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Free Agent Profile: Nick Markakis

By Steve Adams | October 16, 2014 at 12:08pm CDT

Orioles right fielder Nick Markakis entered the 2014 season with a lot to prove coming off the worst season of his pro career in 2013, and he was able to reestablish a significant amount of value heading into what will likely be his first venture into the free agent market. While he does have a mutual option ($17.5MM with a $2MM buyout) — such options are rarely, if ever exercised by both sides — especially when they’re for such a lofty amount.

Strengths/Pros

Throughout his career, Markakis has consistently gotten on base at a strong clip. A lifetime .290/.358/.435 hitter, Markakis has never posted a single-season OBP lower than .329, and he’s never batted below .271, either. His lowest OBP and batting average both came last season on the heels of three 2012 surgeries — one to repair a sports hernia, one to repair a broken hamate bone in his right wrist and the other to repair a broken thumb in his left hand. Markakis performed well after the first two operations — the hernia and the hamate procedures — but the thumb injury ended his season. It’s possible that an injury to his dominant hand, coupled with the effects of the surgery on his right hand left him a bit sapped in that poor 2013 campaign.

Nick  MarkakisThough he does have those three fairly recent surgeries in his history, Markakis has otherwise been one of baseball’s most durable players over the life of his nine-year career. The former first-round pick (seventh overall) has averaged 152 games per season since debuting as a 22-year-old in 2006, topping 160 games five times and 155 or more on seven occasions. Aside from 2012, he’s never been on the disabled list.

As his OBP marks indicate, Markakis walks at a fairly strong clip. He’s never posted a walk rate lower than 7.9 percent in a season and is at 9.3 percent for his career (8.7 percent in 2014). He’s one of the toughest batters in baseball to strike out, as evidenced by a lifetime strikeout rate of 13 percent (11.8 percent in 2014). And, while he doesn’t have the plus power he showed earlier in his career, Markakis has hit 10 or more homers in each season of his career, including 14 this year.

Defensive metrics go back and forth on Markakis’ value in right field, but Ultimate Zone Rating has long been a fan of his strong, accurate arm, and he posted positive marks in both UZR/150 (+5.8) and Defensive Runs Saved (+1) in 2014.

Weaknesses/Cons

As noted, defensive metrics offer a wide range of potential outcomes on Markakis. While he was a plus defender in right field this season and graded as perhaps baseball’s best right fielder back in 2008 (+11 UZR/150, +22 DRS), he’s posted negative marks more often than not in recent years. Perhaps that’s a reflection of the heavy workload he takes on each season, and perhaps the hernia surgery in 2012 impacted some of his glovework, but agent Jamie Murphy of TWC Sports will likely have to deal with some teams that are skeptical of Markakis’ defensive outlook in the tail end of his prime years.

Though he’s a steady contributor in terms of batting average and OBP, Markakis hasn’t hit for power in recent seasons. He was on his way to a solid .174 ISO (slugging percentage minus batting average) in his injury-shortened 2012, but that mark has been nearly cut in half over the previous two campaigns (.097). He’s still a double-digit homer threat, but after routinely hitting about 45 doubles per season earlier in his career, he hit just 51 between 2013 and 2014 combined.

Also clouding the picture is a late-season swoon for Markakis, who struggled mightily for 45-50 games from late July to mid-September. He did recover with a strong 10-game showing to close out the season, but his second half was notably weaker than his first: .288/.351/.395 before the break and .256/.329/.372 following.

Personal

Markakis and his wife, Christina, have three children. Together, the couple launched the Right Side Foundation in 2009 — a nonprofit organization that seeks to better the lives of distressed children in the state of Maryland. Nick and Christina were honored by the Balitmore Sun when they received the Tim Wheatley Award for off-the-field contributions to the community.

Markakis is known as a driven player who will take the field even when he’s not at 100 percent — a fact that is reflected in the number of games he’s played throughout his career.

Market

Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reported yesterday that the Orioles are expected to decline Markakis’ option. I found this to be a moderate surprise, as the team could have picked up its half of the option and assumed that Markakis would decline; players with his track record at his age almost never want to play on a one-year deal, instead preferring a longer commitment even at a lower annual rate. That move would spare the O’s his $2MM buyout and allow them to make a $15.3MM qualifying offer. It’s possible they could still make the QO — the combined total of the QO and the buyout ($17.3MM) would still be less than that of his option — but this seems to suggest that the team isn’t comfortable risking a $17MM+ commitment to Markakis in order to secure a draft pick. If that’s the case, he seems likely to hit the market without draft pick compensation, which is great news for Markakis and his agent.

