During a conference call with reporters, Braves president of baseball operations John Hart discussed several aspects of today’s blockbuster trade that saw Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden to go to the Cardinals in exchange for right-handers Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins. It was “very difficult” for the Braves to trade a homegrown product like Heyward, Hart said, yet it was a move the team felt it had to make “to help not only in the short term but also in the long term.”
With Ervin Santana and Aaron Harang in free agency and Brandon Beachy and Kris Medlen both recovering from Tommy John surgery, Atlanta entered the offseason with a clear need for starting pitching. There wasn’t much help coming from the farm, given how Hart described the Braves as “woefully thin [pitching-wise] in our minor league system.” The St. Louis deal, therefore, checked a couple of boxes for the Braves as they were able to add a quality prospect in Jenkins and a young arm who’d experienced some Major League success in Miller. The fact that Miller isn’t eligible for free agency until after the 2018 season made him especially attractive, Hart said.
“Going into this winter we’d lost over 400 innings in our rotation and we didn’t have any players coming up in our system that were ready to provide those types of innings. We really needed two starting pitchers. As we went through the meetings, we went out there with the idea of how do we acquire starters. We sampled the waters, we talked to literally every club out there and weren’t looking for a one-year sort of fix. Shelby Miller was one of the younger pitchers that we had identified as a guy who could step in and help us right now and that we would be able to control for a number of years.”
Miller’s status as a piece for both the present and future gives the Braves “the flexibility to go either way” in deciding if other offseason moves will be geared towards next season’s club or perhaps for a few years down the road.
“We’ll take a good look at our competition in our division, take a good look at our club, take a look at what we can do in free agency to allow us to compete and examine other opportunities that might come our way. I don’t think this trade sets us [in a direction] either way. It provides us with the opportunity to look at everything independently….It certainly gives us some options for 2015 but there’s certainly a big picture in play.”
One of those big-picture questions involves Justin Upton, who (like Heyward) only has one year remaining on his contract before free agency. There has been speculation that Atlanta could look to deal both of its corner outfielders this winter, and while Hart said “there is absolutely a legitimate chance” Upton is a Brave in 2015, he also said there hadn’t been any serious discussion of a contract extension.
“There’s nothing definitive as we look to go forward, obviously. We’re going to continue to explore a lot of avenues with what we do with the ballclub. As we sit here today, there’s certainly a good chance Justin is back with us next year….I’ve had conversations [about an extension] but they have not been anything in depth so it would be unfair for me to comment much on Justin in that regard. We’ll certainly continue to talk with his agent but I don’t really have a definitive answer as of yet.”
Heyward was guaranteed $8.3MM in 2015, so the trade also frees up some salary space. This doesn’t mean the Braves will be in the running for the likes of Max Scherzer or James Shields (“We’re not looking to give up draft picks or financially handcuff this club,” Hart said), yet the extra payroll allows the club to explore both the free agent market and the trade market for further upgrades.
Despite Heyward’s pending free agent status after the 2015 season, the Braves “didn’t go out with the idea that Jason was going to be the guy that we used to get our starting pitching,” and that the club “sorted through a lot of different options before” deciding on this deal. Last winter, Heyward signed a two-year extension that covered his two remaining arbitration-eligible seasons, and this modest contract stood out amidst much longer-term extensions given to Freddie Freeman, Julio Teheran, Andrelton Simmons and Craig Kimbrel.
When I asked Hart if there had been any recent negotiations with Heyward about an extension, Hart gave the impression that there hadn’t been any further talks since last offseason.
“He wanted a two-year deal and wasn’t interested in a long-term extension unless the dollars were maybe beyond where the club certainly wanted to go. We had a strong feeling he was going to go on the market. That’s what he wanted to do. We wanted to protect ourselves and position ourselves better. If we elect, next year, to be one of 30 [teams] that compete for Jason on the market then that’s what we’ll do.”
This time last year, the Braves looked to be set for years to come. What a difference a year makes.
Braves still have a nice young cost-controlled staff shaping up. Teheran, Wood, Miller, Minor, Hale.
Agreed. This was a deal good for both sides, not lopsided in the Cardinals’ favor like so many people seem to think. They really need to lock up the good Upton now though.
I still see Upton/Gattis as trade candidates.
