The Cardinals have acquired right fielder Jason Heyward and right-hander Jordan Walden from the Braves in exchange for righty Shelby Miller and pitching prospect Tyrell Jenkins, the teams announced.
A blockbuster in every sense of the word, the Cardinals will acquire one of the game’s most valuable outfielders in Heyward and an excellent setup man in Walden. Heyward just turned 25 in August yet already has five full Major League seasons under his belt. His offensive game hasn’t developed to the superstar level that many had expected, though he still owns a lifetime .262/.351/.429 batting line. His .269/.335/.479 batting line and 27 homers in 2012 give an idea of the power upside that Heyward brings to the table, however.
Where Heyward truly shines, however, is with the glove, as evidenced by career UZR and DRS marks of +74.1 and +97, respectively (UZR/150 pegs him at +17.6). That excellent glove paired with a solid bat has led Heyward to be valued at 4.3 fWAR and 4.9 rWAR per season throughout his career. There’s little doubt that Heyward is an MVP-caliber talent, although to realize that potential he would likely need to return to his 2012 form at the plate while maintaining his stellar defensive work.
Heyward is only under control for one more season and will earn $7.8MM in 2015, but Walden is a bit more of a long-term asset for the Cardinals, as he can be controlled through the 2016 season. Projected to earn $3MM in 2015, the 27-year-old Walden posted a 2.88 ERA with 11.2 K/9, 4.9 BB/9 and a 45.2 percent ground-ball rate for the Braves last season. Armed with a fastball that averages roughly 96 mph, he should give manager Mike Matheny yet another hard-throwing option to pair with the likes of Trevor Rosenthal at the end of the St. Louis bullpen.
In Miller, the Braves have acquired at least four years of control over a high-upside arm that looked to be on the verge of stardom for much of 2013 before a rough finish to the season and a step backwards in 2014. Miller frequented top prospect lists for his entire minor league career after being selected 19th overall in 2009, with Baseball America ranking him as highly as sixth in the game heading into the 2013 campaign. That season, he posted a brilliant 3.06 ERA with 8.8 K/9, 3.0 BB/9 and a 38.4 percent ground-ball rate in 173 1/3 innings. He saw his strikeouts dip late in the season though and was curiously a non-factor in the 2013 playoffs, leading many to speculate that he was either injured or simply out of gas after posting a career-high in innings pitched.
Miller maintained his velocity in 2014, but he displayed some signs of control issues that caused his ERA to jump to 3.74 (while FIP and SIERA pegged him at 4.54 and 4.60, respectively). For one, Miller’s BB/9 rate jumped to 3.6. But looking beyond that, his first-pitch strike rate dropped about two percent, and his opponent contact rate for pitches in the strike zone jumped from 85.6 percent to 90 percent, suggesting that he struggled to command the ball within the zone. Nonetheless, Miller’s upside is sky-high, and the Braves had a clear need in the rotation with both Ervin Santana and Aaron Harang hitting the free agent market. Both Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy are recovering from their second Tommy John surgery, leaving Atlanta with Julio Teheran, Mike Minor and Alex Wood as rotation candidates, perhaps along with swingman David Hale.
Jenkins, 22, isn’t simply a throw-in for the Braves, either. The Cards drafted Jenkins 50th overall in 2010, and the right-hander cracked BA’s Top 100 prospect list following the 2011 season — ranking 94th. Touted for his off-the-charts athleticism, Jenkins has seen his prospect star dim a bit since that time due to shoulder surgery, though he did return midway through 2014 and post a 3.28 ERA in 74 innings in the Class-A Advanced Florida State League. BA ranked him 17th among Cardinals prospects heading into 2014, noting that his fastball sits 93-96 mph when healthy and adding that he features an improved curveball as well.
The trade fills a need for both clubs, although the circumstances in which St. Louis came to have a need for a right fielder are of course tragic. It’s been difficult and felt inappropriate at times to look at the tragic death of Oscar Taveras and his girlfriend through a baseball lens, but many have wondered if is untimely loss would lead the Cardinals to look outside the organization for outfield help. MLBTR’s Charlie Wilmoth noted in his Offseason Outlook for the Cards that such measures could be necessary, and the path that the team has taken will improve the team in 2015, even if the trade is unfortunately linked to tragedy.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
idk what the braves are thinking here.
I like it as a Braves fan. Heyward was good — he’s not as bad as his hater might say — but I don’t think he was long in Atlanta anyway, and his bat just hasn’t come around like we hoped. Getting a young controllable starter is a better return than I expected.
heyward is the best rfer in baseball. atl has lost its mind if thats all they got.
Best rf in baseball? Come on
5.1 war last season, 6.3 two years before. gold gloves, fielding bible award, his bat still has upside, and hes only 25. yea, the case can definitely be made.
We need pitching and offense and we don’t have many valuable assets. JHey, when he signed his 2-year deal to avoid arbitration, was essentially given a 2-year period to prove himself worthy of Freeman-like money, because ATL has in the backend. We WANTED him to have it, but he needed to earn it, and by his offense, he hasn’t. This lineup hasn’t found a spot for him, mostly because Fredi lacks consistency and creativity, but when you factor that in, JHey’s output wasn’t worth what is presumed asking price will be. He’s just not. By getting a young pitcher with a massive upside and another in a similar circumstance that is unproven at the MLB level, we’ve filled a need.
WAR is an overrated statistic.
Agreed. Heyward’s defense is fantastic though. Saving runs is just as important as creating them.
No, WAR is a cumulative stat so it cant be overrated, its the UZR/defensive metric portion of WAR that you have beef with.
Yeah. We should just use wins for pitchers and RBI for hitters. Those are much better.
Exactly. WAR is the MOST overrated statistic in recent history.
Yes it is.
1 year of Heyward vs 4 years of Miller. Many teams do this with guys in walk-years.
Stanton, Braun…now the case has been made… I would take kemp in 2015 over Heyward. Best rf in baseball…haha. Smh. Get outta here with that.
Also teams don’t trade away the best players in the game for Shelby miller. They sign or extend them. Stanton 325 million. Haha
It’s hard to name a better defensive RF. Stanton could be in the argument for overall but not much else.
Argument?! Get outta here. Stanton is 40x better than Heyward.
Not with the glove. Including defense (based on Fangraphs) Stanton was worth one more win above replacement overall. He’s better, but not even twice as good let alone “40x.”
Are you seriously going to try to say that any defensive metric is even close to accurate? After next year you will have some actual defensive measures that are accurate, but UZR and DRS are not even in the ballpark until you get above 450 games played. Even the guys that developed both metrics will tell you that.
he was not using a defensive metric. war is not the same, plus he’s talking about 5 years worth of data.
The Fangraphs measure of defense is of unknown value. I’d say little, but its an emotional – and tedious – subject.
home runs are great, but heyward is the better overall player. atl’s pitching is going to take a hit by missing out on those 32 drs. heyward pretty consistently eliminates xbh better than anyone. shelby miller every 5th day isnt going to make up for that.
And is it today trade/free-agent-signing/waivers/TRANSACTIONS deadline? They could still make significant moves, considering that Justin Upton is in his final contract year.
so?
So, the fact that it appears that Atlanta’s offense has decreased today is irrelevant because there still are 4-5 months to boost the offense for the future. This trade conditions next transactions.
…so that makes i ok to make bad trades?
4 years of Miller plus 6 years of Jenkins for 1 year of Heyward and 2 years of Walden doesn’t seem bad for me. Teheran, Minor, Wood, Miller seems like a pretty solid group of starters to me. And they are all very young.
sure, but 4 yrs of a #3 isn’t really all that special.
Why is he a #3 starter for you? 3.33 ERA, 7.6 K/9, 26 W, 3.3 BB/9 in 69 career starts before turning 24 is pretty special. David Price before turning 24 seemed like a 5th starter guy according to the same standards (4.42 ERA).
That’s actually not all that impressive these days. It’s definitely above average, but it’s not exactly hard to find a pitcher that can put up those numbers anymore. Hard to justify giving up a 5-6 WAR RFer for that.
I wouldn’t say I’m shocked they traded him, just at how little they got back for someone that’s been among the most productive players since he came on the scene. There are only 12 players at ANY position that have been more productive than Heyward has since 2010.
Most productive players? Defensively yes, but ofensively I would totally call him below average.
I’m talking about WAR, which measure contributions on both sides of the ball. So, in terms of playing the game of baseball, there just aren’t very players that are better than Jason Heyward.
Yes, but like in Heyward’s case, his WAR is inflated by his top of the league defense. That is why a player with a great offense and average defense (Trout) or a player with great defense and average offense (Heyward) will always have higher WAR than a slightly above average in both categories. WAR is pretty inaccurate and over-appreciated in my opinion.
and you can’t pretend defense isn’t part of baseball. we’re talking about more than just rbi’s and dingers. all contributions on the field count towards the outcome of the game.
I’d guess that he’s saying the measure of defense is variable and unknown.
ah, but its not. imperfect, yes, but relevant over very large sample sizes. we also can’t pretend that defense is what makes up the bulk of WAR, because it isn’t. it’s a component, but if you’re looking at combined WAR over 5 years, its significant, and worth placing heavy weight on.
Its accuracy over large sample sizes is completely unknown.
not true.
