would have Piscotey and a solid farm system. You woukd not need Shelbey Miller with Hamels.
Exactly. And it’s obviously a team by team analysis. I used the Dodgers since I know the most about their prospects, but a team who thinks the next 1-3 yrs if their shot might pull the trigger. I just think its a huge gamble for this yr as opposed to signing someone next yr, but I see your point
Another risk is always counting on prospects because they do bust and gms get fired. Some times using prospects as trade chips is more valuable than keeping them.
Blue Jays traded Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor, and Travis d’Arnaud for Roy Halladay prior to the 2010 season. The Blue Jays then traded Taylor to Oakland for Brett Wallace.
None of those prospects have yet to turn into consistent MLB players. d’Arnaud is looking like he’s turned the corner and may be going forward… but even he was thought of as the least valuable piece at the time. Drabek, Taylor, and Wallace were all top-30 prospects at different publications.
Let’s not even get into all the prospects who have been traded for Cliff Lee (Phillies got him from Cleveland, Phillies sent him to Seattle, Seattle sent him to Texas)
There’s no such thing as a “can’t miss” prospect.
Not one was as high ad Taveras though but I get what your saying.
I think they could get 2 top prospects for Hamels without eating any contract. He’ll still only be 35 at the end of this contract, so it’s plausible he’ll still be at least a very good starter at the end of that.
I’m just not sure about 4 top prospects.
Phillies won’t get 4 and they know that. You start by asking high and go from there. I package of Taveras, Shelbey Miller and another mid level prospect makes sense for both teams. Imagine Adam W., Hamels, Wacha, Lynn etc for the next 4 years. Wow
Out of curiousity, anyone here who’s a Phillies fan, how would you feel about these potential trades (not which one would you prefer, but which ones would you be happy or unhappy if your team actually did them)
1) Hamels for Taveras, Miller, and a pick between the 1st and 2nd round
2) Hamels for Martinez, Miller, and a pick between the 1st and 2nd round
3) Hamels for Martinez, Piscotty, and Grichuk (our #2, #4, and #9 prospects, all MLB or AAA level)
Again, I’m sure the one with Taveras is what you’d WANT, but would you be mad at Package 2 or 3 if you heard that was the trade?
I’m a Phillies fan and I would take either option one or three. Both fill our needs and look fair for both teams.
For Hamels, none of those are enough. We’re talking about a top 5 LHP in his prime with a good contract under control through 2019. It’ll take a major system gutting to get him.
When your rebuilding you have to also be realistic about your demands. Those are good packages.
Sure, but when you’re rebuilding you don’t trade your best piece for 60 cents on the dollar. Especially when that piece can be kept and built around.
You are not winning anything with Hamels anyway so get the best you can. Some times you have to give a little. Hamels is a stud but Taveras and Miller can change the look of this’d franchise more than a pitcher going every 5th day.
You don’t trade a pitcher like Hamels unless you’re getting a ton in return. Look at what the Rays got for James Shields and swing-man Wade Davis 2 years ago. They got the #1 overall prospect in Wil Myers, 2 more top 100 prospects and more. That was for 2 years of Shields and Davis, though Davis has 3 years of options, but he’s been made a full time reliever so those will be expensive options at $7M, $8M and $10M.
For 5+ years of Hamels to the Cardinals it should cost no less than Taveras, Martinez, Piscotty/Grichuk, Tuivailala, Jenkins, PTBNL (one of their 1st round pitchers from ’14) and their competitive balance pick next year.
I know that’s a ton, but with a player like Hamels you don’t just give in and “get the best you can”. He’s the guy you hold onto until someone meets your asking price.
Or wait until the offseason when more teams can get involved. Options 2 and 3 above do very little for me.
There’s no reason Hamels couldn’t be moved in the off-season though. Granted none of the prospects traded for Roy Halladay turned into stars for the Blue Jays. But the return they got in December of 2009 was greater than what the previous GM turned down from the Phillies in July of 2009.
The Phillies could/should have done the same with Cliff Lee last year. he didn’t *HAVE* to be moved at the deadline, but he should have been traded during the Winter. Especially when teams chasing after Tanaka lost out and had money to spend and wanted an Ace.