I agree, but with another cost controlled pitcher in hand those two have to bring back a few good young projectable bats. I’m perfectly fine with the semi-rebuild, but without a few bats this team is going o be really hard to watch.
I like what the Braves are doing post-Wren (if I look at it from a non-bias standpoint). So far Hart has added a couple of prospects to our top 10 list, Got 4-years of Shelby Miller who can be a real asset at the Major League level, and added a significant amount of money to the pool.
Looks like a very short re-build phase; hopefully.
That’s why baseball isn’t play on on paper (or bulletin boards).
now who plays rf.
Well, probably Justin Upton. He played right most of his career.
Maybe Gattis in left if he’s not traded. Either way I see Atlanta getting at least one more outfielder.
Dodgers pick up most of his contract and trade Ethier/Crawford to the Braves?
I would like to see ATL trade JUp to Seattle for Austin Jackson and either James Paxton or T. Walker.
Looks like a Gattis/BJ/Justin OF right now.
anyone they wont have to pay.
Justin Upton is moved back unless he gets traded and Gattis plays LF
Makes sense for both sides, though if Tommy John comes calling on Shelby, then not so good for the Braves.
Considering the Braves run on that unfortunately that’s the first thing that came to my mind.
I remember this organization and fans having such high hopes for the present and future of this team… Then after getting trounced by the Dodgers in last years playoffs, it seems everything just started to get worse from there on. I don’t think they should trade J-Up, and should just see how Beachy and Medlen do once they return next season.
I can’t see taking J-Up into the season without a new contract. If they can get that done great, but otherwise we need to find the best available value and move on. As for Beachy and Medlen I have a lot of respect for both players, but as an organization you have to prepare as if you will get absolutely nothing from them.
That makes sense. Would you rather them just trade for assets and maybe try to be contenders after BJ’s contract is gone?
100%. I don’t want us to be counting on Beachy or Medlen at all.
J-Up has too be traded….they don’t want him too walk like Heyward would have…Maybe too the Mets for Noah.S
Doubt an inter-division trade like that happens.
Mets OF is set with the Cuddyer sign. If the mets trade a guy like Syndergard it will be for a SS
Alderson probably won’t trade Syndergaard. Anyway, you can never have too much pitching as Beachy and Medlen proved this year.
Braves have to address that offense. Shelby Miller is a talented young pitcher and might even blossom under McDowell, but I can’t imagine what the Braves were thinking by not requiring a young bat in this deal.
agreed.
I’d have sold my soul to get Heyward in a Mariners uniform, and all it would have cost was probably Taijuan Walker…
Now you could have J-Up for the same price…….
Freeman will block Peterson at 1st.
Peterson’s actually a third baseman, who would have moved to first because Seager was blocking him. The Braves need one of those.
In fairness Peterson isn’t the most likely to stick at third, but considering CJ can’t hit or field I would take the bat.
Which would make Petersen a stop gap and possibly a trade chip down the line if he hits well enough.
Walker and Peterson and I could’ve actually felt good about letting J-Hey go.
I don’t think we’ll be seeing any one of last years outfielders on this team in 2015. While I’d love to sign JUP to a long term deal, I don’t think he’ll sign. I love the idea of having JUP protecting Freeman in the lineup. Would be nice to package BJ with Gattis. Even if the other team only ate half of BJ’s contract I think it would be a win for the Braves.
I think that it’s really interesting that he didn’t rule out signing Heyward as a free agent after next season. Is that actually a legitimate option, speculation on his part, or just lip service?
It’s definitely an option. They may need to cough up a lot of money though.
If this is indeed his strategy, then it could easily turn out to be a brilliant move.
It was my first thought when I saw the trade but honestly Heyward’s number is probably going to have to come down. He’s just not worth more than 18 million annually. TBH if he doesn’t start to hit the way we all know he can, that may even be a stretch for the Braves.
I suppose that they could also employ the same hypothetical strategy with Upton, and then decide which player, if either, is worth the money to sign.
Good question.
Just my gut, but unless he falls flat and we can get him on the cheap I highly doubt it is anything more than lip service.
Yeah, he wanted way too much money.
From what I remember reading was he wanted a contract similar to Freemans but negotiations never got serious.
lip service.