From a competition standpoint, Markakis is positioned well. Yasmany Tomas is the name generating the most buzz in terms of corner outfield options, but he’s yet to play a game in the Majors. Melky Cabrera is coming off a fine season and is perhaps the most direct competitor. Nelson Cruz has a bigger bat but is more than three years older with more pronounced defensive issues. Some teams will undoubtedly have more interest in making an upside play on someone like Colby Rasmus over a shorter term, but Markakis can rightfully claim that he’s a more consistent contributor. Nori Aoki brings a lighter bat at an older age. Beyond that grouping, Markakis will be competing with aging veterans, many of whom are coming off poor and/or injury-plagued seasons; Alex Rios, Michael Cuddyer, Corey Hart, Mike Morse, Josh Willingham and Torii Hunter are among the alternatives.

Markakis isn’t going to make a cellar-dwelling team into a contender, but he’s the type of bat that an above-average club can look at as one of the final pieces to rounding out a contending roster. His steady batting average and OBP numbers slot are a good fit at the top of a batting order.

If the Yankees are convinced that Alex Rodriguez can play in the field enough to make Carlos Beltran a primary DH, then Markakis could be a right field option there. He’d make a nice replacement option for the Blue Jays in the event that Cabrera signs elsewhere, and the Tigers have some uncertainty in the outfield after Andy Dirks missed the 2014 season and given Hunter’s uncertain status. The Royals will need to replace Aoki if he does not re-sign, and the Mets have a well-documented corner outfield need. Seattle, San Francisco, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati are all in need of corner outfield help as well, and the White Sox would make sense if they want to move on from Dayan Viciedo.

Expected Contract

Markakis has three primary competitors in my opinion: Tomas, Cruz and Cabrera. Beyond that grouping, he can make the case that he’s the next-best bat and a more certain commodity than others on what is unquestionably a thin market for bats. Players in this age bracket have been targeting at least four-year commitments, and I would expect Markakis to do the same.

The late-season swoon is a strike against Markakis, but the fact that he can likely come without a draft pick attached makes him an appealing alternative to Cruz and Cabrera, and he will of course be significantly less expensive than Tomas.

I still think there’s at least a chance that Markakis ends up with a QO, and if that’s the case, I’d peg him for a three-year, $39MM contract.

However, if he’s hitting the open market without draft pick compensation attached, I do think that’s enough to get him to four years, albeit at a slightly lesser AAV. Assuming there’s no QO in play, I’m projecting a four-year, $48MM contract in a weak market for hitters.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2014-15 Free Agent Profiles Baltimore Orioles MLBTR Originals Newsstand Nick Markakis

NL East Links: Mets, Markakis, Phillies, Braves
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76 Comments

  1. Vandals Took The Handles

    11 years ago

    This is a guy perfect for the Giants – the Al Davis Raiders of MLB.

    Past his prime. Knows how to play the game. Can help a team win. A solid veteran ballplayer.

    Just Win, Baby!

    Reply
    • Melvin Mendoza, Jr.

      11 years ago

      That’s not Al Davis at all though. Al Davis would say:

      “Nick Markakis is a great playa. I timed his 40 myself. A great playa….”

      Then sign him to a 25 year $600m contract.

      Reply
      • Unassisted Triple Play

        11 years ago

        25/600 seems like a bargain.

        Reply
      • Vandals Took The Handles

        11 years ago

        Al lost it when he got older. But I’d check his record out before he had problems with Marcus Allen – which started the downslide.

        The Giants are on the verge of going to their 3rd WS in 5 years. That is amazing in MLB’s “parity” climate. They don’t do it with big stars that put up sizzling numbers, they do it with team leaders and solid players that play fundamental baseball, contributing top winning. I read a Cardinal player last year that was traded to them say he had never played in an organization like that. All he had to do was his job. Didn’t have to carry the team, and no one else did. Markakis would fit well with the Giants….or Cardinals…or Royals….or back to the Orioles.

        Reply
      • Real_American78

        11 years ago

        then cut him and force him to sue the team for the salary he’s owed.

