The Orioles are planning on making a qualifying offer to Nelson Cruz and decline their half of a $17.5MM option on Nick Markakis in favor of a $2MM buyout, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.
The Cruz decision has been evident for quite some time, given the slugger’s MLB-leading 40 homers and strong .271/.333/.525 batting line. Cruz struggled in the wake of a qualifying offer from the Rangers last offseason, ultimately settling for a one-year, $8MM contract with Baltimore. While many contend that the qualifying offer crushed his market — and that’s certainly part of the reason for his struggles — Cruz also hit the open market with sky-high expectations in 2013, reportedly seeking as much as $75MM in the early-going. Had he been open to signing for less, a strong multi-year offer may have been on the table. However, now that he’s coming off such a strong season that put more separation between him and a suspension for performance enhancing drugs, he’s a lock to turn down that QO and in a much better position to land a strong multi-year deal.
The Markakis decision could have gone either way, in my mind, but the decision to decline his option seems to indicate that he won’t be on the receiving end of a QO of his own. The Orioles, in theory, could have exercised their half of the option in hopes of Markakis declining his, then made a qualifying offer, assuming that a player at his age and with his track record wouldn’t want to play on a one-year deal. I thought that to be the likely outcome prior to Heyman’s report.
However, declining the option suggests that they’re not interested in paying him $17.5MM, which is nearly the exact amount that the buyout plus a qualifying offer of $15.3MM would total. It’s possible that Baltimore will still extend the QO in order to have saved roughly $200K in the event that Markakis accepts, but that would be a very peculiar route to take with someone who is so respected within the organization. The likely outcome now seems to be that he won’t cost a draft pick this offseason, which should dramatically improve his free agent stock.
The O’s have a large number of arbitration eligible players, including Chris Tillman, Zach Britton, Chris Davis, Matt Wieters and Bud Norris, so their arb-eligibles will inflate their payroll substantially. Because of that, it’s possible that the Orioles simply felt that they couldn’t fit both Markakis and Cruz into their 2015 budget, and their preference is to position themselves more strongly to retain Cruz’s power. The 30-year-old Markakis certainly didn’t have a poor season himself, however, as he hit .276/.342/.386 with 14 homers and right-field defense that graded out favorably from a metrics standpoint.
What do people think Markakis will command? He’s a peculiar player. He has a lot of sentimental value to Baltimore, but he was replacement level in 2013. He has a solid, ~2.5-win season in 2014, but he also played a boatload and was essentially an average player. His defensive has value has fluctuated greatly through the years, and his power has basically evaporated. What ballpark could play to his strengths? Would he command more than a 25 MM guarantee on the open market? Does he take a pillow contract to build up value and further distance himself from that disastrous 2013? Does he go for most guaranteed money? He’s an interesting free agent to watch.
Posting a Free Agent Profile on him tomorrow morning! #Cliffhanger
I wonder if Chris Davis may be a non-tender candidate to try and save money to retain both Cruz and Markakis. Not sure if the O’s would want to spend $10-12M in arbitration on Davis. What are your thoughts, Steve?
Can’t see it. Even if you assume his 53 homer season was a fluke, you have to consider this past year a fluke in terms of how bad it was as well.
The 30-homer upside is very real, and if the end result is even a slightly lesser version of his .247/.339/.534 two-year average from 2013-14, that’s worth the ~$12MM he’ll get in arb this season.
De Aza’s their most expensive NT candidate for me.
De Aza might be that, but I like him. He’s versatile and as speed combined with some power. He’s perfect in Camden Yards.
I would at least strongly entertain trading Davis for a medium return. Pearce & Machado have the infield corners locked in, and if they can keep Lough/Cruz/Markakis/Jones/De Aza together I think they should. Wieters/Hundley or Joseph behind the plate. I don’t think they really need Davis, unless they plan to DH Davis part-time, 1B/3B him part-time, with Machado and Pearce taking the remainder of the playing time there and Cruz/De Aza/Lough splitting the corners with Cruz at DH sometimes. They seem to have a bit of a talent logjam.
One point to that is that the only real power from the left side in that group is Davis, without him it becomes a very righty heavy lineup.
Keeping De Aza and Markakis together doesn’t make sense. Both are probably better suited for a platoon type role from the left side. The price for the two of them is far too high for that kind of player. Lough is the perfect platoon player. You throw a 6 to 8 million dollar guy with him and that’s fine. But you can’t throw 2 players with him at that price. One has to go.
And Davis is too much of a lottery ticket to just NT. It’s worth it for a team like the owes to pay the 10 to 11 million he will get next year and hope he can come even close to his 2013 season. Because if he even comes close, you will be getting a lot of value for that money.
Davis in Right Field next year if Markakis is gone, at DH if Cruz is gone. Hundley is gone for sure. Wieters with Joseph as the backup.
