The Diamondbacks have reached a deal to acquire starter Jeremy Hellickson from the Rays, the clubs announced. Outfielder Justin Williams and shortstop Andrew Velazquez — both prospects playing in the low minors — constitute the return for Tampa.
The swap represents perhaps the first significant move of the tenure of both principle baseball decisionmakers involved: GM Dave Stewart of the D’backs and president of baseball operations Matt Silverman of Tampa. For Stewart, Hellickson represents the arm (or, perhaps, one of the arms) that he has repeatedly said was the focus of the offseason.
Hellickson is projected by MLBTR/Matt Swartz to earn $3.9MM in his second trip through the arbitration process. He will have one final year of control in 2016 before hitting the open market.
Entering his age-28 campaign, Hellickson has seen his value drop after a rough couple of campaigns. First, there is the fact that Hellickson has pitched to a 5.00 ERA in 237 2/3 innings over 2013-14. Then, there’s the fact that he only threw 63 2/3 of those frames last year, after undergoing an elbow cleanup procedure just before the open of camp.
Hellickson took home the 2011 AL Rookie of the Year award, but did so in spite of ERA estimators that valued him more as a back-of-the-rotation innings eater. That assessment has never really changed; Hellickson has never posted a FIP, xFIP, or SIERA mark below the 4.00 level over a season. Though he averaged a 3.02 ERA over 366 innings in 2011-12, but those marks were propped up by an unsustainable BABIP (.223 and .261, respectively) and the regression came with a vengeance.
That being said, there are, perhaps, some signs of encouragement. Hellickson has seen his strikeout rate rise over each of the last three years. And those very same advanced metrics that predicted a decline after Hellickson’s hot start also look more promising now than they did at the time.
As for Tampa’s end of the deal, the club gets a pair of interesting young players while clearing some payroll space. Both Velazquez (#12) and Williams (#14) rated among the D’backs’ twenty best prospects in the most recent list from MLB.com’s prospect gurus Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo.
Previously a largely marginal prospect, he 20-year-old Velazquez made his name with a record-setting 74-game on-base streak this year, besting the more celebrated run of Mookie Betts. He finished a full season at low-A with a .290/.367/.428 slash to go with nine home runs and an eye-opening 50 stolen bases over 623 trips to bat. MLB.com says that Velazquez has improved his approach and strike zone awareness while delivering plus speed, though his small size and remaining contact issues could limit him moving forward.
Williams, 19, reached low-A ball last year after being taken in the second round of the 2013 draft. The left-handed-hitting youngster continued to put up strong overall numbers last year, but continues to lag in the power department. Over 544 plate appearances as a pro, Williams has swatted only five long balls. Despite the fact that he is said to possess a big power tool, it has yet to show up in game action. Nevertheless, his overall line in the minors — .351/.401/.461 — and solid pedigree led Baseball America to rate him the seventh overall prospect in the Pioneer League this year.
Chris Cotillo of MLBDailyDish.com first reported that a deal was close between the two teams. Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reported on Twitter.that the deal was finalized. Cotillo (via Twitter), Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter), and Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic (via Twitter) each reported elements of the prospect return.
That was quick, these are bad news for the Padres and the rest of the NL West, I think he’ll reestablish himself.
A power hitting OF prospect at least 3 years away seems a little light….The second should be ML ready
These are no ordinary prospects.
haha uh yeah actually they really are pretty ordinary. Raw, untested talent a long ways away from the bigs.
2 players at least 2-3 years away…ouch.
A 19 and 18 year old doing well in A ball. I would say that is a fair return.
How much do you think 2 years of a backend starter is worth?
If the players have good shot making it the deal should be fine.
a lot more than that! Helickson was cheap too. They must have somebody ready to take his spot or his recovery is not going that well. This at surface seems like a huuuuuuge reach
I’m surprised they got two legitimate prospects for Hellickson, 2-3 years from the majors or not.
These cat’s haven’t passed A ball
1. Corbin
2. Hellickson
3. Miley
4 Arroyo
5. Collmenter
Isn’t Arroyo out for TJ Surgery? Doubt he’ll be back that quick….
