During their third consecutive season without a playoff appearance, the Diamondbacks shook things up from top to bottom. With a very different regime in place, Arizona figures to make some serious changes this winter.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Miguel Montero, C: $40MM through 2017
- Paul Goldschmidt, 1B: $30.5MM through 2018
- Trevor Cahill, SP: $25MM through 2015 (including buyouts of 2016 & 2017 options)
- Aaron Hill, 2B: $24MM through 2016
- Bronson Arroyo, SP: $14MM through 2015
- Cody Ross, OF: $9.5MM through 2015
- Brad Ziegler, RP: $6MM through 2015
- Oliver Perez, RP: $2.5MM through 2015
- Josh Collmenter, RP: $1.4MM through 2015
Arbitration Eligible Players (Service time in parentheses; projections via Matt Swartz)
- Cliff Pennington (5.114): $3.3MM
- David Hernandez (5.095): $2.125MM
- Mark Trumbo (4.027): $5.7MM
- Wade Miley (3.044): $4.3MM
- Addison Reed (3.027): $3.8MM
- Jordan Pacheco (3.005): $1.0MM
- Non-tender candidates: Pacheco
Contract Options
- Daniel Hudson: $800K club option
- Matt Reynolds: $600K club option
Free Agents
- Nolan Reimold, Bobby Wilson
The writing was probably on the wall for General Manager Kevin Towers when the Diamondbacks hired Tony La Russa to oversee the front office in the spring. Towers, of course, got the ax last month and weeks later La Russa appointed his former ace Dave Stewart as GM and plucked De Jon Watson away from the Dodgers to serve as the senior VP of baseball operations. While some expect the Diamondbacks to take a step back before moving forward, Watson says that won’t be the case.
“I don’t see this as a complete rebuild,” said Watson, according to MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert. “I think we had some bad health, a little bad luck. This club is going to be better than most people are thinking they’re going to be going into next year. So I’m excited about coming back into Spring Training, I’m excited about this upcoming winter and going out and try to find upgraded talent to add to what we currently have in-house.”
Watson isn’t just being a sunny optimist – the Diamondbacks really did get hit hard by the injury bug in 2013. Left-hander Patrick Corbin was one of several young, talented starters who underwent Tommy John surgery in March, ending his season before it started. Reliever David Hernandez, who was looking to build off a strong finish to the 2013 season, also underwent Tommy John surgery prior to Opening Day. Star first baseman Paul Goldschmidt’s season ended in early August when a fastball from Pirates reliever Ernesto Frieri fractured his left hand. When considering those injuries plus the ones suffered by Mark Trumbo, A.J. Pollock, and pricey winter addition Bronson Arroyo, it’s easy to see how the Diamondbacks wound up losing 98 games.
The D’Backs now need to figure out who will lead the turnaround effort from the dugout. The club is casting a wide net in their managerial search with out-of-house options like Jim Tracy, Rangers interim manager Tim Bogar, and Sandy Alomar. Jr. alongside internal candidates Triple-A Reno manager Phil Nevin, Double-A Mobile manager Andy Green, and big-league hitting coach Turner Ward. If there are bonus points to be had for La Russa ties, someone like McEwing could have an advantage in the process.
After that, the Diamondbacks’ first order of business will probably be to address their starting rotation which has plenty of candidates but a greater number of question marks. Corbin may not be back in action until June and Arroyo will probably be sidelined for a few months thanks to his July Tommy John operation. As it stands now, the D’Backs have Wade Miley to head the rotation alongside rising sophomore Chase Anderson and Vidal Nuno. Josh Collmenter could be a consideration as well, though he may wind up in the bullpen rather than the starting five. Trevor Cahill will look to get back on track, though that is far from a given after his disappointing season. Prospects Archie Bradley and Andrew Chafin also figure to get long looks but how ready they are remains to be seen.