I think Duqette’s plan is tender De Aza and he moves to RF, Cruz to split LF/DH with Pierce and Davis goes back to first. Unless Markakis takes a big discount to stay (which isn’t out of the question given his family’s connection to the Baltimore area).
That plan would require re-signing Cruz. Far from a given.
True it’s not a given. But with the threat of another QO and the teams need/value of his power, I think he gets a 4 year deal from the O’s.
The QO’s not going to have anywhere near the impact it had on Cruz last year, coming off a 40 homer season. Plus, the QO wasn’t his main problem last year. Looking for $75MM was. By the time they finally lowered their expectations, teams had spent their money elsewhere and he was left standing. If he’d gone out looking for something more realistic from Day 1, he’d have been way better off than 1/8.
As it turns out, he may come out ahead anyway, since he had about as successful a year as one can imagine after taking a pillow contract.
I haven’t seen a pillow contract work out this well since Beltre with the Sox in ’10.
I’m not saying it will happen, but I could see Cruz taking 3 yrs/$50-55 mil to stay in Baltimore. The park is tailor-made for his bat and he has been repeatedly quoted saying how much Baltimore worked for him — Buck, the organization and his teammates all fit very nicely.
The discount would almost have to be gigantic for them to sign Markakis and keep De Aza. Both are essentially the same platoon player. So you really can’t justify paying both, unless you are getting one for pennies on the dollar, like they do Lough.
De Aza is still cheaper than Markakis. I would tender De Aza, let Markakis walk.
No shot of Davis being nontendered. You have a better shot of seeing De Aza set free and the O’s like him for what he’ll cost. I’d actually expect a medium-range term deal with Davis since he can’t go to the open market and command major dollars after his 2014. Think something along the lines of 3 yrs/$45-50 mil. It could be a flatline year for him in ’15 and buy two years of free agency at near market value ($10m in ’15, $15m in ’16 & $20m in ’17). Plus Davis could be a free agent again at 31.
$17M/2yrs or $25M/3yrs. Can’t see anyone overpaying for Nick Markakis, nobody is going into this off-season saying “We have to sign Nick Markakis!”.
I see the White Sox interested. He’s not the lefty power bat they might be after as well…but his lefty obp would slot well in the two hole.
And they need an outfielder who can actually
Play the outfield.
I agree if the white sox try to land him, and trade conor, tank, and possibly one of our young 2nd baseman for pitching! Try to sign a decent starting right hander. Sign David Robertson, j.p Howell. And try to sign panda, or chase at 3rd either one I’ll be happy
He is already playing in Camden. It’s not like he really going to find a better park to hit homers, by that much.
I think Markakis stays at a home town/veteran on the downslope of his career discount. 2 years/$24MM or 3 years/$33MM would be my guess…Oy. Honestly I wouldn’t give him more than 1 year/$8MM w/ a vesting option for the same.
I’m not sure DD is that interested in Markakis. Buck obviously loves him, but Buck also loved Jim Johnson, and DD shipped him off. I wouldn’t be surprised if they O’s are moving on from Markakis.
Some team is going to be very disappointed when they sign Nelson Cruz.
To justify the QO or an AAV of around $15M he basically needs to be a 2 – 2.5 WAR player. He was that and more in 2014. Same can be said for 2009 and 2010. What about 2011, 12, 13? Not so much. He averaged 1.3 WAR over his previous 3 seasons.
So you are basically making a bet that Cruz will continue to post offensive numbers that are 15-20% higher than his career average (adjusted for ballpark) all while entering his age 35 season. The assumption is that he is looking for a multiyear deal so it may be buying his 35, 36 and 37 age seasons. Wow. For a guy with a history of injury problems, a PED suspension, awful defense, and poor performance (relative to his expected salary) in 3 out of the 4 years he is just way too risky.
Justifying the QO is easy because you’ll take him back at 15 MM if he accepts for sure, since it’s just a one-year deal, while if he declines which he likely does you get a pick.
bj: If you had to choose for 2015 Orioles – Davis at $12 m. vs Cruz at $15 m. – both for a 1-year deal??
I would take Cruz. More consistent. Proven postseason hitter. Is willing to DH for Buck and thus avoid injuries. Did not jeopardize “our postseason” with bad choices. Lower down-side risk than Davis, while lower upside potential as well.
I wish Cruz could play a decent 1B, and move Pearce back to OF.
I would also take Cruz for 2/33, while 3/45 is my max on him.
I would take Davis.
Between 2012 and 2014 Davis has posted:
254/335/523 … that’s over 1760 PA’s
Cruz has posted over the same time:
266/327/497 … that’s over 1776 PA’s
The big difference is Cruz will be 35 and Davis will be 29. Cruz is probably the “safer” bet but Davis has by far the biggest upside. All things being equal I would bet on a players prime years vs a guy who is on the wrong side of his 30’s.
