Last winter, veteran starter Aaron Harang hooked on with the Indians on a minor league deal and, at the time, he appeared to have a strong chance of being the fifth man in the Tribe’s rotation. In March, when he was informed that he wouldn’t be a part of the Opening Day roster, Harang requested and secured his release. That same day, he agreed to a big league deal with the Braves and he did not disappoint in Atlanta. Now, the 36-year-old is hitting the open market once again and this time around he should only be fielding big league offers.
Strengths/Pros
Harang exceeded all expectations this season as he turned in a 3.57 ERA with 7.1 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9. A lot of pitchers tend to tail off around Harang’s age, but this past year ranks as one of his very best at the big league level. His ERA was the lowest it has ever been (ditto for his identical 3.57 FIP) and his 204.1 innings of work stands as his highest total since 2007. Ultimately, his $1MM deal proved to be one of the better free agent bargains of 2014.
The 36-year-old won’t be held back by a qualifying offer and there’s reason to believe he could continue to deliver a ton of innings for his next team. Harang hasn’t been on the disabled list with an arm-related injury since 2008 and he can hardly be penalized for his late season emergency appendectomy in 2009.
Harang didn’t magically discover the fountain of youth or go on a hardcore Julio Franco-esque diet this past season. Instead, as he explained to David Lee of The Augusta Chronicle late last month, he has become a craftier pitcher in recent years.
“I threw a lot more four-seamers when I was younger,” Harang said. “I had a coach show me how to throw a two-seamer, and I started doing it, and every year it seems to be more effective. Once you get used to throwing it and realize how key that pitch can be, you make those adjustments.”
Harang made a concerted effort to start throwing more two-seam fastballs in 2009. As Lee notes, in 2008, when he threw 64 percent four-seamers and 8 percent two-seamers, he posted a 4.78 ERA and averaged 1.7 home runs per nine innings. This season, it was much more balanced with Harang throwing 29% two-seamers and 30% four-seamers. Harang’s pitch velocity has faded a bit in recent years, but thanks to a different approach on the mound, he has been able to adjust and age more gracefully than a lot of his contemporaries.
Weaknesses/Cons
While Harang’s 2014 performance was strong, his 2013 campaign didn’t go quite as smoothly. At the start of the season, the Dodgers traded Harang to the Rockies for Ramon Hernandez before he was quickly DFA’d and flipped to the Mariners just days later. After posting a 5.76 ERA with 6.5 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 in 22 starts for Seattle, the M’s DFA’d him in August. Harang finished out the year with the Mets, meaning that he had bounced between four clubs all within that year. In total, Harang had a 5.40 ERA – a number his next club doesn’t want to see – with 7.1 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9.
This year, while his ERA was solid and his strikeout and walk rates were more or less consistent with his career average, some of the advanced metrics aren’t as crazy about his performance. Both xFIP (4.03) and SIERA (4.18) feel that Harang’s ERA should have been a touch higher than 3.57.
Harang is putting less emphasis on his heater than he was earlier in his career, but it’s still hard to ignore his decreasing velocity. Harang threw his fastball at an average of 88.8 MPH, his lowest average in the past eight years that it has been recorded by PITCHf/x. If his velocity continues to lose steam, it’s fair to wonder whether his 6.4% HR/FB ratio from 2014 can be sustained. For his career, Harang has a decidedly less sharp 10.2% HR/FB ratio.
Personal
Harang and his wife Jennifer have three children. He knows how important fatherly wisdom can be as he attributes his 2,100+ innings of major league work to sage advice from his dad.
“I would never teach a kid a breaking pitch until age 13,” Harang said, according to Anna McDonald of ESPN.com. “My dad wouldn’t show me one. He didn’t want [my elbow] to blow out. So I didn’t start throwing a curveball until I was 13 years old. I had the karate-chop one, where you just throw it and it spins up there. Your muscles aren’t developed enough, your ligaments aren’t developed enough to withstand it.”
Harang, a San Diego native, told Dan Hayes (then of U-T San Diego) in 2010 that he prefers fish tacos to Skyline Chili, even though he has spent the bulk of his career in Cincinnati. He also prefers The Simpsons to Family Guy, which is the right choice in my book.