        Reply
  2. Unassisted Triple Play

    11 years ago

    I’ve always like Nick Markakis. He is tough as nails at the dish. I know this is a long shot, but I would love for my Minnesota Twins to sign this guy. He gives Maueresque at-bats where having two strikes is no big deal and his veteren presence will be welcome on a team of young up and comers.

    Reply
    • Vandals Took The Handles

      11 years ago

      He would fit well there. But there are 2 problems…

      1. As Steve has pointed out in his chats, the Twins badly need a strong defensive CF – or at least until Bryan Buxton is ready to play at the ML level.

      2. They may have exhausted the budget to bring in veteran guidance by overpaying Hughes and Nolasco, as well as extending Kurt Suzuki.

      Reply
      • erikt

        11 years ago

        Overpaying Phil Hughes? He was arguably the best FA signing last offseason

        Reply
        • Vandals Took The Handles

          11 years ago

          And at the time he was over payed.

          Reply
          • erikt

            11 years ago

            $8m a year for Hughes even before this year happened wasn’t an overpayment. It wasn’t a great deal, but it wasn’t an overpayment

            Reply
            • Vandals Took The Handles

              11 years ago

              OK.

              But with pitchers in demand, who else was offering him that sort of money?

              Reply
              • erikt

                11 years ago

                Nobody at the time he signed. Everyone was waiting for the shoe to drop on Tanaka.

                Reply
            • paqza

              11 years ago

              And it looks excellent now.

              Reply
          • Metsfan93

            11 years ago

            No, he wasn’t. Everybody understood that asking an under-30 Phil Hughes to produce 24 MM in value over a three-year term where his home ballpark wasn’t Yankee Stadium was an easy task. That contract was at worst a good one from the get-go.

            Reply
  3. bobbleheadguru

    11 years ago

    Nick Markakis has the same 2014 fWAR as 38 year old Torii Hunter in 2013 (2.5). Better fielder, worse batter.

    He is neither good not bad. He just IS. I think you can find that “moderately adequate performance player” for less than $12MM/season.

    Reply
    • LazerTown

      11 years ago

      right. I certainly think he will find a job, I just don’t see a team spending $48MM to get him.

      Reply
    • Steve Adams

      11 years ago

      There are always value plays on the free agent market, and there are always guys that sign for mid-range salaries that wind up looking like bargains (Morneau, Hughes, etc.). Doesn’t stop guys from getting paid. I saw people suggesting 3/24 for Markakis yesterday in the post on his option being declined, and that’s beyond low for me. I’m not writing what I’d offer as a GM — I’m writing what I think someone else will eventually. Teams are going to spend their money somewhere this offseason. Doesn’t have to be a great investment, doesn’t have to look good in 2-3 years, but they’re going to spend it.

      Reply
      • bobbleheadguru

        11 years ago

        Thanks for the personal response Steve!

        Reply
        • Steve Adams

          11 years ago

          Anytime. I knew this profile would get killed after seeing comments in yesterday’s post on his option being declined, but I can tell you I’ve spent more than a week debating what my ultimate call was going to be and a lot of thought went into it. I don’t mind defending my stance when people are cordial and civilized in their disagreement. I love our loyal and passionate commenters at MLBTR, and part of the fun of these profiles is this part right here. Feel free to pile it on if I miss wildly. Can’t miss as badly as I did on Ervin last year! Ha.

          Reply
          • bobbleheadguru

            11 years ago

            The editorial content is a big reason why I LOVE this site.

            Thanks again.

            Can’t wait to see the analysis for Scherzer and VMART.

            Reply
            • UK Tiger

              11 years ago

              Couldnt agree more.

              Brilliantly open, honest, refreshing response from Steve, and the way the editors are happy to interact with general populace on here is why it appeals and why it will continue to have longevity.

              Reply
  4. LazerTown

    11 years ago

    I honestly can’t see $48MM/4. Maybe that aav on a shorter deal, but for what Markakis is I can’t see someone going that crazy to get him. He has topped 2 war once in the last 4 years. He certainly is someone that can get a job, but I don’t know why anyone would go that level commitment for him.

    Corner outfielders with no power and not Ichiro have trouble getting paid.

    Reply
  5. David Sherzer

    11 years ago

    Why would he get more per year with a QO attached than without?

    Reply
    • Steve Adams

      11 years ago

      Teams are more reluctant to give out the extra year than the extra million or two on a shorter deal. If clubs are valuing him in the $13MM range on a three-year deal, a club can sweeten the offer by adding an extra year at a lower rate — in this example basically tacking on an extra year at $9MM — to try to get a deal done.