That is an option. They should have a higher payroll next year
Since Braves traded Heyward away instead of extending him, they might as well see what they can get for J-Up, Gattis, Carpenter and Kimbrel.
Heyward was a quality home grown player but I can’t say he was the player that made the Braves contenders in 2015. The Braves have just as good a shot at contending in 2015 with Miller as they did with Heyward.
I have to disagree. If they parlayed that savings into an OF bat a case could definitely be made for that though.
Heyward was a decent hitter who was a good base runner and played very good defense. His bat alone, OPS of .735, shouldn’t be too hard to replace.
Among 55 qualified OF’ers in 2014 Heyward was 11th in fWAR (5.1) but he was 31st in wRC+.
Bat no, glove yes.. He was 5.1 fWAR player last year. Those guys don’t grow on trees. Miller while I see a lot of upside was basically replacement level last year.
Was Heyward more productive than Miller in 2014, yes; but even sabermetric fanatics will admit there are some serious issues with the current defensive metrics and that WAR is not the best stat for analyzing pitchers.
Miller was bottom ten in all qualified pitchers in FIP. He’s a fly ball pitcher and the Braves just greatly hurt their OF defense. This doesn’t seem like a good fit at all.
Miller was bad in 2014. Having your K/9 drop from 8.7 to 6.2 really will kill your FIP. While I don’t think he will totally return to 2012/2013 form, his 90% zone contact rate and 70% out of the zone contact rate should come down a bit. There is reason to believe Miller was the victim of a bit of bad luck in 2014.
Miller needs to find a way to miss bats again. He didn’t lose velocity on any of his pitches so new attack plan might be all he needs.
Miller was terrible in the first half and was very lucky to maintain a respectable ERA. He was better in the second half.
Was looking over a bit more of Miller PITCH/fx data and I see Miller’s cutter, change-up and curve got crushed in 2014, leaving Miller with only 1 good pitch. Miller never had great off-speed pitches but they were considered average in 2012/2013. There is no way to be a good MLB started with only 1 above average pitch.
Yes he’s always been developing his off-speed stuff. His fastball is so good, if he could get another plus pitch consistently, he’ll be fine. I’ve also heard questions about how much help he wants, but I usually don’t read too much into those things.
“even sabermetric fanatics will admit there are some serious issues with the current defensive metrics”
Not that I’ve seen.
BJ read 8/22/14 “Defensive Metrics, Their Flaws, and the
Language of Writers” and 8/17/14 “So Let’s Talk About Alex Gordon” on FG’s.
Not sure I know of a more devoted sabermetric fanatic than Dave and Niel of FG’s.
From year to year judging defense can be hard to read. When a player rates as one of the best defenders in baseball year after year by every metric you can find, it’s a pretty safe bet he’s good at defense.
I was mainly talking about friends of mine who I talk baseball with. I know some people that flat out refuse to admit that WAR/sabermetrics aren’t without flaws, and that Player A > Player B if his WAR is higher, period.
I would consider them beginners into sabermetrics that don’t fully understand their use
We all have our stubborn moments, my self included, but I tend to differ to the people who actually came up with the formulas when discussing the limitations of fWAR.
And I don’t disagree with you. Just sharing why I said what I said. And at the same time, I don’t think sabermetrics are completely useless, but they have to be read the right way and taken with a grain of salt. I look at Heyward and see that his (b-ref) WAR this year should have him in serious discussion as MVP, which is ludicrous. He was greater than or within .2 WAR of 23 of the top 25 finishers in the NL this year, up there with Stanton and McCutchen. He has a great glove and it no doubt saves runs/wins. But does it truly put him at the same level as Cutch, a far superior hitter in every way with a pretty slick glove at a more difficult and valuable position himself, in terms of value?
McCutchen really isn’t a slick glove and has a weak, inaccurate arm. Starling Marte would be the more logical player in CF. Yet McCutchen gets the CF WAR bump.
Which one do you want to use? FIP (4.54),xFIP (4.47), SIERRA (4.60). It doesn’t matter which way you look Miller was very average last year, and the Cards just showed you they thought four years of Miller was less valuable than one of Heyward. No way Atlanta is in as good of shape to win this year after this trade as they were before.
He probably still carries some belief in greater potential based on the love he got as a prospect.