Market
For his part, Harang told reporters, including MLB.com’s Mark Bowman, that he would be interested in pitching for Atlanta again. The Braves undoubtedly appreciate his work this year, but they also know that they can’t retain him with another one-year, $1MM deal. In theory, the Braves can trot out a starting five of Mike Minor, Kris Medlen, Julio Teheran, Brandon Beachy, and Alex Wood. However, Medlen and Beachy are recovering from Tommy John surgery with unknown return dates and it would certainly help to have a battle-tested veteran pitcher at the ready.
Still, he may not be in the budget in Atlanta and he may not take a discount to stay put since this could be his last sizable deal. The Pirates are one team that could use a reasonably priced out-of-house addition to their rotation. Harang may also find a match with teams like the Astros and Rockies if he’s not aiming for a likely contender.
Expected Contract
Last winter, Bronson Arroyo, also at the age of 36, secured a guaranteed $23.5MM over two years from the Diamondbacks with an $11MM club option. Like Arroyo, Harang fits the profile of a durable innings eater who isn’t dependent on velocity for success and both had strong walk years before hitting the open market. However, not all innings eaters are created equal: before Arroyo’s unfortunate UCL tear this season, he pitched 200 innings or more from 2005 through 2013, with the exception of a 199 inning total in 2011. Also, Harang’s vagabond 2013 might hurt his case for big money.
We expect the Levinson brothers to readily bring up Arroyo’s name, but Harang probably won’t match his deal. I predict Harang will land a two-year, $14MM deal this offseason.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Sounds like just the type of guy that the Royals would sign for cheap and stick on the mound behind that concrete bunker defense in their big ballpark. And they’ll presumably need one more starter since they can’t afford James Shields at market rates.
He would be a perfect pitcher for Kansas City. He needs to pitch in a big ball park.
He needs the National League, he tried the AL and look how that turned out.
Every GM is thinking they can have him for “cheap”. Good luck. Nothing more depressing than a mini-bidding war…for Aaron Harang.
2014: 204 IP with a 3.57 ERA. 1.9 rWAR. 2.5 fWAR.
Every year any capable major league free agent has a mini bidding war involving them. If that makes you depressed, please seek help.
It’s in the context of it being Harang, as opposed to the market itself. Thanks for the tip, I’ve got enough free samples of Levitra to help.
Are you suggesting that Harang exists in an alternate universe were he is not part of the market?
“Harang also prefers The Simpsons to Family Guy.”
Well, I guess Boston is out then.
There’s a Springfield, Massachusetts.
The Braves cannot depend on Beachy. Medlen, or Minor for that matter. Need solid arms to fall behind Teheran & Wood for ’15.
Volquez?
Why can’t he be in Atlanta’s budget, exactly? They’ve got ~19 MM coming off the books in Harang’s own 1 MM, Ervin’s 14 MM and Floyd’s 4 MM, and Wood/Medlen/Teheran/Beachy/Minor doesn’t cost much. If everyone is healthy, Wood can be used in relief and spot starting duties, but everyone likely won’t be healthy.
“If everyone is healthy, Wood can be used in relief and spot starting duties…”
No.
Wood is done in the bullpen. He’s a major-league starter, and a good one.
He was used in the bullpen this year to keep his innings manageable. 2013 saw him pitch 140 innings in his first full professional season. He hit 180 this year. He’s good for 33 starts in 2015. There’s no reason to put your best pitcher (yes, he’s better than Teheran) in the pen because your 4th, 5th, and 6th best pitchers happen to be healthy.
I agree Wood is definitely the best pitcher in the rotation, but I don’t think any of the other starters could be that swing-man. Ideally, Beachy and Medlen would be swing-starter/relievers. Wood definitely needs as many innings as he can get, but he also is an important piece of their club if he allows them to maintain some rotation flexibility. You cross the bridge of too many starters when you get to it. Medlen/Minor/Beachy is not a 3/4/5 I would feel comfortable with heading into a season with playoff aspirations.
Insert Jim Mora Sr. quote here. Playoffs?! Playoffs?!?!
How do you go from “long relief and spot starting duties” to “I agree Wood is definitely the best pitcher in the rotation”?
It’s possible for somebody to amend an idea. I think he more accurately communicated in the response that:
– the Braves can’t go into a season counting on 90+ starts from Medlen/Minor/Beachy
– you deal with “too many starters” when you actually have too many starters
Wood is definitely not going to the pen (although, Fredi… so…) and I think Metsfan93 realizes that.
Completely flip flopping statement to statement isn’t “amending” an idea.