      Cleveland did that with Victorino two years ago, reportedly offering 4/44 before he took 3/39 from Boston. I’d imagine the same happened with Jason Vargas last winter. I’m sure $8MM wasn’t the highest AAV he was offered, but $32MM was almost certainly the largest guarantee. In the end, a lot of guys will take the bigger guarantee even if it’s sacrificing some AAV.

      Reply
      • David Sherzer

        11 years ago

        Got it. Thanks for the really thorough article and helpful response. Appreciate it.

        Reply
  6. Eric D.

    11 years ago

    That’s a huge over pay for Markakis. After all this guy is just one year removed from a 0 WAR season (in 160 games)

    Reply
    • paqza

      11 years ago

      Due to injuries, but he’s been durable before and after.

      Reply
      • Metsfan93

        11 years ago

        If you mean his performance suffered due to the injuries, okay. But if you mean that he was only a 0 WAR player because he lost some durability due to his injury, we’ll have to disagree. He posted a 700 PA- season in 2013. 2012 was the one where he missed time, though he was effective when he played that year (126 wRC+). The bottom line is he’s now going to turn 31 in a month and has 4 fWAR in the last three seasons over just under 1900 PA. He’s a decent ballplayer, but average at best.

        Reply
        • paqza

          11 years ago

          I agree with you that he isn’t the answer the Mets need.

          Reply
        • OhthePossibilities

          11 years ago

          Yes, his performance dropped in 2013 because of the lingering effects of the 2012 injuries. He noted that he was unable to train properly in that offseason and he did indeed look like a weaker player (strength wise) in 2013 than he did this year.

          Reply
          • Metsfan93

            11 years ago

            That’s certainly something I’d consider but given he was only average this year and it’s the first time he’s crossed the 2-win threshold since 2010, I’m still hesitant to believe he’s anything more than an average player at best. I still wouldn’t pay him more than 12 MM after the first year. a 12 MM, 9 MM, 7 MM, 5 MM four-year deal (33 MM total) could work for me, or a 3/28 deal using the first three years.

            Reply
            • OhthePossibilities

              11 years ago

              It’s not a matter of what you or I would pay. We aren’t GMs. The people who are routinely overspend on players compared to what people in comment sections believe they are worth.

              Reply
  7. DarthMurph

    11 years ago

    4/48 Steve?!?!? Last year as a whole MLBTR overestimated the mid-tier market by a wide margin which hasn’t been reflected in this years predications.

    Reply
    • bobbleheadguru

      11 years ago

      Agree. If VMART is projected to get 3/48 or 4/60, how can Markakis get 4/48?

      Reply
      • Steve Adams

        11 years ago

        Because Markakis is five years younger and has an actual position.

        Reply
        • Jim Johnson

          11 years ago

          Markakis is the oldest 30 year old in baseball.

          Reply
      • rct 2

        11 years ago

        Really an apples to oranges comparison. Markakis is younger and should get a longer deal, but Martinez is a better player and should get a higher AAV.

        Reply
    • LazerTown

      11 years ago

      Agree. $48MM takes at least some bidding war to get to. Sure he is young and all, and he is a fine enough player. He isn’t far enough ahead anyone else though, and corner outfielders are easy to replace. At 3B and ok enough defense I could see it, but as a right fielder it’s tough.

      Reply
      • bobbleheadguru

        11 years ago

        Agree, at those dollars, Headley would be a much better investment, even if Headley bats .240.

        Reply
    • Steve Adams

      11 years ago

      We overestimated the mid-tier market? Predictions:

      Jhonny Peralta: 3/36
      Curtis Granderson: 3/45
      Justin Morneau: 1/7
      Omar Infante: 3/25
      James Loney: 2/16

      We overshot Cruz, Ervin, etc. — the guys who set out with outlandish expectations that were so far gone that teams just flat out ignored them. Admitted, but I don’t think Markakis falls into that category.

      I debated 4/44, and I won’t be shocked at 3/39, but we go through this every year with free agent sticker shock. For fun, I went back and read the comments today on our post that Peralta was seeking $56MM. People were appalled.

