The Orioles and Nick Markakis have been discussing a new contract in the range of four years for the free agent outfielder, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports. “The two sides have been talking for weeks” about a new deal, and Kubatko believes the two sides will reach an agreement to keep Markakis in Baltimore. Kubatko thinks a deal will come “in the not-too-distant future,” though the Orioles’ exclusive negotiating window with Markakis and all their free agents ends at 11pm CT on Monday night.
After signing J.J. Hardy to an extension before the start of the ALCS, it would be quite a coup for the O’s if they were able to lock up another of their major in-house free agents before letting him hit the open market. MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently predicted that Markakis (as long as the O’s didn’t tag him with a qualifying offer) would find a four-year, $48MM deal this winter, so the reported deal length would seem to be a fit, provided that the two sides can agree on the finances.
Baltimore has already declined its half of Markakis’ $17.5MM mutual option for 2015, which was something of a surprising move since it cost the team a $2MM buyout; the O’s could’ve simply exercised their side of the option since Markakis was clearly going to decline his side in order to hit the open market. Declining the option could make more sense, however, if the Orioles thought they were close to a new contract anyways, making that $2MM almost a kind of makeshift signing bonus.
I can’t think of a word for how surprised I’ll be if Markakis doesn’t resign with the O’s.
Astounschokbewilderfuddled.
Nope. That doesn’t do it justice.
For 4 years, they better be paying him 5 million per.
I’d say it’ll be 10 million AAV, that seems fair for both parties.
He’s had a combined 1.8 WAR the last 2 years. 10 million is basically his market value relative to his production. That’s fair for Markakis, but horrible for the O’s.
Why shouldn’t he get market value?
$10M is the approximate market value for his 1.8 combined WAR in the 2013/2014 seasons. Hence, $5M AAV would be fair. That’s what the OP was getting at.
His rWAR year-by-year for the last 5 seasons is 2.3, 2.5, 1.7 (in 104 games), -0.3, 2.1. Isn’t it more than a little disingenuous to proclaim him a 0.9 WAR per season player? Do you truly think that he would only get $5 million a year on the open market or that he would only deserve that much?
He should. But the O’s shouldn’t be paying market value for a barely 2 WAR player. Every team needs their investment to go towards a certain level of production. A team like the Yankees don’t need great returns. If it costs 200 million worth of WAR to make the playoffs, the Yankees can afford to just pay 200 million. A team like Oakland needs a huge return on their investment, because they can’t afford to pay 200 million. The Orioles are somewhere in the middle. You sign Markakis for 4 years, you are hoping he remains an average player for those 4 years. That is the best case scenario. That’s a bad investment for the Orioles. It would be like signing a 1 WAR player. Is the player worth 6 million? Yes. But at the market price, you aren’t getting much production, let alone value. You’d be better off just bringing up a AAAA type player and paying him 500k, because he can probably give you 1 WAR, or at least something close to it. Same thing with Markakis. At 10 million for a 2 WAR season, you aren’t really getting any excess value, and not a lot of production. You’re better off bringing up a AAAA player at 500k, and investing the money in a situation that has a better chance for a return on your investment.
By this logic no mid-market team or smaller should ever sign a free agent because he is by definition, making market value. You get excess value from your players that aren’t yet eligible for free agency and you hope to get what you paid for from the players that you paid free agent prices for. Players like Machado and Tillman are subsidizing the contracts of Markakis and Jones. That is simply how it works. Of course every team would prefer to field 25 players who are not yet eligible for free agency but that isn’t possible. No team can hope to get excess value out of free agency. Ideally the Orioles would have already developed a player who could step in and match Markakis’ production at the end of his contract, but that didn’t happen.
No, there is a case for mid-market teams to sign players for market value that either: 1. fill the final void on their roster. 2. have upside.
The problem with Markakis is he has NO upside. You sign Markakis, you are HOPING he remains a 2 WAR player for the length of the contract. That’s it. That’s the best case scenario. One year from now, Markakis is just barely average. Four years from now, Markakis is still just barely average. That’s what you are praying for. That’s a horrible investment for a team like the Orioles.