So you expect him to continue to defend a bad idea once it’s been pointed out that it’s a bad idea? And, yes, he amended his idea. He said they needed another arm. He still says they need another arm.
Give the guy a break; it’s not necessary to bury everybody who disagrees with you.
I didn’t bury him. I pointed out that he literally did a 180. What is the point in commenting if you do not expect someone to reply?
I made one comment towards him. That’s not “burying” anyone.
Atlanta went well beyond its comfort zone to add Ervin Santana and missed the playoffs anyway. I don’t imagine ownership going near the $112MM payroll again.
They have $79.6MM committed to next year’s team as is, before arb figures for Beachy, Minor, Medlen, Carpenter, Walden and Russell are figured in. If those come in around $19MM or so, which may be a touch light, they’re at just under $99MM.
Kimbrel’s due a $2MM raise. Freeman $3MM. Heyward $3MM. Johnson $1.25MM. Simmons $2MM.
There really isn’t a ton of flexibility unless they’re willing to go well beyond $100MM again
They don’t have any needs except for another starting pitcher, and with Uggla’s expiring salary they could backload your 2-year, 14 MM pact towards 2016. I like the contract- 2/14 seems fair for Harang – I just could see Atlanta stretching it again. They clearly have the ability since they did so this year, and they definitely still have the need. Ownership stretched it because Beachy and Medlen went down. When that happened, Atlanta still had Floyd under contract and were under the assumption Mike Minor would be *good*. Now Minor, Medlen, Beachy are serious question marks, and Ervin and Floyd are FAs as well. I don’t see why they can’t stretch it again to accomodate avoiding the exact same scenario next year as they did this year. Wood and Teheran are the only “sure things” in the rotation.
“Can” and “will” are different in this case. Team had slight downturn in attendance, is still waiting for future bump in stadium $, and has already figured in TV deal increases. No postseason revenue to bolster the coffers.
Will ownership be willing to kick in another $10MM after seeing the results from last year? Would that amount make a substantial difference — i.e., are they one good or two decent players away from being a competitor again? It’s an open question, but I don’t think it’s a slam dunk.
And I think the front office is smart enough to know that backloading Aaron Harang contracts to avoid the hurt of your Dan Uggla contracts is probably not a winning strategy in the long run.
Agreed with Jeff’s points. Ownership stretched because it believed it had a contender in place and a sudden, last-minute need for starting pitching. What can the new GM’s pitch for extra funding be? “We’re just a few million away from getting Aaron Harang back, which will allow us to put roughly the same product on the field as last year when we lost 83 games.”
I agree that the team is capable of doing so, but there needs to be a clear motivation to do so, and keeping in tact a pitching staff on a team that finished below .500 and proved to be a disappointment doesn’t strike as being that motivation.
They’re not keeping the pitching staff intact. Wood will pitch more, Medlen and Beachy should be back, and they’ll have less of those replacements. Subtracting Uggla’s dismal performance is another positive, and they should definitely reasonably expect more out of Gattis/Simmons/CJ. I really think they’re a legitimate postseason contender next season. Their late-season collapse is underrating their season. I believe they’re close enough to justify retaining Harang at this reasonable price.
Also, in your raises, BJ Upton is getting a 1 MM bump.
Whoops, I see Steve already chimed in with the same conclusions I reached in a comment below. Yeah, about $100MM seems inevitable unless they give up Medlen/Beachy (injury risk, but also cheaper than a replacement) or a useful player like the other arb-eligibles (which is only going to save money if you are willing to roll the dice on an unproven youngster).
Creative trade exploration is going to be the mantra, I think.
Another point: Medlen is not any guarantee to be cheaper than Harang. Medlen earned 5.8 MM this year, and under my proposed deal for Harang, he’d be a 6-7 MM salary this season.
You have to remember the Braves’ have a new stadium looming. Personally I think the current owners (Liberty Media) are banking on selling the team once the new stadium opens or potentially once the current TV deal is close to expiring.
The reason I bring those two points up is that is why I would count on the Braves’ to regularly break the $112 million payroll mark for the next few/couple years. Does that mean a successful team? Of course not. I just think that the current owners are not baseball people and rely on the current Braves’ front office to handle things. And that the owners are still buying the spin the front office is selling them.
But I think in the somewhat near future 5 years the team will be on the market with a lower payroll due to short-term overspending by the owners combined with frustration with underperformance by the team and falling fan attendence once the new stadium boost is over.