Both Corbin and Arroyo will be on the DL to start the season. Arroyo is expected back in May, Corbin is expected back in mid-June.
Right now it is looking like:
Miley
Collmenter
Hellickson
Anderson
Cahill/Nuno
I can’t imagine Arroyo being ready as early as May when he had his TJ in July.
I found the thought unlikely as well. But Arroyo and the team are both saying that is when he will be ready. He does have the virtue of being a very soft tosser helping him out. He doesn’t need to recover velocity, only control and endurance.
He still needs to recover his max velocity. Its not like everyone that has TJ throws 85 to start there rehab..
You have it backwards Corbin is expected back late April or Early May. Arroyo late June or after All-star break.
If you are going by stats it would be
1. Corbin
2. Collmenter
3. Miley
4. Hellickson
5. Anderson or Arroyo
Don’t forget Brandon Webb. He’s making a comeback.
Don’t know anything about these two guys but am glad to see Hellickson go. He was just awful the last two seasons. Now, I wonder whether Alex Colome will start until Matt Moore gets back or whether they will put him in the bullpen and sign a journeyman free agent for cheap (Kendrick, Capauano?) like they did with Bedard.
More likely a guy like Karns or Colome, maybe Andriese, get the starts till Moore is ready, then they move to the pen or AAA depending on the pitcher. I expect it’ll be Colome. There probably will be a veteran signing ala Erik Bedard as well though.
So much for the trade involving Gattis, huh?
Now it sounds like Gattis is sticking around as the everyday LF. Under team control for a while and a good bat. I expect Justin Upton or Heyward to go.
They should send him to the DBacks for Randall Delgado, Nick Ahmed, and Zeke Spruill. That sounds like a fair trade to me.
Or to the Yankees for Prado.
Hellickson is probably going to like Arizona more than the trop in st. Pete
I don’t know about that: Hellickson is a serious flyball pitcher going from one of the more pitching friendly parks to a much more hitter-friendly park.
Was this a good trade by the rays
IMO it was. They got a nice haul for a back-end of the rotation guy.
Those rays need to trade Ben zobrist
Well if they plan to contend, they shouldn’t. Zobrist is definitely one of their best position players and probably has the most trade value on the team (other than maybe a couple pitchers). They’d be smart to hold on to him, unless they get overwhelmed. After all, they could flip him at next year’s deadline for a nice haul anyways, no need to do it yet.
Zobrist for Happ from Toronto (and a few of our prospects). Happ was great for the Jays… We have a lot of starting pitching – Happ’s the odd guy out – despite the fact that he had a great year. He’s the most tradeable).
We could use the position flexibility Zobrist brings. Happ’s option was picked up at 6mil – Zobrist at 7.5. This is a move I’d like to see get done…
i’d like him to move towards the Jays….
Depends on what they can get. They could still move him at the trade deadline.
Yeah, considering how poorly Hellickson’s been pitching last 2 years, definitely a good return.
Yankee Stadium, Fenway and whatever they call the park in Toronto are scarier to a flyball hitter than Chase, Petco, and ATT. He should be ok IF and its a big IF, he is healthy.
Toronto’s park : Now it’s called – “Roger’s Centre”. Back in the day it was called “Skydome” (which most of us still call it)
“whatever they call the park in Toronto” ROGERSSKYCENTREDOME! 😉
Some Rays’ fans mightn’t like this deal but, it’s a pretty good one for them. While both of these guys are atleast 2 years away, based on their stats, they look very promising. Plus, they’re young guys who can still establish themselves as top prospects. The most intriguing of the two is Velazquez IMO. He had good numbers at A and, seems to have some very legit speed. I’m sure the Rays’ll be able to use these guys eventually, just not yet. Remember, they’re good at developing players (albeit more so pitchers) so, it’ll be interesting to say the least to watch these guys develop.
Oh, I’m a Rays fan and I actually really like this trade. Granted, I was hoping for Evan Gattis, but whatever, these 2, especially Andrew Velasquez, look like pretty good prospects in their own right.