What’s with all the good contract comments? He is making market value. That’s not good or bad
David Price on the other hand has not just a good contract, but a Great contract.
Good in terms that if someone were to acquire him they’re not paying $20M+/year for his age 37-38 seasons. Good in that he’s gotten the high priced contract and it doesn’t look awful, like many do.
Agreed that Price does have a great contract this year, but he’ll be over $20M next year before signing a mega-deal.
I consider a good contract one that is a very affordable one to pretty much any team. Not one that only 5 or 6 teams around the league can afford.
Again, I’m not saying his contract is bad, because it isn’t. Hope you understand my point(s).
I get that and it is expensive. But in today’s game pretty much everyone can have at least 1 $20M/year deal, with the exception of probably the Rays and maybe the Orioles, especially with that Ubaldo deal. With all the outside money teams get we’re not far from just about every team having a $100M+ payroll.
Marlins and Astros come to mind as well, although I suppose we don’t know when the latter will be willing to suddenly absorb a higher payroll hit.
The Marlins have the money with all the cash they get from revenue sharing the national TV deals, but they’ll have a hard time bringing in high priced talent since they don’t give NTC’s and how they sold just a year after spending big on Reyes and Buehrle, and before Ramirez became expensive.
Well, my point was more along the lines of: “they have the money, but they don’t spend it.” Whether because Loria feels that any year isn’t complete without purchasing an original Matisse, or just because he’s the most ridiculously conservative investor in history (and/or he treats the team solely as an investment enterprise), the fact remains that he’s loathe to dip deep into his checkbook for anything – even a stadium.
Marlins and Astros come to mind as well, although I suppose we don’t know when the latter will be willing to suddenly absorb a higher payroll hit.
I get that and it is expensive. But in today’s game pretty much everyone can have at least 1 $20M/year deal, with the exception of probably the Rays and maybe the Orioles, especially with that Ubaldo deal. With all the outside money teams get we’re not far from just about every team having a $100M+ payroll.
I like Martinez and Miller but the Phils definitely need at least 1 position player back in the deal so that rules out #2 for me. Value seems about right in #1 and 3. I could also see the Phils preferring a player in the low minors over the sandwich pick that way they can infuse him into their system immediately rather than wait a year. But then again, what do I really know? More than Amaro probably.
I completely agree. Taveras would start in the mlb lineup right away and Miller would be in the rotation. The prospect can develop in the farm. That’s a fair deal. Phillies could sign Rusney Castillo to play center field. The Phillies would have a talented young copre with Franco, Castillo, Taveras or Piscotey with Crawford coming soon. Miux in Utley and Byrd and they have something to watch again.
completley fair yup.
They asked for Top Prospects from Boston and Philadelphia, but what did they ask for from NY?
NY doesn’t have the top prospects. Face it the Yankees are stuck with an old broken down team.
The Yankees should have started rebuilding a long time ago. They are grasping at straws.
Their farm is better than your Giants team.
The only reason people say the Yankees farm system is one of the worst is because they are the most hated team in the league.
Think Cliff Lee not Hamels. He is more up their ally than Hamels.
I’ve wanted them to get Lee in the past. Not so much anymore. Especially RAJ’s ridiculous asking price.
They always said the Giants have a bad farm system. The prospects led the Giants to 2 World Championships. What have the Yankees done for you lately?
I never heard anyone say the Giants have a Always had a bad farm system.
And the Yankees have 1 WS in 5 years and 5 in 18 years. Not too shabby 🙂
Sites are saying they will have 4 top 100 prospects this year. And the age of their MLB team is 100% irrelevant.
That’s the joke.
I didn’t know there were 2 Philadelphia MLB teams.
Hamels’ contract is not bad if you’re a big market team. Yea you can’t trade him to the Rays… go figure.
Exactly. The Phillies are willing to throw in 10-15 million too which means Hamels is going to cost 18 million per year. That’s a steal.
The trade deadline is tomorrow. So far it looks like teams don’t want to give up their best prospects, let alone multiple best prospects.
Teams always posture until the last minute.
Prediction
Lester to the Brewers or Pirates
Hamels to the Cardinals
The Brewers should go all-in on Lester. When’s the next time they’ll be in this position? They obviously don’t have the farm systems that Pit and Chicago have, and STL and even Cincy don’t appear to be going anywhere anytime soon.