I’m not pretending it is not part of baseball (where did you get that from?) i’m just saying that great defense or offense inflates WAR unfairly. Nevertheless this conversation is useless because Atlanta didn’t have a choice; Heyward was going to test free agency and with very high demands.
You don’t seem to taking into account how expensive “average” starting pitching is. Mediocre SP’s get 8-12 mil per year on the open market. 4 years of Miller at pre-FA price is pretty valuable, especially when you compare that to A) only one year of Heyward and B) Heyward is going to get $200 million as a FA, which we definitely cannot afford.
actually, i really was just hoping they wouldve gotten a position prospect. atl practically grows pitchers on trees it seems, but they never seem to have many bats in the system. they dont like to spend money to keep players most of the time, so it wouldve been nice to see a bat coming over.
honestly, more than anything im just tired of being let down in pretty much every way possible by this team. i dont blame heyward for wanting to test the waters, but man watching players leave and watching the team fail to meet expectations is really getting old.
I totally agree with your 2nd paragraph, it is disappointing that we even have to be constrained into moves like this. I agree that he’s underrated as a player in general, and that his defense matters a lot. A run saved is a run saved, doesn’t matter if it’s in RF or not. (I was hoping they’d just play him in center every day, since he was OK there).
We should be playing him everyday then trying to re-sign him in the offseason, and we might even be doing so were it not for the BJ Upton signing. At least we got rid of the man responsible for that deal.
That said Jon Hart (and most pundits I’ve seen), say that the Braves are strong in the lower minors, but rate poorly in the upper minors P-wise. As terrible as our hitting was last year, we need pitching too.
I do agree that we need some pitching pretty badly.
You mean a pitcher who is only a year removed from a top three finish for rookie of the year? or a few years removed from being one of the top 30 prospects in baseball where almost ever ranking had him classified as a potential front of the rotation starter?
yea, those prospect rankings only mean so much, though, and arms like miller aren’t uncommon anymore. heyward is.
miller’s not a bad player, though. just wish they couldve gotten more.
He is a number 1 if his command reforms.
Bad trade? Let’s be objective here. Will ATL be able to re-sign him? No. So will they contend in 2015? Very unlikely with him. So if it’s presumed that his value drops every game played, we would have needed to get another pitcher we won’t with Miller, and have almost $8MM to reallocate, what’s the problem? Sorry your Heyward jersey is worth nothing, but the team is bigger than any one player, and this benefits the team both now and going forward.
dont have a heyward jersey and the team is actually what i’m worried about, not the player for the players sake.
He is a RF. Its the area of the field the LEAST balls go to. Really, how much is that defense worth? Not enough to make up the difference between his offense and Stanton’s offense. or Bautista’s offense. Or Pence’s offense. Or Puig’s overall game. Sorry. Its not a question about who any GM in the game would want in their OF.
thats not how defensive runs saved works
I’d love to hear your basis for believing that defense in right field has so little value. The last time I looked right fielders field about as many balls as left fielders. And since they have to make the long throw to third base, their arm strength is more critical. Also there is plenty of evidence to suggest that defense is a critical part of understanding a player’s value, even in corner positions. A run is a run whether you prevent it or score it.
Sign Torii Hunter to play RF and you will see how much defense is worth!
That just goes to show you how weak of a player Heyward is. He was traded for freaking Shelby miller! If Heyward was all that guess what, he would be in ATL still since most teams don’t trade away the top players in the game for a Shelby miller
Um, There is that guy in Toronto too…
I’d say Lorenzo Cain is better if he is going to move to RF full time this season.
Bautista? Werth? Pence?
Cruz? Martinez? Calhoun?
Sorry I just read “defensive”. Heyward has a solid glove, but as a overall right fielder? Not even top 10.
What is this crazy talk about valuing defense over offense in the corner OF spots? If that were the case, the Cardinals would have just started Borjous in CF and Jay in RF.
not sure if serious
He’s right. Defense isn’t needed in the corners like it is in center. Heyward is a good player with upside but, several years of Shelby Miller is better than one year of Heyward. Miller has a lot of upside too.
As I responded below, Joey Bats is the only RFer who has accumulated more value than Heyward since ’10.
Yes however, most of it has comes on defence. A Corner OFer who provides excellent hitting skills is better than a glove wizard at that position. A teams needs offence too, as well as pitching. Your prime defensive positions are CF, SS, and C. Everybody else should hit at an above average rate. Not saying Heyward doesn’t, but his value isn’t as high as Bautista’s, or Adam Jones, etc. Like I said, getting a cost-controlled pitcher with great upside, along with another pitching prospect is a good return for a glove wizard, average hitting Heyward, and a erratic middle reliever.
They’re getting Jordan Walden, not a middle reliever… and none of that changes the fact that Heyward is an impact player that got shipped off for a mid-rotation starter.
Quite serious. Corner spots (RF, LF, 1B, 3B) are places where you can sacrifice speed and defense for offense. I don’t think it’s a bad trade per say but the notion that the Cardinals “clearly won” this trade is quite overblown. I very much doubt the Cardinals acquired him for his defensive ability.
Jose Bautista is the only Rfer that has been more valuable than Heyward since his rookie season in 2010… and Bautista is now 34.
Valuable in terms of WAR and those neurotic defensive metrics that assume baseball is played in cyberspace. The fact is Heyward is a slightly above average hitter at best who gets his WAR inflated for catching pop flies. The guy was a .730 OPS hitter last year and in terms of his WAR and the history of the award vs WAR, he should have been a legitimate MVP contender, which is absurd to think about.
You don’t have a very good grasp of WAR. I’m not trying to be rude, but that’s not how it works. There are some good places that show you the internal workings of the stat. It’s not flawless, but over large sample sizes, it’s one of the single most useful stats you can use.
I guess we’ll have to agree to disagree. What I don’t have a very good grasp of is people who take WAR as the end all be all to player value and when anyone challenges it, they just accuse them of not understanding.
Absolutely, WAR is one of the best stats for evaluating a players performance, but it’s not the only stat. Like all stats there are flaws, otherwise Alex Gordon would be asking for 400 million this off season based upon where he compares to Stanton in WAR
never meant to hurt anyone’s feelings, but if someone is going to talk to me about the stat, and they don’t understand what they’re talking about, im not going to lie to them. there’s no point in that. it wouldn’t help anyone.
Thanks for proving what I said to be true.
glad i could make you feel better. sorry you got so upset.
If its incorporating inaccuracies or flaws as you say, then a larger sample size likely won’t lead to increased accuracy.
Stanton is the best Hitting RF in the majors. JHey is the standard for defense in RF, considering RF is where you place your team-worst defender in the NL, typically. Not always of course.
LF is where you typically put your worst defensive outfielder…
DH
wrong league
for now
I support tar and feathering for anyone suggesting DH in the NL.
here here!
Gird your loins man, or I guess warm up the tar bucket and pluck the birds because its coming.
I agree. The NL is the ONLY place where the pitcher bats. On EVERY level, there is a DH. Time to change NL!
And the NL is the only baseball worth watching. Time to change the AL.
I understand. It is hard to change. But progress marches on. The DH has extended many careers and is not going away. It is only a matter of time.
I disagree, only due to the majority of batters being right-handed.
that is not the case, though. google mlb spray charts and filter for all hitters.
Hunter Pence, Stanton…..??!?!?
Nope. Stanton is very, very close, though.
Except for a guy named Stanton and a guy named Puig and a guy named Jose Bautista I would say you might be right. Also have to include a couple of other guys like Werth and Pence. Hey, number 5 or 6 is nothing to sneeze at. Defensively he is the best RF, but that is like saying you are the best backup QB. Most starting CF would be about the best RF in the league. Certainly not the best RF overall.
nope. bats is the only one, actually. stanton and pence are close behind.
Offensively, which includes baserunning, Fangraphs has Heyward rated ninth among qualifying right fielders. So even if the defensive metrics aren’t 100% accurate that’s his floor in terms of ranking. Overall he’s rated fourth based on including UZR defense along with offense. Splitting the difference he’s sixth or seventh. He’s likely to be worth quite a bit more than Miller who pitched like a replacement player last year, but there is the time of team control which is way in the Braves’ favor. If they can fix him they can win the trade. I would still take the Cards’ end on this deal.
nah, Hunter Pence is the best RFer in baseball
he has more rings, at least he can say that.
Thats overstretching it.
Agreed….I’m not sure what the Braves gain from this trade. Miller struggled most of the 2014 season before turning it on in his final 5 September starts. As for Jenkins, Yes, he was a former Top 100 prospect, but his K/9 rate as a starter has plummeted into the low 5’s during his time in Advanced A ball. There must be some serious concerns that Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy may not be 100% when they get back from their respective surgeries. The move will give the Braves a young 2015 rotation of Teheran, Minor, Miller, Beachy, and Medlen.
As for the Cardinals….I love the deal for them. The Cardinals organization is stocked with young talented arms that can easily replace Miller (i.e. Carlos Martinez). Heyward is one of the best defensive OF’ers in baseball with a solid bat capable of adding 5+ wins per season. Also Walden is no traditional throw in, he’s been one of the toughest right handed relievers in baseball over the past two seasons holding opponents to a .186 batting average.