The best fix, arguably, would be to go after top free agent arms like Jon Lester, Max Scherzer, and James Shields. However, Stewart and Watson expressed doubt that they can work those kinds of guys into the budget in a recent chat with Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic. Don’t count on a blockbuster, either. Stewart doesn’t seem to have the trading bug like his predecessor did and he indicated that a trade of minor league talent to acquire an established pitcher is unlikely.
So, where does that leave us? With a bevy of young starting pitching talent and a limited budget, the D’Backs could look to sign veteran arms to short, affordable deals. Thanks to his age and a career path that has been anything but linear, Aaron Harang might be available at a reasonable price. As I wrote earlier this week, Harang has some similarities with Arroyo including age and the ability to eat up a lot of innings, though he should cost a lot less than Arroyo did at $23.5MM guaranteed over two years. Names like Roberto Hernandez and Kyle Kendrick could also get a look if the D’Backs are looking for affordable pitching, and on a one-year deal, they could be moved come summertime when the staff should be back to full health. If Arizona is willing to take on more pitchers coming back from injury, Chad Billingsley, Brett Anderson and Gavin Floyd shouldn’t cost much, and each offers some upside.
While it’s lower on the to-do list than the rotation, the D’Backs may also look to add a piece or two to their bullpen. The Diamondbacks aren’t expected to target top relievers, but notable names like Jason Frasor, Matt Lindstrom, and Matt Belisle could get looks as the D’Backs seek to improve on their 3.92 bullpen ERA from last season, the eighth-highest in the majors. Stewart unfortunately faces the unenviable task of trying to lure free agent pitchers to a one of the game’s most hitter-friendly environments just months after his team finished with the worst record in baseball. Because of that, it wouldn’t be surprising to see their bullpen signing come down after the New Year when some relievers are left hanging.
While Towers wanted to add an outfield bat, that’s one area that we can safely expect Stewart & Co. to leave alone. “I think that A.J. (Pollock) in center, (David) Peralta played well, (Mark) Trumbo will probably be in the outfield mix with (Paul) Goldschmidt being at first base and being healthy again,” the GM explained to The Arizona Republic’s Zach Buchanan. “It’s a pretty solid outfield, in my opinion.” Like it or lump it, outfielder Cody Ross will also be there in support thanks to his $8.5MM salary.
Arizona will leave their depleted farm system alone, but there are trade chips to work with on the varsity squad, particularly in the infield. Second baseman Aaron Hill is no stranger to the pages of MLBTR and he could, in theory, be moved this offseason. Hill will be 33 come Opening Day and is still owed $24MM through 2016, but he plays a position of need for many other clubs. Shortstops Cliff Pennington and Nick Ahmed could also be trade candidates. Pennington posted a .253/.346/.358 batting line to go with his usually solid defense but they might choose to move him and his $3.3MM projected salary. With several teams looking for a shortstop, including the Mets, Arizona could find a ripe market for their shortstop surplus. If Arizona installs Chris Owings and Didi Gregorius in the middle infield full-time and reallocates that money elsewhere, it’ll give them much more flexibility.
All in all, it’s hard to say how much breathing room the D’Backs will have this winter as they survey the free agent market. Arizona already has ~$67MM committed to the roster with arbitration raises due for Miley, Pennington (if tendered an offer), David Hernandez, Addison Reed and Mark Trumbo. One month ago, Diamondbacks CEO Derrick Hall said that he payroll will likely scale back from $112MM to about $100MM, but La Russa has since said that it could be anywhere between $80-110MM, depending on whether or not there is value to be found. Value or no value, it’d be a surprise to see the team under $90MM if they truly want to compete next year.
It’ll take some creativity for the D’Backs to get back into contention in 2015, but then again, this is the franchise that was creative enough to invent the title of “chief baseball officer.”
No manager hired as yet. Don’t be surprised if it’s Jose Oquendo.
I heard that it will be announced tomorrow and they have 4 finalists: Tracy, Hale, Nevin, and Sandy Alomar.
Yes I read that on this site as well.