      If it’s high, it’s high — but there are no bats this offseason, and Markakis is going to be the best outfield bat without a QO attached that brings any form of certainty. It’s not like I’ll shy away from it if I’m wrong. I have zero problem owning those mistakes, but I was confident enough to go 3/39 with a QO — and following last night’s indications that he may not have a QO, I had to adjust upward.

      Reply
      • DarthMurph

        11 years ago

        4/48 is still a significant contract that requires multiple teams to get seriously involved in a guy who hovers dangerously close to replacement level.

        Rios, Rasmus, Cuddyer, Aoki, and Willingham are somewhat comparable players who offer similar WAR projections that will cost significantly less than that. There’s also Suzuki and Hunter, which aren’t great options but are again worth considering when a 50 million dollar Markakis is the alternative. Plus a trade market that will have some decent options.

        I just can’t see a market developing for that much money. Once Tomas and Cabrera are off the table, Markakis looks appealing, but I just don’t see the demand there with so many other cheaper alternatives that offer similar upsides at a fraction of the cost.

        Reply
        • Steve Adams

          11 years ago

          It’s significant, but looking back at previous offseasons, you’re telling me you can’t see a team consider Markakis a two-win player for the next four years (or even the next three) and pay him at that rate? Again, I’m not saying I go 4/48 on him, but some team’s going to pay him more than most people are willing to consider possible at this point. Maybe it’s 3/39 even without the QO, but the notion that there aren’t teams who will view him as a $12-13MM player is incorrect to me.

          Also, looking at the alternatives you listed: Willingham sounds like he’s retiring; Suzuki, Hunter, Rios and Rasmus *were* replacement level (or close) in 2014; Cuddyer played 49 games. Any could end up a better investment than Markakis, no dispute from me. But some contending clubs will look upon Markakis with more certainty.

          With this profile more than any other, I knew I’d get killed on the prediction. I don’t think I’ll have greater backlash on any that are left in the queue for me, but that’s not something I can let dissuade me.

          If Markakis signs for 3/30 Rev, you can be the first to comment (and realistically, you’ll probably be one of them! haha) and say, “How ’bout that prediction now, Steve?” I’ll happily own it. It’s part of the risk and part of the fun of doing these.

          Reply
          • DarthMurph

            11 years ago

            I’m just not seeing any teams desperate enough to pony up 4/48 for him.

            No to the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, Mariners, Cardinals, Royals, A’s, Pirates, Nationals, Blue Jays, Giants and Angels on that high an AAV. Highly unlikely for the Tigers and the Rangers. That covers the contenders and the big spenders. Who knows about the Phillies.

            Players like Crawford (plus money), Victorino, and Byrd are going to be available. Couple that with the albeit stinky options I mentioned in my other post, I’m just not seeing a bidding war for this guy. Teams desperate for hitting with expendable money will likely look elsewhere because Markakis isn’t really a big difference maker.

            I will gladly eat crow if I’m wrong and I hope you know I have the utmost respect for the work that you and the rest of the staff do here.

            Reply
      • Metsfan93

        11 years ago

        You were confident Markakis would have been able to secure 3/39 with a QO? Markakis is the fourth best free agent outfielder, behind Cruz, Tomas, and Melky, according to your predictions. Two years ago, the FA outfielders in the MLBtr top-50 were Hamilton, Bourn, Upton, Swisher, Pagan, Victorino, Cabrera, and Hunter and they signed for, respectively, 125 MM, 48 MM, 75 MM, 56 MM, 40 MM, 39 MM, 16 MM and 26 MM. All were coming off of 2.9+ fWAR seasons, and yet only four reached 48 MM. Hamilton was coming off of a 4.2-win year with 43 HR. Bourn had a 6.1-win walk year with 42 SB and a lot of defensive value. Upton was 28 and coming off of a 3.1-win walk year with 28 HR. Swisher was coming off of a 3.8-win walk year with 24 HR. Hunter had a 5-win walk year, Pagan and Melky had 4.5-win walk years, and Victorino had a 2.9-win walk year and fit Boston’s short-term-deal plan perfectly. All of these outfielders were superior to Markakis and yet only four reached the 48 MM plateau or higher. If Markakis’ performance isn’t worthy of 48 MM, teams aren’t going to throw money at him just to do so.

        Reply
  8. Metsfan93

    11 years ago

    Player A: 8.0 fWAR, 2013-2014. 600 PA @ 114 wRC+ followed by 531 PA @ 103 wRC+. +9.2 and +21.6 DEF ratings. Will turn 31 in May of 2015.