Any starter coming off 2 TJ’s is a major concern as it is rare to have any have the same relative success they did prior to the 2nd. Lots of 1 TJ’s come back, not very many have come back from 2 so pitching was a definite need. 4 years of Miller for a guy that was walking after this year is a better return than a compensation pick and seeing us miss the playoffs again this year.
Nearly 40 pitchers with 2 TJ have come back, most have been relievers to start with. Only 2 have come back to be starters.
Keep in mind Heyward is one year away from FA and he wants 150+ million.
Exactly. Having a constant controlled, young arm with upside for a few, cost controlled years is better than one year of Heyward. If anything, they can now try to extend Upton, and go after a cheap OFer.
The Cardinals have money and Holliday will be off the payroll soon. So this is good timing for them.
I don’t think the Cardinals have much interest in extending Heyward. Holliday is still under contract for two more years plus an option year that has a good chance at being picked up at this point. Heyward is more of a stopgap until either Grichuk or Piscotty is ready to take over RF [or Grichuk takes over CF if Jay walks (pun not intended) after the 2016 season].
Thats a lot of faith to put into those two guys….and I’m not buying it. That was a lot to give up just for a stop gap. They Cards will extend him.
You forgot our best pitcher last year, Alex Wood.
your right….missed him….That makes the move even more puzzling though…..You already had 5 young controllable arms to compete with the Mets and the Nationals younger staffs. But now your team hitting is even weaker than the weak line-up the Mets were rolling out in September games.
Your weak Mets went 15-10 (.600 WP) in September
You can’t rely on Medlen or Beachy coming off their SECOND Tommy John, so we absolutely needed another SP or two, but trading Heyward out of the possible 3 (including Gattis and J. Upton) that would have netted a good MLB ready SP was the least desirable outcome, IMO.
Serious concerns….it’s their 2nd TJ surgery!
If 3.74 ERA is struggling for a 23 year old starter with a power arm, then sign me up for 5 of them.
We love Shelby, but he has been inconsistent. Same as how the Braves have been unhappy with Heyward not achieving full offensive potential.
He’s 23. He’s not been in the league long enough to be considered inconsistent. Watched the same complaints about Rick Porcello in Detroit. Now he’s 26 and he’s looking polished. Most 23 yr olds are still in the minors.
Miller got bailed out a bunch of times…..A 4.54 xFIP is not very good.
A 6.5 K.9 rate vs a 3.6 BB/9 rate too
Expect those ratios to improve now that he’s figured out his curveball. Besides, FIP and xFIP have a major inherent flaw anyway, as they fail to account for ground ball and line drive rates.
You fail to notice why Miller turned it on in late August and September, which was mainly due to an increased use of a much improved curveball. You’re getting a very good young pitcher here. I think this deal could be very good for both sides.
The Braves should just completely blow it up now. With Heyward, you were good enough to contend. You aren’t without him. They might as well sell Justin Upton off as well.
they’ve been trying to
It’s not difficult. The Braves’ aspirations of contention in 2014 were a mirage, and they’re working with an eye on 2017 in the post-Wren era. Miller comes with at least 4 years control, whereas there was zero chance of Heyward re-signing after 2015. It’s a value extraction in a year that’s likely a partial rebuild.
Not too hard to understand. Unless he’s awful this year, Hayward is going to get a huge ton of money this offseason. The Braves don’t have that money and won’t until they move into their new stadium. In exchange, they get two controllable SPs who could really help them rebuild their rotation.
I totally agree with you Tom. I can’t stop shaking my head over this deal. Now don’t get me wrong, Shelby Miller is good but u gotta press the issue to at least try to deal b. J Upton off unless he’s already been dealt off which last I heard he hadn’t
Shelby Miller has outstanding stuff. If he sorts out his control this is a nice deal for Atlanta. I’m not going to pretend giving up Heyward won’t be tough, but this will fix the rotation.
Miller
Medlen
Wood
Teheran
Beachy
so much potential there.
That is nasty if everyone returns to form.
Huge.
WOW. Big trade. Really like this trade for the Cardinals given their pitching depth, ability to develop young pitchers, and the unfortunate loss of Oscar Tavares.
Do they have pitching depth? Seems like they made a lot of moves for starters at the break this year.
It does seem the depth has diminished. Marco Gonzalez and Carlos Martinez are now really important pices as well as someone like Tyler Lyons who will be needed to spot start.
It’s still strong, they can always make a few minor signings as well. I am of the opinion that they should try Carlos Martinez as a starter sooner than later.
I think this pretty much guarantees that will happen this year
Well, unless he’s beaten out by Marco Gonzalez. It’ll be a fun battle to watch in Spring Training.
Still plenty of depth, Miller and Gonzalez are ready to start right now. Cooney probably could as well. Down the line a few years got some more good prospects coming up in Kaminsky and Reyes.
Cards are going to be in the market for a starter now, probably targeting a tier II guy like Liriano or Santana.
I doubt it, cards have Jaime Garcia, Carlos Martinez and Marco Gonzalez all as potential 5th starters.
Garcia cannot and should not be seen as a reliable option. The guy is more than likely finished. His arm has went the way of Mark Mulder.
he’s not he’s 1 of 3 options for the 5th starter
And really there are more than 3 options for 5th starter.
What I am saying is that Garcia isn’t even reliable to be an option at this point. Don’t even anticipate him being ready or healthy for ST.
There best option is to run him out there if he is healthy and if he is let him pitch to gain some value and trade him to open up a spot for Martinez. That’s really their best option with Garcia. Too much money to just have him be a spot starter if he’s healthy
I see him being Mulder part deux. His arm is going to fall off at this point and he wont stay healthy.
Cards will be in the market for a right fielder next year, too.
Grichuk and Piscotty say otherwise. There’s a reason they went with a one year stopgap.
Thats a lot to give up for just a stop gap. They Cards will intend to extend Heyward, otherwise this was a bad trade for the Cards because Grichuk will never be more than a 4th OFer. Piscotty can hit for average, but this isn’t the 1980 Cards, we need power and Piscotty will never have power.
Depends on pitches coming back from injury (Wacha)
Awesome day! Cards get the better end I think.
If Heyward resigns.
I have to assume he will re-sign. St Louis is a good place to play, and apparently Mike Matheny is a player’s manager.
Heyward is a Boras client. He will go thru Free Agency.
Hot Stove is smoking right now. Wow.
should braves like this trade?
no, a starting outfielder and a top bullpen guy for a starter
Probably a mid rotation starter at best. Cards win this trade easily.
A starting OF with only one year left in his contract and zero chances of extension before htiting FA. He also was reported to be asking for a “4th batter” price when he isn’t one. Atlanta got 4 years of Shelby Miller and 6 years of MLB’s 94 prospect in 2012 and 2013. Also, Jenkins had a solid 2014 in A+.
You’re also losing the QO comp pick, which probably make Jenkins at best a wash.
Miller (3 years more after next season) and Jenkins (five years more after next season) > QO comp pick.
What does “4th batter” price mean?
It means that Heyward was asking (according to David O’Brien or Mark Bowman, i don’t remember) for “4th batter money”, like he was a proven power hitter and Braves see him like a 1st batter with average power. They had different visions of his role and potential.
Would have rather had the QO pick then Jenkins…..guys K/9 rate has dipped all the way down to 5.0 in Advanced A. Probably has something to do with the shoulder surgery he just came back from.
Premium pitching prospects should at least be in the 9.0+ range at that level.
You would rather have a QO comp pick than Jenkins AND Miller? P.S: John Smoltz k/9 before being traded to Atlanta was 4.4 and 6.0
No….I said I would rather have the QO then Jenkins. Smoltz is the outlier….not the rule.
Miller is a good strong arm to have but pitching was not the Braves weakness in 2014, making contact with the baseball was. The club already had 5 young controllable arms in their rotation for 2015. If anything I would have traded Heyward for hitting prospects.
The Braves had the 5th worst average in baseball, the 5th worst K rate, and scored the 2nd fewest runs in baseball. Plus there’s no guarantee that they will be able to sign Upton to a contract extension either.
But Atlanta got Miller too instead of the QO, not just Jenkins. Remember Miller is under team control until the end of 2018 season. I agree that Atlanta must boost his offense but remember this trade is just the first, my guess is that they will continue to rebuild the team and specially their offense.
Well you kind of made a case for Jenkins. As you stated he just came back from shoulder surgery. Give him a full year and then we can talk about where his K/9 should be.
If I were you I would, I really feel like Miller turned the corner at the end of the year. Miller was inconsistent for most of the year but he was finally living up to his potential. If it makes you feel better as a Cards fan I feel we gave up too much.
i do like miller what about jenkins?
it keeps not approving my comments. There is a good writeup on Jenkins the other day at stltoday. Jenkins is another guy who has turned the corner. He has number 2 starter potential, drafted in 2010 but has taken forever, he’s finally putting it together. I’d expect him to be in AA this year.
Jenkins about 93-96…probly the best curveball in the cardinals system. Potential No.1 starter. If somebody can fix Miller he could shut down any team
Jenkins was slowed by injuries but is finally healthy and had a really good Arizona Fall League showing…was getting a lot of press here in StL as a result. As a Cards fan…not too big on this deal. IF they somehow extend Heyward it could still end up big on the Braves side if Jenkins hits potential. Always a hard thing to judge until you can use hindsight. 🙂
Agree… As a Braves fan and a Cardinal fan (my wife and location have made them my 2nd team), this is a win-win. Braves needed a young, controllable starter with #2 potential to go with Teheran (#1 potential) and Minor (#2-3 potential). Long time to tell if it will be a win for the Braves regarding Jenkins but this fills an immediate need for STL in right plus the lefty bat. Those that are just casual fans will think it is a steal for the Cardinals as it gives them immediate help versus the long-term help it provides the Braves.
not even close.