Mark Trumbo just put his house up for sale in Phoenix. Does he know something we don’t?
Maybe, or maybe not. He’s only got two years left on his current contract anyway, so he probably isn’t around for the long haul.
Pretty obvious trade candidate, what with the complete absence of right handed power on the market this year. But I doubt he knows something we don’t.
Shouldn’t Cliff Pennington qualify as a non-tender candidate given them scaling back their payroll and the existence of two cheaper shortstops in Owings and Gregorius, plus Hill? 3.3 MM is a lot for someone completely not needed..
It would seem to be the obvious path of least resistance in terms of cutting some payroll.
I think he’d have some trade interest at that price tag. May as well hold onto him for now and see how things play out.
Agree he would have some trade value, steady professional approach both with bat and glove. Type of player that doesn’t excite fans as much as coaches.
That said he is more of a 3.3 m luxury for the Dbacks at this point
I find it mildly interesting that Vidal Nuno went 0-7 with the Diamondbacks while producing 1.0 WAR. I don’t think I’ve seen that before.
Just another anecdotal piece of evidence to prove pitcher win/loss records are utterly pointless stats.
The offense was nonexistent when he pitched, literally nonexistent.
It was actually ridiculous. In games in which Nuno let up 2 or less earned runs he had 5 no decisions, 4 losses, and 0 wins. That made up more than half his starts and half his losses
FYI, Wilson and Reimold have already been outrighted to AAA-Reno and elected free agency, so they’re off the arbitration board.
Thanks for noting; looks like this was cleaned up.
Cahill information incorrect. He is a FA after 2015 season. 2016 is a team option and unlikely to be picked up barring a comeback player of the year type season.
I think Zach wrote it that way b/c his first buyout comes in ’16. But I edited to clarify. Thanks for noting.
Also Stewart has said Miley and Collmenter are locks for the rotation. The other 3 spots are up for grabs at this point. Collmenter is not likely to go back to the pen unless he has a spring implosion and lousy April like he did in 2013
Correcting myself now, it was 2012 when collmenter had the rough start and got bounced back to the pen.
Yea, Miley is the only pitcher who has shown legitimate talent in the past and Collmenter won pitcher of the year for the D-backs. Both seem like safe bets. I also think Chase Anderson will start because he showed a lot of promise and Cahill, because he’s 26, making a lot of money, and really is dead weight unless you give him every chance to turn things around
we need to rid ourselves of one of those awful contracts (Ross, Cahill, Hill)
maybe try something like one of our young shortstops and Cahill to the Yankees for a box of crayons. ill risk losing one of them for nothing just get rid of one of those contracts. I believe hill will be fine next year so maybe wait til the deadline to move him while he gains some value back (every other year he sees to hit well), and Ross has zero value…
i think Trumbo needs to go he’s a liability in the OF and 1B is taken, maybe Seattle or Minnesota needing DH help…
I do like the hiring of Hale i think were finally heading in the right direction. I liked Gibson but we were getting a bad rap with his managing style, refreshing to see new faces in charge
Regarding Cahill and Ross: they both only have a year on their contract so I’d rather bite the bullet then trade 6 years of a prospect, especially considering no one expects them to be serious contenders next year. Hill is the only one with multiple years and he could actually have some value to another team. The D-backs would just have to eat some money.
I agree with Trumbo. I would also look to teams that need a 1B. He’s actually a decent fielding 1B. The only reason he never played was because every team he’s been on had a Gold Glove 1B. That would bring teams like Milawukee or Pittsburgh into the mix.
If he is on the Opening Day Roster, here’s something unconventional but worth trying: hit Trumbo 3rd and Goldy 4th. I know that Goldy is clearly the better 3 hitter and Trumbo is expected to protect Goldy but this is how I see it. You are more likely to see Trumbo go from a .220 hitter to a .260 hitter by seeing more fastballs with Goldy behind him than you are to see Goldy go from .315 to .355 with Trumbo behind him.