    Player B: 2.5 fWAR, 2013-2014. 700 PA @ 88 wRC+ followed by 710 PA @ 106 wRC+. -14.1 and -2.5 DEF ratings. Will turn 31 in November of 2014.

    Player A: 4-year, 48 MM predicted MLBtr contract.

    Player B: 4-year, 48 MM predicted MLBtr contract.

    Either we’re overrating Nick Markakis or underrating Chase Headley.

    Reply
    • erikt

      11 years ago

      Let’s throw Player C in there as well:

      1.7 fWAR from 2013-2014. 372 PA at 86 wRC+ followed by 621 at 125 wRC+. -11.5 and -12.1 DEF ratings. Will turn 31 in August of 2015.

      5 year, 66.25 MM predicted MLBtr contract.

      Melky may be even more overrated.

      Reply
      • Steve Adams

        11 years ago

        A lot of people are going to be willing to overlook Melky’s 2013 numbers given the spinal tumor. He has his warts, but the QO and PED concern will be bigger issues than his 2013 numbers.

        Reply
        • Metsfan93

          11 years ago

          They’re not simply going to ignore 2013, though. Melky is nowhere near the player Jhonny Peralta was either in Peralta’s walk year, two years leading into free agency, three years leading in, etc. Melky’s only two years that could come close to warranting a 66 MM guarantee were the two year immediately before his PED suspension. Peralta was a valuable defender and has always been a steady hitter from the time he came into the league, plus had a unique set of circumstances which lead to him getting 53 MM – a contending team with one weakness and payroll flexibility for just 2014, who wouldn’t sign a free agent linked to QO. The Cardinals wouldn’t have signed Melky, all other things equal. Melky doesn’t have a lot of the positives Peralta had, but he has all the negatives Peralta had plus others. We’ll see where Melky eventually lands. I don’t think you’re too far off on AAV, but for several years less. I think 3/39 is most likely for Melky.

          Reply
  9. Dock_Elvis

    11 years ago

    I’m linking every left handed bat, including Ted Williams, to the White Sox this winter. Prediction by over compensation I call it.

    Reply
    • Lefty_Orioles_Fan

      11 years ago

      Well, I am raising your Ted Williams with Stan ‘The Man’ Musial!
      Plus, I hear Fred McGriff is going to make a comeback to get his 500th Hr!

      Reply
  10. Mitch Augustyn

    11 years ago

    Doubtful Markakis leaves Baltimore. Way too young for the Yankees. He loves Baltimore and the city loves him. just cannot pay him more than Adam Jones a 4 time All Star. Hope they can sign him for around $10M a year for 4 years. Halfway to 3000 hits at 30.

    Reply
    • Dynasty22

      11 years ago

      Yes, because the Yankees specifically target old players…

      Reply
    • Bleed_Orange

      11 years ago

      I agree Markakis will probably stay in Baltimore, honestly probably Baltimore’s number one priority now. My guess is he get somewhere in the neighborhood of Hardy’s deal of 3 years at 10-11mil plus a option year.

      Reply
      • Metsfan93

        11 years ago

        I’d be okay if Baltimore re-signed him for 3/27-33 MM. I like Markakis a lot.

        Reply
  11. Mark Eisner

    11 years ago

    He’s not going anywhere. Orioles’ lifer.

    Reply
  12. Metsfan93

    11 years ago

    The Royals don’t need to replace Aoki. The Royals have his replacement in-house: Jarrod Dyson. Signing someone else would be a waste of resources for a team who needs all the money they have.

    Reply
    • Steve Adams

      11 years ago

      I’m a Dyson fan, but they’ve shied away from giving him a full-time job for multiple offseasons now, and he’s been about the same hitter three years in a row.

      KC’s a stretch anyhow since they don’t have the deepest pockets, but I can’t just assume they’re penciling Dyson in next year.

      Reply
      • Metsfan93

        11 years ago

        After how well Dyson has played, I can’t imagine they shy away from it any longer. They just acquired Aoki last year, for this year alone. Dyson would seem to at least have a chance to earn the job in spring training. I’m willing to give GMDM the benefit of the doubt here that he’ll give Dyson a shot.

        Reply
  13. jb226 2

    11 years ago

    I was thinking the Cubs might have some interest. They’ve made some noise this offseason about wanting to sign a veteran outfielder and Markakis would fit the bill. Plus, they’re not necessarily a team in need of power, especially if Kris Bryant is on the club at some point next year.