This is a robbery
Highway robbery
Given Heyward’s absurd asking price for an extension when he hits free agency and Atlanta’s re-building plans in 2015 and probably 2016, this seems as a good deal. I thought they would receive more, though.
And if you thought Heyward’s asking price was absurd, Upton is going to be in a position to ask for $200M+ …. Not sure what Braves do about OF moving forward.
That is the difference! Upton IS in the position to ask for that money; Heyward is not. I prefer 7 years of Justin Upton with a 20MM$ salary than 7 years of Heyward with a 18 MM$ salary. My guess is that he will get traded too or he will get extended but i’m pretty confident that he won’t start 2015 in Atlanta with only one year left on his contract.
I could see the cards comfortably giving heyward 7 at 18 if that’s what he costs.
I’m the first person to question WAR, but Heyward has accumulated more WAR in 5 years than Justin Upton has in 8 years. Why do you feel Upton is so much better than Heyward?
Because in my opinion Justin Upton is more constant. He is very streaky, i know, but Heyward gets injured a lot and has not reached his potential. He is totally umpredictable, which can be seen with his different stats in each year. One year it looks like he is a 3rd hitter, another year he looks like a 1st hitter. I wanted the Braves to deal Heyward first because it was reported that he wasn’t going to sign an extension before being a FA and his asking price was really high. Even with his great defense, he is not worth that much money.
Perhaps Upton’s year-end numbers are more constant. But he can have a streaky way of getting there. His May and especially June slump really torpedoed the Atlanta season.
I agree! And I would add September too. If they can get a good return from him then great! But between Heyward and Upton i prefer to give an extension to Upton. P.S: Heyward had slumps too in April (205 AVG), June (250) and September (239). He seemed to be streaky as Upton, too.
Very good trade for St. Louis, given the tragic death of Tavares. I could see Heyward being very good in St. Louis.
Young offense is more valuable than pitching atm and Miller is good, but not great. Don’t like this move for ATL. Their fans won’t be happy. Walden is also no slouch.
Young offense that would have been gone next year either way. 4 years of a quality pitcher is a long-term improvement.
Forgot Heyward only had a year left on his deal not 2 when I posted this, still not too fond of the deal. Unless, it signals a large Braves rebuild.
Why large? I think they accepted Miller so they could contend in 2015. This trade has two purposes: short term (Miller) and long term (Jenkins)
Maybe not ‘large’. At this point they know they don’t have the offense to compete in 2015. They made a poor 2014 offense even worse.
Braves pitching was great last year.
I agree, but the offseason lasts 4 more months.
If you’re looking for offense, Heyward isn’t your guy. He’s been very underwhelming the last two years for a guy with his skills and athleticism.
I like this trade. But I really hope the Cardinals can extend Heyward.
I like this trade if Heyward can at least stabilize the slide in his OPS the last two years. His glove alone isn’t worth it; Grichuk would be good enough defensively in RF. Whether Heyward is affordable for 2016 is going to be based on his offensive production, not a GG.
Why? He probably isn’t worth what he’ll be asking, and we’ve got Grichuk and Piscotty ready to take over. Part of what I like about this deal is that it’s only a stopgap that doesn’t block the kids for too long.
And let the offseason begin!!
Woah, today’s moves are blowing my mind. Braves probably could’ve gotten more, but this is HUGE for the Cards.
WOW I didn’t see this coming.
Heyward is one of the most underrated players in the MLB and the Cards got him PLUS an elite reliever in exchange for a fringe prospect and a number 5 starter
Miller might end up being a frontline starter. And his production is equivalent to that of a #3 right now.
You never trade a starting 5 WAR outfielder for a number 3 starter. that is just bad business.
The Braves are banking on Miller developing overtime. Not as outrageous as you think.
Miller regressed quite a bit in 2014. Hopefully the Braves get 2013 Miller or it’s not even close.
Look at his second half stats
I guess you do if that OF is one year from free agency and you can re-sign your other very good OF that is in the same contract position. Bottom line: they need an Upton extension or this is a disaster.
You do when most of his WAR value is defensive, and he’s under contract for only one more year.
yeah, but besides that. you NEVER do. besides that of course.
Miller has never reached 200 innings, at best he’s a #4 back end starter.
To be fair, he’s only pitched two full seasons in the big leagues. Lots of guys (Felix is one) hit their 200 in year three.
that is true. typically, in a pitcher’s development, the ability to consistently go deep into games is one of the last things they get under control.
Number 5 starter? Seriously? Look again.
well he was our number 5 starter, but he has the potential to be a number 2. As a cardinals fan I personally feel we gave up too much. It’s not as bad as you braves fans are making it out to be.
You didn’t give up too much. You gave up too little. Miller’s career WAR is 2.9, last year it was 0.2 in a season where he threw the most amount of innings (183).
At best a #3 pitcher.
you make the mistaken assumption that he’s only as good as he was last year. He’s a guy on the way up. The key with Miller is look how he was pitching at the end of the year. Miller really turned a corner. This was a very good move for the Braves.
As I said, they could have gotten more elsewhere. I mentioned this elsewhere, but maybe the Mariners would have given up Walker for Heyward.
You braves fans have really over valued Heyward. You’re crazy to think the Ms would have given up Walker for 1 year of Heyward. And if they really could have gotten that deal, don’t you think John Hart would have made that trade?
I’m a Braves fan? That’s news to me.
“And if they really could have gotten that deal, don’t you think John Hart would have made that trade?”
Who is to say he even talked to the M’s? Everyone was saying the Rays could have gotten much more for Price than they did, and it’s true. You also apparently don’t know how weak the Mariners are in the OF. I’m sorry but to give up talent, you have to get talent. Walker is unproven, Heyward is not.
I’m not saying it’s a move the M’s would say Yes to but I think they’d consider it.
ok well assumed you were by thinking the braves could get Walker for Heyward.
Underrated how and by whom?
That can’t be the entire package going to Atlanta. If it is there is no way Atlanta wins this deal unless Jenkins turns into an ace.
there has to be more
Granted, small sample size, and young for the league (ish), but I’d have to call Jenkins pretty fringy as a “prospect”. He’s had several years to figure it out and turning 22 this summer in the FSL he struck out 5 guys per 9 in a pitchers’ league.
He’s got the size and draft lineage in his pocket, so it’s not like he can’t develop. But he’s a shoulder shrug at this point.
I agree that it doesn’t look like a “win” for Atlanta, but J-Hey was going to command more than the Braves wanted to pay, so I guess I can see what they were thinking. And Miller isn’t chopped liver.
I’m just very uninspired by the move.
Shelby Miller was baseball america’s number 6 prospect and is only entering his third year. This trade was honestly made on the hope that they can get that top of the rotation potential from Miller. It’s not that bad of a trade considering that the majority of Heyward’s value is his def. and he OPS’d 735 with an OPS+ of 108. Cardinals gave up a potential top of the rotation pitcher for a potential middle of the order bat. Seems like a win-win
So we have Gosselin at Second and…. that one guy in right? You know who im talking about… That one guy
I think tentatively it would be Bethancourt at C, Gattis in LF, and Justin in RF.
That… is not pretty…
Any extension for Heyward? If so then this is a big WIN for STL!
I’m not even a Braves fan but wow Ya could had receive a better package for him.
Wouldnt have guessed that “YankeeFan” wasnt a braves fan. Wierd
I hate defending a Yankee fan, but I think there are a lot of fans (myself included) that like more then just one team. I am a Cubs fan but also follow the Red Sox, Mets, and Rockies closely as well.
The Cardinals decided they haven’t had a lopsided trade in awhile, and wanted to fix that.
Braves, what the hell?
1 more year of Heyward (they weren’t going to resign him) for 4 years of Miller plus getting $6 million off the books to play around in free agency. It’s not as lopsided as you would think.
mid rotation starters arent hard to come by. atl got hosed.
If this was 10 years ago, ATL wins this trade. Hitting is the scarce commodity now. You’re dead right. There are mid-rotation guys available all over the place every year it seems, and if you’re not too picky you can grab one or two and let it shake out. And they don’t cost 5 WAR outfielders.
On the flipside, ATL definitely wasn’t re-signing him to what he thinks he’s getting paid, so I kinda get that.
And we all know how that Cardinals uniform magically unlocks players’ potential and turns them into guys who will take a discount to stay.
In defense of the Braves, you have to get something out of Heyward before he’s gone. He’s a great player but the Braves weren’t going to sign him, this was the right move.
that’s not really a good reason to settle on a bad trade, though.
As much as this is tilted against them, I think I have to agree. How much better are they really going to do than Shelby Miller?
So basically the Yankees could’ve had Heyward also for Phelps is what I see here
Exactly Braves got robbed
Miller>Phelps
Phelps isn’t even close to Miller, guy has never pitched more than 113 innings and has had a consistently lower WHIP and a FIP this past year (and a poor year overall for Miller) that is right in line with Phelps. If Miller performs like 2013 for even 2 of the 4 years, this is a win for the Braves regardless of Jenkins.