Yeah I was really hoping (still am) that the Rays were going to pick up Gattis. He would be exactly what they need, a power hitting DH that could also be the backup catcher and they could cut Molina loose.
What do the Rays have to offer that would interest the Braves? I’m not sure what the Braves would want, other than Zobrist, which is like addition by subtraction….
Jennings
Good deal for D-Backs, don’t understand why it is such a low return for the Rays though.
Two high upside ridiculously young prospects for a back end starter? That sounds like the Rays won this trade.
Yeah, I just realized how good williams and velazquez are until I checked my prospect hand book and read their stats I flip my opinion good deal Rays.
The age is really the kicker. Every year below average pretty much doubles a prospects value, and these guys are each about 3 years below average. Very, very young.
You have to think that in every player there is a chance they crash so i never get really excited about high-risk prospects like the. But, look at Gallo he has excelled being high risk so anythings possible.
Man, Gallo is like the 2nd coming of Adam Dunn IMO. Strikes out a lot, gets his fair share of walks and of course, hits home runs.
Yeah, well this second coming can play the field and isn’t as slow as a 100 year old tortoise. Gallo also has shown some plate discipline lately.
Haven’t been checking up on him lately so, I wasn’t really aware. But I definitely agree with you on one part, at least he isn’t as slow as a tortoise. Not sure if scouts are high on his defence at 3rd though, I could see a switch to the corner OF spots making some sense (not for the Rangers though, who’ll need a 3rd basemen when Beltre’s gone so, the switch is unlikely for the time being).
The Rays are glad to have the two prospects they got for Hellickson. It was a pretty nice haul for an average back-end starter.
i repeat my other comment; I didn’t realize.
Yeah, haha. Overall, I think it was a pretty good deal for both sides. It’s probably a bit too early to determine it Velazquez and Williams will pan out but, I’m sure it’s a risk worth taking in the Rays’ mind. As D’backs fans, all you have to worry about is whether Hellickson can keep his homerun rate down (which includes his flyball rate, as he is a flyball pitcher), as well as having the ability to stay healthy. If he can do all that, then he could be a pretty good pitcher for you guys.
I’m a Rangers fan so this doesn’t affect me. So Yay!
I’ve known of Andrew Velazquez since his time with Fordham Prep High School (Bronx NY) and now he’s been traded for Jeremy Hellickson. That’s crazy! Best of luck.
And if he makes it to The Show with the Rays, you can get to see him quite often at Yankee Stadium then.
principle
PRINCIPAL
I swear the fans of sports want to destroy the words principal and dominant.
Don’t know those prospects, but would Hellboy vs Gattis straight up get it done?
Obviously not.
Are you insane Gattis is worth way more. Williams is a high-risk outfielder coming of a great year and velazquez is a young middle infielder.
Kind of like this deal for the Rays. Velazquez is very intriguing being a 19 year old SS that swiped 50 bases last season. Wonder what his defense is like? Either way seems like a good return for Hellickson who has had some very poor results the past couple of seasons.
His defense is good he had a .941% in 127 games so average.
How was his range? How was his arm? How were his hands? Fielding percentage is not the most useful stat at the Minor League level.
Doesn’t have the greatest arm but has great range i believe i watched him at South Bend.
Converted centerfielder apparently, so still learning the position. Should be pretty solid if nothing else when its all said and done.
How many high upside SS prospects do the D-Backs have???
they have some mid talent. They already have Owings starting at ss(no longer a prospect), and they have Gregorius who is great defensively
Owings is better than Gregorius both offensively and defensively. Defensively, Gregorius seems below-average so far despite his MiLB reputation.
Both have question marks really. Hellickson’s injuries are a bit concerning but young controllable pitching is hard to come by. Prospects are young and don’t have too much experience in the minors so it’s tough to tell if they will amount to something in the long run. This is a trade that could go either way for both teams
The most amusing part about this trade is how the DBacks, just a few days ago, claimed they didn’t want a back end starter. I believe that was in response to a few names being thrown around, the Mets Dillon Gee, I think. Gee is certainly a better pitcher than Hellickson, and both are most certainly back end pitchers.