I could’ve told you this would happen 5 months ago. Even longer than that for Markakis. No way the O’s were ever planning to pay him that. They have lots of guys due raises this year. I would expect Markakis back with the O’s, maybe a 3 year deal worth 8-10MM/year or so.
100% agree. Nick phases into being a role player at an earlier career stage than I would have initially expected. Solid player, but has not lived up to fair expectations, or his previous contract even.
The question is whether he chooses to maximize earnings or loves the Os enough to accept the challenge to lead us back to the Promised Land and secure his reputation?
For Nick, he’s worth $9 m. in today’s market and Os will give him that. Similar to Mussina, except NYY offered FMV and Os would not. Some fans despise Mussina for leaving to take the $$. How will fans feel if Nick leaves Os for an overpay contract? I think they will be ok because his production is more easily replaceable than Mussina’s. (Mussina was consistently ace material for Os, acted reasonably on contracts, but is scapegoated unfairly – blame truly rests with Angelos and his front office for his leaving.)
Mussina was elite, or at least viewed as elite by O’s fans. Markakis never was elite, and never really viewed they way by most O’s fans. I think Nick does have a small, but VERY passionate following amongst O’s fans, but most don’t see him as anything but a guy that had two very good years early in his career, and then quickly settled into being an average player that got paid like a very good player. I don’t think most fans will care that much if/when Markakis leaves.
Interesting but also completely expected. I think Cruz will go for a multiyear deal and the Os get their draft pick back. I hope the Yankees sign him actually as he fits their demographic. He played great this year for the Os, but he’s 35. We’ll take the Yankees’ pick gladly. Mar kakis will resign a multiyear deal with the Os, probably at about 8 million a year… possibly 3 years.
And where do the Yankees play him? Gardner, Ells, Beltran have the OF on lock. Can’t shift Beltran to DH full time, thanks to ARod, other veterans. Does not make sense for the Yanks. They need middle infield and pitching. The OF is a strength already.
So… we’ll gladly keep our pick. Or rather, give it to someone else haha.
One, you don’t “get” the Yankees pick. They simply lose it in the 1st round and the O’s would get a sandwich pick between the 1st and 2nd rounds. Probably somewhere in the low 30s. Two, the Yankees have absolutely no room for him. Between LF/DH/1B they have Gardner, Beltran, Teixiera and Rodriguez and they seem to want to keep Headley and possibly Ichiro who would muddy the water even more.
Texas would not be dissuaded from pursuing Cruz because of the QO since their draft pick is protected. That being said, would Cruz take a 2 yr deal with a 3rd year option to go back to Texas to platoon in the OF with Choice or whoever and be primarily a DH?
Marakis was one of those extensions that did not pan out as expected. 122 OPS+ in his age 22-24 seasons. After the extension he put up an 108 OPS+ in what were supposed to be his peak years at 25-30
Would like to see Markakis at Wrigley next year. Seems like a good fit for what they’re trying to do. Veteran outfielder with good OBP.
Intriguing idea.
I like Markakis, hes a good solid player that is likely to give you 2/2.5 WAR on an average year, but his last couple of seasons, especially 2013, definitely dont justify picking up a $17.5m option.
I do agree with some here though, that he’ll possibly end up back in Baltimore on a mid-range contract, lower AAV, more years, maybe something like 2/24 or 3/33, that could work for both sides, with that said if he does hit Free Agency he will certainly have more than a handful of suitors.
Solid player, interesting case.
Its also a possibility the Orioles will extend him a 4 or 5 year contract. Everybody knows he was recovering from injuries in ’13, and this year he came back and put up a typical Markakis season, solid but nothing spectacular. A 5 year $40-45 million deal would be reasonable if the Orioles want him for the long haul.
AAV ok, too many years. His skillset in years 4-5 heavily declines IMO. He would be a great, but expensive PH and 4th OF.
There’s just no way the O’s give him that many years.
Just a pipe dream, but Markakis would look mighty fine at Fenway Park. I know a lot of talk centers around Boston’s outfield “surplus”, but seriously? Victorino is way too injury-prone, Bradley can’t hit, Castillo hasn’t proven anything yet, etc. Markakis’ defensive skills alone would warrant an attempt.
Markakis had the same fWAR as 39 year old Torii Hunter last year: 2.5 (better defense, worse offense).
His value cannot be over $10MM/AAV can it?
I think the O’s need to do a healthy evaluation of what they need to do this off-season.
I don’t agree with the Markakis analysis, I expect the option to be declined and he gets tagged with a QO. he’s the type of player that would be severely hampered by a QO on the market, and if he accepts he becomes an attractive trade chip and/or the same solid bet to throw up a ton of decent PAs as he’s always been.