For what it’s worth though, Phelps had a 0.7 WAR in 113 innings last year. Miller had a 0.2 WAR in 183 innings. (no typos there, all numbers are accurate), though I’ll say Miller is better still
Come on, Miller > Phelps for sure.
I wanna read a Yankees resign Chase Headley headline! lets go Cash
That’s a fantastic deal for the Cards.
Jason Heyward isn’t that great. .270 AVG with 11 HR 58 RBI/149 Games ’14
One of the, if the not the best, defensive RF in the game.
And extremely good defensive stats. This was a steal for the Cards. Pretty sure they would take those numbers every year if he provides the same defense.
He is a 6 WAR player compared to a 1.5 WAR player in miller. This is highway robbery by the cards.
But the Braves were not likely to afford Heyward long-term. They’re rebuilding and would rather have Miller for several years than Heyward for 2015.
That’s the redeeming factor of this trade for the Braves. They get years of control and the Cards are ready to win now. Cards may be able to afford to extend Heyward, we’ll see there. Heyward’s bat should actually get a bit better playing in St. Louis compared to Atlanta so his value might go up a bit offensively as well.
I think Heyward getting to play with real hitters in STL will magnify his positive offensive traits and minimize the spotty power.
That Cardinals uniform is magic… Sigh…
But don’t you think they could have gotten years of control for a better pitcher? A pitcher who had only a 0.2 WAR in 183 innings?
I honestly think the M’s would have given up Taijun Walker for Heyward, that’s how bad they need offense.
As an M’s fan, I thought about that – Giving up Walker for Heyward. I wonder if they talked to them about it but Jack Z just doesn’t want to trade Walker for anything (and I can’t blame him, he has the talent to be amazing and is very young). We need offense and have the money – so they say – to get it done in FA rather than trade away young cost controlled talent. I think the idea of having Felix, Walker, Paxton and Iwakuma in the same rotation is really hard to not love.
Gotta give up talent to get talent. 5+ WAR players are hard to come by. I agree that rotation is hard not to love, but the Mariners OFers as of now on a scale of 1-10 is probably less than a 1. I would definitely trade My team’s #3 pitcher if it’s in need of a desperate upgrade on offense.
Of course another option is to sign someone on the market but I can’t think of any 5+ WAR OFers as free agents (and I”m probably missing a very easy one)
You must be thinking in terms of not being great in fantasy baseball. Because he’s pretty damn good in real life baseball.
Yep, RBI numbers are without doubt a great way to evaluate a players production…
Those stats ignore everything that makes him a great player — good baserunning, elite defense, very good OBP.
I would have preferred to get upton, but Im ok with this trade
If they’re not going to extend him, then I can see an argument for Upton> Heyward. If the Cardinals hope to offer an extension, it’s not even close Heyward> Upton.
definitely more comfortable giving heyward 7 or 8 years than upton, but I want to see Heyward put up more consistent numbers.
I’m glad you’re ok with this theft.
I think Braves fans are really over valuing heyward, there are lots of concerns about him. He’s basically a platoon player right now.
How so? And I think you guys are overvaluing Shelby Miller.
he had a 422 ops against left handers last year. Great OBP inconsistent pop. I like this move but I have some concerns about it. Which is why it’s probably a good trade, both sides feeling like they traded to much likely means it’s fair.
Not to diminish your points, but its worth noting that the NL Central has few LH starters.
Good point, but with the cards playoffs are pretty much expected. The worry is more for me how will he do in the playoffs when he’s matched up against tough lefty relievers.
Are you familiar with Wins Above Replacement?
Almost completely from his defense. His offense has stagnated.
His oWAR and dWAR were both exactly the same last year at 2.8. His wRC+ was 110. Sounds like above average offense to me.
Of course I am, but I feel that WAR is a bit skewed when it comes to measuring the defense of corner outfielders. Is Alex Gordon really more valubale than Mike Stanton? WAR is a great stat, but it’s not the end all be all in evaluating players.
He’s a 5-6 war OFer…
He’s also 25…
No one with half of a brain is going to platoon someone putting up 5-6 WAR when he hasn’t even hit his prime, yet.
no you don’t platoon him, but you are going to feel the urge to pinch hit for him with those splits.
Well a lot has escalated in the past 5 minutes.
I love that we got shelby Miller he’s going to be great
Terrible for the Braves.
Max to St Louis!
Man 🙁 i wanted Heyward for my Red Sox
I would’ve liked him too but we have to many in the OF and so far no one is buying. Wished we could have traded Cespedes for Miller. I’m a bit upset quite honestly that we haven’t done anything beyond signing Koji.
Dude you have about 300 outfielders.
I wan an OF that can hit and Heyward is medicore ATM.
well he has 84 home runs in five years, plus the best arm in right field in baseball, not more u can ask for
He adds a lot with his defensive value as well
so is this a one time thing or r the braves in a full rebuilding mode?
Welcome to the Braves way. My gosh. What an awful day for Braves fans. Awful day.
Heyward is overrated. Equal trade here.
You might want to look up the word equal. The Cards clearly won this trade.
I am angry and jealous. The Mets should have made this deal for Heyward. They needed a right fielder more than anyone, they had the pitching to give up. Make it happen. Give the Braves Wheeler for Heyward straight up, they can keep Walden.
Ugh. I don’t even care which pitcher it took, as long as it weren’t Harvey, Matz, or Thor. You can have anyone else for Heyward. 🙁
Jim Bowden – “Braves can now put J Upton in RF and Evan Gattis in LF.”
Would be a terrible defensive OF.
When in reality, both of those guys could be on different teams next season.
Exactly, Bowden is hardly all-knowing.
This is why you don’t listen to Jim Bowden. Upton will be moved and it is likely Gattis will be too.
I don’t see how this move makes much sense for Atlanta
we are in full rebuilding mode, hate to say it. this screams everything of a fire sale, sad to see J-Hey go.. but i am honestly lost for words, but heywards extension asking price and th fact he is a FA next year makes this trade possible, even if it is kinda crazy
As a Braves fan, I have to hope Hart knows what he’s doing… He has a great track record. I think the Braves chose to go with Justin Upton. He’s only a year older and proven to be a better hitter and no inury risk.
terrible defender, though. overall, he’s less productive.
Wonder if the Braves saw Stanton’s deal and panicked
No
Heyward getting no where near Stanton money
No. Heyward’s people have told the Braves since last year exactly what they wanted and the Braves knew all along they would not be able to extend him.
As a Braves fan, the ideal situation would have been for Heyward to sign long-term. He made it clear that he wanted to be a free-agent, not be the hometown hero. The Braves had to get someone who could help the rotation long-term, and I think Miller can be that guy.
With that said, the Braves should have gotten more from STL. This is a win for the Cardinals, and now I have to listen to this crap from Cardinal fans…(I live in Arkansas, 3 hrs from STL).
I really really dont like this trade but guess Atlanta will try to keep and extend Justin Upton.
Plus Cardinals will get even stronger. Guess good for them
JayHey was probably going to walk via free agency after next year. This was the Braves way of salvaging him. The other option was trading at the deadline for prospects, but that means prolonging contention. Getting a young controllable ML pitcher helps them in the present and the future
IDK, this trade kind of signals the start of the Braves going into rebuild mode. They can’t expect to get elite prospects for Upton if the best they could get for Heyward is a back of the rotation starter.
Welp, there’s little to no reason to watch the Braves this year. Jason was gone after the 2015 season, and would ask for a ridiculously high long-term contract. 200+ million for a 110 wRC+ player with superb defense isn’t worth it, IMO.
Shelby Miller also won 15 games at 20 y/o. I say this trade is even even though the Cards fans think its highway robbery.
As a cards fan I don’t see it that way. I think Miller turned a corner at the end of the season would have much rather given up Martinez.
Yeah, I’m a Cards fan and I like it. I think we’ve seen the best of Miller.
I actually like this one. The Braves are getting a young controllable pitcher for a guy that (I’m assuming) they weren’t going to be able to resign. The only other logical thing to do was trade him at a deadline for prospects, but I don’t think Braves fans want a long rebuilding process
I realized we might be going the rebuild route, but this is just shocking. I thought he might be traded but not this quickly and for pitching…when we obviously need bats. He is an absolute fan favorite. Color me a really sad Braves fan. The harsh reality of this move will take some time to get over. We’re just so used to winning and flopping in the playoffs, and now we don’t get to do either.
The Braves got robbed, If you are going to make a trade you must sure to get a = value otherwise don’t make the trade.
Don’t me wrong I like J-Hay. My heart went out to him when he took one in the face but I don’t think he is an amazing outfielder.
well sir who would u have preferred?
I was must making a point that I don’t think its a landslide win for the Cards.
He is one of the best outfielders in the games in terms of defense. Only maybe Lagares, Bradley, and Cain are better than him and that’s stretching it.
3 CF’s. Defense may win out in CF but not on the corners, which is where Heyward will play.
5 WAR player in 2014, 6 WAR player in 2012 — not sure what your definition of “amazing” is but he’s pretty darn good.
Jason is going to ask for far too much $$$. Not worth it for a slightly above average hitter with a great glove.