I guess the trade market changes fast so they must have felt they needed one suddenly, wierd.
I don’t know what the asking price for Gee is, but he is so much better than Hellickson. Gee is a 4 starter. Maybe 3rd on a bad staff, if he has a good year. Hellickson is a 5th starter, maybe a long man. I don’t know how he fares out of a bullpen role. But you see what I mean? That’s a big change in value, and to scoff at a guy like Gee in order to make a trade like this?
And I don’t mean to focus on Gee, he’s just an example.
Well i think Gee may have an age advantage and is just better so he will be very sought after but his asking price must be awfully high.
Gee and Hellickson have posted very similar numbers throughout their careers and Hellickson is a year younger and projected to cost $1.2 million less this year. Both have 2 years of control remaining. If Gee’s asking price was higher, the D-Backs made the right choice.
I believe Hellickson. I don’t think Gee is that sought after because he will be reasonably expensive for a #4 starter with an injury history. Anything Sandy trades has a high asking price, judging by the trades that netted him Wheeler, d’Arnaud/Thor, and Black/Herrera.
I agree it may cost more but if you want a good starter it is Gee. Hellickson has had injury problems too.
Is Gee really “so much better?” Below are their career stats.
SP A: 639.2 IP, 3.91 ERA, 4.23 FIP, 4.16 xFIP, 93 ERA+
SP B: 640 IP, 3.78 ERA, 4.36 FIP, 4.38 xFIP, 101 ERA+
Over the last two seasons, Gee has posted a 4.21 FIP and 4.13 xFIP, while Hellickson has a 4.20 FIP and 4.15 xFIP.
Both pitchers have 2 years of control remaining and Hellickson is a year younger and projected to cost $1.2 MM less this season.
If the acquisition cost was vastly different between the two, the D-Backs would have been foolish to go after Gee.
A behind the scenes comment, first, which xFIP are you using? Real xFIP, fangraphs xFIP, xFIPf, xFIPfl, xFIPflp, xFIPl, xFIPhhb, xFIPd?
Because real xFIP, xFIPf, and xFIPfl, favor Gee substantially. fangraphs xFIP, which is different stat, doesn’t like Gee as much. Gee’s xFIPf, which is xFIP including only flyballs, is 3.69. Whereas Gee’s xFIPflp, which includes any ball hit in the air, is 5.02. Just as an example of how radically xFIP changes depending on which version you’re using.
When you quote xFIP, you have to say which xFIP you’re using. They are all very different.
Gee’s true SIERA (not fangraphs SIERA, which is a different stat) is about 4.0, Hellickson’s is about 4.2. I think that’s an honest assessment of the two pitchers.
Niese is also definitely a better pitcher than Hellickson. The difference is the Mets were looking at Owings, not guys in A-ball and lower.
He was on my list of Rays to get rid of but was hoping for a hitter this year
They got 2 hitters.
He means ML ready
oh well in that case no one even close.
-> exactly his point
i realize
Yes but they won’t play this year in the majors
Yeah but if the rays are making these trades next season is not going to be good.
Who knows? They’ve got strong pitching (SP/RP), a strong OF (Jennings/Kiermaier/Zobrist/Myers), and Longoria. If they can get decent offense/defense from C/1B/2B/SS, they’re as competitive as anyone.
A back end starter is not going to net you an MLB ready prospect.
Part of the reason for the trade was the need to open spots on the 40 man roster to protect at least four minor leaguers from the draft. This trade does that since neither prospect has to be placed on the 40 man roster for a while. While it would be nice to add hitting talent to next year’s roster, I don’t think Hellickson was going to get that sort of deal done.
The Rays needed to cut payroll, and open up 40 man roster spots to protect some good prospects from the Rule 5 draft. That’s part of the reason they went with low minors guys. Its a pretty fair swap, 2 high risk prospects and if either pans out I like this move a lot. I will miss HellBoy but the move needed to be made. You got a pretty good one Arizona, but im not sure hes a fit for that ballpark with his flyball tendencies.