I’m not real familiar with the Brewers system, but I know it’s not particularly strong. Do they have the pieces to get Lester? I know they’ve got Nelson, but what else do they have that’s of value?
It’s definitely not strong, but maybe the Sox would be enticed by a package of Nelson and a few high ceiling guys. Devin Williams might interest the Sox- he’s struggled this year but has all the raw tools you would look for in a 19 year old pitcher. Victor Roache is another high ceiling low floor guy who might be worth taking a chance on.
As a Sox fan I would prefer other deals, but you could do a lot worse than Nelson and some lottery tickets.
It’s stunning how teams don’t want to give up 3 “top” prospects for Cole Hamels, for 4 years of service totaling $80 million (after Phillies said they would throw in $10 million cash).
After watching other “top” untouchable prospects crash (J. Profar, M. Olt, Dom Brown, among others) I would trade top prospects in a heartbeat for a Cole Hamels who I can control for 4 years, and probably could then trade 2 years down the road if needed for a good haul if he stays dominant.
Honestly, how often does a player like Hamels come along with 4 years of control? Its stunning GMs are like, uh no thanks.
Yes I am a Phillies fan and would hate to lose him, as I can’t imagine what pitchers they would field next year, but it seems like a win-win for Phillies and whichever team trades for Hamels.
Just my take on it.
“It’s stunning how teams don’t want to give up 3 “top” prospects for Cole Hamels, for 4 years of service totaling $80 million (after Phillies said they would throw in $10 million cash). ”
It’s not all that stunning. He’s one of the highest paid pitchers in the game (rightfully so) and teams can just sign Scherzer or Lester in the offseason for about the same if not a little bit more and not give up Anybody
His contract isn’t a great contract. A better word I’d say is Fair.
The AAV may be about the same (I’d wager higher, but I’ll concede that it’s possible they go as low as the $22.5 average that Hamels has), but the years won’t be. No way do Scherzer or Lester agree to 4+1 year deals unless the AAV is markedly higher.
Also, by ERA+ (which is weighted), neither Scherzer (116) nor Lester (111) have been as good as Hamels (126) over the past 3+ seasons.
Hamel’s deal was originally a 6 year extension anyway for about $130. Lester and Scherzer will probably get around the same. I should have been more clear so my fault.
Right, but what it was originally isn’t important anymore because we’re almost 2 years into it. If you could get Scherzer or Lester on a 4-year deal, you’d jump on it, because that’d be just about the best intersection of risk and cost certainty for a top arm.
However, those guys will probably need 5+1(player) or (more likely) 6+1(team/vest). Hamels is a 4+1(team/vest), with the option year at a lower cost than the previous.
Hamels’ contract is fair AAV-wise. What makes it a bargain at this point is the duration (and the cost certainty that brings).
Well let me ask you this, what’s a better move for a large market team right now
Sign Scherzer/Lester (let’s say similar to a deal Hamels got in his extension) or give up 3-4 top prospects and pay a good amount for Hamels? I think most teams would prefer the former over the latter.
Hamel’s deal was originally a 6 year extension anyway for about $130. Lester and Scherzer will probably get around the same. I should have been more clear so my fault.
I’m a Phillies fan and agree with what you said but I think we need to come down a little min our demands. A package of Taveras, Shelbey Miller and a mid level prospect is fair. That could change our entire franchise for the better. We are not going anywhere with Hamels alone. Irt would also free up around 19 million to spend in other areas of need.
I think that’s a completely fair offer too.
Say we spent some of the saved money on Rusney Castillo to team up with Taveras and soon to be in the bigs Maikel Franco? They could go from old to younger over night. They still have Utley band Byrd for now. Shed some of Lees contract in August too.
I don’t know what teams are offering, but if teams aren’t offering “3 ‘top’ prospects,” then the stunning thing is the Phillies won’t lower their demands. The market is what it is. If the market price for Hamels isn’t 3 elite prospects, then that isn’t the market price for him.
Exactly. Two top Prospects and a lower is fair IMO.
Or you wait until the offseason or next season or next offseason when the market yields what you think he’s worth. The Phillies aren’t under the gun to deal Hamels or anything.