I actually like this trade for the braves.we get two pitchers that could be a top 3 rotation pitcher.we are rebuilding.
If i turned on force trades in a video game, it would still probably block this trade, Cardinals 100% robbed the Braves.
haha so true
Jason is overrated, Braves have enough glove only players.
Shelby Miller is overrated too.
Yes, but Shelby isn’t going to ask for 200+ million
When has Heyward ever asked for $200 million? And if he hasn’t, what makes you think he will? I can see him definitely getting $100 million.
You’re crazy if you don’t think a major market team will offer him that much. Not worth it for a 110 wRC+ hitter
I’m sorry but no team is going to offer Heyward $200+ million. That’s ridiculous. The guy has been an All Star once and has only been on 2 MVP ballots, the highest finishing 28th. A very good player overall but certainly not one of the game’s best. Though I still think this is a great trade for St. Louis.
Career 117 WRC+ is pretty nice for a glove only player. 21 WAR at 25 years old. Yes please.
Not worth 200 million, bro. He also hit around .160 against LH pitching last season.
We will worry about paying him $200MM if somehow that happens.
All that WAR is dWAR, which is highly overrated
His oWAR and dWAR were identical last year at 2.8
Enjoy your one year rental
It’s possible Miller wouldn’t have been one of the top 5 SP on the team, so that is fine.
Yeah, you guys have a deep pitching staff. I’m just happy we got something for Heyward before he inevitably leaves next season. Not like the Braves are going to make any noise in ’15
I was just thinking that, Miller is our number 5 starter right now. He has potential, but he’s still our number 5. It’s a fair deal all around.
Its usually only a one year rental when we decide its a one year rental.
We will. We’ve got plenty of depth to replace Miller in the rotation and two very good OF prospects to take over for Heyward in 2016.
Olney says he likes the deal for both sides
Well, didn’t see this one coming.
I just wonder why the Braves took this deal. This can’t be the best offer they received for him.
Can someone please take John Hart. I am sure his son Tom Hart who happened to be the Braves broadcaster can do a much better job when it comes to making a trade.
Braves rotation looks pretty nice with Miller, Tehran, Wood, Beachy. Its not a bad mobe
lol @ Beachy, that man is a lost cause
and medlen too, so does that mean its a gattis, upton, upton outfield with behancourt at catcher? heard gattis was in trade rumors too
Gattis would be the worst defending outfielder in Baseball.
Offense was their problem in 2014 and they just made it much worse.
I am inspired now! I want CarGo from the Rockies!
Don’t know why you are still so eager to give up young talent for a Coors product who rarely plays 2/3rds a season.
Funny we were just talking about these guys. I guess Mozeliak was waiting for my approval. Haha
Hahaha, yeah I know.
I’m surprised by Braves fans’ reaction to this. They act like Miller is trash. 24 years old with a 3.33 ERA over two seasons. I actually think it was a lot to give up for a rental and a reliever, especially since Heyward hasn’t shown much power.
So much for a slow Monday at MLB offices, huh?
wren would have never made this trade.
Which instantly means this is a good deal.
Wren actually made some outstanding trades.
Which led to all of our playoff series wins.
Cards fans….wait until you have to watch Heyward for a full season. Even his good offensive stats are overblown. Best defensive RF…absolutely. But he has a history of injuries and as Braves fans can attest, is a the PERFECT model of inconsistency. Waaaay too streaky to stay at the top of an order. And he’s going to ask for way too much for an extension. After watching him the past two years, I’m fine with Miller and a prospect. Best of luck to J-Hey, I hope he finally lives up to his potential.
I think his defensive stats are over rated. Yes this year he was good. But years past, well overrated… Loves to dive for all catches…
His offense is still a lot better than what we suffered through in RF last year, and we’re not looking to extend him anyway with our outfield prospects almost ready to take over. If he’s too streaky to bat at the top of the order, he can bat 7th while Carpenter and Wong continue to bat 1st and 2nd.
Big move for the Cardinals and it looks like a STEAL. Shelby Miller never seemed to fall in favor with the team. Heyward rebounded after a poor start to the season and is projected to keep improving next season according to Steamer
Bad choice for braves. And I’m a die hard braves fan.
Eh. Heyward is a very good defender in RF. Gets on base.
But he cant hit Left handed pitching. He is a platoon player and defensive sub
Would you rather us get NOTHING when Jason inevitably leaves in 2016?
We could have got more for him.
Die hard fans usually know the least about what is best for their team.
Yea I’m sure you are an expert an someone is paying you big bucks for your opinions. Highly doubt it. Common sense shud tell you that heyward is a bigger asset than b.j upton
I like this trade as a Nats fan. Braves are diminished.
For 2015, Braves should def be weaker.
Not like they were gonna compete even with him, they are rebuilding. Enjoy it while it lasts, braves will be back on top in nl east soon enough
Glad to hear it. One less team to worry about next year. Looks like Nats, Mets, Marlins competing in the NL East in ’15.
Braves will still always throw out a quality staff. Just don’t see where the offense is coming from.
I don’t see what quality pitching they’ll have. The whole staff is coming off rehab and Shelby Miller isn’t great.
Teheran, Wood, Miller can be a decent young cost-controlled top 3.
So let see the Braves traded away one of the best RF in the game today they also got include Jordan Walden who outstanding and in return the Braves got a OK pitcher and some A pitcher. The Braves should have never made this kind of a trade.
you got 4 years of Miller for one year of Heyward. Miller’s trajectory is on the way up, he really turned the corner at the end of the year. You’re getting a good pitcher. And Jenkins has a lot of potential. It’s not a bad deal.
Hayward just for his defense the Braves should have got Miller and a bat for him.
not for 1 year of him.
The Cards have money to sign him to a long-turn deal.
yep and if he’s a fit they will. But you can’t get more prospects because of that.
Jenkins is a potential No.1 starter. Electic stuff and one of the best curveballs in the minors. Miller has the potential to be very good for the Braves especially given his new start in Atl
Good trade for the Braves and Cards both ways. Do yall think the braves would make a move to hurt the team??? If any team makes a move its because they think it will be better for the team. Not because theyre fans dont like it.
I don’t think it is a robbery for anyone. Cards get 1 year of a defensive first, bat challenged right fielder. They will get the most value in 2015 barring injury, but Miller could be steady for many years to come in the Braves rotation. Braves know they can’t sign him to an extension, so get a young controllable player now, it’s not like they are going to set the world on fire with their team next year, led by the underachieving Upton brothers…… This is about 2016 and beyond, not 2015.
The thing is the Braves also gave up Jordan Walden. As a Braves fan this is the kind of a trade you ask why make a trade that you don’t get a good = value in return.
if Miller can produce 1/5-2 War per season over the next 4 years, that should be more valuable than 1 year of Heyward and a few of Walden. You also get a high ceiling prospect in return. 2015 Braves are worse off, but 2015-2020 Braves are better because of this deal. Braves would not be good in 2015 with Heyward anyway. Might as well trade J upton now as well.
Miller at best he is a number 3 starers. What upset me is that you give up Heyward and Walden and you don’t get a great bat in return.
typo 1.5-2.0 War
If you ever watched him as often as a braves fan you’ll know he’s peaked offensively. He will never fix his bouncing hands and chasing balls away. Good deal for both teams as we weren’t going to resign him anyways.
Usually is Heyward doing the robbing.
braves couldn’t get more? find that hard to believe
I think Heyward is a good defensive outfielder but I don’t like the offensive power production and what kind of contract is he going to have nearing his prime? I like the Braves rotation better going forward. They are 5 deep.
this also means Andrew Miller will not be a Cardinal as they have a new set up man.
he was never going to be a cardinal. He’s going to get overpaid, and that’s not Mozeilak’s style. I bet the cards go after Zack Duke.
more than likely not, but this seals the deal.
Did John Hart have a bad weekend? This doesn’t look good.
Great deal for the Braves. They didn’t show much interest in signing Heyward past this year, and now they get two guys for 4+ years of control AND could sign Heyward back if they want.
If the Cards sign him long-term this will be a great deal for them. Otherwise, they lost 10 total years of control from Miller and Jenkins.
I wouldn’t want Heyward for a long term contract.
Cards have a good track record of doing that. If heyward is a fit, they have the money to extend him. plus he’s 25, you can comfortably give him an 8 year deal. The dollars is the question.
Braves did say they wouldn’t contend next year..start of the rebuilding phase
Not good! (head shaking in disagreement)
I love this trade. I think my Cards got the WAY better end of this but at the same time this is not a bad deal for the Braves. They needed to get something for Heyward and Jenkins has impressed in the AFL and throughout the minors. He’s a solid solid piece especially with the great pitching development that goes on there in ATL. Probably not as high of ceiling as Teheran but could be a similar pitcher. Shelby Miller is still 24. He could still be an ace. I love Shelby and in the second half I finally had some confidence that he’s gonna put it together. At absolute worst Miller is a solid #4 or #5 starter, but I think it’s much more likely he can be a #1 or #2 quality. Gonna miss both of those guys but I always admired Heyward and Walden. Really Really excited about this trade!
If it’s only a 1 year rental, will you still be excited this time next year? He’s almost surely going to FA now.