How much payroll did they cut with Hellickson?
4 million, which is a lot for them ; Hellickson was their most expensive starter (and their worst).
Really thats pathetic
He is the most expensive, their 5th starter/Long Reliever oh god their in trouble.
They just traded him…
Cobb, Archer, Smyly, Odorizzi not being paid more than 4 million is a plus, not a negative
Yeah but they never shell out money so when they start hitting arbitration then they will be traded and you have to have at least one experienced pitcher
Archer, Moore both on team-friendly deals, not an issue.
Cobb and Smyly will be traded (similar to Price, Shields, etc). Trading good pitchers is what the Rays must do to stay competitive.
Odorizzi on min for 2 more years
Yeah but they cant trade Cobb. He is too good they cant just keep hoping they get pitchers that pan out in return
Garza trade netted Archer
Shields trade netted Odorizzi
Price trade netted Smyly
Get the pattern?
They traded Price. They traded Garza. They traded Shields.
Matt Moore is also cheap and should be back soon.
Just another Kevin To- Wait I thought we got rid of him…
Yeah, whoever is the GM is losing their mind
If the Diamond backs are overpaying this much for pitchers the rangers will gladly send Matt Harrison for Archie Bradley
Not sure how I feel about this. The Dbacks have a lot of backend rotation depth. That still doesn’t help the front end of the rotation. Both Hellickson and Miley need to step up next year
The price was not that high, i think this is gonna be an “Ian Kennedy” type trade. Hellickson just needed another team were he can rebound.
I´m okay with that,
Moving from a pitchers bark to a hitters park though, but also moving from what usually is a strong hitting division to a weak (or Weaker) hitting division.
The NL West is a pretty strong division offensively. The Giants, Rockies and Dodgers all have good offenses.
As Nathan comments, Arizona and Coors are tremendous hitters’ parks and the Dodgers and Giants aren’t exactly weak.
That’s what I said. He’s moving to a hitters park now.
Not sure what the D-backs are trying to accomplish. Hellickson is a soft-tosser who gives up lots of dingers. He’s going to dislike his new environment.
The Snakes didnt give up much to get him and if he rebounds from the elbow surgery, he could provide some value to them at the back of their rotation. Decent pickup with little risk. If he comes back with a 4 ERA and 150+ IP for them it would be a big win.
Good move for Arizona, wow!
Hellinkson may not be the answer for the D-backs pitching woes but he might be. We know Trevir Cahill isn’t. If Hellickson can be solid if not spectacular that will be enough to justify this move. Both minor leaguers are years away if they ever make it to the big leagues. Justin Williams is the one I fear becoming a star. His power will come as his body matures. I’m sad to see him go.
Great pick up by the D Backs
I was initially disappointed with this trade from a Rays perspective, seeing as the return contained nothing close to ML-ready. However, I think it just speaks to the mindset of the new Rays regime: build for the future. These two guys, Williams and Velazquez, have the potential to be very good pieces on a big league club in a few years. So, I think it’s a solid deal for the Rays, and I think we should expect to see a few more like it from them in the coming months. As for Hellickson, I think he could rebound in the NL and be a solid #4 pitcher, so I think it’s an okay deal for the Dbacks, as well.
Fwiw, Velazquez reached in 70 straight games last year.
Hopefully Jeremy won’t have too many problems moving to the National League.
Rays got a nice deal. They got two great upsided players for a starter with a bad season.
Great pickup for the Dbacks! A couple of unproven, raw A leaguers for the 2011 ROY and one of the former top pitching prospects in all of baseball. His stats have been inflated a bit recently but with a healthy arm he looks to be a great bounceback candidate with huge upside. The guys stuff is much better than other pitchers in the AZ rotation so that alone will be a nice upgrade. All of you rays fans who think you just hit the prospect jackpot on 2 A leaguers with average stats, raw abilities, and plenty of years separating both of them from anything resembling a big league uniform, well best of luck to ya.