He was only a 5.1 fWAR player if you buy into fielding metrics at the extremes, which many don’t. It’s obvious he’s a very good fielder, but it’s VERY hard to believe any corner outfielder can be that impactful with the glove.
Losing Heyward hurts the lineup and the defense, it’s not really going to matter how well Miller does this year with less runs.
I don’t think the Braves want to go into full rebuild for 2015. Though I’d put money on JUp getting traded. Similar situation to Heyward with the main difference that I seriously doubt the Braves have the money for J-Up.
Atlanta needs pitching and Seattle needs a RH bat. Sounds like a deal might be in the works. Walker for Upton? Maybe Elias and another piece for him?
BJ 😉
Haha doubt it. I should’ve mention Justin.
I was going to say DONE DEAL!!!
Heck we’ll pay the freight on that deal…
I really doubt J-Upton is traded before July. Trading J-Upton and Heyward would send the message that ownership has given up on 2015 and is rebuilding. Given the Braves recent extension frenzy it doesn’t make sense to go into full rebuilding mode.
They locked up key players that are still young and can produce later down the road. Going through a small rebuild will help them. Braves are only getting rid of players with one year left on their deals. Knowing that they probably can’t lock them up in deals after the season.
I don’t see how trading an upcoming free agent for a starting pitcher is sending a bad message. If anything it says “hey we’re trying to manage our assets the best we can”
Unless J-Upton starts doing his best impression of his brother next season he will be in demand at the trade deadline too. The best way to manage their assets is to hold Upton until the deadline at least.
Maybe, but if there’s another Miller to trade for now I think you do it and don’t look back
I’m not sure either of those packages would be enough. Upton is a very competent right handed power hitter with a consistent track record of major league success.
Tijuan Walker is a touted prospect with limited big league experience, some recent injury issues, and a knock for being a high walk pitcher.
I know Buster Olney mentioned it. I’m sure other pieces would be included but Walker would be the center piece. Upton only has one year left but I guess that didn’t stop the Cardinals to acquire Heyward.
Yeah, Walker+ would be a good start.
Walker plus is too much for Upton. If JUp had more than a year left on his deal, sure, but one year of him is NOT worth six years of a premier pitching prospect, let alone adding more pieces.
At the rate pitching prospects don’t pan out, I’m not convinced that’s true.
About 40% of top 20 pitching prospects pan out.
That’s even lower than I was assuming in my head.
About 60% of top 20 position prospects pan out.
Just brainstorming a bit but… how about Upton AND Gattis to the Mariners for a package built around Walker and D.J. Peterson?? Sound somewhat reasonable?
Peterson is just like Adam Jones when it comes to top prospects. I doubt they make that mistake again trading him. Maybe a combination of Walker Hicks Saunders and/or Ackley.
If you’re going to have a rebuilding year, might as well go all in and blow it all up. Get a good haul for Upton and Gattis..
Might as well add Carpenter and Kimbrel to that list.
Yeah I agree, they’d get a big return for Kimbrel but I doubt they’ll part with him. He can anchor the pen after their [hopefully] short rebuild so I’d be fine either way.
With 2014 in the books and 2015 being punted, no sense in keeping the bullpen together.
I wouldn’t say that 2015 is being thrown away. The Braves still have a decent core and might add another arm to the rotation this offseason. They’re not the best looking team on paper, but still have a decent club.
Braves might finish in front of the Phillies still, but not come close to the Nationals and probably not the Marlins either. Building for 2016-17 seasons makes the most sense now.
You never now. As of today their key returning players are: Kimbrel, J. Upton, Freeman, A. Simmons, Wood, Gattis, and you could argue Chris Johnson may be in line for a better year and possibly Minor as well. Top on Shelby Miller to that, and the Braves have a pretty decent team. Still, there is of course time for them to establish their direction (whether it’s a small rebuild, or add some pieces to get better in 2015), but as of today, they aren’t a half-bad looking team. I’m not saying they are a lock to contend for a division title, but I wouldn’t write them off either.
Agreed totally!
I think we all need to keep in mind that what happened today actually happened two years ago. Big money was committed to BJ, and then last year to Simmons, Freeman, Teheran, and Kimbrel. It was highly unlikely that Heyward was going to be around anyway. If BJ and Uggla had worked out, who knows how we’d feel about the trade, but they didn’t. And now Hart has to “right the ship” after Wren’s mistakes.