Even if it is, which i don’t think it will be, if gives us a great shot at a WS this year, and gives time for Piscotty and Grichuk to develop. There’s very little risk in what we gave up. We have soooo much pitching
Hope you guys can get him more consistent at the plate, and his power returns. Otherwise he’s a very good defensive outfielder with an average bat.
Win now VS. Win later. Good trade for both teams. Cards get the best player in the trade but the Braves get a controllable young starter that won 15 games at 20 years old and is getting better. The Braves also shred about $10 million dollars. Next up will be an extension for Upton or he will be moved too. Braves looking at 2017.
Seems like a fair trade for all parties. Just wish it wasn’t the Cards, but it’ll be fun watching him in the central now
It was two strikes to the gut for the Cubs and Pirates too cuz Russell Martin just signed by the Blue Jays. I wouldn’t thanking God right now if I didn’t really respect and fear what both of those clubs are putting together. The Central is gonna be phenomenal next year….
Shelby Miller is a solid piece for the Braves and will help the rotation (Teheran, Wood, Miller solid core), but no position prospects coming back?
I don’t see how the Braves make this deal. Are they about to sign an FA OF and just had to get rid of Heyward?
They likely know Heyward is going to test FA, and got a solid cost controlled pitcher in return.
Hayward cant hit left-handed pitching, he really needs to platoon
Yeah, he’s pretty poor (81 wRC+ career), but as a lefty he’s the strong side of the platoon and a very good defender. Seems like that skillset is undervalued as the M’s want to trade a guy with similar features in Saunders. Y’all can have him for Evan Gattis, I bet.
The stats suggest Miller’s upside might actually be no better than average. He might be a fifth starter/long reliever. I would rather have the year of Heyward plus the compensation pick.
Wow. Cardinals killed this trade. Good for my Marlins and the NL East
im too excited that something else exciting may happen, dont wanna end my lunch break haha
This isn’t a landslide win for the Cardinals. Heyward is an average at best hitter and he is 25. He is going to magically figure it out? Defensive stats are overrated. I’ll take a guy that hits bombs over a 20-time gold glove winner.
there arent many of those available sir
117 WRC+ is not an average hitter.
how much money does this save us for this year?
I think the Braves are going to regret this deal in the years to come. Heyward is still 2 years from his prime age 27-31 years. I think he is going to explode in St Louis.
He’ll be a free agent in ’16…
I don’t think he’ll see free agency. He’s going to tap into his potential in StL, and they’ll lock him up.
They gotta compete with the Yankees and Red Sox who desperately want Jason. GL with that.
Unless he doesn’t hit Free-Agency. It’s possible that before the trade was completed Mozeliak got a feel for what an extension would cost.
cards have the money to compete with anyone for an extension but I think they wait and see how he fits with the team.
but but but... St Louis just received an extra draft pick for being a small market club...Yes! Everyone here knows this is our favorite topic. So glad you brought it up, somehow it hasn’t been mentioned in the last 2 articles that were Cardinal related.
You can say what you want, but it is still absolutely ridiculous the Cardinals get a “competitive balance” pick every year.
I know. I don’t know how they would ever survive without the one pick they’ve received in it so far.
And the Pirates didn’t… gotta love MLB’s concept of parity.
If he wouldn’t sigh an extension (rejected twice) with his home team, he isn’t going to sign one with the Cards. The man isn’t stupid, and wants to get paid.
Trust me, as someone that has been watching Jason since his minor league days, he isn’t worth his future asking price.
All the potential in the world, but has never lived up to it.
I agree he hasn’t lived up to this potential, but this reeks of the Cardinals falling up by replacing Oscar Taveras with Heyward. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if he puts it all together for StL.
I wouldn’t either, we’ve had some garbage hitting coaches the last 5 years. I can only see him improving as a Cardinal, but still don’t think he will ever be worth 200+ million
It’s a 1 year rental for the Cards, unless they throw stupid money at him.
Can someone explain what the braves see in tyrell jenkins?
He just had a very good stint in the AFL. The stuff is good. Command, durability, and health is the question.
Jenkins could end up being the best player in this deal. He was drafted in 2010 always seen as having the upside of a 1 or 2 starter, but he was very raw. Had some injuries that set him back, but he’s finally putting it together. If you go to stltoday there’s a very good article on Jenkins that was written just yesterday.
Shelby Miller’s unluckiness continues.Hitters have more value than a pitcher. All I can say as a Met fan Heyward was a great ballplayer to watch even at the expense of the Mets. This trade came out of nowhere I wonder who called who on this one.
Interesting trade. Seems like the Cards lineup is a little too much left handed now.
How are the Braves going to go about improving their offense, which was their undoing in 2014? Just sent away a key cog, who may or may not have re-signed.
are they trying to model themselves after the royals?
Clearly rebuilding
The offseason is finally starting to heat up!!!
I remember when we obtained Ray King, Jason Marquis, and Wainwright for J.d. Drew and Eli Marrero. Braves are hoping Jenkins and Miler both being consistent starters and worth taking a chance on their high ceilings. The Cardinals are grabbing a gold glover Right fielder with some pop. Carpenter, Heyward, Holiday, Adams, Peralta, Molina, Jay/Grichuk, Wong, Pitcher. Seems like a fun lineup for next year.
I was just thinking about that trade, I could see how this could be the reverse where we end up regretting giving up Jenkins the way the Braves gave up Wainwright.
Still Believe Justin Upton will be traded too. Or he will be signed to an extension soon. Given the circumstances of what this trade says to me, Justin Upton will be traded as well.
feel gattis will go before upton, id hold on to upton tho
I hope they hold on to both to be quite frank. Upton and Gattis keep thump in the lineup. Freeman and Upton is quite a solid 3-4 punch, regardless of the pitcher, you have to give more mental effort in their AB’s.
Hope they get some position players in return for JUpton.
I posted the other day that I believed we would trade them both, one for pitching prospects and the other for a near ready outfield prospect. I hate the thought of a whole-sale rebuild. But honestly it may be the best route, you can try to push a square through a circle hole and it will never work, The lifelong fan is sadden, but the logical fans understands completely.
Interesting….I’m not sure what the Braves gain from this trade. Miller struggled most of the 2014 season before turning it on in his final 5 September starts against inferior teams. As for Jenkins, Yes, he was a former Top 100 prospect, but his K/9 rate as a starter has plummeted into the low 5’s during his time in Advanced A ball. There must be some serious concerns that Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy may not be 100% when they get back from their respective surgeries. The move will give the Braves a young 2015 rotation of Teheran, Minor, Miller, Beachy, and Medlen.
As for the Cardinals….I love the deal for them. The Cardinals organization is stocked with young talented arms that can easily replace Miller (i.e. Carlos Martinez). Heyward is one of the best defensive OF’ers in baseball with a solid bat capable of adding 5+ wins per season. Also Walden is no traditional throw in, he’s been one of the toughest right handed relievers in baseball over the past two seasons holding opponents to a .186 batting average.
Coming from a Cards fan, I really like Heyward a lot, and am glad to see him with the club. That said, I will be sad to see Shelby leave. Miller is still very young, and as someone who rarely misses an inning of Cardinal baseball, I think Shelby was really starting to figure some things out toward the latter part of 2014. I think the Braves may be getting a guy who is just starting to come into his own.
I like La Stella for Vizcaino better than Heyward for Miller.
The braves r probably going to trade Justin Upton now since they trade heyward to st Louis
Cardnals get better on defense but offensively, Jason Heyward has a lot to prove! Braves are clearly building for contention later on down the road when they open their new ballpark! If heyward picks it up with the bat and signs for longer than one year at a reasonable contract then this is great deal for St. Louis. If he leaves after this seson then the braves absolutely win this trade by grabbing two young controllable players, one with tremendous upside!
Bring Scherzer back home now Mo!!! I highly doubt it would happen, but it would be exciting hahaha
Miller is league minimum. Braves save $9.5M in 2015 with this trade, allowing more room for other assets to be brought in. Hart is not done yet. Maybe Andrus will be a Brave again. Need to replace the hole on the right side of the infield left by LaStella to the Cubs.
Andrus would be a real waste at 2B.
As a second baseman, him and Simmons would be the best infield combo since Alan Trammel and Lou Whitaker! But y’all are right. The offense would be a downside to spend the open money on.
If you want Andrus, come get him. Seriously.
Only for this year. He hits arbitration next off-season and will get expensive fast.
I love the deal being a Cubs fan. The Cardinals are getting a defense first OF for a decent pitcher. Defense isn’t going to matter when Bryant, Soler, Rizzo, Baez are all hitting bombs off of St. Louis :p
fly ball hitting team meets excellent defensive outfielder
wow, Good job Cards!
Come on Braves could you at least trade him to the American League???
As been pointed out they saved 9.5 million on this and there is still work to do yet.
Upton and Kembrel are next. Should both bring back solid returns. Too bad there is no moving BJ.
If you’re rebuilding for 2017 then you should definitely trade Kimbrel. The live of relievers is short lived. Who knows what Kimbrel will be by then. Go get the Dodgers to overpay for him.
A bit risky for the Cards if they intend to resign J Hey. Watching him in the past in the NLE, his value is derived from his defense. No signs of his offense improving in recent years.
They have pitching to fill in, I guess though.
Braves got fleeced in this one
One year of control. Braves cleared up some money to make another move, and were obviously persuaded Heyward was going for the big bucks next off-season.