New stadium boost? “Falling fan attendance” is unlikely to happen, especially from where it’s currently at. The new stadium will boast less seats, and a more premium experience in the heart of suburban ATL. Even with a losing team, their new location should turn out as good attendance as they currently have. But don’t bet on them having a losing team, especially 5 years down the road when we’ll finally be rid of the Upton saga, and will have time for Roy Clark and the scouting efforts to pay off.
Simpsons over Family Guy? Simpsons was great, groundbreaking but hasn’t been funny in over a decade.
He’s pretty old, probably an old school fan.
Hasn’t been funny since 2001 to be exact, the golden age of the Simpsons was so long ago. They should’ve went with a Seinfeld route and not killed their legacy.
The Simpsons hasn’t killed its legacy at all. Last months FXX massive marathon delivered huge numbers and the show is just entering off network syndication due to a weird deal. The show’s golden age hasn’t been affected by its longevity.
‘Hasn’t been funny in over a decade’ is something that could easily apply to Family Guy as well.
Even in its heyday, it derived the vast majority of its jokes from either territory well trodden by the Simpsons or 80s pop culture humor. I’ve often wondered how Family Guy is that funny to the sort of people who don’t frequent the AV Club, but it’s not particularly appealing to that crowd either.
I take it you don’t like edgy comedy? I respectfully disagree. It sometimes goes too far and grosses me out but overall I love Family Guy.
I like all kinds of comedy, edgy or otherwise. Family Guy is dull.
BJ Upton gets a 1 MM bump, Kimbrel a 2MM bump, Freeman and Heyward combine for ~5.7 MM in payroll bumps, J-Up is the same, Chris Johnson is owed 1.25 MM more, and Doumit/Bonifacio/Laird/Harang/Floyd/Ervin combines for 26.6 MM in departing salaries. I imagine Venters will be non-tendered, which leaves Medlen, Minor, and Beachy as prominent arb cases, none of whom should receive any sort of material pay raise, though I could be incorrect there and do not know what their projected arb raises are. Teheran has a built in 200k raises, and Simmons a 2MM raise. Adding that all up, I see ~9.5 MM in payroll raises before accounting for any raises to James Russell, Mike Minor, Kris Medlen, Ramiro Pena, Jordan Walden, David Carptner, and Brandon Beachy through arb. Considering several of those could be non-tender candidates I’d imagine coming off serious surgeries or ineffectiveness, I can’t see them getting more than 5 MM in collective raises, which still leaves 8.5 MM free from departing salaries. It would appear they could afford a 6/8 2-year deal for Harang, especially with Uggla’s salary disappearing after this year and Uggla’s replacement in-house and pre-arb.
The easier way to do this is to just add up present commitments and guesstimate arb bumps.
They have $80MM locked in. I estimate perhaps just under $20MM in arb payouts (assuming only a Venters non-tender). You could reduce that if you want to non-tender Medlen, Beachy, Pena, etc, but then you have to replace those guys. (We can and will do all this with more precision once we get the projections and take a closer look.)
That would be a starting point of $100MM. If $112M was a stretch last year, then there’s not much room, especially if you’re relying on major question marks like Medlen and Beachy.
Uggla’s $13MM is set in stone, but I think they’ll have to look hard at other ways to free up some cash.
Um, no way the Braves “trot out” with Medlen and Beachy. While they are both recovering from TJ surgery, they are just not starters anymore. There is no way they can be expected to be anything but bullpen help and that is assuming they are given contracts by the Braves. I like and respect both pitchers in terms of both skill and personality, but if it was me…they’d be cut loose. I think bringing Harang back is a must. Teheran/Minor/Wood/Hale/Harang may not look the most attractive, but it may be what we have to settle for. We just have too many holes to fill scoring runs.
I concur, there is no chance the Braves rely on both Medlen and Beachy as starters in 2015.
3.57 ERA in the NL and a two year 14M deal is on the cards??
He was worth 12+ MM in (2014). Are you saying he doesn’t deserve that or he deserves more?
2/$17MM
1/$12MM
There’s no way Harang signs 2/$14. His 2014 was strong enough to net almost that dollar amount in a one year deal.
Who really wants to give Harang fourteen million? He’s an every other year pitcher and not a great one at that.
Offering Harang 2/14 is about as wise as offering Joe Blanton 2/15 was. Harang’s 2014 was his best season since 2007, does anyone really expect him to repeat that performance at age 37?