Then pay him whatever they are so they can say they won 75 games instead of 65.
And that really isn’t the point. If you aren’t really selling, then don’t make Hamels available until you are really making him available. If you are asking more than the market dictates, you aren’t really selling. If McDonald’s starts selling their hamburgers for $200.00 each tomorrow, they aren’t really in the hamburger selling business anymore and you just look stupid.
I mean, keep Hamels until you really need to trade him. But if I’m a Phillies fan, my concern would be that our ownership continues to not be serious about selling, and keeps asking for a price above what the market will allow for our players, and that when the time comes and we do REALLY need to trade Hamels, that will continue.
The Phillies not fully committing to selling has absolutely nothing to do with moving Hamels for less then what he’s worth.
Hamels is worth what teams are willing to pay for him, and it appears no team is willing to pay what the Phillies are asking.
…or Hamels costs what the Phillies are charging and it appears no team is willing to meet that at the current time. Either way, you don’t establish someone as being “right” and someone being “wrong” because a trade didn’t happen.
Selling price and market worth are two different things.
Great.
Point is, without knowing what teams were offering, it’s improper to wag our collective finger at the Phillies for not being “reasonable” in their demands. Honestly, I don’t really see the perfect candidate out there to be interested – A) someone with money, B) a legit contender, C) a noticable hole in the rotation and D) the prospect depth to withstand making the deal. The Phillies best hope was always going to be Lee getting healthy and being Lee. Just have to hope that happens.
I’m going to guess Hamels to the dodgers for Kemp and 1-2 prospects that aren’t LA’s big 3.
I don’t think they can !move Kemp now. I bet it would be Pederson, Urias and a low prospect.
I thik LA would refuse to part with Pederson or with Seager. They might trade urias, but I’d want more for Hamels.
Yeah, but they don’t have room for Pederson in the next couple years if they keep Kemp. They have a better chance to win with Hamels and Kemp than they do with no Hamels with Pederson and Kemp.
They do if they move Ethier and/or Crawford. Why anyone is still talking about a Kemp trade is a mystery to me.
Yankees have top prospects?
They dont have the prospects fort Hamels. Maybe for Lee or Byrd.
Apparently good enough for Philly to look at. Highly unlikely Byrd nets a top prospect. Same could be said for Lee who has pitched poorly since returning from injury.
How so? It won’t be for Hamels. I can see for Lee.
Sorry I’m not sure what the How so is referring to. How so has Lee pitched poorly?
I believe he means how so in regards to the Yankees having enough to get Hamels.
They (likely) have 4 top 100 prospects with (likely) 2 in the top 50. If Yankees ate nearly all of Hamels salary that’s easily enough to get Hamels. But it’s not smart for the Yankees or any team to do that when there are top FA available. Strategically the Much better move is to sign one of them and keep the talent that you got.
Again, most of you Phillies fans are not putting Hamels contract into any consideration in your trade ideas. He’s one of the highest paid players in the game. His contract is 5-10x as much as David Price who is even arguably better. Price has a contract every team can afford. Hamels doesn’t.
As I said , there are much better strategic moves teams like the Yankees, Dodgers and Red Sox can do than to trade for Hamels (for what RAJ is asking for).
Once more, the Phillies don’t need anyone to “eat” Hamels salary. They need close to ML ready prospects, not money. I don’t see the Yankees prospect pool as a match.
I’m not sure what relevance the contract of someone who hasn’t yet reached FA and almost certainly isn’t available for trade has to do with anything, but the appeal of Hamels is that he’s yours for 4-5 years. Price is a FA after next season. And Price would cost a mint – no one’s arguing that. CarGo makes 10x (I’m guessing) what Mike Trout does even though he’s not as good – that doesn’t mean he’s not worth trading big for.
you are completley overvaluing your farm system.
Severino’s value has jumped up this year,but he is questionable.
Gary has lost value this year,and even though he was once a top 30 prospect, he has declined in the last 2 years.
Judge has potential though.
I’m not overvaluing anything. Your GM is the one who overvalues. He offered Byrd for Judge
4 in the top 100, 2 in the top 50, so yes. Unless you are looking at a top 20, then no.
Gammons confirms Seager, Pederson & Urias going NOWHERE. Going to shake that “Yankees West” tag yet….