In 2013, Travis Wood was a bright spot on a miserable Cubs team, posting a 3.11 ERA over 200 innings. That led to a $3.9MM payout in his first year of arbitration eligibility in 2014. A year later, he’s coming off a 5.03 ERA season, and he could be a non-tender candidate. So what changed?
Actually, not much. Or, at least, not much Wood could have controlled. In 2013, Wood’s xFIP was 4.50. In 2014, it was 4.51. By far the most important cause of his two-run jump in ERA was a 72-point increase in his batting average on balls in play, from .248 to .320. Wood walked batters at a significantly higher rate (4.0 BB/9 vs. 3.0) in 2014, but he struck out more of them, too, and slightly increased his ground ball percentage, although he remained a fly ball pitcher. His command was worse, but not so much so that it represented a fundamental change. Perhaps the biggest difference between the two seasons was Wood’s cut fastball, which was lost a mile an hour in velocity and was far less effective in 2014. In general, though, the best way to explain the difference between the two seasons is that Wood wasn’t nearly as good as his 2013 ERA, nor as bad as his ERA last year.
Wood’s team has changed as well. Even if Wood hadn’t had a strong-looking 2013 season, he would have had utility on the 2014 Cubs, which looked poised to unload veteran starters like Jeff Samardzija, Jason Hammel and (if he had pitched well) Edwin Jackson. Having an innings eater like Wood makes sense when facing that kind of upheaval, and if Wood had somehow repeated his 2013 performance, he would have had trade value himself.
2015 is different. Jake Arrieta emerged during the 2014 season as a top young starter, and Kyle Hendricks and Tsuyoshi Wada had unexpectedly strong seasons as well. The Cubs are likely to continue to give chances to Jacob Turner, and Jackson is also still under contract. There’s also Eric Jokisch, Felix Doubront and Dan Straily as potential rotation candidates. And then, of course, the Cubs are expected to be major players for free agent pitching and could perhaps add two hurlers this offseason. Despite the wide variance in Wood’s ERAs, he’s essentially a back-end lefty who can soak up innings. That makes him useful, but perhaps not for the 2015 Cubs, who will have plenty of options who are either better or who have more upside.
Then, of course, there’s Wood’s salary. The Frontline client’s strong 2013 numbers set a relatively high baseline for his salaries during his arbitration years, and he’s projected to make $5.5MM in 2015. Many teams would likely see $5.5MM as more than Wood is worth, so it’s doubtful he has much trade value. Teams like the Braves, Diamondbacks, Phillies, Rangers, Twins or White Sox could have interest in Wood, but perhaps not so much that they’re willing to give up $5.5MM and trade talent to get him, particularly not so early in the offseason.
One factor working against Wood is that the free agent market for pitching is rather strong, particularly in comparison with the rest of the market. The non-tender deadline is December 2, and plenty of higher-upside arms will surely remain on the free agent market then. The most likely outcome, therefore, might be that the Cubs non-tender Wood, and he signs elsewhere later in the offseason.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Watching him pitch over the course of this year his cutter just wasn’t very effective, especially against right handed hitters. If the Cubs don’t sign two starters who are locks for the rotation I’d rather see them hang onto Wood and let Bosio try and work his magic. Worst case scenario you can give Wood away for salary relief or take a shot at him being able to turn into a James Russell type of reliever. That would at least salvage some value out of a lost 5-6MM year.
I never really thought he was that good to begin with, but with that being said, I wouldn’t mind giving him a chance on the south side assuming he could be had for pretty cheap…
He’s not worth the estimated 5.5M next year. I’d let him go.
Honestly, he’s gone probably gets released or traded during winter meetings. I think the rotation will look like this
SP- Lester
SP- Arrieta
SP- Peavy
SP- Wada
SP- Hendriks
I’d say the chance that he’s released is pretty close to zero. Most teams need 7 or 8 starters in a season as well.
no thanks on Peavy.
This might be nitpicky, but Travis Wood is an example of a pitcher for whom you cannot use xFIP. xFIP assumes league average homerun rate, Travis Wood has significantly lower than average career homerun rates, and has maintained this for all but one of his seasons. Even this year, which was the second highest homerun rate of his career, he is very significantly below average. He gives up 20% fewer home runs than an average pitcher per flyball. And in three of his five seasons, he’s given up 30-40% fewer.
xFIP will always under value him for this reason, you cannot use xFIP with this pitcher. It only applies to pitchers with average homerun rates. I like xFIP, too. It is then econd best predictor of future performance, behind SIERA, but you can’t use it here. It’s kinda like how some people are allergic to penicillin. It might be the best treatment available, but if your patient is allergic, you just can’t use it.
Use what you want. It doesn’t change the fact that he gave up a ton of runs and had a poor season.
If the Cubs sign one pitcher, which they likely will, they could fill out two whole starting rotations of pitchers who have successfully pitched in the big leagues (to an extent) or are undoubtedly ready for the big leagues (Jokisch).
He has slightly more value to an NL team as he’s a pretty good hitting pitcher (.700 OPS.)
Guess i haven’t seen Wood pitch as much as Cubs fans, but I would take him in a Pirates rotation tomorrow. I have no doubt that Ray Searage can help him to become more effective and given the choice of him or Jeff Locke, well, it’s a no brainer at a bargain price.
Why would the Sox be interested unless he came out of the bullpen. He’s not a better pitcher than our fourth starting lefthander. Can he be a loogy?
There is 1% chance he gets non-tendered
I don’t think its enough that high. He’s not a top end of the rotation guy, but he’s a middle to back end of the rotation innings eater who can give you a gem once in a while.
Good thing they never extended him.
won’t be hard to trade him for a lottery ticket prospect if we sign enough FAs that he’s bumped from the rotation. doubt very much that he gets released.
Those who actually watched Wood pitch in 2014 should have noticed a huge difference — he just could not locate that cutter to right handed hitters. In 2013, the cutter had consistent movement inside to righties, inducing weak contact. In 2014, the cutter too often got the heart of the plate, and was walloped. Sometimes direct observation can tell you something that statistics cannot.
T Wood for Carlos Ruiz and cash. Phillies need pitching, Cubs just lost out on Martin.
It’s clear from reading the comments there’s a lot of fans that don’t understand how the arbitration process works.