And do you honestly think the Orioles don’t have a player that can produce something close to a 2 WAR season for significantly less? If not, the future is BLEAK. Which they of course do. David Lough, coming off a concussion, produced a 1.6 WAR in a LOT fewer games for just 500k.
Where I disagree with you is the idea that ANY player can reach free agency and still have upside. In order to reach free agency you have to be 6+ years into your MLB career, how can there still be upside at that point in a player’s career?
If teams could produce more 2-ish WAR players for significantly less then the price of a win on the free agent market wouldn’t be $6 million. That is why the market price is what it is.
You don’t think there aren’t teams that will pay Billy Butler market value with the idea that he has the upside to be 2012 Butler again? Masterson? JD Drew? Those are the players it makes sense for the A’s of the World to take chances on in the FA market. Players coming off injury seasons, players that haven’t been used properly, players you see something in their game that needs to be tweaked, etc.
Those types of players – and I believe you mean Stephen, not JD – are rarely paid their actual market value, largely because it’s very difficult to determine what their market value *is*. Oakland wouldn’t pay market value for them. Oakland can almost never pay market value for their players. Masterson could rebound, but 12 MM for Masterson isn’t taking a flyer on him. If he doesn’t rebound, it’s a severe overpay. You’re paying him based on the assumption he will rebound, not paying him for his 2014 production at market value and hoping for a surplus.
Your market value is whatever the market will pay you.
So there’s no such thing as an overpay then if one team will outspend the rest. Overpays don’t exist in this universe. Your market value should be based on your value to the team in all facets – production, other revenue, team needs, etc. – in conjunction with the overall trends of the market. The contract a player eventually gets usually represents the highest percentile of the market, the absolute maximum the market is willing to spend for the player. It’s not normally his actual market value, because a team will often overpay to secure the services.
Yeah, the market rates is always whatever the market will allow. It just doesn’t make sense for every team to pay the market rate for every player. For certain teams, the market rate has to come with a higher potential reward compared to other players.
Carlos Gomez, had he reached free agency, is the perfect example of a player with remaining upside. He came up early – age 21 – and struggled for awhile in the beginning before figuring it out as he approached free agency. He took a 3/24 extension that looks very silly on his part after putting up more than 12 WAR in 2013-2014.
10 MM for 2 WAR is actually below market-value. 12 MM is closer to 2 WAR value right now, maybe even more. There’s legitimate value in getting 5 MM per win, even for Baltimore. It’s more about the fact that Nick Markakis might not even be a 2-WAR player in 2015, much less in 2018. On a four-year term, I’m more comfortable with 32-35 MM for Markakis.
I’m not comfortable with a 4 year term. For 2015-16 I’d be comfortable. He becomes a 5/10 player next year. Would anyone want a slightly above average player on the other side of 30 that also has an unmovable contract? They are already stuck with the Ubaldo contract. The Orioles can’t start piling up bad investments. And what you said about players like Tillman & Machado subsidizing is true but it won’t be for long. Tillman is in his 1st year of Arbitration this year along with healthy raises to Britton,Norris & Pearce. And Machado,Schoop & Gausman in the near future to deal with. Angelos might raise payroll but he isn’t raising it to 170+. Is some combination of De Aza, Lough, Pearce & Say Player X that much worse then Markakis? I don’t think so.
People outside the Orioles’ fan base generally underestimate Markakis’ value to the Orioles. I think he is worth 4/48.
Think for a moment how much of a better outfielder they could get for that kind of money.
Or people inside the fan base way overestimate his value. Is a 2 WAR 31 year old free agent really worth a 4 year commitment at that price?
People inside the fan base will hate this deal too. I doubt one can find an O’s message board or forum where even half the people want Markakis back, let alone for 4 years.
He seems like he worth more like a 3/26mil deal that Corey Hart signed in 2010. I just don’t see the value in a bad defender over 30. I must be missing something.
he is a good defender.
He’s bad. He was a little better this past year, but still not good, just not as bad.
All y’all are too obsessed with stats, wow… If you actually watched games, you’d know how many times he runs into the fencing or lays himself across’d the who field etc. etc., there’s no stat for outstanding play. Watch baseball sometimes.
Those plays are probably made routinely by other players…not a great argument. Using that mind set Khris Davis is a Gold Glover.