    However, I don’t see them interested if the bidding gets to four years (even three might be a stretch).

    Reply
  14. macdice

    11 years ago

    Mariners?

    Reply
    • Charlie Burns

      11 years ago

      Possibly, though the Mariners need a bit more power like Cruz (seems unlikely since ownership doesn’t like players linked to PEDs) or VMart over Markakis’ decent bat and good OBP.

      Reply
  15. Frank I. 2

    11 years ago

    White Sox are a great fit
    they have a hole in LF, Viciedo should be moved to DH
    love the fit in that lineup

    Reply
    • brian310

      11 years ago

      And then continue the off season by upgrading from Viciedo

      Reply
      • Mihailo1227

        11 years ago

        I believe they should trade tank, conor and one of our young 2nd baseman, for a starting right hander, or a lefty batter.

        Reply
        • Ralph Esposito

          11 years ago

          I had thought Viciedo, Semien and Beck to Oakland for Samardjizija and Jaso would be a fair trade for both teams. Also, Markakis would play right with Avi moving to left.

          Reply
          • Ralph Esposito

            11 years ago

            Another trade I had thought of was John Danks for Tim Lincecum even up.

            Reply
  16. Metsfan93

    11 years ago

    What are we projecting Norichika Aoki to get in FA? He’s got 5.1 fWAR since 2012 began to Markakis’ 4.0, and both are between 1800 and 1900 PA over that time, with a slight edge to Markakis, while Aoki is projected at 2.0 WAR per 600 PA going forward via Steamer. That’s very similar to Markakis.

    Reply
  17. Damon Bowman

    11 years ago

    Steve, I don’t understand your thinking with Markakis. A single season deal for $17.5 mil is well above Markakis’ market value. He’d probably be much closer to $10-12 mil per year in a 3- or 4-year deal. Why would he decline the opportunity to play a single season at $17.5 mil and boost his numbers and play for another shot at a multi-year deal in 2016? Markakis is completely at home in Baltimore and there isn’t a better ballpark for him to put up solid offensive numbers. I can’t see a single team that would offer him anything north of $13 mil a season so why turn down $17.5 mil for a single season if offered?

    Reply
    • Jim Johnson

      11 years ago

      Why would Markakis’ numbers ever get a boost? At this point in his career, his numbers are only going to decline. He needs to take whatever the best multi-year deal comes his way this off-season.

      Reply
  18. Mikenmn

    11 years ago

    Isn’t the real risk with Markakis that you are signing someone to be just a bit better than average–maybe. Is that really worth 4/48? He has over 1400 PA’s with a slugging percentage of under .400, and he has no speed. He hasn’t been a special player since 2008.

    Reply
    • Jim Johnson

      11 years ago

      It’s not really a “risk,” because that is what you are getting. He’s going to hover around average. That’s what you are banking on, and that is what you are basically going to get. The question is, “is that what you want?” But it’s not really a “risk.”

      Reply
  19. Christopher A. Otto

    11 years ago

    I think your guess is right on the money. Timing is perfect for Markakis, and he might get up to double of what he’s worth.

    Reply
  20. bjsguess

    11 years ago

    Steve’s prediction seems high but I can see someone paying that.

    At the core though we have a corner outfielder who can’t run, has conflicting defensive value, doesn’t hit for a particularly high average and slugs under .400. And yeah – he’s also turning 31.

    I guess he’s better than running a scrub out there but really he’s just a 1.0 – 1.5 WAR right fielder. I wouldn’t want him on my club period as that is a valuable spot and I need a much, much better hitter. BUT, if I had to take him I’d do no more than 1-2 years at $8M annually.

    Reply
  21. Daniel Morairity

    11 years ago

    Rangers need this guy

    Reply
  22. frogger6

    11 years ago

    How about the Brewers sign him and either put him in RF and go ahead with the discussed Braun to 1B move, or put markakis at 1B given his decline in RF recently?
    oh wait….

    “He’s never posted a walk rate lower than 7.9 percent in a season and is at 9.3 percent for his career (8.7 percent in 2014). He’s one of the toughest batters in baseball to strike out, as evidenced by a lifetime strikeout rate of 13 percent”
    Nevermind. Melvin hates hitters like that.

    Reply

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