Went back and did some research after this trade. Does anyone realize how similar Heyward and Jeff Francouer were? We all know how Francouer turned out when he thought he was worth more than the Braves wanted to pay him. I see Heyward turning out the same.
Frenchy didn’t have nearly the plate discipline as Heyward or speed.
Their similarities are somewhat superficial. Heyward had as many walks in his first four seasons as Francoeur had in his entire 10 year MLB career.
Frenchy will have a chance to add to his total in part of Phillies rebuilding this coming season. LOL
Heyward’s walks make him an above average hitter whether the power comes or not.
They literally could not be more different. I can’t even see anything that you would look at as the same, there are no similarities.
Thank goodness the georgia tax payers will be on the line for the braves new stadium. Apparently the braves will do the opposite of the marlins and dump all their expensive players before they move into their brand new tax shelter. Looks like they’re trying to…….tomahawk chop that payroll.
Very solid move for the Braves first and foremost. They free’d up some salary and have addressed a glaring need: starting pitching. With Beachy and Medlen far from guarantee’s and Santana/Harang as FA’s, their strength from 2014 was looking iffy for ’15. Cards did good here too. Bolstered their line-up/outfield defense, and added a decent arm to their pen.
Not wild about it, but I certainly think it has potential to turn out well for Atlanta. You can only get so much for one year of any player plus a good, not amazing reliever. That said, our offense blows chunks, our offensive prospects in the minors blow chunks, and we continue to trade for nothing but pitching. Plus I’m starting to worry that the Braves don’t know the difference between buying low and buying something that’s just broken. Lotta injury concerns in the guys we’ve picked up the past few days. I’m optimistic about Miller at least.
Braves system is very weak at the top which is why the system is graded so poorly. There is some very interesting guys in the lower minors that haven’t made a name for themselves yet but have promise. The system can bounce back.
The Braves seem to have an idea on how to buy low on pitching and buy high on hitting.
The Braves got a 24 year old, number three starter under their control until 2018 and added nearly $10 million to their payroll. They also got another young hard throwing SP prospect. If Heyward doesn’t fall in love with the Cards, and is not swayed by $$$ alone, he could sign with the Braves in 2016. Yoda magic, Hart is working, right before our eyes, he is. His next trick is to rid the Bravos of B.J. Upton without trading Gattis.
Hart needs to come out and say what’s on his mind. This middle of the road stuff is a bad plan. If it is a rebuild, then let’s get at it and see what some of our other pieces are worth. If he wants to win next year, then todays deal made very little sense. Can’t imagine the outfield of Gattis, Upton, and Upton. As much as we rag on BJ for his offense, that combined outfield defense might be even worse than his offense. Anyway, Hart is beginning to look like that squirrel that’s in the middle of the road. He could survive if he would just chose a direction but he doesn’t so he ends up getting ran over. I can support a direction and a plan, but it takes total commitment.
With this statement he is basically saying that he’s not quite sure what direction the Braves will go. The Braves still got a good arm in Miller that can contribute right away and help them win. Sure, losing Heyward hurts. But was he the difference between contending or not? Probably not.
Since Hart joined this organization less than a month ago, he’s going to need some time to really evaluate for himself whether or not this team can really compete with the assets they currently have. Even though this trade hasn’t exactly determined whether or not the Braves will contend next year, this trade has shown that this is most likely one of many moves the Braves will make this off-season.
I hope it is one of the many moves. We are not winning the East next year with Heyward or without. It appears we filled one need with some longevity in the team’s control. That’s reasonable to me if we accompany it with a further commitment to rebuilding. I would rather finish last for two years with the intent of contending for something real in 2017 and beyond instead of 3rd place for the next five years.
I think it’s safe to assume that the #1 priority is fielding a good team in 2017 to open the new stadium. They’re the Atlanta Braves, they’re not going to completely punt 2015 and 2016, but I really think 2017 is all that really matters right now.
I might be a bit overdramatic right now, but I’m punting. Freeman, Simmons, Tehran, and now Miller are going to be here well beyond 2017. Go get the pieces to fill in around them at that point. Young 3b, young outfield, and more young pitching prospects are what we need.