Big fan of Heyward, and like the trade. I am a little concerned that the Cardinals are becoming a bit too Left Handed, but overall, this deal gets a “thumbs up” from me.
I like the deal for the Braves
You must not be a Braves fan then. As a Braves fan I hate this trade for so many reason.
so all braves fans have to agree?
This off season will make the Braves worse in 2015 likely. They will probably be a better team the latter part of the decade as a result of it though.
I like it because of the years you get out of Shelby Miller, a pretty good starter right now, with a chance to be a great one later.
Jason Heyward only has 1 more year on his deal…
very shocked the Braves dealt Heyward.
Good replacement for Taveras for STL
They wouldn’t take B.J. as a stow-away?
I don’t think they’d have taken BJ if ATL ate all but $1 per year.
Yes, but one can dream…
Great job Cards you got one of the best defended in the game today and you also get one of the best set up man in baseball today. In return you gave up an OK young pitcher and not your top 10 prospect.
And Cards fans, Walden’s stats look good on paper – but dude will have you pulling your hair out – and he gets injured every year; bank on it.
Now the braves can probably trade Justin Upton now
I can see Justin regressing big time in the next couple of years. The man swings at more pitches outside of the strike zone than anyone in the league. His defense is pretty bad as well, and will only get worse.
Will Upton be traded this off-season
highly likely
How much would it cost in prospects is the question. If JUp is available, no doubt JD will be interested.
If Heyward was, definitely.
Unless you mean BJ, then probably not.
As a braves fan, I hope he’s next, along with his brother and cj
Will Upton be traded jury
Reaction from a friend who is not a Cards fan or Stl sports fan:
“After the Rams beat the Broncos yesterday, I have decided I know nothing about sports. But I would guess that the trade will work out perfect for the Cardinals cause no matter what they’ll end up in the NLCS.”
I understand trading J-Hey, but man, the Braves sold for like 30 cents on the dollar here. Terrible value for a premier player.
One year of control. One year of control. One year of control.
Exactly, people seem to forget this.
And that’s why I said I understand trading him. It’s still terrible value, this guy could easily net two top prospects. Instead they got a fringe prospect and a pitcher who will likely never amount to his potential and could easily self-implode.
Braves also gave away a quality set up guy.
Yep, that too.
And Jenkins is no longer a top 100 prospect.
Jenkins took a longtime to develop but he has a lot of potential. He had a good AFL season don’t be surprised to see him back on top 100 lists.
Wasn’t Walden non-tendered once before because he got too expensive. Atlanta was just shedding salary. Not saying he’s not a decent pitcher, just saying he’s not a bargain.
A top 100 in all of MLB is not a “fringe” prospect.
In many cases though, guys ranked 50-100 in those lists still don’t pan out.
No doubt, but many top 10 prospects don’t either. It’s the prospect lottery. So many “can’t miss” prospects miss.
He isn’t top 100 anymore. He’s now a former top prospect battling back from shoulder surgery.
6 WAR player (Heyward) for one year was traded for a 1.5 WAR player (Miller) for four years – 6 WAR altogether. Pretty equal in that regard.
Depends on how much you value dWAR
Also costs of each WAR. Heyward will cost less than Miller toward FA.
One 6 WAR season is much more valuable that four 1.5 WAR seasons.
Miller is only 23. I doubt he will remain a 1.5 WAR player. He will probably show more improvement in the next 3 years than the 25 yr old.
I hear you man but you have to wonder what everyone else was offering. One year rental isn’t worth as much. It’ll be interesting to see what Cespedes is worth when/if the Red Sox trade him.
True. If this is the market for a premier RF, then I think the Sox hold onto Cespedes.
Keep in mind, it is the market FOR ONE YEAR of a premier RF.
Unfortunetly, this may be a direct result of losing Tavares. 🙁
It is very unfortunate what happened to Tavares, but from a baseball viewpoint, I believe that a healthy Wacha can make up for the trading of Miller for Heyward.
Looks like ATL is phoning it in until that new stadium is built. If that’s the decision then fine, but don’t you dare stop now. If its going to be a fire sell lets clean house.
Wish list for rest of offseason for braves: trade gattis, both Uptons, and cj. Package the good with the bad I.e. Upton bros together, gattis and cj. Sign headley. Resign harang as innings eater with hope of flipping him mid season. In short, rebuild for 2017.
For all the Braves fans complaining about the haul they got. Derrick Goold the beat reporter for the cards said he felt the price for Heyward was pretty steep.
When you trade a 25 year old top 3 defensive outfielder the other team is supposed to feel fleeced.
1.Marp
2.Heyward
3.Holliday
4.Adams
5.Peralta
6.Molina
7.Wong
8.Jay
9.P
Waino, Lynn, Wacha, Lackey, Martinez
Rosenthal at closer, Walden at set up
I love it
I love the OBP at the top of the order, look for holliday to have a ton of RBIs. Concerned we’re a little vulnerable to left handers, hopefully the cards will teach Heyward how to read Kershaw’s tipped pitches.
I wouldn’t mind seeing Grichuk or Piscotty spell Heyward against lefties everyonce in a while either. Marp will have to teach Heyward about Kershaw haha
Not Impressed. Cubs 2015-16
1. Alcantra/Almora CF
2. Russell 3B
3. Bryant LF
4. Rizzo 1B
5. Baez 2nd
6. Castro SS
7. Soler RF
8. Castillo C
9. P
Lester (most likely), Arrieta, Wood, Hendircks, Dubront/Turner
three of those guys have done nothing yet in MLB. Not counting Baez, who just struck out in half of his ab’s in a large sample.
Lots of those guys have potential, but a bird in the hand is worth two in a bush. Don’t be surprised if not all of those guys live up to expectations except bryant.
Really? You think ALL of the them are going to be busts? And Rizzo was 2nd in the NL in HR. Keeping hoping because the Central will be the Cubs for the next decade.
well how do we know that they wont? u cant just wish they will be, a lineup of young guys will struggle against experienced pitchers. why u ask? not many young athletes are patient at the plate aka harper and puig, veteran pitchers will have a field day
You are plugging all of them in like they are all sure things. Against a Cards lineup that has a proven MLB track record ( not a Cards fan btw).
Did you read what I said? I said don’t be surprised if not all of those guys live up to expectations. Cubs have been saying wait until next year for a 100 plus years. Don’t get me wrong I like what theo has done, but there is no way that the cubs live up to the hype they are getting. I look forward to the upcoming battles over the next 5 years, but i’m hardly ready to concede the central.
Alcantara was mediocre at best when he came up, Almora has done nothing, Bryant has proved nothing, Russell has proved nothing, Rizzo is good, Baez will K 200+ times and was HORRIBLE last year, Castro will likely be traded, Soler was good, Castillo sucks, Lester will likely be in Boston before Chicago, Arrieta has had one good year, and the rest of your pitching has done nothing, so keep talking
not impressed
Don’t count your chicken before they hatch. That’s all I have to say lol. I hate to say it I think Lester is going back to Boston, and I had Lester going to the cubs on the Free agent predictor :/
Interesting Shelby Miller fact, the cardinals in the 2009 draft planned on drafting Mike Trout. But then when Shelby Miller fell to 19 they felt they had to grab him because they saw no chance he would fall all the way to 19.
Idk man, i thought Heyward would cost more and Im jealous of the Cards by acquiring him, plus a Set Up
Initial reaction is that the Cardinals won this trade. The more I think about it, I think whoever wins this trade depends on what happens with Heyward. Short term this makes the Cardinals better. Long term (especially if Heyward doesn’t sign), this could swing more towards the Braves side. Will be interesting to see how this plays out
Trading a talented outfielder for a pitcher with upside? What a Brave move.
As a Nats fan, I’m not sure how to feel about this trade between two of the team’s recent tormentors. But it appears the Braves are eyeing 2017 and Cobb County in lieu of contending the next two seasons. At first glance, this swap is a win for the Cardinals.
This trade makes a ton of sense to me.
Atlanta was not going to extend Justin Upton AND Jason Heyward. They essentially traded one year of Heyward and a for a middle-of-the-rotation starter and an ok prospect.
The cardinals probably felt Piscotty/Grichuk were not ready to take over in right field for 162 games and so they needed a right fielder. They traded a rotation piece BUT got a fire-arm reliever which enables them to move Martinez to the rotation. If they sign another rotation piece (Hammel/Peavy/…) they are set for 2015.
Red Sox you blew your chance
Red sox already got Kelly 🙂
Both Kelly and Miller gone from St. Louis, wonder if anyone saw that happening
Heyward was good defensively but he just doesn’t fit what the Braves are looking for on Offense. I like the move, simply to free up some cap and go ahead and speed up the process, as we all knew the Braves wouldn’t have been able to retain Heyward
Not bad Braves. Never been a fan of Shelby Miller though. But he can be cost-controlled.
This has to mean that the Cardinals are going after one of the bigger pitching free agents like Max Scherzer. There has to be some mutual liking between the two sides. (Scherzer being one of the best pitchers in baseball and the fact that Scherzer grew up a Cards fan in Missouri.) Almost a match made in baseball heaven. Sigh.
Or they bring up another kid (like they always seem to do) and use the money to attempt to resign Heyward long-term.