Khris Davis actually is a pretty good fielder. Just saying..
No he is not. I saw that he was 3rd in defensive runs saved in LF and had a long chuckle. He is not good at all. His routes are bad, his range is average at best, and he probably has the worst OF arm in MLB. He has a quick first step , but to be ranked #1 in LF for range is head scratching…now way.
He is better than the Brewers were expecting, but still hurts them on defense.
Khris Davis ranked 17th in MLB in DRS amongst leftfielders with a minimum of 100 innings there, at +5. He ranked 24th in MLB in UZR amongst leftfielder with a minimum of 100 innings there, at +3.1. There were 93 leftfielders with 100+ innings, of which 45 were average or better and 48 were below average in UZR, and 50 were average or better in DRS and 43 were below average. Davis isn’t spectacular out there, but they very stats you’re citing – except dWAR, because, Total Zone… – support him as not being an albatross, mainly because of what he does when he gets to the balls. It’s similar to Markakis, but with better range than Markakis, really.
I agree he isn’t a disaster but I do not think his stats are that good. His arm alone costs the Brewers so many runs. It’s scary when a guy with average speed is making it home easy on a shallow sac fly. Every team knows Khris Davis is pretty bad with the ball.
Catching the ball he is reliable…anything else yikes.
I’ve seen more than enough O’s games, trust me. Watching Markakis try to get to balls is painful to watch. He has to cheat to the gap, which just exposes the line. He dives more than every player in the O’s outfield. You think it’s just because he is so great, but it’s because he is so slow he can’t get to the balls without having to make that last second drive. His great glove and arm helps soften the blow from his lack of range, but don’t kid yourself. Just watching him, forget the stats, just watching him, he is bad.
So according to your argument, Ben Revere is a glove glover. Revere is terrible in the outfield. He dives to make up for his poor judgement and routes in the outfield.
More dives and collisions with fencing = better defender.
Yeah, loving that logic.
I knew Khris Davis and Ryan Braun were the best corner outfielders in MLB!
I do watch games. Every baseball fan watches games. To assume that because we like stats, we do not watch games is absolutely ridiculous. If Nick Markakis could get to those balls without having to make the play look difficult, Nick Markakis might actually be a consistently good fielder. That Markakis puts in 110% effort isn’t the question here. He obviously tries his best, but I can’t give Markakis good-guy points if his ability defensively has waned as he’s gotten older. He still has a good arm and doesn’t make a ton of errors, but his range has plummeted as he’s entered his late 20s and now gotten to 30. This isn’t rocket science. It’s simply observation.
running into the fence, and laying on the field is what makes a good defender?
They may look good, but that doesn’t tell us all that much. Maybe he could have avoided the fence running if he actually got there faster, and positioned himself right.
I know dWAR can vary but a guy with a yearly dWAR averaging -1 is not a good defender. He may have some good aspect but he obviously has some major holes.
And at his age all it takes is one leg injury and he becomes a total liability in the OF. 4/48 or whatever this deal is expected to be is not a good investment for that talent at that age.
don’t look at war for defensive abilities
I disagree, to an extent. B-ref’s dWAR is terrible, but I don’t think Defensive Runs Saved and UZR are terrible, if used correctly.
His arm makes up for his lack of range. His defense is fading by the day.
Nothing makes up for lack of range. Some things help soften the damage, but nothing makes up for it. Range is the most important aspect of an outfielder.
Oh you are 100% correct. I was just trying to say his arm hides the fact he has no range in most Oriole fans eyes. 90% of the people I talk to about him his “great” arm is always the 1st thing they mention. I should of typed that out a little clearer.
Markakis is an awful defender. Hasn’t been positive WAR defensively since 2008. -4.7 dWAR in his career. He isn’t a good defender
you don’t watch O’s games then he makes sliding and diving catches and has an awesome arm
He only makes diving catches because his horrible routes to the ball and bad judgement off the bat. Doesn’t matter how good his throwing arm is, that will diminish over the suggested 4 year deal.
have to disagree with you. The bad fielders in the outfield are people like Parmelee Gattis and Trumbo
It’s possible, but that basically takes them out of Cruz market I believe. They have a lot of arbitration to go through and their payroll could potentially hit $120MM. Angelos has never given the vibe that he wanted this team to cost a lot of money. I just can’t see him green lighting this team having a payroll of $150MM+.
i agree having a 150 million dollar payroll with no clear cut ace # 1on the staff is crazy
Not really surprising they declined their half of that option.
This screams mistake to me.
Yea. He is a perfectly fine player, but 31 year old at his level of talent I wouldn’t go 4 years on. He does everything fine, but he does nothing really well. I would be fine having him, but $50MM should be major pieces, not this.
3 tops.
Let someone else overspend for mediocrity. 2/18 and not a penny more. He is a safe investment at that price. You are asking for disaster if you go 4 years for him.
While not the prototypical leadoff hitter he does fill the void nicely and that is pretty hard to replace. Especially as our team sits at the moment.
Forget prototypical leadoff guy, he isnt’ even a prototypical RFer.
Naturally you expect power from RF but thankfully we generate that from other positions. He makes all the routine plays out there. Yeah, some guys get to a lot of balls that Nick doesn’t but could be worse.
But it can’t really be worse at that price. It could be worse, but you’d only be paying about 500k for that worse, so you’re actually making out better as a team.
Thus you shouldn’t be going 4 years at $10MM+ for him. He is a fine player, but you shouldn’t have to pay a ton for that.
Yah it could be worse…you couldd have him for his 31-35 year old seasons.
I find the idea of committing four year to Nick Markakis significantly more befuddling than string theory.
Hard to imagine him anywhere else
I predict 4 years $45 million.
You can’t give him a 4 year deal if you want Cruz too. Markakis is going to have to DH sooner or later with his awful defense. -4.7 dWAR for his career, hasn’t been replacement level defensively since 2008.
Awful defense = 2 errors in his last 561 games played
Basing an OFers defense on errors…can’t evaluate a player any worse.
Range. Range. Range. Range. Nobody is claiming he’s bad at preventing errors. When Nick Markakis gets to a ball, he is very, very good. He has a great arm and a good actual glove. Unfortunately, he is no longer getting to balls at the rates he used to. He’s not a good fielder any more.
Does that factor in his routes to the ball? How about his judgement off the bat? What about his approach to the wall? Errors isn’t everything. Look at his WAR, he isn’t a very good defender.
He is a fine player at 18/2 and that is really pushing it. As an Orioles fan myself I’ve never understood how defended he is by the fan base. His career year was 2008 and he will never come close to that again. Even on some very atrocious Oriole teams he has never been an All Star. He has zero speed. Average power. His defense is fading and will only get worse. A 4 year contract is just throwing money in the trash. Let someone else overspend for mediocrity.
Royals will sign him as a DH if Billy goes to Seattle, or elsewhere. 5 years.
Nick Markakis would be a terrible solution for Kansas City’s DH slot. He isn’t a good enough hitter to DH. He’d be a below average DH. Kansas City has other solutions for DH if Butler walks. Cheaper options with less long-term commitment. Adam Dunn is a better hitter, if he is willing to play another season. Morales might be a better hitter going forward, even. Mark Reynolds is available I believe and is probably a better hitter. Markakis’ ceiling is probably a 105 wRC+ or so. The last three years, Adam Dunn has wRC+s of 115, 105 and 112. Dunn wouldn’t take a commitment of more than a year and at a lot less than Markakis’ AAV. Markakis might be a bad fielder, but he isn’t bad enough to justify DHing him quite yet, and he isn’t a good enough hitter to DH full-time right now.
Thanks for that, I just concluded the same thing, and he cannot play RF in Kauffman. He’s not an option.
If Aoki walks, Kansas City should just install Dyson in CF and move Cain to RF. I think Dyson hits enough to justify his phenomenal glove, and Cain’s established enough to play RF. Gordon is entrenched in LF, so they just need a hitter to DH then. The five infield positions are set, and parts of the rotation are set, though they need to replace James Shields’ production if Shields walks.
It was absolutely not clear that Nick Markakis would decline his side of the option. In fact, I think Markakis would have been crazy to turn down 17.5 MM in that scenario.
Surprised at this one, he’s pretty “meh”
You should want to pay him at least close what he may asking for .